157 resultados para EFFICIENT SIMULATION


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The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

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Integrative and conjugative elements (ICEs) are particularly interesting model systems for horizontal gene transfer, because they normally reside in an integrated state in the host chromosome but can excise and self-transfer under particular conditions, typically requiring exquisite regulatory cascades. Despite important advances in our understanding of the transfer mechanisms of a number of ICE, many essential details are lacking. Recently we reported that ICEclc, a 103 kb ICE of Pseudomonas knackmussii B13, has two active origins of transfer (oriTs), which is very much unlike conjugative plasmids that usually employ a single oriT. We discuss here how this dual oriT system could function and how it actually could have presented an evolutionary advantage for ICEclc distribution.

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OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

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Regulatory gene networks contain generic modules, like those involving feedback loops, which are essential for the regulation of many biological functions (Guido et al. in Nature 439:856-860, 2006). We consider a class of self-regulated genes which are the building blocks of many regulatory gene networks, and study the steady-state distribution of the associated Gillespie algorithm by providing efficient numerical algorithms. We also study a regulatory gene network of interest in gene therapy, using mean-field models with time delays. Convergence of the related time-nonhomogeneous Markov chain is established for a class of linear catalytic networks with feedback loops.

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The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant.

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Pharmacokinetic variability in drug levels represent for some drugs a major determinant of treatment success, since sub-therapeutic concentrations might lead to toxic reactions, treatment discontinuation or inefficacy. This is true for most antiretroviral drugs, which exhibit high inter-patient variability in their pharmacokinetics that has been partially explained by some genetic and non-genetic factors. The population pharmacokinetic approach represents a very useful tool for the description of the dose-concentration relationship, the quantification of variability in the target population of patients and the identification of influencing factors. It can thus be used to make predictions and dosage adjustment optimization based on Bayesian therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). This approach has been used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of nevirapine (NVP) in 137 HIV-positive patients followed within the frame of a TDM program. Among tested covariates, body weight, co-administration of a cytochrome (CYP) 3A4 inducer or boosted atazanavir as well as elevated aspartate transaminases showed an effect on NVP elimination. In addition, genetic polymorphism in the CYP2B6 was associated with reduced NVP clearance. Altogether, these factors could explain 26% in NVP variability. Model-based simulations were used to compare the adequacy of different dosage regimens in relation to the therapeutic target associated with treatment efficacy. In conclusion, the population approach is very useful to characterize the pharmacokinetic profile of drugs in a population of interest. The quantification and the identification of the sources of variability is a rational approach to making optimal dosage decision for certain drugs administered chronically.

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Various neurological and neuropsychological manifestations are still relatively frequently reported in HIV infected patients in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era. A fraction of them could be related to HIV replication in the central nervous system (CNS) despite adequate peripheral viral suppression. This hypothesis is supported by numerous reports of detectable HIV RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid in the context of a low or undetectable viremia in association with neurological or neuropsychological complaints. In addition, some antiviral molecules may not achieve adequate levels in the CNS, thus potentially favoring intracerebral HIV replication and even antiretroviral resistance. Neurologic manifestations in the presence of CNS HIV replication often decrease after antiretroviral treatment CNS penetration optimization.

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Fetal MRI reconstruction aims at finding a high-resolution image given a small set of low-resolution images. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has considered several regularization terms s.a. Dirichlet/Laplacian energy, Total Variation (TV)- based energies and more recently non-local means. Although TV energies are quite attractive because of their ability in edge preservation, standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied to optimize fetal-based TV energies. The main contribution of this work lies in the introduction of a well-posed TV algorithm from the point of view of convex optimization. Specifically, our proposed TV optimization algorithm or fetal reconstruction is optimal w.r.t. the asymptotic and iterative convergence speeds O(1/n2) and O(1/√ε), while existing techniques are in O(1/n2) and O(1/√ε). We apply our algorithm to (1) clinical newborn data, considered as ground truth, and (2) clinical fetal acquisitions. Our algorithm compares favorably with the literature in terms of speed and accuracy.

