Quantitative modelling of transcription factor binding sites

Abstract One of the most important issues in molecular biology is to understand regulatory mechanisms that control gene expression. Gene expression is often regulated by proteins, called transcription factors which bind to short (5 to 20 base pairs),degenerate segments of DNA. Experimental efforts towards understanding the sequence specificity of transcription factors is laborious and expensive, but can be substantially accelerated with the use of computational predictions. This thesis describes the use of algorithms and resources for transcriptionfactor binding site analysis in addressing quantitative modelling, where probabilitic models are built to represent binding properties of a transcription factor and can be used to find new functional binding sites in genomes. Initially, an open-access database(HTPSELEX) was created, holding high quality binding sequences for two eukaryotic families of transcription factors namely CTF/NF1 and LEFT/TCF. The binding sequences were elucidated using a recently described experimental procedure called HTP-SELEX, that allows generation of large number (> 1000) of binding sites using mass sequencing technology. For each HTP-SELEX experiments we also provide accurate primary experimental information about the protein material used, details of the wet lab protocol, an archive of sequencing trace files, and assembled clone sequences of binding sequences. The database also offers reasonably large SELEX libraries obtained with conventional low-throughput protocols.The database is available at http://wwwisrec.isb-sib.ch/htpselex/ and and ftp://ftp.isrec.isb-sib.ch/pub/databases/htpselex. The Expectation-Maximisation(EM) algorithm is one the frequently used methods to estimate probabilistic models to represent the sequence specificity of transcription factors. We present computer simulations in order to estimate the precision of EM estimated models as a function of data set parameters(like length of initial sequences, number of initial sequences, percentage of nonbinding sequences). We observed a remarkable robustness of the EM algorithm with regard to length of training sequences and the degree of contamination. The HTPSELEX database and the benchmarked results of the EM algorithm formed part of the foundation for the subsequent project, where a statistical framework called hidden Markov model has been developed to represent sequence specificity of the transcription factors CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF using the HTP-SELEX experiment data. The hidden Markov model framework is capable of both predicting and classifying CTF/NF1 and LEF1/TCF binding sites. A covariance analysis of the binding sites revealed non-independent base preferences at different nucleotide positions, providing insight into the binding mechanism. We next tested the LEF1/TCF model by computing binding scores for a set of LEF1/TCF binding sequences for which relative affinities were determined experimentally using non-linear regression. The predicted and experimentally determined binding affinities were in good correlation.

Use of anisotropic modelling in electrical impedance tomography: description of method and preliminary assessment of utility in imaging brain function in the adult human head.

Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is an imaging method which enables a volume conductivity map of a subject to be produced from multiple impedance measurements. It has the potential to become a portable non-invasive imaging technique of particular use in imaging brain function. Accurate numerical forward models may be used to improve image reconstruction but, until now, have employed an assumption of isotropic tissue conductivity. This may be expected to introduce inaccuracy, as body tissues, especially those such as white matter and the skull in head imaging, are highly anisotropic. The purpose of this study was, for the first time, to develop a method for incorporating anisotropy in a forward numerical model for EIT of the head and assess the resulting improvement in image quality in the case of linear reconstruction of one example of the human head. A realistic Finite Element Model (FEM) of an adult human head with segments for the scalp, skull, CSF, and brain was produced from a structural MRI. Anisotropy of the brain was estimated from a diffusion tensor-MRI of the same subject and anisotropy of the skull was approximated from the structural information. A method for incorporation of anisotropy in the forward model and its use in image reconstruction was produced. The improvement in reconstructed image quality was assessed in computer simulation by producing forward data, and then linear reconstruction using a sensitivity matrix approach. The mean boundary data difference between anisotropic and isotropic forward models for a reference conductivity was 50%. Use of the correct anisotropic FEM in image reconstruction, as opposed to an isotropic one, corrected an error of 24 mm in imaging a 10% conductivity decrease located in the hippocampus, improved localisation for conductivity changes deep in the brain and due to epilepsy by 4-17 mm, and, overall, led to a substantial improvement on image quality. This suggests that incorporation of anisotropy in numerical models used for image reconstruction is likely to improve EIT image quality.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Événements et déformations tardi-métamorphiques dans le segment Ossola-Ticino (Val Vigezzo-Centovalli, Italie-Suisse)

