Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Nullification of small knots

in the paper we consider the nullification number of small knots with at most 9 crossings. We establish two inequalities (Corollary 2.1) relating the nullification number to other knot invariants and properties of the knot diagram. We show that these inequalities allow us to settle the nullification number for all of the 84 prime knots with at most 9 crossings.

Structure of the ovaries of the Nimba otter shrew, Micropotamogale lamottei, and the Madagascar hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi.

The otter shrews are members of the subfamily Potamogalinae within the family Tenrecidae. No description of the ovaries of any member of this subfamily has been published previously. The lesser hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi, is a member of the subfamily Tenrecinae of the same family and, although its ovaries have not been described, other members of this subfamily have been shown to have ovaries with non-antral follicles. Examination of these two species illustrated that non-antral follicles were characteristic of the ovaries of both species, as was clefting and lobulation of the ovaries. Juvenile otter shrews range from those with only small follicles in the cortex to those with 300- to 400-microm follicles similar to those seen in non-pregnant and pregnant adults. As in other species, most of the growth of the oocyte occurred when follicles had one to two layers of granulosa cells. When larger follicles became atretic in the Nimba otter shrew, hypertrophy of the theca interna produced nodules of glandular interstitial tissue. In the tenrec, the hypertrophying theca interna cells in most large follicles appeared to undergo degeneration. Both species had some follicular fluid in the intercellular spaces between the more peripheral granulosa cells. It is suggested that this fluid could aid in separation of the cumulus from the remaining granulosa at ovulation. The protruding follicles in lobules and absence of a tunica albuginea might also facilitate ovulation of non-antral follicles. Ovaries with a thin-absent tunica albuginea and follicles with small-absent antra are widespread within both the Eulipotyphla and in the Afrosoricida, suggesting that such features may represent a primitive condition in ovarian development. Lobulated and deeply crypted ovaries are found in both groups but are not as common in the Eulipotyphla making inclusion of this feature as primitive more speculative.

Enhanced-reality video fluorescence: a real-time assessment of intestinal viability.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to evaluate a fluorescence-based enhanced-reality system to assess intestinal viability in a laparoscopic mesenteric ischemia model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A small bowel loop was exposed, and 3 to 4 mesenteric vessels were clipped in 6 pigs. Indocyanine green (ICG) was administered intravenously 15 minutes later. The bowel was illuminated with an incoherent light source laparoscope (D-light-P, KarlStorz). The ICG fluorescence signal was analyzed with Ad Hoc imaging software (VR-RENDER), which provides a digital perfusion cartography that was superimposed to the intraoperative laparoscopic image [augmented reality (AR) synthesis]. Five regions of interest (ROIs) were marked under AR guidance (1, 2a-2b, 3a-3b corresponding to the ischemic, marginal, and vascularized zones, respectively). One hour later, capillary blood samples were obtained by puncturing the bowel serosa at the identified ROIs and lactates were measured using the EDGE analyzer. A surgical biopsy of each intestinal ROI was sent for mitochondrial respiratory rate assessment and for metabolites quantification. RESULTS: Mean capillary lactate levels were 3.98 (SD = 1.91) versus 1.05 (SD = 0.46) versus 0.74 (SD = 0.34) mmol/L at ROI 1 versus 2a-2b (P = 0.0001) versus 3a-3b (P = 0.0001), respectively. Mean maximal mitochondrial respiratory rate was 104.4 (±21.58) pmolO2/second/mg at the ROI 1 versus 191.1 ± 14.48 (2b, P = 0.03) versus 180.4 ± 16.71 (3a, P = 0.02) versus 199.2 ± 25.21 (3b, P = 0.02). Alanine, choline, ethanolamine, glucose, lactate, myoinositol, phosphocholine, sylloinositol, and valine showed statistically significant different concentrations between ischemic and nonischemic segments. CONCLUSIONS: Fluorescence-based AR may effectively detect the boundary between the ischemic and the vascularized zones in this experimental model.

Religious coping in schizophrenia patients : spiritual support in medical care and pastoral counselling

Following an introduction focusing on the role of religion in the treatment of psychosis, the first part of this paper describes an initial study in which the role of spirituality and religiosity was assessed in 115 patients with schizophrenia in Geneva (Switzerland) and 126 in Trois-Rivières (Quebec). These themes have been shown to be highly prevalent for these patients, though their clinicians are often unaware of this prevalence. The following part of the paper presents a second study where religious supervision was offered to clinicians in Geneva. Comparison between forty patients who received spiritual assessment and opportunities to work on religious topics with their clinicians was made with thirty patients without religious intervention. In the supervisory sessions, six different types of religious interventions were suggested. Outcomes at three months show that patients of the intervention group maintain their interest for help in religious matters while clinicians' interest in integrating religious topics in discussions with their patients has decreased. The third and main part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the suggested interventions from the viewpoint of the study of religions. Five aspects of religion are distinguished, and explanations of the reasons some of them are easier to manage for clinicians are proposed. The paper concludes with proposals for the education of clinicians to help them to differentiate different kinds of religious coping and to recognize when it could be helpful to refer the patient to a pastoral counsellor.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Notch signaling regulates follicular helper T cell differentiation.

