Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations

The functions of DNA methylation by CcrM in Caulobacter crescentus: a global approach.

DNA methylation is involved in a diversity of processes in bacteria, including maintenance of genome integrity and regulation of gene expression. Here, using Caulobacter crescentus as a model, we exploit genome-wide experimental methods to uncover the functions of CcrM, a DNA methyltransferase conserved in most Alphaproteobacteria. Using single molecule sequencing, we provide evidence that most CcrM target motifs (GANTC) switch from a fully methylated to a hemi-methylated state when they are replicated, and back to a fully methylated state at the onset of cell division. We show that DNA methylation by CcrM is not required for the control of the initiation of chromosome replication or for DNA mismatch repair. By contrast, our transcriptome analysis shows that >10% of the genes are misexpressed in cells lacking or constitutively over-expressing CcrM. Strikingly, GANTC methylation is needed for the efficient transcription of dozens of genes that are essential for cell cycle progression, in particular for DNA metabolism and cell division. Many of them are controlled by promoters methylated by CcrM and co-regulated by other global cell cycle regulators, demonstrating an extensive cross talk between DNA methylation and the complex regulatory network that controls the cell cycle of C. crescentus and, presumably, of many other Alphaproteobacteria.

Transcatheter aortic valve replacement for degenerative bioprosthetic surgical valves: results from the global valve-in-valve registry.

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve-in-valve implantation is an emerging therapeutic alternative for patients with a failed surgical bioprosthesis and may obviate the need for reoperation. We evaluated the clinical results of this technique using a large, worldwide registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Global Valve-in-Valve Registry included 202 patients with degenerated bioprosthetic valves (aged 77.7±10.4 years; 52.5% men) from 38 cardiac centers. Bioprosthesis mode of failure was stenosis (n=85; 42%), regurgitation (n=68; 34%), or combined stenosis and regurgitation (n=49; 24%). Implanted devices included CoreValve (n=124) and Edwards SAPIEN (n=78). Procedural success was achieved in 93.1% of cases. Adverse procedural outcomes included initial device malposition in 15.3% of cases and ostial coronary obstruction in 3.5%. After the procedure, valve maximum/mean gradients were 28.4±14.1/15.9±8.6 mm Hg, and 95% of patients had ≤+1 degree of aortic regurgitation. At 30-day follow-up, all-cause mortality was 8.4%, and 84.1% of patients were at New York Heart Association functional class I/II. One-year follow-up was obtained in 87 patients, with 85.8% survival of treated patients. CONCLUSIONS: The valve-in-valve procedure is clinically effective in the vast majority of patients with degenerated bioprosthetic valves. Safety and efficacy concerns include device malposition, ostial coronary obstruction, and high gradients after the procedure.

Promoter recognition and activation by the global response regulator CbrB in Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa, the CbrA/CbrB two-component system is instrumental in the maintenance of the carbon-nitrogen balance and for growth on carbon sources that are energetically less favorable than the preferred dicarboxylate substrates. The CbrA/CbrB system drives the expression of the small RNA CrcZ, which antagonizes the repressing effects of the catabolite repression control protein Crc, an RNA-binding protein. Dicarboxylates appear to cause carbon catabolite repression by inhibiting the activity of the CbrA/CbrB system, resulting in reduced crcZ expression. Here we have identified a conserved palindromic nucleotide sequence that is present in upstream activating sequences (UASs) of promoters under positive control by CbrB and σ(54) RNA polymerase, especially in the UAS of the crcZ promoter. Evidence for recognition of this palindromic sequence by CbrB was obtained in vivo from mutational analysis of the crcZ promoter and in vitro from electrophoretic mobility shift assays using crcZ promoter fragments and purified CbrB protein truncated at the N terminus. Integration host factor (IHF) was required for crcZ expression. CbrB also activated the lipA (lipase) promoter, albeit less effectively, apparently by interacting with a similar but less conserved palindromic sequence in the UAS of lipA. As expected, succinate caused CbrB-dependent catabolite repression of the lipA promoter. Based on these results and previously published data, a consensus CbrB recognition sequence is proposed. This sequence has similarity to the consensus NtrC recognition sequence, which is relevant for nitrogen control.

Evaluation of the susceptibility of pathogenic Candida species to fluconazole. Fluconazole Global Susceptibility Study Group.

A fluconazole 25 microg disk diffusion test was used to test 2230 consecutively isolated Candida strains from 42 different hospital laboratories in 23 countries. Ninety seven percent of 1634 Candida albicans isolates and 83.4% of 596 non-Candida albicans isolates were susceptible to fluconazole, applying the proposed breakpoints (> or = 26 mm for susceptible strains and 18-25 mm for dose-dependent susceptible strains). This is the first hospital laboratory study to evaluate a large number and wide range of sequential Candida isolates from patients with all types of hospital infections. The fluconazole disk diffusion test appears to be a low-cost, reproducible, and accurate means of assessing the in vitro susceptibility of Candida isolates.