RESUME: Une zone tectonique large et complexe, connue sous le nom de ligne des Centovalli, traverse le secteur des Alpes Centrales compris entre Domodossola et Locarno. Cette région, formée par le Val Vigezzo et la vallée des Centovalli, constitue la terminaison méridionale du dôme Lepontin et représente une portion de la zone des racines des nappes alpines. Elle fait partie d’une grande et complexe zone de cisaillement, en partie associée à des phénomènes hydrothermaux d’âge alpin (<20 Ma), qui comprend le système tectonique Insubrien et celui du Simplon. Le Val Vigezzo et les Centovalli constituent un vrai carrefour entre les principaux accidents tectoniques des Alpes ainsi qu'une zone de juxtaposition du socle Sudalpin avec la zone des racines de l’Austroalpin et du Pennique. Les phases de déformation et les structures géologiques qui peuvent être étudiées s'étalent sur une période comprise entre environ 35 Ma et l'actuel. L’étude détaillée de terrain a mis en évidence la présence de nombreuses roches et structures de déformation de type ductile et cassant tels que des mylonites, des cataclasites, des pseudotachylites, des kakirites, des failles minéralisées, des gouges de faille et des plis. Sur le terrain on a pu distinguer au moins quatre générations de plis liés aux différentes phases de déformation. Le nombre et la complexité de ces structures indiquent une histoire très compliquée, selon plusieurs étapes distinctes, parfois liées, voire même superposées. Une partie de ces structures de déformation affectent aussi les dépôts sédimentaires d’âge quaternaire, notamment des limons et des sables lacustres. Ces sédiments constituent les restes d'un bassin lacustre attribué à l'époque interglaciaire Riss/Würm (éemien, 67.000-120.000 ans) et ils affleurent dans la partie centrale de la zone étudiée, à l'Est de la plaine de Santa Maria Maggiore. Ces sédiments montrent en leur sein toute une série de structures de déformation tels que des plans de faille inverses, des structures conjuguées de raccourcissement et des véritables plis. Ces failles et ces plis représenteraient les évidences de surface d’une déformation probablement active en époque quaternaire. Une autre formation rocheuse a retenu tout notre attention; il s'agit d'un corps de brèches péridotitiques monogéniques qui affleure en discontinuité le long du versant méridional et le long du fond de la vallée Vigezzo sur environ 20 km. Ces brèches se posent indifféremment sur le socle (unités Finero, Orselina) ou sur les sédiments lacustres. Elles sont traversées par des plans de failles qui développent des véritables stries de faille et des gouges de faille; l’orientation de ces plans est la même que celle affectant les failles à gouges du socle. La genèse de cette brèche est liée à l'altération et au modelage glacier (rock-glaciers) d'une brèche tectonique originelle qui borde la partie externe du Corps de Finero. Les structures de déformation de cette brèche, pareillement à celles des sédiments lacustres, ont été considérées comme les évidences de surface d'une tectonique quaternaire active dans la région. La dernière phase de déformation cassante qui affecte cette région peut donc être considérée comme active en époque quaternaire. Une vue d’ensemble de la région étudiée nous permet de reconnaître à l’échelle régionale une zone de cisaillement complexe orientée E-W, parallèlement à l’axe de la vallée Centovalli-Val Vigezzo. Les données de terrain, indiquent que cette zone de cisaillement débute sous conditions ductiles et évolue en plusieurs étapes jusqu’à des conditions de failles cassantes de surface. La reconstruction de l'évolution géodynamique de la région a permis de définir trois étapes distinctes qui marquent le passage, de ce secteur de socle cristallin, de conditions P-T profondes à des conditions de surface. Dans ce contexte, on a reconnu trois phases principales de déformation à l’échelle régionale qui caractérisent ces trois étapes. La phase la plus ancienne est constituée par des mylonites en faciès amphibolite, associées à des mouvements de cisaillement dextre, qui sont ensuite remplacés par des mylonites en faciès schistes verts et des plis rétrovergentes liés au rétrocharriage des nappes alpines. Une deuxième étape est identifiée par le développement d’une phase hydrothermale liée à un système de failles extensives et décrochantes dextres à direction principale E-W, NE-SW et NW-SE. Leur caractérisation minéralogique a permis la mise en évidence des phases cristallines de néoformation liées à cet événement constituées par : K-feldspath (microcline), chlorites (Fe+Mg), épidotes, prehnite, zéolites (laumontite), sphène, calcite. Dans ce contexte, pour obtenir une meilleure caractérisation de cet événement hydrothermal on a utilisé des géothermomètres sur chlorites, sensible aussi à la pression et a la a(H2O), qui ont donné des valeurs descendantes comprises entre 450-200°C. Les derniers mouvements sont mis en évidence par le développement d’une série de plans majeurs