How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Overweight and eating disorders in primary care: a sentinella reporting in 2-20 years old patients

Aims: To describe overweight or eating disorders in primary care consultations of Swiss children or adolescents and analyze responses by physicians. Methods: 150 to 200 primary care physicians participating in the Swiss Sentinel Surveillance Network in collaboration with the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health register their consultations over one year for selected health conditions. We describe reports of consultations where overweight or eating disorders were identified in subjects aged 2-20 years by physicians, patients or their relatives, or referring professionals, between 29.12.2007 and 15.2.2008. Results: 189 consultations were registered in the first 7 weeks of declaration. A short majority concerned female (58%) and 12-20 years old (53%) patients. Half were reported by pediatricians, one third by general practitioners and the remaining minority by internists. The sample included two thirds of Swiss-German and one third of Swiss-French cases. In the male subgroup aged 2-20 and in female children aged 2-11, almost all reported consultations were characterized by overweight. Among female teenagers, underweight was reported in 29% whilst overweight was recorded in 60%. Anorexia was noted in 68% of reported consultations of underweight female teenagers. In underweight patients, advice given by physicians frequently covered both nutrition and physical activity (38%) or nutrition only (29%), while no specific recommendations were recorded for the remaining third. In case of overweight, for one half of consultations patients received both nutritional and physical activity recommendations, for 12% nutritional only, and for one quarter patients were not advised in these domains. No specific treatment was usually proposed to overweight patients (65%), except when bulimia was diagnosed; in such case, one third of patients were proposed a psychological/psychiatric treatment, whereas both psychological and pharmacological treatments were frequently offered for underweight teenagers. Therapy was most often motivated by physicians (50%) or by relatives (44%), more rarely by patients themselves (7%). Conclusions: These preliminary data indicate that in some primary care consultations of young patients with overweight or eating disorders, advice was not given on nutrition and physical activity. This observation needs to be later confirmed with the totality of the consultations registered in 2008 and reasons will be further investigated.

E-learning initiatives in forensic interpretation: report on experiences from current projects and outlook

This paper reports on the purpose, design, methodology and target audience of E-learning courses in forensic interpretation offered by the authors since 2010, including practical experiences made throughout the implementation period of this project. This initiative was motivated by the fact that reporting results of forensic examinations in a logically correct and scientifically rigorous way is a daily challenge for any forensic practitioner. Indeed, interpretation of raw data and communication of findings in both written and oral statements are topics where knowledge and applied skills are needed. Although most forensic scientists hold educational records in traditional sciences, only few actually followed full courses that focussed on interpretation issues. Such courses should include foundational principles and methodology - including elements of forensic statistics - for the evaluation of forensic data in a way that is tailored to meet the needs of the criminal justice system. In order to help bridge this gap, the authors' initiative seeks to offer educational opportunities that allow practitioners to acquire knowledge and competence in the current approaches to the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings. These cover, among other aspects, probabilistic reasoning (including Bayesian networks and other methods of forensic statistics, tools and software), case pre-assessment, skills in the oral and written communication of uncertainty, and the development of independence and self-confidence to solve practical inference problems. E-learning was chosen as a general format because it helps to form a trans-institutional online-community of practitioners from varying forensic disciplines and workfield experience such as reporting officers, (chief) scientists, forensic coordinators, but also lawyers who all can interact directly from their personal workplaces without consideration of distances, travel expenses or time schedules. In the authors' experience, the proposed learning initiative supports participants in developing their expertise and skills in forensic interpretation, but also offers an opportunity for the associated institutions and the forensic community to reinforce the development of a harmonized view with regard to interpretation across forensic disciplines, laboratories and judicial systems.

Diagnosis and management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the swiss guidelines: official guidelines of the Swiss Respiratory Society.

The new Swiss Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Guidelines are based on a previous version, which was published 10 years ago. The Swiss Respiratory Society felt the need to update the previous document due to new knowledge and novel therapeutic developments about this prevalent and important disease. The recommendations and statements are based on the available literature, on other national guidelines and, in particular, on the GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) report. Our aim is to advise pulmonary physicians, general practitioners and other health care workers on the early detection and diagnosis, prevention, best symptomatic control, and avoidance of COPD as well as its complications and deterioration.

Science, practice and patient needs: the work of the Plinius Maior Society.

