Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Effect of orthographic processes on letter identity and letter-position encoding in dyslexic children.

The ability to identify letters and encode their position is a crucial step of the word recognition process. However and despite their word identification problem, the ability of dyslexic children to encode letter identity and letter-position within strings was not systematically investigated. This study aimed at filling this gap and further explored how letter identity and letter-position encoding is modulated by letter context in developmental dyslexia. For this purpose, a letter-string comparison task was administered to French dyslexic children and two chronological age (CA) and reading age (RA)-matched control groups. Children had to judge whether two successively and briefly presented four-letter strings were identical or different. Letter-position and letter identity were manipulated through the transposition (e.g., RTGM vs. RMGT) or substitution of two letters (e.g., TSHF vs. TGHD). Non-words, pseudo-words, and words were used as stimuli to investigate sub-lexical and lexical effects on letter encoding. Dyslexic children showed both substitution and transposition detection problems relative to CA-controls. A substitution advantage over transpositions was only found for words in dyslexic children whereas it extended to pseudo-words in RA-controls and to all type of items in CA-controls. Letters were better identified in the dyslexic group when belonging to orthographically familiar strings. Letter-position encoding was very impaired in dyslexic children who did not show any word context effect in contrast to CA-controls. Overall, the current findings point to a strong letter identity and letter-position encoding disorder in developmental dyslexia.

Anesthesia prevents auditory perceptual learning.

BACKGROUND: An auditory perceptual learning paradigm was used to investigate whether implicit memories are formed during general anesthesia. METHODS: Eighty-seven patients who had an American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status of I-III and were scheduled to undergo an elective surgery with general anesthesia were randomly assigned to one of two groups. One group received auditory stimulation during surgery, whereas the other did not. The auditory stimulation consisted of pure tones presented via headphones. The Bispectral Index level was maintained between 40 and 50 during surgery. To assess learning, patients performed an auditory frequency discrimination task after surgery, and comparisons were made between the groups. General anesthesia was induced with thiopental and maintained with a mixture of fentanyl and sevoflurane. RESULTS: There was no difference in the amount of learning between the two groups (mean +/- SD improvement: stimulated patients 9.2 +/- 11.3 Hz, controls 9.4 +/- 14.1 Hz). There was also no difference in initial thresholds (mean +/- SD initial thresholds: stimulated patients 31.1 +/- 33.4 Hz, controls 28.4 +/- 34.2 Hz). These results suggest that perceptual learning was not induced during anesthesia. No correlation between the bispectral index and the initial level of performance was found (Pearson r = -0.09, P = 0.59). CONCLUSION: Perceptual learning was not induced by repetitive auditory stimulation during anesthesia. This result may indicate that perceptual learning requires top-down processing, which is suppressed by the anesthetic.

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor knockout mice are impaired in learning, synaptic plasticity, and neurogenesis.

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is a key incretin hormone, released from intestine after a meal, producing a glucose-dependent insulin secretion. The GIP receptor (GIPR) is expressed on pyramidal neurons in the cortex and hippocampus, and GIP is synthesized in a subset of neurons in the brain. However, the role of the GIPR in neuronal signaling is not clear. In this study, we used a mouse strain with GIPR gene deletion (GIPR KO) to elucidate the role of the GIPR in neuronal communication and brain function. Compared with C57BL/6 control mice, GIPR KO mice displayed higher locomotor activity in an open-field task. Impairment of recognition and spatial learning and memory of GIPR KO mice were found in the object recognition task and a spatial water maze task, respectively. In an object location task, no impairment was found. GIPR KO mice also showed impaired synaptic plasticity in paired-pulse facilitation and a block of long-term potentiation in area CA1 of the hippocampus. Moreover, a large decrease in the number of neuronal progenitor cells was found in the dentate gyrus of transgenic mice, although the numbers of young neurons was not changed. Together the results suggest that GIP receptors play an important role in cognition, neurotransmission, and cell proliferation.

Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. METHODS/DESIGN: Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

The neuronal monocarboxylate transporter MCT2: its regulation by BDNF and its role in learning and memory