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Résumé¦L'Embrochage Centro-Médullaire Elastique Stable (ECMES) est le traitement de choix des fractures du fémur chez l'enfant en âge scolaire. Il est pratiqué avec succès chez le jeune enfant, alors que l'Immobilisation par Plâtre (IP) était la technique la plus largement utilisée jusque-là.¦Méthode : Une analyse rétrospective comparant deux groupes d'enfants âgés de 1 à 4 ans avec des fractures diaphysaires du fémur a été effectuée. Deux hôpitaux universitaires, utilisant chacun une méthode de traitement spécifique, ont participé à cette étude : l'IP dans le groupe I (Bâle, Suisse) et l'ECMES dans le groupe II (Lausanne, Suisse).¦Résultats : Le groupe I inclue 19 enfants avec un âge médian de 26 mois (12-46 mois). La médiane du séjour hospitalier est de 1 jour (0-5 jours) et le plâtre est laissé en place pour une durée médiane de 21 jours (12-29 jours). Une anesthésie générale a été nécessaire chez 6 enfants et une sédation chez 4. Des lésions cutanées secondaires au plâtre sont apparues chez 2 enfants (10.5%). La médiane de la durée du suivi est de 114 mois (37-171 mois). Aucun défaut de consolidation n'est à déplorer. Le groupe II inclue 27 enfants avec un âge médian de 38.4 mois (18.7-46.7 mois). La médiane du séjour hospitalier est de 4 jours (1-13 jours). Tous les enfants ont nécessité une anesthésie générale pour la mise en place et pour le retrait des broches. La mobilisation et la mise en charge complète du membre ont été permises respectivement à une médiane de 2 jours (1-10 jours) et 7 jours (1-30 jours) postopératoires. Une complication sous la forme d'une extériorisation à la peau d'une broche a été notée chez 3 enfants (11%). La médiane de la durée du suivi et de 16.5 mois (8-172 mois). Aucun défaut de consolidation n'est à déplorer.¦Conclusion : Les jeunes enfants présentant une fracture diaphysaire du fémur, traité pas IP ou ECMES, ont des résultats favorables et des taux de complications similaires. L'ECMES permet une mobilisation et une charge complète sur le membre fracturé plus rapide. Mais comparé à l'IP, l'ECMES requiert un plus grand nombre d'anesthésies générales. Chez un enfant d'âge préscolaire présentant une fracture diaphysaire du fémur, l'application immédiate d'un plâtre par une équipe orthopédique pédiatrique entraînée à la mise en place de plâtre chez l'enfant, permet un retour à domicile rapide et un taux de complication bas.

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In order to study the various health influencing parameters related to engineered nanoparticles as well as to soot emitted b diesel engines, there is an urgent need for appropriate sampling devices and methods for cell exposure studies that simulate the respiratory system and facilitate associated biological and toxicological tests. The objective of the present work was the further advancement of a Multiculture Exposure Chamber (MEC) into a dose-controlled system for efficient delivery of nanoparticles to cells. It was validated with various types of nanoparticles (diesel engine soot aggregates, engineered nanoparticles for various applications) and with state-of-the-art nanoparticle measurement instrumentation to assess the local deposition of nanoparticles on the cell cultures. The dose of nanoparticles to which cell cultures are being exposed was evaluated in the normal operation of the in vitro cell culture exposure chamber based on measurements of the size specific nanoparticle collection efficiency of a cell free device. The average efficiency in delivering nanoparticles in the MEC was approximately 82%. The nanoparticle deposition was demonstrated by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Analysis and design of the MEC employs Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and true to geometry representations of nanoparticles with the aim to assess the uniformity of nanoparticle deposition among the culture wells. Final testing of the dose-controlled cell exposure system was performed by exposing A549 lung cell cultures to fluorescently labeled nanoparticles. Delivery of aerosolized nanoparticles was demonstrated by visualization of the nanoparticle fluorescence in the cell cultures following exposure. Also monitored was the potential of the aerosolized nanoparticles to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) (e.g. free radicals and peroxides generation), thus expressing the oxidative stress of the cells which can cause extensive cellular damage or damage on DNA.