de failles à gouge, qui forment une structure en sigmoïdes d’épaisseur kilométrique reconnaissable à l’échelle de la vallée et caractérisée par des mouvements transpressifs avec une composante décrochante dextre toujours importante. Cette phase de déformation forme un système conjugué de failles avec direction moyenne E-W qui coupent la zone des racines des nappes alpines, la zone du Canavese et le corps ultramafique de Finero. Ce système se déroule de manière subparallèle à l'axe de la vallée le long de plusieurs dizaines de kilomètres. Une analyse complète et détaillée des gouges de faille par XRD a montré que la fraction argileuse (<2 µm) de ces gouges contient une partie de néoformation très importante constituée par, des illites, des chlorites et des interstratifiés de type illite/smectite ou chlorite/smectite. Des datations avec méthode K-Ar sur ces illites ont donné des valeurs comprises entre 12 et 4 Ma qui représentent l'âge de cette dernière déformation cassante. L'application de la méthode de la cristallinité de l'illite (C.I.) a permis d'évaluer les conditions thermiques qui caractérisent le déroulement de cette dernière phase tectonique qui se produit sous conditions de température caractéristiques de l'anchizone et de la diagenèse. L'ensemble des structures de déformation qu'on vient de décrire s'insère parfaitement dans le contexte de convergence oblique entre la plaque adriatique et celle européenne qui à produit l'orogène alpin. On peut considérer les structures tectoniques du Val Vigezzo-Centovalli comme l'expression d'une zone majeure de cisaillement "Simplo-Insubrienne". L'empilement structural et les structures tectoniques affleurantes dans la région sont le résultat de l'interaction entre un régime tectonique transpressif et un régime transtensif. Ces deux champs de tension sont antagonistes entre eux mais sont reliés, de toute façon, à une seule phase décrochante dextre principale, due à une convergence oblique entre deux plaques. À l'échelle de l'évolution géodynamique on peut distinguer différentes étapes au cours desquelles les structures de ces deux régimes tectoniques interagissent en manière différente. En accord avec les données géophysiques et les reconstructions paléodynamiques prises dans la littérature on considère que la ligne Rhône-Simplon-Centovalli représente l'évidence de surface de la suture majeure profonde entre la plaque Adriatique et celle Européenne. Les vitesses de soulèvement qui ont été calculées dans cette étude pour cette région des Alpes donnent une valeur moyenne de 0.8 mm/a qui est tout à fait comparable avec les données proposées par la littérature sur cette zone. La zone Val Vigezzo-Centovalli peut être donc considérée comme un carrefour géologique où se croisent différentes phases tectoniques qui représentent les évidences de surface d'une suture profonde majeure entre deux plaques dans un contexte de collision continentale. ABSTRACT: A wide and complex tectonic zone known as Centovalli line, crosses the Central Alps sector between Domodossola and Locarno. This area, formed by the Vigezzo Valley and Centovalli valley, constitutes the southernmost termination of the Lepontin dome and represents a portion of the alpine nappes root zone. It belongs to a large and complex shear-zone, partly associated with hydrothermal phenomena of alpine age (<20 My), which includes the Insubric Line and the Simplon fault zone. Vigezzo Valley and Centovalli constitute a real crossroads between the mains alpines tectonics lines as well as a zone of juxtaposition of the Southalpine basement with the Austroalpin and Pennique root zone. The deformation phases and the geological structures that can be studied between approximately 35 My and the present. The detailed field study showed the presence of many brittle and ductile deformation structures and fault rocks such as mylonites, cataclasites, pseudotachylites, kakirites, mineralized faults, fault gouges and folds. In the field we could distinguish at least four folds generations related to the various deformation phases. The number and the complexity of these structures indicate a very complicated history, comprising several different stages, that sometimes are related and even superimposed. Part of these deformation structures affect also the sedimentary deposits of quaternary age, in particular the silts and sands lake deposit. These sediments constitute the remainders of a lake basin ascribed to the interglacial Riss/Würm (Eemien, 67.000-120.000 years) and outcroping in the central part of the studied area, in the Eastern part of Santa Maria Maggiore plain. These sediments show a whole series of deformation structures such as inverse fault planes, combined shortening structures and true folds. These faults and folds would represent the surface evidence of a probably active tectonic deformation in quaternary time. Another rock formation attracted all our attention. It is a body of monogenic peridotite breccia which outcrops in discontinuity along the