Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Reproducibility of species lists, visual cover estimates and frequency methods for recording high mountain vegetation

Question: When multiple observers record the same spatial units of alpine vegetation, how much variation is there in the records and what are the consequences of this variation for monitoring schemes to detect change? Location: One test summit in Switzerland (Alps) and one test summit in Scotland (Cairngorm Mountains). Method: Eight observers used the GLORIA protocols for species composition and visual cover estimates in percent on large summit sections (>100 m2) and species composition and frequency in nested quadrats (1 m2). Results: The multiple records from the same spatial unit for species composition and species cover showed considerable variation in the two countries. Estimates of pseudoturnover of composition and coefficients of variation of cover estimates for vascular plant species in 1m x 1m quadrats showed less variation than in previously published reports whereas our results in larger sections were broadly in line with previous reports. In Scotland, estimates for bryophytes and lichens were more variable than for vascular plants. Conclusions: Statistical power calculations indicated that, unless large numbers of plots were used, changes in cover or frequency were only likely to be detected for abundant species (exceeding 10% cover) or if relative changes were large (50% or more). Lower variation could be reached with the point methods and with larger numbers of small plots. However, as summits often strongly differ from each other, supplementary summits cannot be considered as a way of increasing statistical power without introducing a supplementary component of variance into the analysis and hence the power calculations.

One-year prevalence of low back pain in two Swiss regions: estimates from the population participating in the 1992-1993 MONICA project.

STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was performed. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent of low back pain as a public health problem. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Health surveys converge on very high estimates of low back pain in general populations, but few studies have included severity criteria in their definition and conclusions. Because it is unlikely that interventions will influence the prevalence of minimal and infrequent symptoms, greater attention should be paid to characteristics of low back pain that indicate some impact on the life of survey respondents. METHODS: Two regions participated in the MONICA (MONitoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) project in Switzerland. Participants randomly selected from the general population completed a standard self-administered questionnaire on cardiovascular risk factors. A special section on low back pain was added in the third (1992-1993) MONICA survey and completed by 3227 participants. RESULTS: A regional difference found in the 12-month prevalence rate disappeared with the inclusion of severity criteria. Low back pain over more than seven cumulated days was reported among men by 20.2% (age range, 25-34 years) to 28.5% (age range, 65-74 years), respectively, among women by 31.1% to 38.5%. Similar rates of reduction in activity (professional, housekeeping, and leisure time) and medical consultation (conventional and nonconventional) motivated by low back pain characterized the two participating regions. The cumulative duration of pain was related to all the indicators showing the impact of low back pain on everyday life. CONCLUSIONS: Determining the cumulative duration of low back pain over the preceding year is a straightforward task, and a cutoff at 1 week seems appropriate for distinguishing between low- and high-impact low back pain.

3-year follow-up results of bone mineral content and density after a school-based physical activity randomized intervention trial.

BACKGROUND: As an important modifiable lifestyle factor in osteoporosis prevention, physical activity has been shown to positively influence bone mass accrual during growth. We have previously shown that a nine month general school based physical activity intervention increased bone mineral content (BMC) and density (aBMD) in primary school children. From a public health perspective, a major key issue is whether these effects persist during adolescence. We therefore measured BMC and aBMD three years after cessation of the intervention to investigate whether the beneficial short-term effects persisted. METHODS: All children from 28 randomly selected first and fifth grade classes (intervention group (INT): 16 classes, n=297; control group (CON): 12 classes, n=205) who had participated in KISS (Kinder-und Jugendsportstudie) were contacted three years after cessation of the intervention program. The intervention included daily physical education with daily impact loading activities over nine months. Measurements included anthropometry, vigorous physical activity (VPA) by accelerometers, and BMC/aBMD for total body, femoral neck, total hip, and lumbar spine by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Sex- and age-adjusted Z-scores of BMC or aBMD at follow-up were regressed on intervention (1 vs. 0), the respective Z-score at baseline, gender, follow-up height and weight, pubertal stage at follow-up, previous and current VPA, adjusting for clustering within schools. RESULTS: 377 of 502 (75%) children participated in baseline DXA measurements and of those, 214 (57%) participated to follow-up. At follow-up INT showed significantly higher Z-scores of BMC at total body (adjusted group difference: 0.157 units (0.031-0.283); p=0.015), femoral neck (0.205 (0.007-0.402); p=0.042) and at total hip (0.195 (0.036 to 0.353); p=0.016) and higher Z-scores of aBMD for total body (0.167 (0.016 to 0.317); p=0.030) compared to CON, representing 6-8% higher values for children in the INT. No differences could be found for the remaining bone parameters. For the subpopulation with baseline VPA (n=163), effect sizes became stronger after baseline VPA adjustment. After adjustment for baseline and current VPA (n=101), intervention effects were no longer significant, while effect sizes remained the same as without adjustment for VPA. CONCLUSION: Beneficial effects on BMC of a nine month general physical activity intervention appeared to persist over three years. Part of the maintained effects may be explained by current physical activity.

