Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

A qualitative continuous model of cellular auxin and brassinosteroid signaling and their crosstalk.

Motivation: Hormone pathway interactions are crucial in shaping plant development, such as synergism between the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways in cell elongation. Both hormone pathways have been characterized in detail, revealing several feedback loops. The complexity of this network, combined with a shortage of kinetic data, renders its quantitative analysis virtually impossible at present.Results: As a first step towards overcoming these obstacles, we analyzed the network using a Boolean logic approach to build models of auxin and brassinosteroid signaling, and their interaction. To compare these discrete dynamic models across conditions, we transformed them into qualitative continuous systems, which predict network component states more accurately and can accommodate kinetic data as they become available. To this end, we developed an extension for the SQUAD software, allowing semi-quantitative analysis of network states. Contrasting the developmental output depending on cell type-specific modulators enabled us to identify a most parsimonious model, which explains initially paradoxical mutant phenotypes and revealed a novel physiological feature.

SIRT1 Activates MAO-A in the Brain to Mediate Anxiety and Exploratory Drive.

SIRT1 is a NAD(+)-dependent deacetylase that governs a number of genetic programs to cope with changes in the nutritional status of cells and organisms. Behavioral responses to food abundance are important for the survival of higher animals. Here we used mice with increased or decreased brain SIRT1 to show that this sirtuin regulates anxiety and exploratory drive by activating transcription of the gene encoding the monoamine oxidase A (MAO-A) to reduce serotonin levels in the brain. Indeed, treating animals with MAO-A inhibitors or selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) normalized anxiety differences between wild-type and mutant animals. SIRT1 deacetylates the brain-specific helix-loop-helix transcription factor NHLH2 on lysine 49 to increase its activation of the MAO-A promoter. Both common and rare variations in the SIRT1 gene were shown to be associated with risk of anxiety in human population samples. Together these data indicate that SIRT1 mediates levels of anxiety, and this regulation may be adaptive in a changing environment of food availability.

The Same, but Different: Central Banks, Regulatory Agencies, and the Politics of Delegation to Independent Authorities

Independent regulatory agencies are the institutional foundations of the regulatory state that, during the past 15 years, has gained prominence throughout Europe. This article studies the rise of independent authorities in European countries by comparing regulatory agencies and central banks. Delegation to independent central banks and to independent regulatory agencies is similar in many respects. In both cases, agents are deliberately made independent from political principals through a specific institutional design. Moreover, it has been argued that delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies is linked to the need for policy-makers to improve the credibility of policy commitments, to the wish of incumbent politicians to tie the hands of future majorities, and to the extent to which the institutional contexts safeguard policy stability. Through an analysis of the formal independence of central banks and regulatory agencies in Western Europe, this article identifies an empirical puzzle that casts doubts on the accuracy of current explanations. Veto players and the uncertainty of incumbent policy-makers in respect to their re-election prospects matter for delegation to both central banks and regulatory agencies, but in opposite ways. Making sense of these anomalies is necessary to achieve a better understanding of delegation to independent authorities.

A methodology to estimate the potential to move inpatient to one day surgery.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of surgery performed as a day case varies greatly between countries. Low rates suggest a large growth potential in many countries. Measuring the potential development of one day surgery should be grounded on a comprehensive list of eligible procedures, based on a priori criteria, independent of local practices. We propose an algorithmic method, using only routinely available hospital data to identify surgical hospitalizations that could have been performed as one day treatment. METHODS: Moving inpatient surgery to one day surgery was considered feasible if at least one surgical intervention was eligible for one day surgery and if none of the following criteria were present: intervention or affection requiring an inpatient stay, patient transferred or died, and length of stay greater than four days. The eligibility of a procedure to be treated as a day case was mainly established on three a priori criteria: surgical access (endoscopic or not), the invasiveness of the procedure and the size of the operated organ. Few overrides of these criteria occurred when procedures were associated with risk of immediate complications, slow physiological recovery or pain treatment requiring hospital infrastructure. The algorithm was applied to a random sample of one million inpatient US stays and more than 600 thousand Swiss inpatient stays, in the year 2002. RESULTS: The validity of our method was demonstrated by the few discrepancies between the a priori criteria based list of eligible procedures, and a state list used for reimbursement purposes, the low proportion of hospitalizations eligible for one day care found in the US sample (4.9 versus 19.4% in the Swiss sample), and the distribution of the elective procedures found eligible in Swiss hospitals, well supported by the literature. There were large variations of the proportion of candidates for one day surgery among elective surgical hospitalizations between Swiss hospitals (3 to 45.3%). CONCLUSION: The proposed approach allows the monitoring of the proportion of inpatient stay candidates for one day surgery. It could be used for infrastructure planning, resources negotiation and the surveillance of appropriate resource utilization.

Vorapaxar in the secondary prevention of atherothrombotic events.

BACKGROUND: Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1. METHODS: We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage. RESULTS: At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.).

