Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

Synchronizability of EEG-Based Functional Networks in Early Alzheimer's Disease.

Recently graph theory and complex networks have been widely used as a mean to model functionality of the brain. Among different neuroimaging techniques available for constructing the brain functional networks, electroencephalography (EEG) with its high temporal resolution is a useful instrument of the analysis of functional interdependencies between different brain regions. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease, which leads to substantial cognitive decline, and eventually, dementia in aged people. To achieve a deeper insight into the behavior of functional cerebral networks in AD, here we study their synchronizability in 17 newly diagnosed AD patients compared to 17 healthy control subjects at no-task, eyes-closed condition. The cross-correlation of artifact-free EEGs was used to construct brain functional networks. The extracted networks were then tested for their synchronization properties by calculating the eigenratio of the Laplacian matrix of the connection graph, i.e., the largest eigenvalue divided by the second smallest one. In AD patients, we found an increase in the eigenratio, i.e., a decrease in the synchronizability of brain networks across delta, alpha, beta, and gamma EEG frequencies within the wide range of network costs. The finding indicates the destruction of functional brain networks in early AD.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Validation of network communicability metrics for the analysis of brain structural networks.

Computational network analysis provides new methods to analyze the brain's structural organization based on diffusion imaging tractography data. Networks are characterized by global and local metrics that have recently given promising insights into diagnosis and the further understanding of psychiatric and neurologic disorders. Most of these metrics are based on the idea that information in a network flows along the shortest paths. In contrast to this notion, communicability is a broader measure of connectivity which assumes that information could flow along all possible paths between two nodes. In our work, the features of network metrics related to communicability were explored for the first time in the healthy structural brain network. In addition, the sensitivity of such metrics was analysed using simulated lesions to specific nodes and network connections. Results showed advantages of communicability over conventional metrics in detecting densely connected nodes as well as subsets of nodes vulnerable to lesions. In addition, communicability centrality was shown to be widely affected by the lesions and the changes were negatively correlated with the distance from lesion site. In summary, our analysis suggests that communicability metrics that may provide an insight into the integrative properties of the structural brain network and that these metrics may be useful for the analysis of brain networks in the presence of lesions. Nevertheless, the interpretation of communicability is not straightforward; hence these metrics should be used as a supplement to the more standard connectivity network metrics.

E-learning initiatives in forensic interpretation: report on experiences from current projects and outlook

This paper reports on the purpose, design, methodology and target audience of E-learning courses in forensic interpretation offered by the authors since 2010, including practical experiences made throughout the implementation period of this project. This initiative was motivated by the fact that reporting results of forensic examinations in a logically correct and scientifically rigorous way is a daily challenge for any forensic practitioner. Indeed, interpretation of raw data and communication of findings in both written and oral statements are topics where knowledge and applied skills are needed. Although most forensic scientists hold educational records in traditional sciences, only few actually followed full courses that focussed on interpretation issues. Such courses should include foundational principles and methodology - including elements of forensic statistics - for the evaluation of forensic data in a way that is tailored to meet the needs of the criminal justice system. In order to help bridge this gap, the authors' initiative seeks to offer educational opportunities that allow practitioners to acquire knowledge and competence in the current approaches to the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings. These cover, among other aspects, probabilistic reasoning (including Bayesian networks and other methods of forensic statistics, tools and software), case pre-assessment, skills in the oral and written communication of uncertainty, and the development of independence and self-confidence to solve practical inference problems. E-learning was chosen as a general format because it helps to form a trans-institutional online-community of practitioners from varying forensic disciplines and workfield experience such as reporting officers, (chief) scientists, forensic coordinators, but also lawyers who all can interact directly from their personal workplaces without consideration of distances, travel expenses or time schedules. In the authors' experience, the proposed learning initiative supports participants in developing their expertise and skills in forensic interpretation, but also offers an opportunity for the associated institutions and the forensic community to reinforce the development of a harmonized view with regard to interpretation across forensic disciplines, laboratories and judicial systems.

Transition to parenthood: The role of social interaction and endogenous networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

System-level Support for Mobile Ad hoc Communications: an Algorithmic & Practical Approach