Estimating the apparent transverse relaxation time (R2(*)) from images with different contrasts (ESTATICS) reduces motion artifacts.

Relaxation rates provide important information about tissue microstructure. Multi-parameter mapping (MPM) estimates multiple relaxation parameters from multi-echo FLASH acquisitions with different basic contrasts, i.e., proton density (PD), T1 or magnetization transfer (MT) weighting. Motion can particularly affect maps of the apparent transverse relaxation rate R2(*), which are derived from the signal of PD-weighted images acquired at different echo times. To address the motion artifacts, we introduce ESTATICS, which robustly estimates R2(*) from images even when acquired with different basic contrasts. ESTATICS extends the fitted signal model to account for inherent contrast differences in the PDw, T1w and MTw images. The fit was implemented as a conventional ordinary least squares optimization and as a robust fit with a small or large confidence interval. These three different implementations of ESTATICS were tested on data affected by severe motion artifacts and data with no prominent motion artifacts as determined by visual assessment or fast optical motion tracking. ESTATICS improved the quality of the R2(*) maps and reduced the coefficient of variation for both types of data-with average reductions of 30% when severe motion artifacts were present. ESTATICS can be applied to any protocol comprised of multiple 2D/3D multi-echo FLASH acquisitions as used in the general research and clinical setting.

Different colors of light lead to different adaptation and activation as determined by high-density EEG.

Light adaptation is crucial for coping with the varying levels of ambient light. Using high-density electroencephalography (EEG), we investigated how adaptation to light of different colors affects brain responsiveness. In a within-subject design, sixteen young participants were adapted first to dim white light and then to blue, green, red, or white bright light (one color per session in a randomized order). Immediately after both dim and bright light adaptation, we presented brief light pulses and recorded event-related potentials (ERPs). We analyzed ERP response strengths and brain topographies and determined the underlying sources using electrical source imaging. Between 150 and 261ms after stimulus onset, the global field power (GFP) was higher after dim than bright light adaptation. This effect was most pronounced with red light and localized in the frontal lobe, the fusiform gyrus, the occipital lobe and the cerebellum. After bright light adaptation, within the first 100ms after light onset, stronger responses were found than after dim light adaptation for all colors except for red light. Differences between conditions were localized in the frontal lobe, the cingulate gyrus, and the cerebellum. These results indicate that very short-term EEG brain responses are influenced by prior light adaptation and the spectral quality of the light stimulus. We show that the early EEG responses are differently affected by adaptation to different colors of light which may contribute to known differences in performance and reaction times in cognitive tests.

Densité urbaine et psychose - est-ce que vivre en ville rend schizophrène [Urban density and psychosis - does living in a city cause schizophrenia?].

While it has often been stated that prevalence of schizophrenia is the same around the world, many publications have shown this illness is twice more frequent in urban areas. Although many hypotheses have been proposed, the mechanisms explaining this phenomenon are still unknown. Besides potential biological explanations, a certain number of hypotheses emerging from social sciences have recently enriched the debate. This article reviews the literature related to this issue and describes the development of a research projects conducted in collaboration between the Institut of Geography at the University of Neuchâtel, the Department of Psychiatry at the Lausanne University and the Swiss branch of ISPS, a society promoting the psychological treatment of schizophrenia and other psychoses.

Inferring recent migration rates from individual genotypes.

We present a novel and straightforward method for estimating recent migration rates between discrete populations using multilocus genotype data. The approach builds upon a two-step sampling design, where individual genotypes are sampled before and after dispersal. We develop a model that estimates all pairwise backwards migration rates (m(ij), the probability that an individual sampled in population i is a migrant from population j) between a set of populations. The method is validated with simulated data and compared with the methods of BayesAss and Structure. First, we use data for an island model and then we consider more realistic data simulations for a metapopulation of the greater white-toothed shrew (Crocidura russula). We show that the precision and bias of estimates primarily depend upon the proportion of individuals sampled in each population. Weak sampling designs may particularly affect the quality of the coverage provided by 95% highest posterior density intervals. We further show that it is relatively insensitive to the number of loci sampled and the overall strength of genetic structure. The method can easily be extended and makes fewer assumptions about the underlying demographic and genetic processes than currently available methods. It allows backwards migration rates to be estimated across a wide range of realistic conditions.

Deletion of mu- and kappa-opioid receptors in mice changes epidermal hypertrophy, density of peripheral nerve endings, and itch behavior.

The mu- (MOR) and kappa- (KOR) opioid receptors have been implicated in the regulation of homeostasis of non-neuronal cells, such as keratinocytes, and sensations like pain and chronic pruritus. Therefore, we have studied the phenotype of skin after deletion of MOR and KOR. In addition, we applied a dry skin model in these knockout mice and compared the different mice before and after induction of the dermatitis in terms of epidermal thickness, epidermal peripheral nerve ending distribution, dermal inflammatory infiltrate (mast cells, CD4 positive lymphocytes), and scratching behavior. MOR knockout mice reveal as phenotype a significantly thinner epidermis and a higher density of epidermal fiber staining by protein gene product 9.5 than the wild-type counterparts. Epidermal hypertrophy, induced by the dry skin dermatitis, was significantly less developed in MOR knockout than in wild-type mice. Neither mast cells nor CD4 T(h)-lymphocytes are involved in the changes of epidermal nerve endings and epidermal homeostasis. Finally, behavior experiments revealed that MOR and KOR knockout mice scratch less after induction of dry skin dermatitis than wild-type mice. These results indicate that MOR and KOR are important in skin homeostasis, epidermal nerve fiber regulation, and pathophysiology of itching.