The Plinius Maior Society is a European multinational, multidisciplinary group of clinicians and researchers in the alcoholism field, which strives for a comprehensive care concept in the management of alcoholism and alcohol-related problems. The Society, using evidence-based medicine, has developed a set of protocols, in the forms of guidelines, flow-charts, leaflets and booklets, for use as tools in research on and treatment of alcohol dependence, with a view to standardize clinical research procedures and to bridge the gap between the alcoholism researcher, practitioner and patient. These protocols or tools have been subjected to a review process during their preparation, and further comments on their validity will be integrated in their updates. Seven protocols have so far been developed, two of which, 'Guidelines on Evaluation of Treatment of Alcohol Dependence' and 'Detection and Management of Patients with Psychiatric and Alcohol Use Disorders', are aimed at the clinical researcher and specialists, whereas three others [in the form of decision trees (flow-charts)] are aimed at the general practitioner and other primary health care providers. These are entitled 'Alcohol Risk Assessment and Intervention in Primary Care', 'Withdrawal from Alcohol at Home' and 'Brief Intervention in Patients with Alcohol-Related Problems'. The remaining two tools are booklets aimed at the patient, one to support initiatives for detection of drinking problems and primary intervention, namely 'Do you have this Problem? Discuss it with your Doctor!', and the other to assist the patient in relapse prevention after the early stages of treatment, namely 'On the Way to Recovery'. The protocols for the general practitioners and patients have so far been produced in seven European languages, and, as with the Guidelines, feedback from target users will be collected and incorporated in future updates. The Society continually seeks to consider areas of clinical importance for its work and, as it enters the new millennium, it hopes to address and make a significant contribution to the most pressing problem in the management of alcohol dependence, namely relapse.

Forensic science and the paradigm of quality

Due to various contexts and processes, forensic science communities may have different approaches, largely influenced by their criminal justice systems. However, forensic science practices share some common characteristics. One is the assurance of a high (scientific) quality within processes and practices. For most crime laboratory directors and forensic science associations, this issue is conditioned by the triangle of quality, which represents the current paradigm of quality assurance in the field. It consists of the implementation of standardization, certification, accreditation, and an evaluation process. It constitutes a clear and sound way to exchange data between laboratories and enables databasing due to standardized methods ensuring reliable and valid results; but it is also a means of defining minimum requirements for practitioners' skills for specific forensic science activities. The control of each of these aspects offers non-forensic science partners the assurance that the entire process has been mastered and is trustworthy. Most of the standards focus on the analysis stage and do not consider pre- and post-laboratory stages, namely, the work achieved at the investigation scene and the evaluation and interpretation of the results, intended for intelligence beneficiaries or for court. Such localized consideration prevents forensic practitioners from identifying where the problems really lie with regard to criminal justice systems. According to a performance-management approach, scientific quality should not be restricted to standardized procedures and controls in forensic science practice. Ensuring high quality also strongly depends on the way a forensic science culture is assimilated (into specific education training and workplaces) and in the way practitioners understand forensic science as a whole.

Putting Public Service Motivation into Context. A Balance Between Universalism and Particularism

Research on Public Service Motivation (PSM) has increased enormously in the last 20 years. Besides the analysis of the antecedents of PSM and its impact on organizations and individuals, many open questions about the nature of PSM itself still remain. This article argues that the theoretical construct of PSM should be contextualized by integrating the political and administrative contexts of public servants when investigating their specific attitudes towards working in a public environment. It also challenges the efficacy of the classic four-dimensional structure of PSM when it is applied to a specific context. The findings of a confirmatory factor analysis from a dataset of 3754 employees of 279 Swiss municipalities support the appropriateness of contextualizing parts of the PSM construct. They also support the addition of an extra dimension called, according to previous research, Swiss democratic governance. With regard to our results, there is a need for further PSM research to set a definite measure of PSM, particularly in regard to the international diffusion of empirical research on PSM.Points for practitionersThis study shows that public service motivation is a relevant construct for practitioners and may be used to better assess whether public agents are motivated by values or not. Nevertheless, it stresses also that the measurement of PSM must be adapted to the institutional context as well. Public managers interested in understanding better the degree to which their employees are motivated by public values must be aware that the measurement of this PSM construct has to be contextualized. In other words, PSM is also a function of the institutional environment in which organizations operate.

