Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

Predictors of Weight Change in Sedentary Smokers Receiving a Standard Smoking Cessation Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Quitting smoking is associated with weight gain, which may threaten motivation to engage or sustain a quit attempt. The pattern of weight gained by smokers treated according to smoking cessation guidelines has been poorly described. We aimed to determine the weight gained after smoking cessation and its predictors, by smokers receiving individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapies for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed an ancillary analysis of a randomized controlled trial assessing moderate physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation in addition to standard treatment in sedentary adult smokers. We used mixed longitudinal models to describe the evolution of weight over time, thus allowing us to take every participant into account. We also fitted a model to assess the effect of smoking status and reported use of nicotine replacement therapy at each time point. We adjusted for intervention group, sex, age, nicotine dependence, and education. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, weight increased in the first 3 months, and stabilized afterwards. Mean 1-year weight gain was 3.3kg for women and 3.9kg for men (p = .002). Higher nicotine dependence and male sex were associated with more weight gained during abstinence. Age over median was associated with continuing weight gain during relapse. There was a nonsignificant trend toward slower weight gain with use of nicotine replacement therapies. CONCLUSION: Sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention experience a moderate weight gain, limited to the first 3 months. Older age, male sex, and higher nicotine dependence are predictors of weight gain.

Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab Vs Triamcinolone Acetonide in Patients with Gouty Arthritis Unable to Use Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs and Colchicine, and On Stable Urate Lowering Therapy (ULT) or Unable to Use ULT

Background/Purpose: The primary treatment goals for gouty arthritis (GA) are rapid relief of pain and inflammation during acute attacks, and long-term hyperuricemia management. A post-hoc analysis of 2 pivotal trials was performed to assess efficacy and safety of canakinumab (CAN), a fully human monoclonal anti-IL-1_ antibody, vs triamcinolone acetonide (TA) in GA patients unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine, and who were on stable urate lowering therapy (ULT) or unable to use ULT. Methods: In these 12-week, randomized, multicenter, double-blind, double-dummy, active-controlled studies (_-RELIEVED and _-RELIEVED II), patients had to have frequent attacks (_3 attacks in previous year) meeting preliminary GA ACR 1977 criteria, and were unresponsive, intolerant, or contraindicated to NSAIDs and/or colchicine, and if on ULT, ULT was stable. Patients were randomized during an acute attack to single dose CAN 150 mg s.c. or TA 40 mg i.m. and were redosed "on demand" for each new attack. Patients completing the core studies were enrolled into blinded 12-week extension studies to further investigate on-demand use of CAN vs TA for new attacks. The subpopulation selected for this post-hoc analysis was (a) unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine due to contraindication, intolerance or lack of efficacy for these drugs, and (b) currently on ULT, or contraindication or previous failure of ULT, as determined by investigators. Subpopulation comprised 101 patients (51 CAN; 50 TA) out of 454 total. Results: Several co-morbidities, including hypertension (56%), obesity (56%), diabetes (18%), and ischemic heart disease (13%) were reported in 90% of this subpopulation. Pain intensity (VAS 100 mm scale) was comparable between CAN and TA treatment groups at baseline (least-square [LS] mean 74.6 and 74.4 mm, respectively). A significantly lower pain score was reported with CAN vs TA at 72 hours post dose (1st co-primary endpoint on baseline flare; LS mean, 23.5 vs 33.6 mm; difference _10.2 mm; 95% CI, _19.9, _0.4; P_0.0208 [1-sided]). CAN significantly reduced risk for their first new attacks by 61% vs TA (HR 0.39; 95% CI, 0.17-0.91, P_0.0151 [1-sided]) for the first 12 weeks (2nd co-primary endpoint), and by 61% vs TA (HR 0.39; 95% CI, 0.19-0.79, P_0.0047 [1-sided]) over 24 weeks. Serum urate levels increased for CAN vs TA with mean change from baseline reaching a maximum of _0.7 _ 2.0 vs _0.1 _ 1.8 mg/dL at 8 weeks, and _0.3 _ 2.0 vs _0.2 _ 1.4 mg/dL at end of study (all had GA attack at baseline). Adverse Events (AEs) were reported in 33 (66%) CAN and 24 (47.1%) TA patients. Infections and infestations were the most common AEs, reported in 10 (20%) and 5 (10%) patients treated with CAN and TA respectively. Incidence of SAEs was comparable between CAN (gastritis, gastroenteritis, chronic renal failure) and TA (aortic valve incompetence, cardiomyopathy, aortic stenosis, diarrohea, nausea, vomiting, bicuspid aortic valve) groups (2 [4.0%] vs 2 [3.9%]). Conclusion: CAN provided superior pain relief and reduced risk of new attack in highly-comorbid GA patients unable to use NSAIDs and colchicine, and who were currently on stable ULT or unable to use ULT. The safety profile in this post-hoc subpopulation was consistent with the overall _-RELIEVED and _-RELIEVED II population.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade > or =III vs <III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p<0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (> or =4 mm vs <4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p<0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (> or =60 vs <60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (> or =5 years vs <5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, retention in the cohort, and antiretroviral therapy, in participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: We studied the influence of noninjecting and injecting drug use on mortality, dropout rate, and the course of antiretroviral therapy (ART), in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: Cohort participants, registered prior to April 2007 and with at least one drug use questionnaire completed until May 2013, were categorized according to their self-reported drug use behaviour. The probabilities of death and dropout were separately analysed using multivariable competing risks proportional hazards regression models with mutual correction for the other endpoint. Furthermore, we describe the influence of drug use on the course of ART. RESULTS: A total of 6529 participants (including 31% women) were followed during 31 215 person-years; 5.1% participants died; 10.5% were lost to follow-up. Among persons with homosexual or heterosexual HIV transmission, noninjecting drug use was associated with higher all-cause mortality [subhazard rate (SHR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.83], compared with no drug use. Also, mortality was increased among former injecting drug users (IDUs) who reported noninjecting drug use (SHR 2.34; 95% CI 1.49-3.69). Noninjecting drug use was associated with higher dropout rates. The mean proportion of time with suppressed viral replication was 82.2% in all participants, irrespective of ART status, and 91.2% in those on ART. Drug use lowered adherence, and increased rates of ART change and ART interruptions. Virological failure on ART was more frequent in participants who reported concomitant drug injections while on opiate substitution, and in current IDUs, but not among noninjecting drug users. CONCLUSIONS: Noninjecting drug use and injecting drug use are modifiable risks for death, and they lower retention in a cohort and complicate ART.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013 [Poster]

