118 resultados para Old Statistical Account
Resumo:
Geography as a school subject is specifically thought for and by the schools. The contents of the school subject, nowadays, do not reflect the concerns and the evolution of the discipline as such. Nevertheless, official curricula set school objectives that address issues affecting the world and people's lives. These issues are coherent with the ones addressed by geography as a social science, that is to say the study of how people and their environment interact and how societies are interconnected through space. On an every day basis, Geography as a school subject is most of the time reduced to accumulating knowledge outside any given context. This knowledge may even be partially untrue or old and the related activities focus on low cognitive tensions. These practices do not contribute to the learners' understanding of the world because it does not allow them to build a geographical competence, which they. will need as future citizens in order to make responsible choices when they are confronted to questions related to how the locations of human and physical features are influenced by each other and how they interact across space. The central part of the text relies on the ideas and the processes discussed in the publications, which constitute the published file; it is divided into two parts. The first part (chapter 4) presents a didactic approach, which gives meaningful insights into Geography as a school subject and shows a brief account of the theoretical background that supports it. This socio-constructivist approach relies on the main following features: a priming stage (élément déclencheur), which presents geographical knowledge as an issue to be explored, discussed or solved; the issue is given to learners;. the planning of the teaching-learning sequence in small units launched by the main issue in the priming stage ; the interconnections of geographical knowledge with integrative concepts ; the synthetic stage or reporting stage where final concepts and knowledge are put together in order to be learned. Such an approach allows learners to re-invest the knowledge they have built themselves. This knowledge is organised by geographical integrative concepts, which represent true thinking operative tools and with which key issues in the geographical thinking are associated. The second part of the text (chapter 5) displays the didactic principles that governed the conception of the new initial training course for the future upper secondary school teachers at the HEP Vaud. The ambition of this course is to prepare future teachers to plan and realize the teaching of geography that provides pupils with the tools to understand better how people and their environment interact and how societies are interconnected through space. One of the tools for the teachers is the conceptual framework, whose most salient interest is to be relevant at every stage of the preparation and planning of the teaching, including the necessary epistemological reflection that should always be present. The synthesis of the text starts with a short account of the first evaluation of the new course. Various reflections on the future concerns and issues, that the didactics and methodology of Geography will be confronted with, constitute the synthesis.
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This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.
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PURPOSE: Most RB1 mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RB1 gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. METHODS: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RB1 loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RB1 screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.
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OBJECTIVES: Studies of cognition in bipolar disorder (BD) have reported impairments in processing speed, working memory, episodic memory, and executive function, but they have primarily focused on young and middle-aged adults. In such studies, the severity of cognitive deficits increases with the duration of illness. Therefore, one would expect more pronounced deficits in patients with longstanding BD. The first aim of the present study was to determine the pattern and the magnitude of cognitive impairment in older euthymic BD patients. The second aim was to explore the interrelationship between these cognitive deficits and determine whether they reflect a single core impairment or the co-occurrence of independent cognitive deficits. METHODS: Twenty-two euthymic elderly BD patients and 22 controls, matched for gender, age, and education, underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment. RESULTS: Compared to controls, BD patients had significantly reduced performance in processing speed, working memory, verbal fluency, and episodic memory, but not in executive function. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that verbal fluency and working memory impairments were fully mediated by changes in processing speed. This was not the case for the episodic memory dysfunction. CONCLUSION: The cognitive profile in older euthymic BD cases is similar to the one described in younger BD cohorts. Our results further suggest that impaired processing speed plays a major role in the cognitive changes observed in BD patients except for deficits in episodic memory, thus providing strong evidence that processing speed and episodic memory are two core deficits in elderly BD patients.