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Human biomonitoring is a widely used method in the assessment of occupational exposure to chemical substances and recommended biological limits are published periodically for interpretation and decision-making. However, it is increasingly recognized that a large variability is associated with biological monitoring, making interpretation less efficient than assumed. In order to improve the applicability of biological monitoring, specific factors responsible for this variability should be identified and their contribution quantified. Among these factors, age and sex are easily identifiable, and present knowledge about pharmaceutical chemicals suggests that they play an important role on the toxicokinetics of occupational chemical agents, and therefore on the biological monitoring results.The aim of the present research project was to assess the influence of age and sex on biological indicators corresponding to organic solvents. This has been done experimentally and by toxicokinetic computer simulation. Another purpose was to explore the effect of selected CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the toxicokinetic profile.Age differences were identified by numerical simulations using a general toxicokinetic model from a previous study which was applied to 14 chemicals, representing 21 specific biological entities, with, among others, toluene, phenol, lead and mercury. These models were runn with the modified parameters, indicating in some cases important differences due to age. The expected changes are mostly of the order of 10-20 %, but differences up to 50 % were observed in some cases. These differences appear to depend on the chemical and on the biological entity considered.Sex differences were quantified by controlled human exposures, which were carried out in a 12 m3 exposure chamber for three organic solvents separately: methyl ethyl ketone, 1-methoxy-2-propanol and 1,1,1-trichloroethane. The human volunteer groups were composed 12 of ten young men and fifteen young women, the latter subdivided into those with and without hormonal contraceptive. They were exposed during six hours at rest and at half of the threshold limit value. The kinetics of the parent compounds (organic volatiles) and their metabolite(s) were followed in blood, urine and expired air over time. Analyses of the solvent and their metabolites were performed by using headspace gas chromatography, CYP2E1 genotypes by using PCR-based RFLP methods. Experimental data were used to calibrate the toxicokinetic models developed for the three solvents. The results obtained for the different biomarkers of exposure mainly showed an effect on the urinary levels of several biomarkers among women due to the use of hormonal contraceptive, with an increase of about 50 % in the metabolism rate. The results also showed a difference due to the genotype CYP2E1*6, when exposed to methyl ethyl ketone, with a tendency to increase CYP2E1 activity when volunteers were carriers of the mutant allele. Simulations showed that it is possible to use simple toxicokinetic tools in order to predict internal exposure when exposed to organic solvents. Our study suggests that not only physiological differences but also exogenous sex hormones could influence CYP2E1 enzyme activity. The variability among the urinary biological indicators levels gives evidence of an interindividual susceptibility, an aspect that should have its place in the approaches for setting limits of occupational exposure.

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A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

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Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is an adaptive process that may allow increasing the number of new occurrences found. We illustrate the approach with a case study of a rare and endangered plant species in Switzerland and a simulation experiment. Our field survey confirmed that the method helps in the discovery of new populations of the target species in remote areas where the predicted habitat suitability is high. In our simulations the model-based approach provided a significant improvement (by a factor of 1.8 to 4 times, depending on the measure) over simple random sampling. In terms of cost this approach may save up to 70% of the time spent in the field.

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Coordination games are important to explain efficient and desirable social behavior. Here we study these games by extensive numerical simulation on networked social structures using an evolutionary approach. We show that local network effects may promote selection of efficient equilibria in both pure and general coordination games and may explain social polarization. These results are put into perspective with respect to known theoretical results. The main insight we obtain is that clustering, and especially community structure in social networks has a positive role in promoting socially efficient outcomes.

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Waterproofing agents are widely used to protect leather and textiles in both domestic and occupational activities. An outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome following exposure to waterproofing sprays occurred during the winter 2002-2003 in Switzerland. About 180 cases were reported by the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre between October 2002 and March 2003, whereas fewer than 10 cases per year had been recorded previously. The reported cases involved three brands of sprays containing a common waterproofing mixture, that had undergone a formulation change in the months preceding the outbreak. A retrospective analysis was undertaken in collaboration with the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre and the Swiss Registries for Interstitial and Orphan Lung Diseases to clarify the circumstances and possible causes of the observed health effects. Individual exposure data were generated with questionnaires and experimental emission measurements. The collected data was used to conduct numeric simulation for 102 cases of exposure. A classical two-zone model was used to assess the aerosol dispersion in the near- and far-field during spraying. The resulting assessed dose and exposure levels obtained were spread on large scales, of several orders of magnitude. No dose-response relationship was found between exposure indicators and health effects indicators (perceived severity and clinical indicators). Weak relationships were found between unspecific inflammatory response indicators (leukocytes, C-reactive protein) and the maximal exposure concentration. The results obtained disclose a high interindividual response variability and suggest that some indirect mechanism(s) predominates in the respiratory disease occurrence. Furthermore, no threshold could be found to define a safe level of exposure. These findings suggest that the improvement of environmental exposure conditions during spraying alone does not constitute a sufficient measure to prevent future outbreaks of waterproofing spray toxicity. More efficient preventive measures are needed prior to the marketing and distribution of new waterproofing agents.