Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

Habitat selection in zones of parapatric contact between the Common shrew Sorex araneus and Millet's shrew S. coronatus

(1) The common shrew Sorex araneus and Millet's shrew S. coronatus are sibling species.They are morphologically and genetically very similar but do not hybridize. Their parapatric distribution throughout south-western Europe, with a few narrow zones of distributional overlap, suggests that they are in competitive parapatry. (2) Two of these contact zones were studied; there was evidence of coexistence over periods of 2 years as well as habitat segregation. In both zones, the species segregated on litter thickness and humidity variables. (3) A simple analysis of spatial distribution showed that habitats visible in the field corresponded to the habitats selected by the species. Habitat selection was found throughout the annual life-cycle of the shrews. (4) In one contact zone, a removal experiment was performed to test whether habitat segregation is induced by interspecific interactions. The experiment showed that the species select habitats differentially when both are present and abandon habitat selection when their competitor is removed. (5) These results confirm the role of resource partitioning in promoting narrow rangesof distributional overlap between such parapatric species and qualitatively support the prediction of habitat selection theory that, in a two-species system, coexistence may be achieved by differential habitat selection to avoid competition. The results also support the view that the common shrew and Millet's shrew are in competitive parapatry.

Bioinformatic study of selection in animal genomes

Les gènes orthologues divergent sur plusieurs aspects durant l'évolution. Après une revue de la littérature cherchant à montrer de la divergence entre les orthologues de l'humain et de la souris, j'ai souligné les différentes causes de cette divergence. En comparant les gènes qui divergent en fonction, je n'ai pas trouvé de lien avec la divergence des séquences, pour cette raison je me suis penché sur l'étude de l'expression. Notamment, j'ai étudié le niveau, la spécificité ainsi que la présence/absence d'expression des orthologues humain-souris liés aux maladies Mendéliennes. Malgré les similarités trouvées entre l'humain et la souris, j'ai détecté une différence d'expression spécifique à une des deux espèces liée a un phénotype précis (gène essentiel/non-essentiel). Cela m'a permis de conclure que la différence sur le plan phénotypique entre l'humain et la souris est mieux expliquée par les patrons d'expression plutôt que le niveau d'expression ou la sélection. J'ai été également intéressé par l'évolution des séquences d'ADN codantes pour des protéines, en particulier sur le rôle de la sélection. J'ai commencé par une étude sur la fiabilité de détection de la sélection positive en comparant des séquences divergentes. J'ai trouvé, en utilisant le model de branche-site que la sélection peut être détectée sur des séquences qui ont divergé il y a plus de 500 millions d'années. J'ai analysé le biais de GC entres les séquences sans trouver une influence sur l'estimation de la sélection positive. Finalement, Je crois que ce travail est une première étape dans l'établissement d'un lien entre la sélection et les patrons d'expression des gènes chez les vertébrés.

Growth decrease in Alpine whitefish: investigating the relative contribution of fishing induced selection and environmental change and its implication for conservation measures

La pression exercée par les activités humaines menace pratiquement tous les écosystèmes aquatiques du globe. Ainsi, sous l'effet de divers facteurs tels que la pollution, le réchauffement climatique ou encore la pêche industrielle, de nombreuses populations de poissons ont vu leurs effectifs chuter et divers changements morphologiques ont été observés. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes intéressés à une menace particulière: la sélection induite par la pêche sur la croissance des poissons. En effet, la génétique des populations prédit que la soustraction régulière des individus les plus gros peut entraîner des modifications rapides de certains traits physiques comme la croissance individuelle. Cela a par ailleurs été observé dans de nombreuses populations marines ou lacustres, dont les populations de féras, bondelles et autres corégones des lacs suisses. Toutefois, malgré un nombre croissant d'études décrivant ce phénomène, peu de plans de gestion en tiennent compte, car l'importance des effets génétiques liés à la pêche est le plus souvent négligée par rapport à l'impact des changements environnementaux. Le but premier de cette étude a donc été de quantifier l'importance des facteurs génétiques et environnementaux. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons étudié la population de palée du lac de Joux (Coregonus palaea). Nous avons déterminé les différentiels de sélection dus à la pêche, c'est-à-dire l'intensité de la sélection sur le taux de croissance, ainsi que les changements nets de croissance au cours du temps. Nous avons observé une baisse marquée de croissance et un différentiel de sélection important indiquant qu'au moins 30% de la diminution de croissance observée était due à la pression de sélection induite par la pêche. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous avons effectué les mêmes analyses sur deux espèces proches du lac de Brienz (C. albellus et C. fatioi) et avons observé des effets similaires dont l'intensité était spécifique à chaque espèce. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous avons analysé deux autres espèces : C. palaea et C. confusus du lac de Bienne, et avons constaté que le lien entre la pression de sélection et la diminution de croissance était influencé par des facteurs environnementaux. Finalement, dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons étudié les effets potentiels de différentes modifications de la taille des mailles des filets utilisés pour la pêche à l'aide de modèles mathématiques. Nous concluons que la pêche a un effet génétique non négligeable (et donc peu réversible) sur la croissance individuelle dans les populations observée, que cet effet est lié à la compétition pour la nourriture et à la qualité de l'environnement, et que certaines modifications simples de la taille des mailles des filets de pêche pourraient nettement diminuer l'effet de sélection et ainsi ralentir, voir même renverser la diminution de croissance observée.

