Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Spatial learning by rats across visually disconnected environments

Experiments were designed to examine some properties of spatial representations in rats. Adult subjects were trained to escape through a hole at a fixed position in a large circular arena (see Schenk 1989). The experiments were conducted in the dark, with a limited number of controlled visual light cues in order to assess the minimal cue requirement for place learning. Three identical light cues (shape, height and distance from the table) were used. Depending on the condition, they were either permanently on, or alternatively on or off, depending on the position of the rat in the field. Two questions were asked: a) how many identical visual cues were necessary for spatial discrimination in the dark, and b) could rats integrate the relative positions of separate cues, under conditions in which the rat was never allowed to perceive all three cues simultaneously. The results suggest that rats are able to achieve a place discrimination task even if the three cues necessary for efficient orientation can never be seen simultaneously. A dissociation between the discrimination of the spatial position of the goal and the capacity to reach it by a direct path suggests that a reduced number of cues might require prolonged locomotion to allow an accurate orientation in the environment.

Impact of cannabis inhalation on driving skills in occasional smokers

Objectives: Our aim was to study the brain regions involved in a divided attention tracking task related to driving in occasional cannabis smokers. In addition we assessed the relationship between THC levels in whole blood and changes in brain activity, behavioural and psychomotor performances. Methods: Twenty-one smokers participated to two independent cross-over fMRI experiments before and after smoking cannabis and a placebo. The paradigm was based on a visuo-motor tracking task, alternating active tracking blocks with passive tracking viewing and rest condition. Half of the active tracking conditions included randomly presented traffic lights as distractors. Blood samples were taken at regular intervals to determine the time-profiles of the major cannabinoids. Their levels during the fMRI experiments were interpolated from concentrations measured by GCMS/ MS just before and after brain imaging. Results: Behavioural data, such as the discard between target and cursor, the time of correct tracking and the reaction time during traffic lights appearance showed a statistical significant impairment of subject s skills due to THC intoxication. Highest THC blood concentrations were measured soon after smoking and ranged between 28.8 and 167.9 ng/ml. These concentrations reached values of a few ng/ml during the fMRI. fMRI results pointed out that under the effect of THC, high order visual areas (V3d) and Intraparietal sulcus (IPS) showed an higher activation compared to the control condition. The opposite comparison showed a decrease of activation during the THC condition in the anterior cingulate gyrus and orbitofrontal areas. In these locations, the BOLD showed a negative correlation with the THC level. Conclusion: Acute cannabis smoking significantly impairs performances and brain activity during active tracking tasks, partly reorganizing the recruitment of brain areas of the attention network. Neural activity in the anterior cingulate might be responsible of the changes in the cognitive controls required in our divided attention task.

Division de l'attention lors d'interventions d'urgence préhospitalière : quelques apports de l'analyse d'activité en situation réelle de travail

Problème : Les ambulanciers effectuent souvent des tâches en contexte de division de l'attention. Cette caractéristique du travail peut contribuer à augmenter les risques d'erreurs ou ralentir le déroulement des interventions. Dans les situations d'urgences préhospitalières, cela peut avoir des conséquences dramatiques pour le patient et pour les intervenants. Méthode : Nous avons analysé l'activité réelle de travail d'ambulanciers en contexte d'intervention d'urgences. Notre démarche a impliqué l'accompagnement d'ambulanciers lors d'interventions réelles qu'il nous a été possible de filmer. Les analyses effectuées par une équipe multidisciplinaire ont de plus été complétées et validées par des séances en auto-confrontation. Résultats : Nos analyses ont permis de constater plusieurs exemples de travail en contexte de division de l'attention. De plus, nous avons aussi été en mesure de documenter certaines stratégies mises en oeuvre par ces professionnels afin de diminuer la charge cognitive attribuable à la division de l'attention. Conclusion : Notre étude pilote a permis de mieux comprendre le travail des ambulanciers. Nous avons constaté que la division de l'attention est fréquente et que les professionnels confrontés à cette exigence développent diverses stratégies pour y faire face. Nous avons aussi montré la faisabilité et la pertinence de l'analyse de l'activité réelle de travail lors d'interventions d'urgences préhospitalières. [Auteurs]

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

A new neuropsychological instrument measuring effects of age and drugs on fitness to drive: development, reliability, and validity of MedDrive