southernmost slope and the bottom of the Vigezzo valley on approximately 20 km. This breccia lies indifferently on the basement (Finero and Orselina units) or on the lake sediments. They are crossed by fault planes which developed slikenside and fault gouges whose orientation is the same of the faults gouges in the alpine basement. This breccia results from the weathering and the surface modelling of an original tectonic breccia which borders the external part of Finero peridotite body. This breccia deformation structures, like those of the lake sediments, were regarded as the surface interaction of active quaternary tectonics in the area. So the last brittle deformation phases which affects this area seems to be actives in quaternary time. Theoverall picture of the studied area on a regional scale enables us to point out a complex shear-zone directed E-W, parallel to the axis of the Centovalli and Vigezzo Valley. The field analysis indicates that this shear-zone began under ductile conditions and evolved in several stages to brittle faulting under surface conditions. The analysis of the geodynamic evolution of the area allows to define three different stages which mark the transition of this alpine basement root zone, from deep P-T conditions to P-T surface conditions. In this context on regional scale three principal deformation phases, which characterize these three stages can be distinguished. The oldest phase consisted of the amphibolitie facies mylonites, associated to dextral strikeslip movements. They are then replaced by green-schists facies mylonites and backfolds related to the backthrusting of the alpines nappes. A second episode is caracterized by the development of an hydrothermal phase bound to an extensive fault and dextral strike-slip fault system, with E-W, NW-SE and SE-NW principal directionsThe principal neoformed mineral phases related to this event are: K-feldspar (microcline), chlorites (Fe+Mg), epidotes prehnite, zéolites (laumontite), sphene and calcite. In this context, to obtain a better characterization of this hydrothermal event, we have used an chlorite geothermometer, sensitive also to the pressure and has the a(H2O), which gave downward values ranging between 450-200°C. The last movements are caracterized by the development of important gouge fault plans, which form a sigmoid structure of kilometric thickness which is recognizable at the valley scale, and is characterized by transpressive movements always with a significant dextral strike-slip component. This deformation phase forms a combined faults system with an average E-W direction, which cuts trough the alpine root zone, the Canavese zone and the Finero ultramafic body. This fault system takes place subparallel to the axis of the valley over several tens of kilometers. A complete and detailed XRD analysis of the gouges fault showed that the clay fraction (<2µm) contains a very significant neo-formation of illite, chlorites and mixed layered clays such as illite/smectite or chlorite/smectite. The K-Ar datings of the illite fraction <2µm gave values ranging between 12 and 4 My and the illite fraction <0.2µm gave more recents values until to 2,4-0 My.This values represent the age of this last brittle deformation. The application of the illite crystallinity method (C.I.) allowed evaluating the thermal conditions which characterize this tectonic phase that occured under temperature conditions of the anchizone and diagenesis. The whole set of deformation structures which we just described, perfectly fit the context of oblique convergence between the Adriatic and the European plate that produced the alpine orogen. We can regard the Vigezzo valley and Centovalli tectonic structures as the expression of a major "Simplo-Insubric" shear-zone. Structural stacking and tectonic structures that outcrop in the studied area, are the result of the interaction between a transpressive and a transtensve tectonic phases. These two tension fields are antagonistic but they are also connected, in any event, with only one principal dextral strike-slip movement, caused by an oblique convergence between two plates. On the geodynamic evolution scale we can distinguish various stages during which these two tectonic structures fields interact in various ways. In agreement with the geophysical data and the paleodynamic recostructions taken in the literature we considers that the Rhone-Simplon-Centovalli line are the surface feature of the major collision between the Adriatique and the European plate at depth. The uplift speeds we calculated in this study for this Alpine area give an average value of 0.8 mm/a, which is in good agreement with the data suggested by the literature on this zone. TheVigezzo Valley and Centovalli zone can therefore be regarded as a geological crossroad where various tectonic phases are superimposed. They represent the evidences of a major and deeper suture between two plates in a continental collision context.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