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Nowadays, the joint exploitation of images acquired daily by remote sensing instruments and of images available from archives allows a detailed monitoring of the transitions occurring at the surface of the Earth. These modifications of the land cover generate spectral discrepancies that can be detected via the analysis of remote sensing images. Independently from the origin of the images and of type of surface change, a correct processing of such data implies the adoption of flexible, robust and possibly nonlinear method, to correctly account for the complex statistical relationships characterizing the pixels of the images. This Thesis deals with the development and the application of advanced statistical methods for multi-temporal optical remote sensing image processing tasks. Three different families of machine learning models have been explored and fundamental solutions for change detection problems are provided. In the first part, change detection with user supervision has been considered. In a first application, a nonlinear classifier has been applied with the intent of precisely delineating flooded regions from a pair of images. In a second case study, the spatial context of each pixel has been injected into another nonlinear classifier to obtain a precise mapping of new urban structures. In both cases, the user provides the classifier with examples of what he believes has changed or not. In the second part, a completely automatic and unsupervised method for precise binary detection of changes has been proposed. The technique allows a very accurate mapping without any user intervention, resulting particularly useful when readiness and reaction times of the system are a crucial constraint. In the third, the problem of statistical distributions shifting between acquisitions is studied. Two approaches to transform the couple of bi-temporal images and reduce their differences unrelated to changes in land cover are studied. The methods align the distributions of the images, so that the pixel-wise comparison could be carried out with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the second method can deal with images from different sensors, no matter the dimensionality of the data nor the spectral information content. This opens the doors to possible solutions for a crucial problem in the field: detecting changes when the images have been acquired by two different sensors.
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Summary : Mining activities produce enormous amounts of waste material known as tailings which are composed of fine to medium size particles. These tailings often contain sulfides, which oxidation can lead to acid and metal contamination of water; therefore they need to be remediated. In this work a tailings bioremediation approach was investigated by an interdisciplinary study including geochemistry, mineralogy and microbiology. The aim of the work was to study the effect of the implementation of wetland above oxidizing tailings on the hydrogeology and the biogeochemical element cycles, and to assess the system evolution over time. To reach these goals, biogeochemical processes occurring in a marine shore tailings deposit were investigated. The studied tailings deposit is located at the Bahìa de Ite, Pacific Ocean, southern Peru, where between 1940 and 1996 the tailings were discharged from the two porphyry copper mines Cuajone and Toquepala. After the end of deposition, a remediation approach was initiated in 1997 with a wetland implementation above the oxidizing tailings. Around 90% of the tailings deposits (total 16 km2) were thus remediated, except the central delta area and some areas close to the shoreline. The multi-stable isotope study showed that the tailings were saturated with fresh water in spite of the marine setting, due to the high hydraulic gradient resulting from the wetland implementation. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was the major source of SO4 2-, C1-, Na+, Fe2+, and Mn2+ input into the tailings at the original shelf-seawater interface. The geochemical study (aquatic geochemistry and X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and sequential extractions from the solid fraction) showed that iron and sulfur oxidation were the main processes in the non-remediated tailings, which showed a top a low-pH oxidation zone with strong accumulation of efflorescent salts at the surface due to capillary upward transport of heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Cd, Co, and Ni) in the arid climate. The study showed also that the implementation of the wetland resulted in very low concentrations of heavy metals in solution (mainly under the detection limit) due to the near neutral pH and more reducing conditions (100-150 mV). The heavy metals, which were taken from solution, precipitated as hydroxides and sulfides or were bound to organic matter. The bacterial community composition analysis by Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (T-RFLP) and cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes combined with a detailed statistical analysis revealed a high correlation between the bacterial distribution and the geochemical variables. Acidophilic autotrophic oxidizing bacteria were dominating the oxidizing tailings, whereas neutrophilic and heterotrophic reducing bacteria were driving the biogeochemical processes in the remediated tailings below the wetland. At the subsurface of the remediated tailings, an iron cycling was highlighted with oxidation and reduction processes due to micro-aerophilic