Intratympanic application of an antiviral agent for the treatment of Ménière's disease.

It has been suggested that Ménière's disease is part of a polyganglionitis in which symptoms result from the reactivation of neurotropic virus within the internal auditory canal, and that intratympanic applications of an antiviral agent might be an efficient therapy. In 2002, we performed a pilot study ending with encouraging results. Control of vertigo was achieved in 80% of the 17 patients included. We present here a prospective, double-blind study, with a 2-year follow-up, in 29 patients referred by ENT practitioners for a surgical treatment after failure of a medical therapy. The participation in the study was offered to patients prior to surgery. A solution of ganciclovir 50 mg/ml or of NaCl 9% was delivered for 10 consecutive days via a microwick inserted into the tympanic membrane in the direction of the round window or through a ventilation tube. One patient was withdrawn from the study immediately after the end of the injections. He could not complete the follow-up period, because of persisting vertigo. As he had received the placebo, he was then treated with the solution of ganciclovir. Symptoms persisted and he underwent a vestibular neurectomy. Among the remaining 28 patients, surgery could be postponed in 22 (81%). Surgery remained necessary to control vertigo in 3 patients from the group that received the antiviral agent, and in 3 from the control group. Using an analogical scale, patients of both groups indicated a similar improvement of their health immediately after the intratympanic injections. The scores obtained with a 36-item short-form health survey quality of life questionnaire and the Dizziness Handicap Inventory were also similar for both groups. In conclusion, most patients were improved after the intratympanic injections, but there was no obvious difference between the treated and control groups. The benefit might be due to the middle ear ventilation or reflect an improvement in the patients' emotional state.

DEA does not like positive discrimination : a comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run themselves their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environment adjustment. Five alternative models, each of them easily accessible to and achievable by practitioners and decision makers, are performed using the empirical case of the 90 primary schools of the State of Geneva, Switzerland. As the State of Geneva practices an upstream positive discrimination policy towards schools, this empirical case is particularly appropriate for an environment adjustment. The alternative of the majority of DEA models deliver divergent results. It is a matter of concern for applied researchers and a matter of confusion for practitioners and decision makers. From a political standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially opposite decisions. Grâce à l'existence de logiciels en libre accès et de guides pédagogiques, la méthode data envelopment analysis (DEA) s'est démocratisée ces dernières années. Aujourd'hui, il n'est pas rare que les décideurs avec peu ou pas de connaissances en recherche opérationnelle réalisent eux-mêmes leur propre analyse d'efficience. A l'intérieur de la méthode DEA, plusieurs modèles permettent de tenir compte des conditions plus ou moins favorables de l'environnement. Cinq de ces modèles, facilement accessibles et applicables par les décideurs, sont utilisés pour mesurer l'efficience des 90 écoles primaires du canton de Genève, Suisse. Le canton de Genève pratiquant une politique de discrimination positive envers les écoles défavorisées, ce cas pratique est particulièrement adapté pour un ajustement à l'environnement. La majorité des modèles DEA génèrent des résultats divergents. Ce constat est préoccupant pour les chercheurs appliqués et perturbant pour les décideurs. D'un point de vue politique, ces résultats divergents conduisent à des prises de décision différentes selon le modèle sur lequel elles sont fondées.

Consommation d'alcool et de benzodiozépines au troisième âge [Consumption of alcohol and benzodiazepines in the elderly]

In Switzerland, 9.1% of the general population accept regular consumption of BZD. In 65-74 years age group, 2% of cases display a high-risk alcohol consumption. Moderate risk consumption is present in 5% of cases. For the BZD, the cognitive difficulties settle in an insidious way; for alcohol, the daily consumption of fairly high quantities may lead to cognitive deterioration. At early stages, alcohol abusers show preserved neuropsychological performances. Gradually, the deficits will affect the remaining cognitive functions and become irreversible. This review indicates that the chronic consumption of alcohol and BZD in old age is at the origin of major clinical difficulties that need ad hoc training both for psychiatrists and general practitioners.

[Hematological malignancy: management of anemia and leukopenia by primary care physicians]

In hematological malignancies, the occurrence of anemia is very common and can have significant consequences on daily life. Treatment includes essentially red blood cell transfusions. The prescription of erythropoietic agents and/or iron is exceptionnal and often not registered in Switzerland. The onset of neutropenia is also frequently encountered and in some situations may require the prescription of myeloid growth factors. The purpose of this article is to focus on the current recommendations of these two issues for practitioners.