Background: Current guidelines underline the limitations of existing instruments to assess fitness to drive and the poor adaptability of batteries of neuropsychological tests in primary care settings. Aims: To provide a free, reliable, transparent computer based instrument capable of detecting effects of age or drugs on visual processing and cognitive functions. Methods: Relying on systematic reviews of neuropsychological tests and driving performances, we conceived four new computed tasks measuring: visual processing (Task1), movement attention shift (Task2), executive response, alerting and orientation gain (Task3), and spatial memory (Task4). We then planned five studies to test MedDrive's reliability and validity. Study-1 defined instructions and learning functions collecting data from 105 senior drivers attending an automobile club course. Study-2 assessed concurrent validity for detecting minor cognitive impairment (MCI) against useful field of view (UFOV) on 120 new senior drivers. Study-3 collected data from 200 healthy drivers aged 20-90 to model age related normal cognitive decline. Study-4 measured MedDrive's reliability having 21 healthy volunteers repeat tests five times. Study-5 tested MedDrive's responsiveness to alcohol in a randomised, double-blinded, placebo, crossover, dose-response validation trial including 20 young healthy volunteers. Results: Instructions were well understood and accepted by all senior drivers. Measures of visual processing (Task1) showed better performances than the UFOV in detecting MCI (ROC 0.770 vs. 0.620; p=0.048). MedDrive was capable of explaining 43.4% of changes occurring with natural cognitive decline. In young healthy drivers, learning effects became negligible from the third session onwards for all tasks except for dual tasking (ICC=0.769). All measures except alerting and orientation gain were affected by blood alcohol concentrations. Finally, MedDrive was able to explain 29.3% of potential causes of swerving on the driving simulator. Discussion and conclusions: MedDrive reveals improved performances compared to existing computed neuropsychological tasks. It shows promising results both for clinical and research purposes.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

A temporal hierarchy for conspecific vocalization discrimination in humans.

Introduction: Discrimination of species-specific vocalizations is fundamental for survival and social interactions. Its unique behavioral relevance has encouraged the identification of circumscribed brain regions exhibiting selective responses (Belin et al., 2004), while the role of network dynamics has received less attention. Those studies that have examined the brain dynamics of vocalization discrimination leave unresolved the timing and the inter-relationship between general categorization, attention, and speech-related processes (Levy et al., 2001, 2003; Charest et al., 2009). Given these discrepancies and the presence of several confounding factors, electrical neuroimaging analyses were applied to auditory evoked-potential (AEPs) to acoustically and psychophysically controlled non-verbal human and animal vocalizations. This revealed which region(s) exhibit voice-sensitive responses and in which sequence. Methods: Subjects (N=10) performed a living vs. man-made 'oddball' auditory discrimination task, such that on a given block of trials 'target' stimuli occurred 10% of the time. Stimuli were complex, meaningful sounds of 500ms duration. There were 120 different sound files in total, 60 of which represented sounds of living objects and 60 man-made objects. The stimuli that were the focus of the present investigation were restricted to those of living objects within blocks where no response was required. These stimuli were further sorted between human non-verbal vocalizations and animal vocalizations. They were also controlled in terms of their spectrograms and formant distributions. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired through Neuroscan Synamps referenced to the nose, band-pass filtered 0.05-200Hz, and digitized at 1000Hz. Peri-stimulus epochs of continuous EEG (-100ms to 900ms) were visually inspected for artifacts, 40Hz low-passed filtered and baseline corrected using the pre-stimulus period . Averages were computed from each subject separately. AEPs in response to animal and human vocalizations were analyzed with respect to differences of Global Field Power (GFP) and with respect to changes of the voltage configurations at the scalp (reviewed in Murray et al., 2008). The former provides a measure of the strength of the electric field irrespective of topographic differences; the latter identifies changes in spatial configurations of the underlying sources independently of the response strength. In addition, we utilized the local auto-regressive average distributed linear inverse solution (LAURA; Grave de Peralta Menendez et al., 2001) to visualize and statistically contrast the likely underlying sources of effects identified in the preceding analysis steps. Results: We found differential activity in response to human vocalizations over three periods in the post-stimulus interval, and this response was always stronger than that to animal vocalizations. The first differential response (169-219ms) was a consequence of a modulation in strength of a common brain network localized into the right superior temporal sulcus (STS; Brodmann's Area (BA) 22) and extending into the superior temporal gyrus (STG; BA 41). A second difference (291-357ms) also followed from strength modulations of a common network with statistical differences localized to the left inferior precentral and prefrontal gyrus (BA 6/45). These two first strength modulations correlated (Spearman's rho(8)=0.770; p=0.009) indicative of functional coupling between temporally segregated stages of vocalization discrimination. A third difference (389-667ms) followed from strength and topographic modulations and was localized to the left superior frontal gyrus (BA10) although this third difference did not reach our spatial criterion of 12 continuous voxels. Conclusions: We show that voice discrimination unfolds over multiple temporal stages, involving a wide network of brain regions. The initial stages of vocalization discrimination are based on modulations in response strength within a common brain network with no evidence for a voice-selective module. The latency of this effect parallels that of face discrimination (Bentin et al., 2007), supporting the possibility that voice and face processes can mutually inform one another. Putative underlying sources (localized in the right STS; BA 22) are consistent with prior hemodynamic imaging evidence in humans (Belin et al., 2004). Our effect over the 291-357ms post-stimulus period overlaps the 'voice-specific-response' reported by Levy et al. (Levy et al., 2001) and the estimated underlying sources (left BA6/45) were in agreement with previous findings in humans (Fecteau et al., 2005). These results challenge the idea that circumscribed and selective areas subserve con-specific vocalization processing.