niches provided by the plant rhizosphere in this overall reducing environment. The in situ bioremediation experiment showed that the main parameter to take into account for the effectiveness was the water table and chemistry which controls the system. The constructed remediation cells were more efficient and rapid in metal removal when saturation conditions were available. This study showed that the bioremediation by wetland implementation could be an effective and rapid treatment for some sulfidic mine tailings deposits. However, the water saturation of the tailings has to be managed on a long-term basis in order to guarantee stability. Résumé : L'activité minière produit d'énormes quantités de déchets géologiques connus sous le nom de « tailings » composées de particules de taille fine à moyenne. Ces déchets contiennent souvent des sulfures dont l'oxydation conduit à la formation d'effluents acides contaminés en métaux, d'où la nécessité d'effectuer une remédiation des sites de stockage concernés. Le but de ce travail est dans un premier temps d'étudier l'effet de la bio-remédiation d'un dépôt de tailings oxydés sur l'hydrogéologie du système et les cycles biogéochimiques des éléments et en second lieu, d'évaluer l'évolution du processus de remédiation dans le temps. Le site étudié dans ce travail est situé dans la Bahía de Ite, au sud du Pérou, au bord de l'Océan Pacifique. Les déchets miniers en question sont déposés dans un environnement marin. De 1940 à 1996, les déchets de deux mines de porphyre cuprifère - Cuajone et Toquepala - ont été acheminés sur le site via la rivière Locumba. En 1997, une première remédiation a été initiée avec la construction d'une zone humide sur les tailings. Depuis, environ 90% de la surface du dépôt (16 km2) a été traité, les parties restantes étant la zone centrale du delta du Locumba et certaines zones proches de la plage. Malgré la proximité de l'océan, les études isotopiques menées dans le cadre de ce travail ont montré que les tailings étaient saturés en eau douce. Cette saturation est due à la pression hydraulique résultant de la mise en place des zones humides. Un écoulement d'eau souterrain sous-marin a été à détecté à l'interface entre les résidus et l'ancien fond marin. En raison de la géologie locale, il constitue une source d'entrée de SO4 2-, Cl-, Na+, FeZ+, et Mn2+ dans le système. L'analyse de la géochimie aquatique, la Diffraction aux Rayons X (XRD) et l'extraction séquentielle ont montré que l'oxydation du fer et .des sulfures est le principal processus se produisant dans les déchets non remédiés. Ceci a entraîné le développement d'une zone d'oxydation à pH bas induisant une forte accumulation des sels efflorescents, conséquence de la migration capillaire des métaux lourds (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Cd, Co et Ni) de la solution vers la surface dans ce climat aride. Cette étude a montré également que la construction de la zone humide a eu comme résultats une précipitation des métaux dans des phases minérales en raison du pH neutre et des conditions réductrices (100-150mV). Les métaux lourds ont précipité sous la forme d'hydroxydes et de sulfures ou sont adsorbés à la matière organique. L'analyse de la composition de la communauté bactérienne à l'aide la technique T-RFLP (Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) et par le clonage/séquençage des gènes de l'ARNr 16S a été combinée à une statistique détaillée. Cette dernière a révélé une forte corrélation entre la distribution de bactéries spécifiques et la géochimie : Les bactéries autotrophes acidophiles dominent dans les déchets oxydés non remédiés, tandis que des bactéries hétérotrophes neutrophiles ont mené les processus microbiens dans les déchets remédiés sous la zone humide. Sous la surface de la zone humide, nos analyses ont également mis en évidence un cycle du fer par des processus d'oxydoréduction rendus possibles par la présence de niches micro-aérées par la rhizosphère dans cet environnement réducteur. L'expérience de bio-remédiation in situ a montré que les paramètres clés qui contrôlent l'efficacité du traitement sont le niveau de la nappe aquifère et la chimie de l'eau. Les cellules de remédiation se sont montrées plus efficaces et plus rapides lorsque le système a pu être saturé en eau. Finalement, cette étude a montré que la bio-remédiation de déchets miniers par la construction de zones humides est un moyen de traitement efficace, rapide et peu coûteux. Cependant, la saturation en eau du système doit être gérée sur le long terme afin de garantir la stabilité de l'ensemble du système.
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Swain corrects the chi-square overidentification test (i.e., likelihood ratio test of fit) for structural equation models whethr with or without latent variables. The chi-square statistic is asymptotically correct; however, it does not behave as expected in small samples and/or when the model is complex (cf. Herzog, Boomsma, & Reinecke, 2007). Thus, particularly in situations where the ratio of sample size (n) to the number of parameters estimated (p) is relatively small (i.e., the p to n ratio is large), the chi-square test will tend to overreject correctly specified models. To obtain a closer approximation to the distribution of the chi-square statistic, Swain (1975) developed a correction; this scaling factor, which converges to 1 asymptotically, is multiplied with the chi-square statistic. The correction better approximates the chi-square distribution resulting in more appropriate Type 1 reject error rates (see Herzog & Boomsma, 2009; Herzog, et al., 2007).
