Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score > 2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. RESULTS: When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score's accuracy to predict functional outcome despite having an independent prognostic value. More selected radiological parameters applied in specific subgroups of stroke patients may add prognostic value of multimodal imaging.

Longitudinal analysis of patterns and predictors of changes in self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is a dynamic process, however, changes in adherence behavior over time are insufficiently understood. METHODS: Data on self-reported missed doses of cART was collected every 6 months in Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We identified behavioral groups associated with specific cART adherence patterns using trajectory analyses. Repeated measures logistic regression identified predictors of changes in adherence between consecutive visits. RESULTS: Six thousand seven hundred nine individuals completed 49,071 adherence questionnaires [median 8 (interquartile range: 5-10)] during a median follow-up time of 4.5 years (interquartile range: 2.4-5.1). Individuals were clustered into 4 adherence groups: good (51.8%), worsening (17.4%), improving (17.6%), and poor adherence (13.2%). Independent predictors of worsening adherence were younger age, basic education, loss of a roommate, starting intravenous drug use, increasing alcohol intake, depression, longer time with HIV, onset of lipodystrophy, and changing care provider. Independent predictors of improvements in adherence were regimen simplification, changing class of cART, less time on cART, and starting comedications. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment, behavioral changes, and life events influence patterns of drug intake in HIV patients. Clinical care providers should routinely monitor factors related to worsening adherence and intervene early to reduce the risk of treatment failure and drug resistance.

Effects of social support on the clinical course of Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Social support has been found to be protective from adverse health effects of psychological stress. We hypothesized that higher social support would predict a more favorable course of Crohn's disease (CD) directly (main effect hypothesis) and via moderating other prognostic factors (buffer hypothesis). METHODS: Within a multicenter cohort study we observed 597 adults with CD for 18 months. We assessed social support using the ENRICHD Social Support Inventory. Flares, nonresponse to therapy, complications, and extraintestinal manifestations were recorded as a combined endpoint indicating disease deterioration. We controlled for several demographic, psychosocial, and clinical variables of potential prognostic importance. We used multivariate binary logistic regression to estimate the overall effect of social support on the odds of disease deterioration and to explore main and moderator effects of social support by probing interactions with other predictors. RESULTS: The odds of disease deterioration decreased by 1.5 times (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.9) for an increase of one standard deviation (SD) of social support. In case of low body mass index (BMI) (i.e., 1 SD below the mean or <19 kg/m(2)), the odds decreased by 1.8 times for an increase of 1 SD of social support. In case of low social support, the odds increased by 2.1 times for a decrease of 1 SD of BMI. Low BMI was not predictive under high social support. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that elevated social support may favorably affect the clinical course of CD, particularly in patients with low BMI. (Inflamm Bowel Dis 2010;).

Factors associated with the emergence of K65R in patients with HIV-1 infection treated with combination antiretroviral therapy containing tenofovir.

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse-transcriptase mutation K65R is a single-point mutation that has become more frequent after increased use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We aimed to identify predictors for the emergence of K65R, using clinical data and genotypic resistance tests from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: A total of 222 patients with genotypic resistance tests performed while receiving treatment with TDF-containing regimens were stratified by detectability of K65R (K65R group, 42 patients; undetected K65R group, 180 patients). Patient characteristics at start of that treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: In an adjusted logistic regression, TDF treatment with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors and/or didanosine was associated with the emergence of K65R, whereas the presence of any of the thymidine analogue mutations D67N, K70R, T215F, or K219E/Q was protective. The previously undescribed mutational pattern K65R/G190S/Y181C was observed in 6 of 21 patients treated with efavirenz and TDF. Salvage therapy after TDF treatment was started for 36 patients with K65R and for 118 patients from the wild-type group. Proportions of patients attaining human immunodeficiency virus type 1 loads <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks of continuous treatment were similar for the K65R group (44.1%; 95% confidence interval, 27.2%-62.1%) and the wild-type group (51.9%; 95% confidence interval, 42.0%-61.6%). CONCLUSIONS: In settings where thymidine analogue mutations are less likely to be present, such as at start of first-line therapy or after extended treatment interruptions, combinations of TDF with other K65R-inducing components or with efavirenz or nevirapine may carry an enhanced risk of the emergence of K65R. The finding of a distinct mutational pattern selected by treatment with TDF and efavirenz suggests a potential fitness interaction between K65R and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-induced mutations.

Self-reported alcohol consumption and its association with adherence and outcome of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.

Influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival following cardiac surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In our institutional database we retrospectively evaluated medical records of 4732 adult patients who received open-heart surgery from January 1995 through December 2005. The predictive factors for DSWI were determined using logistic regression analysis. Then, each patient with deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) was matched with 2 controls without DSWI, according to the risk factors identified previously. After checking balance resulting from matching, short-term mortality was compared between groups using a paired test, and long-term survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Overall, 4732 records were analyzed. The mean age of the investigated population was 69.3±12.8 years. DSWI occurred in 74 (1.56%) patients. Significant independent predictive factors for deep sternal infections were active smoking (OR 2.19, CI95 1.35-3.53, p=0.001), obesity (OR 1.96, CI95 1.20-3.21, p=0.007), and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR 2.09, CI95 1.05-10.06, p=0.016). Mean follow-up in the matched set was 125 months, IQR 99-162. After matching, in-hospital mortality was higher in the DSWI group (8.1% vs. 2.7% p=0.03), but DSWI was not an independent predictor of long-term survival (adjusted HR 1.5, CI95 0.7-3.2, p=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The results presented in this report clearly show that post-sternotomy deep wound infection does not influence long-term survival in an adult general cardio-surgical patient population.

Imputation in data fusion of heterogeneous data sets a model-based numerical experiment

Given the very large amount of data obtained everyday through population surveys, much of the new research again could use this information instead of collecting new samples. Unfortunately, relevant data are often disseminated into different files obtained through different sampling designs. Data fusion is a set of methods used to combine information from different sources into a single dataset. In this article, we are interested in a specific problem: the fusion of two data files, one of which being quite small. We propose a model-based procedure combining a logistic regression with an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Results show that despite the lack of data, this procedure can perform better than standard matching procedures.

Predicting positive food challenges at the introduction of nuts in sensitised children

Rationale: Children with atopic diseases in early life are frequently found with positive IgE tests to nuts, without a history of previous ingestion. We aimed to identify risk factors for reactions to nuts at their first introduction. Methods: A detailed retrospective case note and database analysis was performed. Inclusion criteria were: patients aged 3 to 16 years who had had a standardized food challenge to peanut and/or tree nuts due to primary sensitisation to the nut (positive specific IgE or SPT). A detailed assessment was performed of factors relating to food challenge outcome with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 98 food challenges (48% peanut, 52% tree nut) with 29 positive, 67 negative and 2 inconclusive challenges. A positive maternal history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l were strongly associated with a significantly increased risk of a positive food challenge (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.28 to 9.81; and OR 4.82; 95% CI 1.57 to 14.86; respectively). There was no significant association between the type of nut, age, presence of other food allergies, paternal or sibling atopic history, other atopic conditions or severity of previous reaction to other foods. Conclusions: We have demonstrated an association between the presence of a maternal atopic history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l, and a significant increase in the likelihood of a positive food challenge in children with primary sensitisation to nuts. Although requiring further prospective validation we suggest these easily identifiable components should be considered when deciding the need for a nut challenge.

Adolescent survivors of childhood cancer: are they vulnerable for psychological distress?

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to (i) evaluate psychological distress in adolescent survivors of childhood cancer and compare them to siblings and a norm population; (ii) compare the severity of distress of distressed survivors and siblings with that of psychotherapy patients; and (iii) determine risk factors for psychological distress in survivors. METHODS: We sent a questionnaire to all childhood cancer survivors aged <16 years when diagnosed, who had survived ≥ 5 years and were aged 16-19 years at the time of study. Our control groups were same-aged siblings, a norm population, and psychotherapy patients. Psychological distress was measured with the Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18) assessing somatization, depression, anxiety, and a global severity index (GSI). Participants with a T-score ≥ 57 were defined as distressed. We used logistic regression to determine risk factors. RESULTS: We evaluated the BSI-18 in 407 survivors and 102 siblings. Fifty-two survivors (13%) and 11 siblings (11%) had scores above the distress threshold (T ≥ 57). Distressed survivors scored significantly higher in somatization (p=0.027) and GSI (p=0.016) than distressed siblings, and also scored higher in somatization (p ≤ 0.001) and anxiety (p=0.002) than psychotherapy patients. In the multivariable regression, psychological distress was associated with female sex, self-reported late effects, and low perceived parental support. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of survivors did not report psychological distress. However, the severity of distress of distressed survivors exceeded that of distressed siblings and psychotherapy patients. Systematic psychological follow-up can help to identify survivors at risk and support them during the challenging period of adolescence.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Association between non-medical prescription drug use and personality traits among young Swiss men.