GIS and geodatabases application to global scale plate tectonics modelling

Les reconstructions palinspastiques fournissent le cadre idéal à de nombreuses études géologiques, géographiques, océanographique ou climatiques. En tant qu?historiens de la terre, les "reconstructeurs" essayent d?en déchiffrer le passé. Depuis qu?ils savent que les continents bougent, les géologues essayent de retracer leur évolution à travers les âges. Si l?idée originale de Wegener était révolutionnaire au début du siècle passé, nous savons depuis le début des années « soixante » que les continents ne "dérivent" pas sans but au milieu des océans mais sont inclus dans un sur-ensemble associant croûte « continentale » et « océanique »: les plaques tectoniques. Malheureusement, pour des raisons historiques aussi bien que techniques, cette idée ne reçoit toujours pas l'écho suffisant parmi la communauté des reconstructeurs. Néanmoins, nous sommes intimement convaincus qu?en appliquant certaines méthodes et certains principes il est possible d?échapper à l?approche "Wégenerienne" traditionnelle pour enfin tendre vers la tectonique des plaques. Le but principal du présent travail est d?exposer, avec tous les détails nécessaires, nos outils et méthodes. Partant des données paléomagnétiques et paléogéographiques classiquement utilisées pour les reconstructions, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthodologie replaçant les plaques tectoniques et leur cinématique au coeur du problème. En utilisant des assemblages continentaux (aussi appelés "assemblées clés") comme des points d?ancrage répartis sur toute la durée de notre étude (allant de l?Eocène jusqu?au Cambrien), nous développons des scénarios géodynamiques permettant de passer de l?une à l?autre en allant du passé vers le présent. Entre deux étapes, les plaques lithosphériques sont peu à peu reconstruites en additionnant/ supprimant les matériels océaniques (symbolisés par des isochrones synthétiques) aux continents. Excepté lors des collisions, les plaques sont bougées comme des entités propres et rigides. A travers les âges, les seuls éléments évoluant sont les limites de plaques. Elles sont préservées aux cours du temps et suivent une évolution géodynamique consistante tout en formant toujours un réseau interconnecté à travers l?espace. Cette approche appelée "limites de plaques dynamiques" intègre de multiples facteurs parmi lesquels la flottabilité des plaques, les taux d'accrétions aux rides, les courbes de subsidence, les données stratigraphiques et paléobiogéographiques aussi bien que les évènements tectoniques et magmatiques majeurs. Cette méthode offre ainsi un bon contrôle sur la cinématique des plaques et fournit de sévères contraintes au modèle. Cette approche "multi-source" nécessite une organisation et une gestion des données efficaces. Avant le début de cette étude, les masses de données nécessaires était devenues un obstacle difficilement surmontable. Les SIG (Systèmes d?Information Géographiques) et les géo-databases sont des outils informatiques spécialement dédiés à la gestion, au stockage et à l?analyse des données spatialement référencées et de leurs attributs. Grâce au développement dans ArcGIS de la base de données PaleoDyn nous avons pu convertir cette masse de données discontinues en informations géodynamiques précieuses et facilement accessibles pour la création des reconstructions. Dans le même temps, grâce à des outils spécialement développés, nous avons, tout à la fois, facilité le travail de reconstruction (tâches automatisées) et amélioré le modèle en développant fortement le contrôle cinématique par la création de modèles de vitesses des plaques. Sur la base des 340 terranes nouvellement définis, nous avons ainsi développé un set de 35 reconstructions auxquelles est toujours associé un modèle de vitesse. Grâce à cet ensemble de données unique, nous pouvons maintenant aborder des problématiques majeurs de la géologie moderne telles que l?étude des variations du niveau marin et des changements climatiques. Nous avons commencé par aborder un autre problème majeur (et non définitivement élucidé!) de la tectonique moderne: les mécanismes contrôlant les mouvements des plaques. Nous avons pu observer que, tout au long de l?histoire de la terre, les pôles de rotation des plaques (décrivant les mouvements des plaques à la surface de la terre) tendent à se répartir le long d'une bande allant du Pacifique Nord au Nord de l'Amérique du Sud, l'Atlantique Central, l'Afrique du Nord, l'Asie Centrale jusqu'au Japon. Fondamentalement, cette répartition signifie que les plaques ont tendance à fuir ce plan médian. En l'absence d'un biais méthodologique que nous n'aurions pas identifié, nous avons interprété ce phénomène comme reflétant l'influence séculaire de la Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. La Lune sur le mouvement des plaques. Le domaine océanique est la clé de voute de notre modèle. Nous avons attaché un intérêt tout particulier à le reconstruire avec beaucoup de détails. Dans ce modèle, la croûte océanique est préservée d?une reconstruction à l?autre. Le matériel crustal y est symbolisé sous la forme d?isochrones synthétiques dont nous connaissons les âges. Nous avons également reconstruit les marges (actives ou passives), les rides médio-océaniques et les subductions intra-océaniques. En utilisant ce set de données très détaillé, nous avons pu développer des modèles bathymétriques 3-D unique offrant une précision bien supérieure aux précédents.