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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To update the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and to identify factors associated with vitamin D status in the Swiss adult population. METHODS: Data from the 2010-2011 Swiss Study on Salt intake, a population-based study in the Swiss population, was used. Vitamin D concentration in serum was measured by liquid chromatography- tandem mass spectrometry. Major factors that influence vitamin D levels were taken into account. Survey statistical procedures were used to estimate means and prevalences of vitamin D levels and status. Monthly-specific tertiles of vitamin D and ordinal logistic regression were used to determine the associations of covariates of interest with vitamin D status. RESULTS: The prevalences of vitamin D insufficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D: 20-29.9 ng/ml) and deficiency (<20 ng/ml) were the highest in the January-March period; 26.4% (95%CI: 21.6-31.7) and 61.6% (95%CI: 56.0-67.0), respectively. In the same period, more than 9 of ten men were vitamin D insufficient or deficient. Each unit increase of Body Mass Index was associated with an 8% decreased likelihood of being in a higher vitamin D tertiles. Oral contraceptive, altitude, urinary excretion of calcium, use of vitamin D supplement or treatment, high wine consumption, physical activity were associated with vitamin D tertiles. Compared to the French-speaking region, the Italian-speaking region was independently associated with a higher likelihood of being in higher vitamin D tertiles (OR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.14-2.43). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of vitamin D are common among Swiss adults, in particular during winter months and outside the Italian-speaking region.
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OBJECTIVES: Retinoblastoma is the most frequent intraocular malignancy in children. Early diagnosis is essential for globe salvage and patient survival. The aim of our study was to determine how time to diagnosis of retinoblastoma has evolved over a 40-year period in Switzerland. METHOD AND PATIENTS: A retrospective study of 139 Swiss patients with retinoblastoma was performed comparing 3 periods: (1) 1963-1983; (2) 1984-1993; and (3) 1994-2004. Factors taken into account were gender, laterality of retinoblastoma, age at first symptoms, type and first observer of symptoms, time to diagnosis, age at diagnosis, disease stage, and family history. RESULTS: Thirty-seven patients (26.6%) were treated in period 1, 44 (31.7%) in period 2, and 58 (41.7%) in period 3. Overall, the diagnostic interval decreased in a significant way from 6.97 months in period 1 to 3.58 in period 2 and to 2.25 in period 3. When looking separately at unilateral and bilateral disease, the decrease of the diagnostic interval remained statistically significant in unilateral retinoblastoma; there was also a significant reduction in the number of patients with advanced group E disease (Murphree classification) (61.5% in period 1, 46.7% in period 2, 22.2% in period 3). In bilateral disease, the same observations were made to a lesser extent. However, there were no cases with group E disease in 10 patients with positive family history. Leukocoria (48.2%) and strabismus (20.1%) were the 2 most frequent symptoms throughout the 3 periods. The only factors that statistically influenced the chances of having a diagnosis of group E disease were the diagnostic interval and period of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Progress has been made in the diagnosis of retinoblastoma in Switzerland, notably in unilateral disease. Improvement to a lesser extent has also been observed in bilateral cases but without statistical significance. Greater effort is needed to teach physicians-in-training to recognize the importance of ocular symptoms and refer patients earlier.
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BACKGROUND: Risks of significant infant drug exposurethrough breastmilk are poorly defined for many drugs, and largescalepopulation data are lacking. We used population pharmacokinetics(PK) modeling to predict fluoxetine exposure levels ofinfants via mother's milk in a simulated population of 1000 motherinfantpairs.METHODS: Using our original data on fluoxetine PK of 25breastfeeding women, a population PK model was developed withNONMEM and parameters, including milk concentrations, wereestimated. An exponential distribution model was used to account forindividual variation. Simulation random and distribution-constrainedassignment of doses, dosing time, feeding intervals and milk volumewas conducted to generate 1000 mother-infant pairs with characteristicssuch as the steady-state serum concentrations (Css) and infantdose relative to the maternal weight-adjusted dose (relative infantdose: RID). Full bioavailability and a conservative point estimate of1-month-old infant CYP2D6 activity to be 20% of the adult value(adjusted by weigth) according to a recent study, were assumed forinfant Css calculations.RESULTS: A linear 2-compartment model was selected as thebest model. Derived parameters, including milk-to-plasma ratios(mean: 0.66; SD: 0.34; range, 0 - 1.1) were consistent with the valuesreported in the literature. The estimated RID was below 10% in >95%of infants. The model predicted median infant-mother Css ratio was0.096 (range 0.035 - 0.25); literature reported mean was 0.07 (range0-0.59). Moreover, the predicted incidence of infant-mother Css ratioof >0.2 was less than 1%.CONCLUSION: Our in silico model prediction is consistent withclinical observations, suggesting that substantial systemic fluoxetineexposure in infants through human milk is rare, but further analysisshould include active metabolites. Our approach may be valid forother drugs. [supported by CIHR and Swiss National Science Foundation(SNSF)]