Global phylogenomic analysis of nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae reveals a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages.

The surrounding capsule of Streptococcus pneumoniae has been identified as a major virulence factor and is targeted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). However, nonencapsulated S. pneumoniae (non-Ec-Sp) have also been isolated globally, mainly in carriage studies. It is unknown if non-Ec-Sp evolve sporadically, if they have high antibiotic nonsusceptiblity rates and a unique, specific gene content. Here, whole-genome sequencing of 131 non-Ec-Sp isolates sourced from 17 different locations around the world was performed. Results revealed a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages. The sporadic lineages clustered with a previously sequenced, global collection of encapsulated S. pneumoniae (Ec-Sp) isolates while the classic lineage is comprised mainly of the frequently identified multilocus sequences types (STs) ST344 (n = 39) and ST448 (n = 40). All ST344 and nine ST448 isolates had high nonsusceptiblity rates to β-lactams and other antimicrobials. Analysis of the accessory genome reveals that the classic non-Ec-Sp contained an increased number of mobile elements, than Ec-Sp and sporadic non-Ec-Sp. Performing adherence assays to human epithelial cells for selected classic and sporadic non-Ec-Sp revealed that the presence of a integrative conjugative element (ICE) results in increased adherence to human epithelial cells (P = 0.005). In contrast, sporadic non-Ec-Sp lacking the ICE had greater growth in vitro possibly resulting in improved fitness. In conclusion, non-Ec-Sp isolates from the classic lineage have evolved separately. They have spread globally, are well adapted to nasopharyngeal carriage and are able to coexist with Ec-Sp. Due to continued use of PCV, non-Ec-Sp may become more prevalent.

A global analysis of Y-chromosomal haplotype diversity for 23 STR loci.

In a worldwide collaborative effort, 19,630 Y-chromosomes were sampled from 129 different populations in 51 countries. These chromosomes were typed for 23 short-tandem repeat (STR) loci (DYS19, DYS389I, DYS389II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS385ab, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS448, DYS456, DYS458, DYS635, GATAH4, DYS481, DYS533, DYS549, DYS570, DYS576, and DYS643) and using the PowerPlex Y23 System (PPY23, Promega Corporation, Madison, WI). Locus-specific allelic spectra of these markers were determined and a consistently high level of allelic diversity was observed. A considerable number of null, duplicate and off-ladder alleles were revealed. Standard single-locus and haplotype-based parameters were calculated and compared between subsets of Y-STR markers established for forensic casework. The PPY23 marker set provides substantially stronger discriminatory power than other available kits but at the same time reveals the same general patterns of population structure as other marker sets. A strong correlation was observed between the number of Y-STRs included in a marker set and some of the forensic parameters under study. Interestingly a weak but consistent trend toward smaller genetic distances resulting from larger numbers of markers became apparent.

Impact of stressful life event on the global functioning outcome after an assertive community treatment

Background: Assertive community treatment (ACT) was reported to be an effective treatment to improve global functioning of ultra-high risk (UHR) adolescents. However, the infl uence of stressful life event (SLE) was not extensively studied which represent our objective. Method: The SLE (encompassing adoption, migration, family member's deceased, sexual or physical abuse, etc.) of 20 UHR adolescents, treated with an ACT model, were rated. 10 adolescents having 0 to 1 SLE (mainly parents' divorce; low SLE group) were compared 10 adolescents with 2 to 5 SLE (high SLE group). The adolescents were assessed at baseline and after treatment with the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). The HoNOSCA allowed rating different diffi culties such as behavior, symptoms, disorders and social. Results: First, results on the whole sample indicated signifi cant improvement after ACT (compared to baseline) on the total (P = .04), symptoms (P = .025) and social (P = .009) scores of the HoNOSCA. Second, the improvement on the HoNOSCA's score of the high SLE group were signifi cantly higher for the total (P = .016), symptoms (P = .019) and behavior (P = .033) scores compared to the low SLE group. Discussion/Conclusion: Globally, ACT seems to be an appropriate treatment to enhance global functioning and more specifi cally the social and symptoms diffi culties of UHR adolescents. Additionally, UHR adolescents with a high numbers of SLE were observed to have a better benefi t of the ACT on global, symptoms and behavioral diffi culties.