Adaptive diversity in heterogeneous environments for populations regulated by a mixture of soft and hard selection

The stable co-existence of two haploid genotypes or two species is studied in a spatially heterogeneous environment submitted to a mixture of soft selection (within-patch regulation) and hard selection (outside-patch regulation) and where two kinds of resource are available. This is analysed both at an ecological time-scale (short term) and at an evolutionary time-scale (long term). At an ecological scale, we show that co-existence is very unlikely if the two competitors are symmetrical specialists exploiting different resources. In this case, the most favourable conditions are met when the two resources are equally available, a situation that should favour generalists at an evolutionary scale. Alternatively, low within-patch density dependence (soft selection) enhances the co-existence between two slightly different specialists of the most available resource. This results from the opposing forces that are acting in hard and soft regulation modes. In the case of unbalanced accessibility to the two resources, hard selection favours the most specialized genotype, whereas soft selection strongly favours the less specialized one. Our results suggest that competition for different resources may be difficult to demonstrate in the wild even when it is a key factor in the maintenance of adaptive diversity. At an evolutionary scale, a monomorphic invasive evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) always exists. When a linear trade-off exists between survival in one habitat versus that in another, this ESS lies between an absolute adjustment of survival to niche size (for mainly soft-regulated populations) and absolute survival (specialization) in a single niche (for mainly hard-regulated populations). This suggests that environments in agreement with the assumptions of such models should lead to an absence of adaptive variation in the long term.

Automatic selection of tidal volume, respiratory frequency and minute ventilation in intubated ICU patients as start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

OBJECTIVE: Before a patient can be connected to a mechanical ventilator, the controls of the apparatus need to be set up appropriately. Today, this is done by the intensive care professional. With the advent of closed loop controlled mechanical ventilation, methods will be needed to select appropriate start up settings automatically. The objective of our study was to test such a computerized method which could eventually be used as a start-up procedure (first 5-10 minutes of ventilation) for closed-loop controlled ventilation. DESIGN: Prospective Study. SETTINGS: ICU's in two adult and one children's hospital. PATIENTS: 25 critically ill adult patients (age > or = 15 y) and 17 critically ill children selected at random were studied. INTERVENTIONS: To stimulate 'initial connection', the patients were disconnected from their ventilator and transiently connected to a modified Hamilton AMADEUS ventilator for maximally one minute. During that time they were ventilated with a fixed and standardized breath pattern (Test Breaths) based on pressure controlled synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation (PCSIMV). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Measurements of airway flow, airway pressure and instantaneous CO2 concentration using a mainstream CO2 analyzer were made at the mouth during application of the Test-Breaths. Test-Breaths were analyzed in terms of tidal volume, expiratory time constant and series dead space. Using this data an initial ventilation pattern consisting of respiratory frequency and tidal volume was calculated. This ventilation pattern was compared to the one measured prior to the onset of the study using a two-tailed paired t-test. Additionally, it was compared to a conventional method for setting up ventilators. The computer-proposed ventilation pattern did not differ significantly from the actual pattern (p > 0.05), while the conventional method did. However the scatter was large and in 6 cases deviations in the minute ventilation of more than 50% were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of standardized Test Breaths allows automatic determination of an initial ventilation pattern for intubated ICU patients. While this pattern does not seem to be superior to the one chosen by the conventional method, it is derived fully automatically and without need for manual patient data entry such as weight or height. This makes the method potentially useful as a start up procedure for closed-loop controlled ventilation.

The Effect of Inoculum Size on Selection of In Vitro Resistance to Vancomycin, Daptomycin, and Linezolid in Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