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a decentralized and infrastructure-less network. This thesis aims to provide support at the system-level for developers of applications or protocols in such networks. To do this, we propose contributions in both the algorithmic realm and in the practical realm. In the algorithmic realm, we contribute to the field by proposing different context-aware broadcast and multicast algorithms in MANETs, namely six-shot broadcast, six-shot multicast, PLAN-B and ageneric algorithmic approach to optimize the power consumption of existing algorithms. For each algorithm we propose, we compare it to existing algorithms that are either probabilistic or context-aware, and then we evaluate their performance based on simulations. We demonstrate that in some cases, context-aware information, such as location or signal-strength, can improve the effciency. In the practical realm, we propose a testbed framework, namely ManetLab, to implement and to deploy MANET-specific protocols, and to evaluate their performance. This testbed framework aims to increase the accuracy of performance evaluation compared to simulations, while keeping the ease of use offered by the simulators to reproduce a performance evaluation. By evaluating the performance of different probabilistic algorithms with ManetLab, we observe that both simulations and testbeds should be used in a complementary way. In addition to the above original contributions, we also provide two surveys about system-level support for ad hoc communications in order to establish a state of the art. The first is about existing broadcast algorithms and the second is about existing middleware solutions and the way they deal with privacy and especially with location privacy. - Un réseau mobile ad hoc (MANET) est un réseau avec une architecture décentralisée et sans infrastructure. Cette thèse vise à fournir un support adéquat, au niveau système, aux développeurs d'applications ou de protocoles dans de tels réseaux. Dans ce but, nous proposons des contributions à la fois dans le domaine de l'algorithmique et dans celui de la pratique. Nous contribuons au domaine algorithmique en proposant différents algorithmes de diffusion dans les MANETs, algorithmes qui sont sensibles au contexte, à savoir six-shot broadcast,six-shot multicast, PLAN-B ainsi qu'une approche générique permettant d'optimiser la consommation d'énergie de ces algorithmes. Pour chaque algorithme que nous proposons, nous le comparons à des algorithmes existants qui sont soit probabilistes, soit sensibles au contexte, puis nous évaluons leurs performances sur la base de simulations. Nous montrons que, dans certains cas, des informations liées au contexte, telles que la localisation ou l'intensité du signal, peuvent améliorer l'efficience de ces algorithmes. Sur le plan pratique, nous proposons une plateforme logicielle pour la création de bancs d'essai, intitulé ManetLab, permettant d'implémenter, et de déployer des protocoles spécifiques aux MANETs, de sorte à évaluer leur performance. Cet outil logiciel vise à accroître la précision desévaluations de performance comparativement à celles fournies par des simulations, tout en conservant la facilité d'utilisation offerte par les simulateurs pour reproduire uneévaluation de performance. En évaluant les performances de différents algorithmes probabilistes avec ManetLab, nous observons que simulateurs et bancs d'essai doivent être utilisés de manière complémentaire. En plus de ces contributions principales, nous fournissons également deux états de l'art au sujet du support nécessaire pour les communications ad hoc. Le premier porte sur les algorithmes de diffusion existants et le second sur les solutions de type middleware existantes et la façon dont elles traitent de la confidentialité, en particulier celle de la localisation.

Automatic Mapping and Classification of Spatial Environmental Data

The paper deals with the development and application of the generic methodology for automatic processing (mapping and classification) of environmental data. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is considered in detail and is proposed as an efficient tool to solve the problem of spatial data mapping (regression). The Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) is considered as an automatic tool for spatial classifications. The automatic tuning of isotropic and anisotropic GRNN/PNN models using cross-validation procedure is presented. Results are compared with the k-Nearest-Neighbours (k-NN) interpolation algorithm using independent validation data set. Real case studies are based on decision-oriented mapping and classification of radioactively contaminated territories.

The rewards of cooperation: The effects of membership in European regulatory networks

Networks famously epitomize the shift from 'government' to 'governance' as governing structures for exercising control and coordination besides hierarchies and markets. Their distinctive features are their horizontality, the interdependence among member actors and an interactive decision-making style. Networks are expected to increase the problem-solving capacity of political systems in a context of growing social complexity, where political authority is increasingly fragmented across territorial and functional levels. However, very little attention has been given so far to another crucial implication of network governance - that is, the effects of networks on their members. To explore this important question, this article examines the effects of membership in European regulatory networks on two crucial attributes of member agencies, which are in charge of regulating finance, energy, telecommunications and competition: organisational growth and their regulatory powers. Panel analysis applied to data on 118 agencies during a ten-year period and semi-structured interviews provide mixed support regarding the expectation of organisational growth while strongly confirming the positive effect of networks on the increase of the regulatory powers attributed to member agencies.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Evidence for segregated and integrative connectivity patterns in the human Basal Ganglia.

Detailed knowledge of the anatomy and connectivity pattern of cortico-basal ganglia circuits is essential to an understanding of abnormal cortical function and pathophysiology associated with a wide range of neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases. We aim to study the spatial extent and topography of human basal ganglia connectivity in vivo. Additionally, we explore at an anatomical level the hypothesis of coexistent segregated and integrative cortico-basal ganglia loops. We use probabilistic tractography on magnetic resonance diffusion weighted imaging data to segment basal ganglia and thalamus in 30 healthy subjects based on their cortical and subcortical projections. We introduce a novel method to define voxel-based connectivity profiles that allow representation of projections from a source to more than one target region. Using this method, we localize specific relay nuclei within predefined functional circuits. We find strong correlation between tractography-based basal ganglia parcellation and anatomical data from previously reported invasive tracing studies in nonhuman primates. Additionally, we show in vivo the anatomical basis of segregated loops and the extent of their overlap in prefrontal, premotor, and motor networks. Our findings in healthy humans support the notion that probabilistic diffusion tractography can be used to parcellate subcortical gray matter structures on the basis of their connectivity patterns. The coexistence of clearly segregated and also overlapping connections from cortical sites to basal ganglia subregions is a neuroanatomical correlate of both parallel and integrative networks within them. We believe that this method can be used to examine pathophysiological concepts in a number of basal ganglia-related disorders.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.