Place de la clinique en médecine ambulatoire--les enseignements de l'etude TOPIC [The place of the clinic in primary case--the TOPIC study].

We know very little about the importance of history and physical examination compared to the importance of paraclinical tests in the diagnostic process in primary care. To answer this question, we examined prospectively 672 consecutive patients with chest pain in primary care. We recorded the timing and the clinical characteristics of the most frequent diagnosis. The resort to laboratory or other clinical tests and reference to specialist were influenced by: emergency consultation, potentially life-threatening aetiology, personal characteristics of the general practitioners' (GP) and patients' anxiety. GPs attributed the diagnosis to history and physical examination alone in 66% and to the association of history, physical examination and tests in 31% cases. This, clinical strategy remains the most important factor in the diagnostic process; even when they are insufficient, they allowed to generate hypotheses and guide investigations.

Gestational diabetes mellitus and the risk of metabolic syndrome: a population-based study in Lausanne, Switzerland.

AIMS: To investigate the relationships between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and the metabolic syndrome (MS), as it was suggested that insulin resistance was the hallmark of both conditions. To analyse post-partum screening in order to identify risk factors for the subsequent development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of all singleton pregnancies diagnosed with GDM at the Lausanne University Hospital for 3 consecutive years. Pre-pregnancy obesity, hypertension and dyslipidaemia were recorded as constituents of the MS. RESULTS: For 5788 deliveries, 159 women (2.7%) with GDM were identified. Constituents of the MS were present before GDM pregnancy in 26% (n = 37/144): 84% (n = 31/37) were obese, 38% (n = 14/37) had hypertension and 22% (n = 8/37) had dyslipidaemia. Gestational hypertension was associated with obesity (OR = 3.2, P = 0.02) and dyslipidaemia (OR = 5.4, P=0.002). Seventy-four women (47%) returned for post-partum OGTT, which was abnormal in 20 women (27%): 11% (n = 8) had type 2 diabetes and 16% (n = 12) had impaired glucose tolerance. Independent predictors of abnormal glucose tolerance in the post-partum were: having > 2 abnormal values on the diagnostic OGTT during pregnancy and presenting MS constituents (OR = 5.2, CI 1.8-23.2 and OR = 5.3, CI 1.3-22.2). CONCLUSIONS: In one fourth of GDM pregnancies, metabolic abnormalities precede the appearance of glucose intolerance. These women have a high risk of developing the MS and type 2 diabetes in later years. Where GDM screening is not universal, practitioners should be aware of those metabolic risks in every pregnant woman presenting with obesity, hypertension or dyslipidaemia, in order to achieve better diagnosis and especially better post-partum follow-up and treatment.

Collaboration entre médecin de famille et psychiatre pour les problèmes de santé mentale [Family physicians and psychiatrists' collaborative care for mental health problems].

The burden of disease linked to mental disorders represents more than one-fifth of years lived with disability in the world. Less than half of people suffering from mental disorders are adequately treated. Three quarter of those who receive treatment are followed by primary care. Collaborative care aims to increase the efficiency of direct general practitioner's treatment. Main components are sustainable and individualized consultation-liaison relationship (1/2 day of psychiatrist by 15 days for 10-15 general practitioners), and support of a clinical case manager for complex situations. Collaboration is bidirectional: early or crisis access to specialist care and long-term followup by general practitioner. This model is a challenge for the doctor-patient dual relationship and requires incentives in a public health perspective.

Prise en charge des patients avec des problèmes d'alcool: quelle efficacité? Quelques éléments de réponse à partir d'une revue de la littérature [Management of patients with alcohol problems: how effective? Several response factors based on a review of the literature]

What do we know about the effectiveness of various treatments of alcoholism? This review of literature shows that lack--or weaknesses--of published studies make it impossible to draw definite conclusions. Rigorous controlled studies show high rates of spontaneous remission and important uncertainties about specialised treatments of alcoholism. However, except for severe dependence that may well require a different approach, brief interventions conducted by non-specialists have proved highly effective for at-risk alcohol drinkers: based on minimal medical advice, they increase the chances of lowering alcohol consumption. General practitioners may thus represent on important link in the therapeutic chain.