Background: Few data exist on secular trends of high blood pressure (HBP) detection and control in low and middle income countries, particularly in the African region. This study examines trends of HBP over 25 years based on 4 independent population surveys. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all HBP medications. Previous studies have shown a transition from traditional to cardiometabolic cardiovascular risk factors in Seychelles. Age adjusted cardiovascular disease mortality rates is high but decreasing over the last two decades.

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predictors and Moderators of Clinical Outcomes in Adolescents with Severe Mental Disorders After an Assertive Community Treatment.

Previous studies have shown that stressful life events (SLEs), gender, social functioning and pretreatment severity are some of the predictors and/or moderators of treatment outcome in psychiatric care. The current study explored the effect of these predictors and moderators on the treatment outcome related to assertive community treatment (ACT) proposed to young people with severe mental disorders. 98 patients were assessed for externalizing and emotional difficulties, at admission and then at discharge of an ACT. Analyses revealed significant improvements in terms of symptomatology. In particular, regression analyses showed that pretreatment severity is a significant predictor of the outcome on emotional symptoms and is moderated by SLE on the outcome on externalizing symptoms. Furthermore, higher social functioning proved to predict better outcome on externalizing symptoms. Our results further evidence that these factors can explain inter-individual differences in outcome related to ACT. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Predictors of leadership: The usual suspects and the suspect traits

In this chapter, I review literature on traits (i.e., individual differences) and their links to leader outcomes. I present an integrated model, the ascription-actuality trait theory, to explain two routes to leader outcomes that stem from traits: the route that objectively matters and the route that appears to matter but objectively may not. I discuss the history of trait research and provide criteria by which we should judge the validity of trait models. Finally, I review trait models that are the most predictive of leadership outcomes and identify those that are non-starters.

Spare non-occupational HIV post-exposure prophylaxis by active contacting and testing of the source person.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-1 post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is frequently prescribed after exposure to source persons with an undetermined HIV serostatus. To reduce unnecessary use of PEP, we implemented a policy including active contacting of source persons and the availability of free, anonymous HIV testing ('PEP policy'). METHODS: All consultations for potential non-occupational HIV exposures i.e. outside the medical environment) were prospectively recorded. The impact of the PEP policy on PEP prescription and costs was analysed and modelled. RESULTS: Among 146 putative exposures, 47 involved a source person already known to be HIV positive and 23 had no indication for PEP. The remaining 76 exposures involved a source person of unknown HIV serostatus. Of 33 (43.4%) exposures for which the source person could be contacted and tested, PEP was avoided in 24 (72.7%), initiated and discontinued in seven (21.2%), and prescribed and completed in two (6.1%). In contrast, of 43 (56.6%) exposures for which the source person could not be tested, PEP was prescribed in 35 (81.4%), P < 0.001. Upon modelling, the PEP policy allowed a 31% reduction of cost for management of exposures to source persons of unknown HIV serostatus. The policy was cost-saving for HIV prevalence of up to 70% in the source population. The availability of all the source persons for testing would have reduced cost by 64%. CONCLUSION: In the management of non-occupational HIV exposures, active contacting and free, anonymous testing of source persons proved feasible. This policy resulted in a decrease in prescription of PEP, proved to be cost-saving, and presumably helped to avoid unnecessary toxicity and psychological stress.

Anxiety and severity of illicit substance use in adolescence: Evaluating the mediating role of perceived coping styles

The purpose of this study was to examine whether coping styles (Active coping, Internal coping and Withdrawal coping) mediated the relationships between anxiety and severity of illicit substance use among a sample of 110 Swiss adolescents ages 12-19 (M=16.3, SD=1.66). The current study tested two competing models of anxiety on severity of illicit substance use. In the first model, we tested the direct effect of trait anxiety (STAI-Y anxiety score) on severity of illicit substance use (ADAD drug use severity rating), while in the second models we examined the mediating role of coping styles in the link between trait anxiety and severity of illicit substance use. Path models indicated that the associations between trait anxiety and severity of illicit substance use are partially mediated by active and withdrawal coping styles. Limitations of the findings and implications for prevention of substance use in adolescence are discussed.