OBJECTIVES: The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) at high bacterial densities. The effect of three inoculum sizes on the selection of resistance to vancomycin, daptomycin, and linezolid was investigated in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). METHODS: Low (10(4) CFU/ml), medium (10(6) CFU/ml), and high (10(8) CFU/ml) inocula of MRSA were exposed to twofold increasing concentrations of either drug during 15 days of cycling. MICs for low (MICL), medium (MICM), and high (MICH) inocula were determined daily. Conventional MICs were measured at days 1, 5, 10, and 15. Experiments were performed in triplicate. RESULTS: At the beginning of the experiment a small IE was observed for vancomycin (MICL=1 μg/ml, MICM=1-2 μg/ml, and MICH=2 μg/ml) and a significant IE for daptomycin (MICL=0.25 μg/ml, MICM=0.25-0.5 μg/ml, and MICH=2 μg/ml). Linezolid exhibited no IE at low and medium inocula (MICL=1 μg/ml and MICM=1-2 μg/ml), but with the high inoculum, concentrations up to 2,048 μg/ml did not fully inhibit visual growth. During cycling, increase of MIC was observed for all antibiotics. At day 15, MICL, MICM, and MICH of vancomycin were 2-4, 4-8, and 4-16 μg/ml and of daptomycin were 0.5-2, 8-128, and 64-256 μg/ml, respectively. MICL and MICM of linezolid were 1 and 2-4 μg/ml, respectively. Conventional MICs showed vancomycin and daptomycin selection of resistance since day 5 depending on the inocula. No selection of linezolid resistance was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed the importance of the inoculum size in the development of resistance. Measures aimed at lowering the inoculum at the site of infection should be used whenever possible in parallel to antimicrobial therapy.

Autoreactive T cells bypass negative selection and respond to self-antigen stimulation during infection.

Central and peripheral tolerance prevent autoimmunity by deleting the most aggressive CD8(+) T cells but they spare cells that react weakly to tissue-restricted antigen (TRA). To reveal the functional characteristics of these spared cells, we generated a transgenic mouse expressing the TCR of a TRA-specific T cell that had escaped negative selection. Interestingly, the isolated TCR matches the affinity/avidity threshold for negatively selecting T cells, and when developing transgenic cells are exposed to their TRA in the thymus, only a fraction of them are eliminated but significant numbers enter the periphery. In contrast to high avidity cells, low avidity T cells persist in the antigen-positive periphery with no signs of anergy, unresponsiveness, or prior activation. Upon activation during an infection they cause autoimmunity and form memory cells. Unexpectedly, peptide ligands that are weaker in stimulating the transgenic T cells than the thymic threshold ligand also induce profound activation in the periphery. Thus, the peripheral T cell activation threshold during an infection is below that of negative selection for TRA. These results demonstrate the existence of a level of self-reactivity to TRA to which the thymus confers no protection and illustrate that organ damage can occur without genetic predisposition to autoimmunity.

Mutations in penicillin-binding protein (PBP) genes and in non-PBP genes during selection of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus gordonii.

Penicillin resistance in Streptococcus spp. involves multiple mutations in both penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs) and non-PBP genes. Here, we studied the development of penicillin resistance in the oral commensal Streptococcus gordonii. Cyclic exposure of bacteria to twofold-increasing penicillin concentrations selected for a progressive 250- to 500-fold MIC increase (from 0.008 to between 2 and 4 microg/ml). The major MIC increase (> or = 35-fold) was related to non-PBP mutations, whereas PBP mutations accounted only for a 4- to 8-fold additional increase. PBP mutations occurred in class B PBPs 2X and 2B, which carry a transpeptidase domain, but not in class A PBP 1A, 1B, or 2A, which carry an additional transglycosylase domain. Therefore, we tested whether inactivation of class A PBPs affected resistance development in spite of the absence of mutations. Deletion of PBP 1A or 2A profoundly slowed down resistance development but only moderately affected resistance in already highly resistant mutants (MIC = 2 to 4 microg/ml). Thus, class A PBPs might facilitate early development of resistance by stabilizing penicillin-altered peptidoglycan via transglycosylation, whereas they might be less indispensable in highly resistant mutants which have reestablished a penicillin-insensitive cell wall-building machinery. The contribution of PBP and non-PBP mutations alone could be individualized in DNA transformation. Both PBP and non-PBP mutations conferred some level of intrinsic resistance, but combining the mutations synergized them to ensure high-level resistance (> or = 2 microg/ml). The results underline the complexity of penicillin resistance development and suggest that inhibition of transglycosylase might be an as yet underestimated way to interfere with early resistance development.

Viral superantigen-induced negative selection of TCR transgenic CD4+ CD8+ thymocytes depends on activation, but not proliferation.

T-cell negative selection, a process by which intrathymic immunological tolerance is induced, involves the apoptosis-mediated clonal deletion of potentially autoreactive T cells. Although different experimental approaches suggest that this process is triggered as the result of activation-mediated cell death, the signal transduction pathways underlying this process is not fully understood. In the present report we have used an in vitro system to analyze the cell activation and proliferation requirements for the deletion of viral superantigen (SAg)-reactive Vbeta8.1 T-cell receptor (TCR) transgenic (TG) thymocytes. Our results indicate that in vitro negative selection of viral SAg-reactive CD4+ CD8+ thymocytes is dependent on thymocyte activation but does not require the proliferation of the negatively signaled thymocytes.

Implementation of raltegravir in routine clinical practice: selection criteria for choosing this drug, virologic response rates, and characteristics of failures.