Clinically relevant quality measures for risk factor control in primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the proportion of patients with well controlled cardiovascular risk factors underestimates the proportion of patients receiving high quality of care. Evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control gives a different picture of quality of care. We assessed physician response to control cardiovascular risk factors, as well as markers of potential overtreatment in Switzerland, a country with universal healthcare coverage but without systematic quality monitoring, annual report cards on quality of care or financial incentives to improve quality. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1002 randomly selected patients aged 50-80 years from four university primary care settings in Switzerland. For hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes mellitus, we first measured proportions in control, then assessed therapy modifications among those in poor control. "Appropriate clinical action" was defined as a therapy modification or return to control without therapy modification within 12 months among patients with baseline poor control. Potential overtreatment of these conditions was defined as intensive treatment among low-risk patients with optimal target values. RESULTS: 20% of patients with hypertension, 41% with dyslipidemia and 36% with diabetes mellitus were in control at baseline. When appropriate clinical action in response to poor control was integrated into measuring quality of care, 52 to 55% had appropriate quality of care. Over 12 months, therapy of 61% of patients with baseline poor control was modified for hypertension, 33% for dyslipidemia, and 85% for diabetes mellitus. Increases in number of drug classes (28-51%) and in drug doses (10-61%) were the most common therapy modifications. Patients with target organ damage and higher baseline values were more likely to have appropriate clinical action. We found low rates of potential overtreatment with 2% for hypertension, 3% for diabetes mellitus and 3-6% for dyslipidemia. CONCLUSIONS: In primary care, evaluating whether physicians respond appropriately to poor risk factor control, in addition to assessing proportions in control, provide a broader view of the quality of care than relying solely on measures of proportions in control. Such measures could be more clinically relevant and acceptable to physicians than simply reporting levels of control.

Can smartphones and tablets improve the management of childhood illness in Tanzania? A qualitative study from a primary health care worker's perspective.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) strategy has been less than anticipated because of poor uptake. Electronic algorithms have the potential to improve quality of health care in children. However, feasibility studies about the use of electronic protocols on mobile devices over time are limited. This study investigated constraining as well as facilitating factors that influence the uptake of a new electronic Algorithm for Management of Childhood Illness (ALMANACH) among primary health workers in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: A qualitative approach was applied using in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with altogether 40 primary health care workers from 6 public primary health facilities in the three municipalities of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Health worker's perceptions related to factors facilitating or constraining the uptake of the electronic ALMANACH were identified. RESULTS: In general, the ALMANACH was assessed positively. The majority of the respondents felt comfortable to use the devices and stated that patient's trust was not affected. Most health workers said that the ALMANACH simplified their work, reduced antibiotic prescription and gave correct classification and treatment for common causes of childhood illnesses. Few HWs reported technical challenges using the devices and complained about having had difficulties in typing. Majority of the respondents stated that the devices increased the consultation duration compared to routine practice. In addition, health system barriers such as lack of staff, lack of medicine and lack of financial motivation were identified as key reasons for the low uptake of the devices. CONCLUSIONS: The ALMANACH built on electronic devices was perceived to be a powerful and useful tool. However, health system challenges influenced the uptake of the devices in the selected health facilities.

How to identify and recruit nurses to a survey 14 and 24 years after graduation in a context of scarce data : lessons learnt from the 2012 nurses at work pilot study on nurses' career paths

Nursing workforce data are scarce in Switzerland, with no active national registry of nurses. The worldwide nursing shortage is also affecting Switzerland, so that evidence-based results of the nurses at work project on career paths and retention are needed as part of the health care system stewardship; nurses at work is a retrospective cohort study of nurses who graduated in Swiss nursing schools in the last 30 years. Results of the pilot study are presented here (process and feasibility). The objectives are (1) to determine the size and structure of the potential target population by approaching two test-cohorts of nursing graduates (1988 and 1998); (2) to test methods of identifying and reaching them 14 and 24 years after graduation; (3) to compute participation rates, and identify recruitment and participation biases.