A multicentre, retrospective case-control study assessing the role of trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal Caucasian women with low areal bone mineral density (BMDa): Analysing the odds of vertebral fracture.

INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a new parameter that is determined from grey level analysis of DXA images. It relies on the mean thickness and volume fraction of trabecular bone microarchitecture. This was a preliminary case-control study to evaluate the potential diagnostic value of TBS, both alone and combined with bone mineral density (BMDa), in the assessment of vertebral fracture. METHODS: Out of a subject pool of 441 Caucasian, postmenopausal women between the ages of 50 and 80 years, we identified 42 women with osteoporosis-related vertebral fractures, and compared them with 126 age-matched women without any fractures (1 case: 3 controls). Primary outcomes were BMDa and TBS. Inter-group comparisons were undertaken using Student's t-tests and Wilcoxon signed ranks tests for parametric and non-parametric data, respectively. Odds ratios for vertebral fracture were calculated for each incremental one standard deviation decrease in BMDa and TBS, and areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) calculated and sensitivity analysis were conducted to compare BMDa alone, TBS alone, and the combination of BMDa and TBS. Subgroup analyses were performed specifically for women with osteopenia, and for women with T-score-defined osteoporosis. RESULTS: Across all subjects (n=42, 126) weight and body mass index were greater and BMDa and TBS both less in women with fractures. The odds of vertebral fracture were 3.20 (95% CI, 2.01-5.08) for each incremental decrease in TBS, 1.95 (1.34-2.84) for BMDa, and 3.62 (2.32-5.65) for BMDa + TBS combined. The AUC was greater for TBS than for BMDa (0.746 vs. 0.662, p=0.011). At iso-specificity (61.9%) or iso-sensitivity (61.9%) for both BMDa and TBS, TBS + BMDa sensitivity or specificity was 19.1% or 16.7% greater than for either BMDa or TBS alone. Among subjects with osteoporosis (n=11, 40) both BMDa (p=0.0008) and TBS (p=0.0001) were lower in subjects with fractures, and both OR and AUC (p=0.013) for BMDa + TBS were greater than for BMDa alone (OR=4.04 [2.35-6.92] vs. 2.43 [1.49-3.95]; AUC=0.835 [0.755-0.897] vs. 0.718 [0.627-0.797], p=0.013). Among subjects with osteopenia, TBS was lower in women with fractures (p=0.0296), but BMDa was not (p=0.75). Similarly, the OR for TBS was statistically greater than 1.00 (2.82, 1.27-6.26), but not for BMDa (1.12, 0.56-2.22), as was the AUC (p=0.035), but there was no statistical difference in specificity (p=0.357) or sensitivity (p=0.678). CONCLUSIONS: The trabecular bone score warrants further study as to whether it has any clinical application in osteoporosis detection and the evaluation of fracture risk.

High-density lipoprotein, beta cells, and diabetes .

High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) exert a series of potentially beneficial effects on many cell types including anti-atherogenic actions on the endothelium and macrophage foam cells. HDLs may also exert anti-diabetogenic functions on the beta cells of the endocrine pancreas, notably by potently inhibiting stress-induced cell death and enhancing glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. HDLs have also been found to stimulate insulin-dependent and insulin-independent glucose uptake into skeletal muscle, adipose tissue, and liver. These experimental findings and the inverse association of HDL-cholesterol levels with the risk of diabetes development have generated the notion that appropriate HDL levels and functionality must be maintained in humans to diminish the risks of developing diabetes. In this article, we review our knowledge on the beneficial effects of HDLs in pancreatic beta cells and how these effects are mediated. We discuss the capacity of HDLs to modulate endoplasmic reticulum stress and how this affects beta-cell survival. We also point out the gaps in our understanding on the signalling properties of HDLs in beta cells. Hopefully, this review will foster the interest of scientists in working on beta cells and diabetes to better define the cellular pathways activated by HDLs in beta cells. Such knowledge will be of importance to design therapeutic tools to preserve the proper functioning of the insulin-secreting cells in our body.

Assessing inter-rater reliability when the raters are fixed: two concepts and two estimates.

Intraclass correlation (ICC) is an established tool to assess inter-rater reliability. In a seminal paper published in 1979, Shrout and Fleiss considered three statistical models for inter-rater reliability data with a balanced design. In their first two models, an infinite population of raters was considered, whereas in their third model, the raters in the sample were considered to be the whole population of raters. In the present paper, we show that the two distinct estimates of ICC developed for the first two models can both be applied to the third model and we discuss their different interpretations in this context.