BACKGROUND: Raltegravir (RAL) achieved remarkable virologic suppression rates in randomized-clinical trials, but today efficacy data and factors for treatment failures in a routine clinical care setting are limited. METHODS: First, factors associated with a switch to RAL were identified with a logistic regression including patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with a history of 3 class failure (n = 423). Second, predictors for virologic outcome were identified in an intent-to-treat analysis including all patients who received RAL. Last observation carried forward imputation was used to determine week 24 response rate (HIV-1 RNA >or= 50 copies/mL). RESULTS: The predominant factor associated with a switch to RAL in patients with suppressed baseline RNA was a regimen containing enfuvirtide [odds ratio 41.9 (95% confidence interval: 11.6-151.6)]. Efficacy analysis showed an overall response rate of 80.9% (152/188), whereas 71.8% (84/117) and 95.8% (68/71) showed viral suppression when stratified for detectable and undetectable RNA at baseline, respectively. Overall CD4 cell counts increased significantly by 42 cells/microL (P < 0.001). Characteristics of failures were a genotypic sensitivity score of the background regimen <or=1, very low RAL plasma concentrations, poor adherence, and high viral load at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic suppression rates in our routine clinical care setting were promising and comparable with data from previously published randomized-controlled trials.

Conditional manipulation of sex ratios by ant workers: A test of kin selection theory

Variable queen mating frequencies provide a unique opportunity to study the resolution of worker-queen conflict over sex ratio in social Hymenoptera, because the conflict is maximal in colonies headed by a singly mated queen and is weak or nonexistent in colonies headed by a multiply mated queen. In the wood ant Formica exsecta, workers in colonies with a singly mated queen, but not those in colonies with a multiply mated queen, altered the sex ratio of queen-laid eggs by eliminating males to preferentially raise queens. By this conditional response to queen mating frequency, workers enhance their inclusive fitness.

Community-wide plasmid gene mobilization and selection.

Plasmids have long been recognized as an important driver of DNA exchange and genetic innovation in prokaryotes. The success of plasmids has been attributed to their independent replication from the host's chromosome and their frequent self-transfer. It is thought that plasmids accumulate, rearrange and distribute nonessential genes, which may provide an advantage for host proliferation under selective conditions. In order to test this hypothesis independently of biases from culture selection, we study the plasmid metagenome from microbial communities in two activated sludge systems, one of which receives mostly household and the other chemical industry wastewater. We find that plasmids from activated sludge microbial communities carry among the largest proportion of unknown gene pools so far detected in metagenomic DNA, confirming their presumed role of DNA innovators. At a system level both plasmid metagenomes were dominated by functions associated with replication and transposition, and contained a wide variety of antibiotic and heavy metal resistances. Plasmid families were very different in the two metagenomes and grouped in deep-branching new families compared with known plasmid replicons. A number of abundant plasmid replicons could be completely assembled directly from the metagenome, providing insight in plasmid composition without culturing bias. Functionally, the two metagenomes strongly differed in several ways, including a greater abundance of genes for carbohydrate metabolism in the industrial and of general defense factors in the household activated sludge plasmid metagenome. This suggests that plasmids not only contribute to the adaptation of single individual prokaryotic species, but of the prokaryotic community as a whole under local selective conditions.

Autoimmunity-Associated LYP-W620 Does Not Impair Thymic Negative Selection of Autoreactive T Cells.

A C1858T (R620W) variation in the PTPN22 gene encoding the tyrosine phosphatase LYP is a major risk factor for human autoimmunity. LYP is a known negative regulator of signaling through the T cell receptor (TCR), and murine Ptpn22 plays a role in thymic selection. However, the mechanism of action of the R620W variant in autoimmunity remains unclear. One model holds that LYP-W620 is a gain-of-function phosphatase that causes alterations in thymic negative selection and/or thymic output of regulatory T cells (Treg) through inhibition of thymic TCR signaling. To test this model, we generated mice in which the human LYP-W620 variant or its phosphatase-inactive mutant are expressed in developing thymocytes under control of the proximal Lck promoter. We found that LYP-W620 expression results in diminished thymocyte TCR signaling, thus modeling a "gain-of-function" of LYP at the signaling level. However, LYP-W620 transgenic mice display no alterations of thymic negative selection and no anomalies in thymic output of CD4(+)Foxp3(+) Treg were detected in these mice. Lck promoter-directed expression of the human transgene also causes no alteration in thymic repertoire or increase in disease severity in a model of rheumatoid arthritis, which depends on skewed thymic selection of CD4(+) T cells. Our data suggest that a gain-of-function of LYP is unlikely to increase risk of autoimmunity through alterations of thymic selection and that LYP likely acts in the periphery perhaps selectively in regulatory T cells or in another cell type to increase risk of autoimmunity.