Glucose has been considered the major, if not the exclusive, energy substrate for the brain. But under certain physiological and pathological conditions other substrates, namely monocarboxylates (lactate, pyruvate and ketone bodies), can contribute significantly to satisfy brain energy demands. These monocarboxylates need to be transported across the blood-brain barrier or out of astrocytes into the extracellular space and taken up into neurons. It has been shown that monocarboxylates are transported by a family of proton-linked transporters called monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs). In the central nervous system, MCT2 is the predominant neuronal isoform and little is known about the regulation of its expression. Noradrenaline (NA), insulin and IGF-1 were previously shown to enhance the expression of MCT2 in cultured cortical neurons via a translational mechanism. Here we demonstrate that the well known brain neurotrophic factor BDNF enhances MCT2 protein expression in cultured cortical neurons and in synaptoneurosome preparations in a time- and concentrationdependent manner without affecting MCT2 mRNA levels. We observed that BDNF induced MCT2 expression by activation of MAPK as well as PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathways. Furthermore, we investigated the possible post-transcriptional regulation of MCT2 expression by a neuronal miRNA. Then, we demonstrated that BDNF enhanced MCT2 expression in the hippocampus in vivo, in parallel with some post-synaptic proteins such as PSD95 and AMPA receptor GluR2/3 subunits, and two immediate early genes Arc and Zif268 known to be expressed in conditions related to synaptic plasticity. In the last part, we demonstrated in vivo that a downregulation of hippocampal MCT2 via silencing with an appropriate lentiviral vector in mice caused an impairment of working memory without reference memory deficit. In conclusion, these results suggest that regulation of neuronal monocarboxylate transporter MCT2 expression could be a key event in the context of synaptic plasticity, allowing an adequate energy substrate supply in situations of altered synaptic efficacy. - Le glucose représente le substrat énergétique majeur pour le cerveau. Cependant, dans certaines conditions physiologiques ou pathologiques, le cerveau a la capacité d'utiliser des substrats énergéiques appartenant à la classe des monocarboxylates (lactate, pyruvate et corps cétoniques) afin de satisfaire ses besoins énergétiques. Ces monocarboxylates doivent être transportés à travers la barrière hématoencéphalique mais aussi hors des astrocytes vers l'espace extracellulaire puis re-captés par les neurones. Leur transport est assuré par une famillle de transporteurs aux monocarboxylates (MCTs). Dans le système nerveux central, les neurones expriment principalement l'isoforme MCT2 mais peu d'informations sont disponibles concernant la régulation de son expression. Il a été montré que la noradrénaline, l'insuline et l'IGF-1 induisent l'expression de MCT2 dans des cultures de neurones corticaux par un mécanisme traductionnel. Dans cette étude nous démontrons dans un premier temps que le facteur neurotrophique BDNF augmente l'expression de MCT2 à la fois dans des cultures de neurones corticaux et dans les préparations synaptoneurosomales selon un décours temporel et une gamme de concentrations propre. Aucun changement n'a été observé concernant les niveaux d'ARNm de MCT2. Nous avons observé que le BDNF induisait l'expression de MCT2 par l'activation simultanée des voies de signalisation MAPK et PI3K/Akt/mTOR. De plus, nous nous sommes intéressés à une potentielle régulation par les micro-ARNs de la synthèse de MCT2. Ensuite, nous avons démontré que le BDNF induit aussi l'expression de MCT2 dans l'hippocampe de la souris en parallèle avec d'autres protéines post-synaptiques telles que PSD95 et GluR2/3 et avec deux « immediate early genes » tels que Arc et Zif268 connus pour être exprimés dans des conditions de plasticité synaptique. Dans un dernier temps, nous avons démontré qu'une diminution d'expression de MCT2 induite par le biais d'un siRNA exprimé via un vecteur lentiviral dans l'hippocampe de souris générait des déficits de mémoire de travail sans affecter la mémoire de référence. En conclusion, ces résultats nous suggèrent que le transporteur aux monocarboxylates neuronal MCT2 serait essentiel pour l'apport énergétique du lactate pour les neurones dans des conditions de haute activité neuronale comme c'est le cas pendant les processus de plasticité synaptique.

Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Evolutionarily stable learning schedules and cumulative culture in discrete generation models.

Individual learning (e.g., trial-and-error) and social learning (e.g., imitation) are alternative ways of acquiring and expressing the appropriate phenotype in an environment. The optimal choice between using individual learning and/or social learning may be dictated by the life-stage or age of an organism. Of special interest is a learning schedule in which social learning precedes individual learning, because such a schedule is apparently a necessary condition for cumulative culture. Assuming two obligatory learning stages per discrete generation, we obtain the evolutionarily stable learning schedules for the three situations where the environment is constant, fluctuates between generations, or fluctuates within generations. During each learning stage, we assume that an organism may target the optimal phenotype in the current environment by individual learning, and/or the mature phenotype of the previous generation by oblique social learning. In the absence of exogenous costs to learning, the evolutionarily stable learning schedules are predicted to be either pure social learning followed by pure individual learning ("bang-bang" control) or pure individual learning at both stages ("flat" control). Moreover, we find for each situation that the evolutionarily stable learning schedule is also the one that optimizes the learned phenotype at equilibrium.