<br/><br/>Palinspastic reconstructions offer an ideal framework for geological, geographical, oceanographic and climatology studies. As historians of the Earth, "reconstructers" try to decipher the past. Since they know that continents are moving, geologists a trying to retrieve the continents distributions through ages. If Wegener?s view of continent motions was revolutionary at the beginning of the 20th century, we know, since the Early 1960?s that continents are not drifting without goal in the oceanic realm but are included in a larger set including, all at once, the oceanic and the continental crust: the tectonic plates. Unfortunately, mainly due to technical and historical issues, this idea seems not to receive a sufficient echo among our particularly concerned community. However, we are intimately convinced that, by applying specific methods and principles we can escape the traditional "Wegenerian" point of view to, at last, reach real plate tectonics. This is the main aim of this study to defend this point of view by exposing, with all necessary details, our methods and tools. Starting with the paleomagnetic and paleogeographic data classically used in reconstruction studies, we developed a modern methodology placing the plates and their kinematics at the centre of the issue. Using assemblies of continents (referred as "key assemblies") as anchors distributed all along the scope of our study (ranging from Eocene time to Cambrian time) we develop geodynamic scenarios leading from one to the next, from the past to the present. In between, lithospheric plates are progressively reconstructed by adding/removing oceanic material (symbolized by synthetic isochrones) to major continents. Except during collisions, plates are moved as single rigid entities. The only evolving elements are the plate boundaries which are preserved and follow a consistent geodynamical evolution through time and form an interconnected network through space. This "dynamic plate boundaries" approach integrates plate buoyancy factors, oceans spreading rates, subsidence patterns, stratigraphic and paleobiogeographic data, as well as major tectonic and magmatic events. It offers a good control on plate kinematics and provides severe constraints for the model. This multi-sources approach requires an efficient data management. Prior to this study, the critical mass of necessary data became a sorely surmountable obstacle. GIS and geodatabases are modern informatics tools of specifically devoted to store, analyze and manage data and associated attributes spatially referenced on the Earth. By developing the PaleoDyn database in ArcGIS software we converted the mass of scattered data offered by the geological records into valuable geodynamical information easily accessible for reconstructions creation. In the same time, by programming specific tools we, all at once, facilitated the reconstruction work (tasks automation) and enhanced the model (by highly increasing the kinematic control of plate motions thanks to plate velocity models). Based on the 340 terranes properly defined, we developed a revised set of 35 reconstructions associated to their own velocity models. Using this unique dataset we are now able to tackle major issues of the geology (such as the global sea-level variations and climate changes). We started by studying one of the major unsolved issues of the modern plate tectonics: the driving mechanism of plate motions. We observed that, all along the Earth?s history, plates rotation poles (describing plate motions across the Earth?s surface) tend to follow a slight linear distribution along a band going from the Northern Pacific through Northern South-America, Central Atlantic, Northern Africa, Central Asia up to Japan. Basically, it sighifies that plates tend to escape this median plan. In the absence of a non-identified methodological bias, we interpreted it as the potential secular influence ot the Moon on plate motions. The oceanic realms are the cornerstone of our model and we attached a particular interest to reconstruct them with many details. In this model, the oceanic crust is preserved from one reconstruction to the next. The crustal material is symbolised by the synthetic isochrons from which we know the ages. We also reconstruct the margins (active or passive), ridges and intra-oceanic subductions. Using this detailed oceanic dataset, we developed unique 3-D bathymetric models offering a better precision than all the previously existing ones.