AIM: To investigate the relationships between six classes of non-medical prescription drug use (NMPDU) and five personality traits. METHODS: Representative baseline data on 5777 Swiss men around 20 years old were taken from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. NMPDU of opioid analgesics, sedatives/sleeping pills, anxiolytics, antidepressants, beta-blockers and stimulants over the previous 12 months was measured. Personality was assessed using the Brief Sensation Seeking Scale; attention deficit-hyperactivity (ADH) using the Adult Attention-Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder Self-Report Scale; and aggression/hostility, anxiety/neuroticism and sociability using the Zuckerman-Kuhlmann Personality Questionnaire. Logistic regression models for each personality trait were fitted, as were seven multiple logistic regression models predicting each NMPDU adjusting for all personality traits and covariates. RESULTS: Around 10.7% of participants reported NMPDU in the last 12 months, with opioid analgesics most prevalent (6.7%), then sedatives/sleeping pills (3.0%), anxiolytics (2.7%), and stimulants (1.9%). Sensation seeking (SS), ADH, aggression/hostility, and anxiety/neuroticism (but not sociability) were significantly positively associated with at least one drug class (OR varied between 1.24, 95%CI: 1.04-1.48 and 1.86, 95%CI: 1.47-2.35). Aggression/hostility, anxiety/neuroticism and ADH were significantly and positively related to almost all NMPDU. Sociability was inversely related to NMPDU of sedatives/sleeping pills and anxiolytics (OR, 0.70; 95%CI: 0.51-0.96 and OR, 0.64; 95%CI: 0.46-0.90, respectively). SS was related only to stimulant use (OR, 1.74; 95%CI: 1.14-2.65). CONCLUSION: People with higher scores for ADH, aggression/hostility and anxiety/neuroticism are at higher risk of NMPDU. Sociability appeared to protect from NMPDU of sedatives/sleeping pills and anxiolytics.

Theory of mind and social functioning in first episode psychosis

There is evidence of associations between social functioning and theory of mind performance and between social functioning and negative symptoms in chronic psychosis. This study investigates these associations in those with first episode psychosis who are unaffected by factors related to long-term mental illness. Our first hypothesis states that there is an association between theory of mind and social functioning. The second hypothesis states that there is no association between symptoms of psychosis and social functioning. Methods. Fifty-two individuals with first episode psychosis were assessed for social functioning, theory of mind ability (using the Hinting test with verbal stimuli and the Visual Cartoon test with pictorial stimuli), and symptoms of psychosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations. Results. Social functioning and theory of mind were associated when measured by the Hinting test (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.08, 2.66), but not with the Visual Cartoon test (ToM jokes OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.15, 2.53). There was no association between social functioning and symptoms (psychotic symptoms; OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.81, 1.12; selected negative symptoms; OR 1.33, 95% CI 0.78, 2.25). Conclusions. Theory of mind assessed by verbal stimuli is associated with social functioning in a population with first episode psychosis. These findings may be related to language disorders in psychosis.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Clara cell protein and surfactant protein B in garbage collectors and in wastewater workers exposed to bioaerosols

OBJECTIVES: Inhalation of bioaerosols has been hypothesised to cause "toxic pneumonitis" that should increase lung epithelial permeability at the bronchioloalveolar level. Serum Clara cell protein (CC16) and serum surfactant protein B (SPB) have been proposed as sensitive markers of lung epithelial injury. This study was aimed at looking for increased lung epithelial permeability by determining CC16 and SPB in workers exposed to bioaerosols from wastewater or garbage. METHODS: Subjects (778 wastewater, garbage and control workers; participation 61%) underwent a medical examination, lung function tests [American Thoracic Society (ATS) criteria], and determination of CC16 and SPB. Symptoms of endotoxin exposure and several potential confounders (age, gender, smoking, kidney function, obesity) were looked for. Results were examined with multiple linear or logistic regression. RESULTS: Exposure to bioaerosols increased CC16 concentration in the wastewater workers. No effect of exposure on SPB was found. No clue to work-related respiratory diseases was found. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in CC16 in serum supports the hypothesis that bioaerosols cause subclinical "toxic pneumonitis", even at low exposure. [Authors]

Mirror image atrial dilatation in adult patients with atrial fibrillation and congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely regarded to be initiated from left atrial (LA) dilatation, with subsequent dilatation of the right atrium (RA) in those who progress to chronic AF. We hypothesized that in adult patients with right-sided congenital heart disease (CHD) and AF, RA dilatation will predominate with subsequent dilatation of the left atrium, as a mirror image. METHODS: Adult patients with diagnosis of right-sided, ASD or left-sided CHD who had undergone an echocardiographic study and electrocardiographic recording in 2007 were included. RA and LA area were measured from the apical view. AF was diagnosed from a 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter recording. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of AF and linear regression models were performed to measure relationship between RA and LA area and AF. RESULTS: A total of 291 patients were included in the study. Multivariate analysis showed that age (p=0.0001), RA (p=0.025) and LA area (p=0.0016) were significantly related to AF. In patients with pure left-sided pathologies, there was progressive and predominant LA dilatation that paralleled the development of AF from none to paroxysmal to chronic AF. In patients with pure right-sided pathologies, there was a mirror image of progressive and predominant RA dilatation with the development of AF. CONCLUSION: We observed a mirror image atrial dilatation in patients with right sided disease and AF. This may provide novel mechanistic insight as to the origin of AF in these patients and deserves further studying in the form of targeted electrophysiological studies.