Follicular helper T (TFH) cells are specialized in providing help for B cell differentiation and Ab secretion. Several positive and negative regulators of TFH cell differentiation have been described but their control is not fully understood. In this study, we show that Notch signaling in T cells is a major player in the development and function of TFH cells. T cell-specific gene ablation of Notch1 and Notch2 impaired differentiation of TFH cells in draining lymph nodes of mice immunized with T-dependent Ags or infected with parasites. Impaired TFH cell differentiation correlated with deficient germinal center development and the absence of high-affinity Abs. The impact of loss of Notch on TFH cell differentiation was largely independent of its effect on IL-4. These results show a previously unknown role for Notch in the regulation of TFH cell differentiation and function with implications for the control of this T cell population.

Cumulative Shapes of Knotted Polymers

We investigate the influence of knotting and chirality on the shape of knotted polygons forming trefoil knots compared to unknotted polygons by aligning independent configurations along their principal inertial axes. While for six edge polygons forming trefoil knots the chiral knotted structure is revealed in the isodensity profiles, the distinct chiral signature of the trefoil is significantly diminished with 24 edges. We observe that as the number of edges in the polygons increases, the cumulative shapes of trefoil knots progressively approach the cumulative shapes for unknotted polygons.

Predictive accuracy of original and recalibrated Framingham risk score in the Swiss population.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and recalibrated Framingham risk function on current morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality data from the Swiss population. METHODS: Data from the CoLaus study, a cross-sectional, population-based study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on 5,773 participants aged 35-74 without CHD were used to recalibrate the Framingham risk function. The predicted number of events from each risk function were compared with those issued from local MONICA incidence rates and official mortality data from Switzerland. RESULTS: With the original risk function, 57.3%, 21.2%, 16.4% and 5.1% of men and 94.9%, 3.8%, 1.2% and 0.1% of women were at very low (<6%), low (6-10%), intermediate (10-20%) and high (>20%) risk, respectively. With the recalibrated risk function, the corresponding values were 84.7%, 10.3%, 4.3% and 0.6% in men and 99.5%, 0.4%, 0.0% and 0.1% in women, respectively. The number of CHD events over 10 years predicted by the original Framingham risk function was 2-3 fold higher than predicted by mortality+case fatality or by MONICA incidence rates (men: 191 vs. 92 and 51 events, respectively). The recalibrated risk function provided more reasonable estimates, albeit slightly overestimated (92 events, 5-95th percentile: 26-223 events); sensitivity analyses showed that the magnitude of the overestimation was between 0.4 and 2.2 in men, and 0.7 and 3.3 in women. CONCLUSION: The recalibrated Framingham risk function provides a reasonable alternative to assess CHD risk in men, but not in women.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Prognostic value of early MR imaging in term infants with severe perinatal asphyxia.

The prognostic significance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the neonatal period was studied prospectively in 43 term infants with perinatal asphyxia. MRI was performed between 1 and 14 days after birth with a high field system (2.35 Tesla). Neurodevelopmental outcome was assessed by a standardized neurological examination and the Griffiths developmental test at a mean age of 18.9 months. The predictive value of the various MRI patterns was as follows: Severe diffuse brain injury (pattern AII+III; n = 7) and lesions of thalamus and basal ganglia (pattern C; n = 5) were strongly associated with poor outcome and greatly reduced head growth. Mild diffuse brain injury (pattern AI; n = 7), parasagittal lesions (B; n = 7), periventricular hyperintensity (D; n = 2), focal brain necrosis and hemorrhage (E; n = 3) and periventricular hypointense stripes (on T2-weighted images; F; n = 3) led in one third of the infants to minor neurological disturbances and mild developmental delay. Infants with normal MRI findings (G; n = 9) developed normally with the exception of one infant who was mildly delayed at 18 months. The results indicate that MRI examination during the first two weeks of life is of prognostic significance in term infants suffering from perinatal asphyxia. Severe hypoxic-ischemic brain lesions were associated highly significantly with poor neuro-developmental outcome, whereas infants with inconspicuous MRI developed normally.