Prevalence of cerebral amyloid pathology in persons without dementia: a meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Cerebral amyloid-β aggregation is an early pathological event in Alzheimer disease (AD), starting decades before dementia onset. Estimates of the prevalence of amyloid pathology in persons without dementia are needed to understand the development of AD and to design prevention studies. OBJECTIVE: To use individual participant data meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of amyloid pathology as measured with biomarkers in participants with normal cognition, subjective cognitive impairment (SCI), or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). DATA SOURCES: Relevant biomarker studies identified by searching studies published before April 2015 using the MEDLINE and Web of Science databases and through personal communication with investigators. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were included if they provided individual participant data for participants without dementia and used an a priori defined cutoff for amyloid positivity. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Individual records were provided for 2914 participants with normal cognition, 697 with SCI, and 3972 with MCI aged 18 to 100 years from 55 studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence of amyloid pathology on positron emission tomography or in cerebrospinal fluid according to AD risk factors (age, apolipoprotein E [APOE] genotype, sex, and education) estimated by generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: The prevalence of amyloid pathology increased from age 50 to 90 years from 10% (95% CI, 8%-13%) to 44% (95% CI, 37%-51%) among participants with normal cognition; from 12% (95% CI, 8%-18%) to 43% (95% CI, 32%-55%) among patients with SCI; and from 27% (95% CI, 23%-32%) to 71% (95% CI, 66%-76%) among patients with MCI. APOE-ε4 carriers had 2 to 3 times higher prevalence estimates than noncarriers. The age at which 15% of the participants with normal cognition were amyloid positive was approximately 40 years for APOE ε4ε4 carriers, 50 years for ε2ε4 carriers, 55 years for ε3ε4 carriers, 65 years for ε3ε3 carriers, and 95 years for ε2ε3 carriers. Amyloid positivity was more common in highly educated participants but not associated with sex or biomarker modality. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among persons without dementia, the prevalence of cerebral amyloid pathology as determined by positron emission tomography or cerebrospinal fluid findings was associated with age, APOE genotype, and presence of cognitive impairment. These findings suggest a 20- to 30-year interval between first development of amyloid positivity and onset of dementia.

« Ecrire, c'est entrer en scène »: la littérature en personne»

Leçon inaugurale à l'Université de Lausanne (Suisse).

CoDiab-VD: protocol of a prospective population-based cohort study on diabetes care in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes represents an increasing health burden worldwide. In 2010, the Public Health Department of the canton of Vaud (Switzerland) launched a regional diabetes programme entitled "Programme cantonal Diabète" (PcD), with the objectives to both decrease the incidence of diabetes and improve care for patients with diabetes. The cohort entitled CoDiab-VD emerged from that programme. It specifically aimed at following quality of diabetes care over time, at evaluating the coverage of the PcD within this canton and at assessing the impact of the PcD on care of patients with diabetes. METHODS/DESIGN: The cohort CoDiab-VD is a prospective population-based cohort study. Patients with diabetes were recruited in two waves (autumn 2011--summer 2012) through community pharmacies. Eligible participants were non-institutionalised adult patients (≥ 18 years) with diabetes diagnosed for at least one year, residing in the canton of Vaud and coming to a participating pharmacy with a diabetes-related prescription. Women with gestational diabetes, people with obvious cognitive impairment or insufficient command of French were not eligible. Self-reported data collected, included the following primary outcomes: processes-of-care indicators (annual checks) and outcomes of care such as HbA1C, (health-related) quality of life measures (Short Form-12 Health Survey--SF-12, Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life 19--ADDQoL) and Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC). Data on diabetes, health status, healthcare utilisation, health behaviour, self-management activities and support, knowledge of, or participation to, campaigns/activities proposed by the PcD, and socio-demographics were also obtained. For consenting participants, physicians provided few additional pieces of information about processes and laboratory results. Participants will be followed once a year, via a mailed self-report questionnaire. The core of the follow-up questionnaires will be similar to the baseline one, with the addition of thematic modules adapting to the development of the PcD. Physicians will be contacted every 2 years. DISCUSSION: CoDiab-VD will allow obtaining a broad picture of the care of patients with diabetes, as well as their needs regarding their chronic condition. The data will be used to evaluate the PcD and help prioritise targeted actions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT01902043, July 9, 2013.

Different Effects of BORIS/CTCFL on Stemness Gene Expression, Sphere Formation and Cell Survival in Epithelial Cancer Stem Cells.

Cancer stem cells are cancer cells characterized by stem cell properties and represent a small population of tumor cells that drives tumor development, progression, metastasis and drug resistance. To date, the molecular mechanisms that generate and regulate cancer stem cells are not well defined. BORIS (Brother of Regulator of Imprinted Sites) or CTCFL (CTCF-like) is a DNA-binding protein that is expressed in normal tissues only in germ cells and is re-activated in tumors. Recent evidences have highlighted the correlation of BORIS/CTCFL expression with poor overall survival of different cancer patients. We have previously shown an association of BORIS-expressing cells with stemness gene expression in embryonic cancer cells. Here, we studied the role of BORIS in epithelial tumor cells. Using BORIS-molecular beacon that was already validated, we were able to show the presence of BORIS mRNA in cancer stem cell-enriched populations (side population and spheres) of cervical, colon and breast tumor cells. BORIS silencing studies showed a decrease of sphere formation capacity in breast and colon tumor cells. Importantly, BORIS-silencing led to down-regulation of hTERT, stem cell (NANOG, OCT4, SOX2 and BMI1) and cancer stem cell markers (ABCG2, CD44 and ALDH1) genes. Conversely, BORIS-induction led to up-regulation of the same genes. These phenotypes were observed in cervical, colon and invasive breast tumor cells. However, a completely different behavior was observed in the non-invasive breast tumor cells (MCF7). Indeed, these cells acquired an epithelial mesenchymal transition phenotype after BORIS silencing. Our results demonstrate that BORIS is associated with cancer stem cell-enriched populations of several epithelial tumor cells and the different phenotypes depend on the origin of tumor cells.