Canakinumab vs triamcinolone acetonide for treatment of acute flares and prevention of recurrent flares in "difficult to treat" gouty arthritis

Monosodium urate crystal deposition seen in gout stimulates IL-1 beta OR IL-1_; release. Canakinumab, a long-acting, fully human anti- IL-1 beta OR IL-1_; monoclonal antibody, effectively neutralizes IL-1 beta OR IL-1_;. Methods: This was an 8-week, dose-ranging, multi-center, blinded, doubledummy, active-controlled trial. Patients (aged 18-80 years) with an acute gout flare, refractory to or contraindicated to NSAlDs and/or colchicine, were randomized to one dose of canakinumab 10, 25, 50, 90, 150 mg s.c. or triamcinolone acetonide (TA) 40 mg i.m. Primary variable was assessed as pain intensity at 72 h post-dose (0-100 mm VAS). Secondary variables included pain intensity 24 and 48 h post-dose, time to 50% reduction in pain intensity, time to recurrence of gout flares up to 8 weeks post-dose, and rescue medication use. Results: 191/200 enrolled patients (canakinumab, n_143; TA, n_57) completed the study. Canakinumab showed significant dose-dependent pain reduction at 72 h. Canakinumab 150 mg showed superior pain relief versus TA starting from 24 h: estimated mean difference in pain intensity on VAS was -11.5 (24 h), -18.2 (48 h), and -19.2 (72 h) (all p_0.05). Canakinumab 150 mg provided a rapid onset of pain relief: median time to 50% reduction in pain was reached at 1 day with canakinumab 150 mg versus 2 days with TA (p_0.0006). At Week 8, recurrent flares occurred in 1 patient (3.7%) on canakinumab 150 mg versus 25 (44.6%) patients on TA (relative risk reduction, 94%; p_0.006). During 7 days post-dose, 6 patients (22.2%) on canakinumab 150 mg, and 31 patients (55.4%) on TA, took rescue medication. Time to first rescue medication was significantly longer with canakinumab 150 mg versus TA (hazard ratio, 0.36; p_0.02). Serious adverse events (canakinumab _lsqb_n_4_rsqb_ and TA _lsqb_n_1_rsqb_) were considered not treatment-related by investigators and no patient discontinued due to adverse events. Conclusions: Canakinumab 150 mg was well-tolerated, provided rapid and sustained pain relief in patients with acute gout flares, and significantly reduced the recurrent flare risk by 94% at 8-weeks post-dose compared with triamcinolone acetonide.

Canakinumab (ACZ885) vs triamcinolone acetonide for treatment of acute flares and prevention of recurrent flares in gouty arthritis patients refractory to or contraindicated to nsaids and/or colchicine.

Purpose: Current treatments for arthritis flares in gout (gouty arthritis) are not effective in all patients and may be contraindicated in many due to underlying comorbidities. Urate crystals activate the NALP 3 inflammasome which stimulate production of IL-1β, driving inflammatory processes. Targeted IL-1β blockade may be an alternative treatment for gouty arthritis. Canakinumab (ACZ885) is a fully human monoclonal anti- IL-1β antibody with a long half-life (28 days). Method: This was an 8-weeks, dose-ranging, multicenter, blinded, double-dummy, active-controlled trial of patients ≥18 to ≤80 y with an acute gouty arthritis flare, refractory to or contraindicated to NSAIDs and/or colchicine. Patients were randomized to 1 subcutanous (sc) dose of canakinumab (10, 25, 50, 90, or 150 mg) or 1 intra muscular (im) dose of triamcinolone acetonide (TA) [40 mg]. The primary variable was assessed 72 h post-dose, measured on a 0-100 mm VAS pain scale. Secondary variables included pain intensity 24 and 48 h post dose, time to 50% reduction in pain intensity, and time to recurrence of gout flares up to 8 weeks post dose. Results: 200 patients were enrolled (canakinumab n=143, TA n=57) and 191 completed the study. A statistically significant dose response was observed at 72 h. The 150 mg dose reached superior pain relief compared to TA starting from 24h: estimated mean difference in pain intensity on 0-100 mm VAS was -11.5 at 24 h, -18.2 at 48 h, and -19.2 at 72 h (all p<0.05). Canakinumab 150 mg provided a rapid onset of pain relief: median time to 50% reduction in pain was reached at 1 day with canakinumab 150 mg vs 2 days for the TA group (p=0.0006). The probability of recurrent gout flares was 3.7% with canakinumab 150 mg vs. 45.4% with TA 8 weeks post treatment, a relative risk reduction of 94% (p=0.006). Serious AEs occurred in 2 patients receiving canakinumab (appendicitis and carotid artery stenosis) and 1 receiving TA (cerebrovascular disorder). Investigator's reported these events as not study drug related. There were no discontinuations due to AEs. Conclusion: Canakinumab 150 mg provided faster onset and superior pain relief compared to TA for acute flares in gouty arthritis patients refractory to or contraindicated to standard treatments. The 150 mg dose of canakinumab prevented recurrence of gout flares with a relative risk reduction compared to TA of 94% at 8 weeks post-dose, and was well tolerated.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.