Modelling of iron-filled magneto-active polymers with a dispersed chain-like microstructure

Magneto-active polymers are a class of smart materials commonly manufactured by mixing micron-sized iron particles in a rubber-like matrix. When cured in the presence of an externally applied magnetic field, the iron particles arrange themselves into chain-like structures that lend an overall anisotropy to the material. It has been observed through electron micrographs and X-ray tomographs that these chains are not always perfect in structure, and may have dispersion due to the conditions present during manufacturing or some undesirable material properties. We model the response of these materials to coupled magneto-mechanical loading in this paper using a probability based structure tensor that accounts for this imperfect anisotropy. The response of the matrix material is decoupled from the chain phase, though still being connected through kinematic constraints. The latter is based on the definition of a 'chain deformation gradient' and a 'chain magnetic field'. We conclude with numerical examples that demonstrate the effect of chain dispersion on the response of the material to magnetoelastic loading.

Intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging in the liver: comparison of mono-, bi- and tri-exponential modelling at 3.0-T.

PURPOSE: To determine whether a mono-, bi- or tri-exponential model best fits the intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) signal of normal livers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The pilot and validation studies were conducted in 38 and 36 patients with normal livers, respectively. The DWI sequence was performed using single-shot echoplanar imaging with 11 (pilot study) and 16 (validation study) b values. In each study, data from all patients were used to model the IVIM signal of normal liver. Diffusion coefficients (Di ± standard deviations) and their fractions (fi ± standard deviations) were determined from each model. The models were compared using the extra sum-of-squares test and information criteria. RESULTS: The tri-exponential model provided a better fit than both the bi- and mono-exponential models. The tri-exponential IVIM model determined three diffusion compartments: a slow (D1 = 1.35 ± 0.03 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f1 = 72.7 ± 0.9 %), a fast (D2 = 26.50 ± 2.49 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f2 = 13.7 ± 0.6 %) and a very fast (D3 = 404.00 ± 43.7 × 10(-3) mm(2)/s; f3 = 13.5 ± 0.8 %) diffusion compartment [results from the validation study]. The very fast compartment contributed to the IVIM signal only for b values ≤15 s/mm(2) CONCLUSION: The tri-exponential model provided the best fit for IVIM signal decay in the liver over the 0-800 s/mm(2) range. In IVIM analysis of normal liver, a third very fast (pseudo)diffusion component might be relevant. KEY POINTS: ? For normal liver, tri-exponential IVIM model might be superior to bi-exponential ? A very fast compartment (D = 404.00 ± 43.7 × 10 (-3)  mm (2) /s; f = 13.5 ± 0.8 %) is determined from the tri-exponential model ? The compartment contributes to the IVIM signal only for b ≤ 15 s/mm (2.)

Increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with age in HIV-positive men : a comparison of the D:A:D CVD risk equation and general population CVD risk equations

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Supporting Business Model Modelling: a Compromise between Creativity and Constraints

Diagrams and tools help to support task modelling in engi- neering and process management. Unfortunately they are unfit to help in a business context at a strategic level, because of the flexibility needed for creative thinking and user friendly interactions. We propose a tool which bridges the gap between freedom of actions, encouraging creativity, and constraints, allowing validation and advanced features.

Modelling the curing process in magneto-sensitive polymers: Rate-dependence and shrinkage

This paper deals with a phenomenologically motivated magneto-viscoelastic coupled finite strain framework for simulating the curing process of polymers under the application of a coupled magneto-mechanical road. Magneto-sensitive polymers are prepared by mixing micron-sized ferromagnetic particles in uncured polymers. Application of a magnetic field during the curing process causes the particles to align and form chain-like structures lending an overall anisotropy to the material. The polymer curing is a viscoelastic complex process where a transformation from fluid. to solid occurs in the course of time. During curing, volume shrinkage also occurs due to the packing of polymer chains by chemical reactions. Such reactions impart a continuous change of magneto-mechanical properties that can be modelled by an appropriate constitutive relation where the temporal evolution of material parameters is considered. To model the shrinkage during curing, a magnetic-induction-dependent approach is proposed which is based on a multiplicative decomposition of the deformation gradient into a mechanical and a magnetic-induction-dependent volume shrinkage part. The proposed model obeys the relevant laws of thermodynamics. Numerical examples, based on a generalised Mooney-Rivlin energy function, are presented to demonstrate the model capacity in the case of a magneto-viscoelastically coupled load.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-