Functional MRI Mapping of the Human Auditory Cortex

Mapping the human auditory cortex with standard functional imaging techniques is difficult because of its small size and angular position along the Sylvian fissure. As a result, the exact number and location of auditory cortex areas in the human remains unknown. In a first experiment, we measured the two largest tonotopic areas of primary auditory cortex (PAC, Al and R) using high-resolution functional MRI at 7 Tesla relative to the underlying anatomy of Heschl's gyrus (HG). The data reveals a clear anatomical- functional relationship that indicates the location of PAC across the range of common morphological variants of HG (single gyri, partial duplication and complete duplication). Human PAC tonotopic areas are oriented along an oblique posterior-to-anterior axis with mirror-symmetric frequency gradients perpendicular to HG, as in the macaque. In a second experiment, we tested whether these primary frequency-tuned units were modulated by selective attention to preferred vs. non-preferred sound frequencies in the dynamic manner needed to account for human listening abilities in noisy environments, such as cocktail parties or busy streets. We used a dual-stream selective attention experiment where subjects attended to one of two competing tonal streams presented simultaneously to different ears. Attention to low-frequency tones (250 Hz) enhanced neural responses within low-frequency-tuned voxels relative to high (4000 Hz), and vice versa when at-tention switched from high to low. Human PAC is able to tune into attended frequency channels and can switch frequencies on demand, like a radio. In a third experiment, we investigated repetition suppression effects to environmental sounds within primary and non-primary early-stage auditory areas, identified with the tonotopic mapping design. Repeated presentations of sounds from the same sources, as compared to different sources, gave repetition suppression effects within posterior and medial non-primary areas of the right hemisphere, reflecting their potential involvement in semantic representations. These three studies were conducted at 7 Tesla with high-resolution imaging. However, 7 Tesla scanners are, for the moment, not yet used for clinical diagnosis and mostly reside in institutions external to hospitals. Thus, hospital-based clinical functional and structural studies are mainly performed using lower field systems (1.5 or 3 Tesla). In a fourth experiment, we acquired tonotopic maps at 3 and 7 Tesla and evaluated the consistency of a tonotopic mapping paradigm between scanners. Mirror-symmetric gradients within PAC were highly similar at 7 and 3 Tesla across renderings at different spatial resolutions. We concluded that the tonotopic mapping paradigm is robust and suitable for definition of primary tonotopic areas, also at 3 Tesla. Finally, in a fifth study, we considered whether focal brain lesions alter tonotopic representations in the intact ipsi- and contralesional primary auditory cortex in three patients with hemispheric or cerebellar lesions, without and with auditory complaints. We found evidence for tonotopic reorganisation at the level of the primary auditory cortex in cases of brain lesions independently of auditory complaints. Overall, these results reflect a certain degree of plasticity within primary auditory cortex in different populations of subjects, assessed at different field strengths. - La cartographie du cortex auditif chez l'humain est difficile à réaliser avec des techniques d'imagerie fonctionnelle standard, étant donné sa petite taille et position angulaire le long de la fissure sylvienne. En conséquence, le nombre et l'emplacement exacts des différentes aires du cortex auditif restent inconnus chez l'homme. Lors d'une première expérience, nous avons mesuré, avec de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique à haute intensité (IRMf à 7 Tesla) chez des sujets humains sains, deux larges aires au sein du cortex auditif primaire (PAC; Al et R) avec une représentation spécifique des fréquences pures préférées - ou tonotopie. Nos résultats ont démontré une relation anatomico- fonctionnelle qui définit clairement la position du PAC à travers toutes les variantes du gyrus d'Heschl's (HG). Les aires tonotopiques du PAC humain sont orientées le long d'un axe postéro-antérieur oblique avec des gradients de fréquences spécifiques perpendiculaires à HG, d'une manière similaire à celles mesurées chez le singe. Dans une deuxième expérience, nous avons testé si ces aires primaires pouvaient être modulées, de façon dynamique, par une attention sélective pour des fréquences préférées par rapport à celles non-préférées. Cette modulation est primordiale lors d'interactions sociales chez l'humain en présence de bruits distracteurs tels que d'autres discussions ou un environnement sonore nuisible (comme par exemple, dans la circulation routière). Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé une expérience d'attention sélective où le sujet devait être attentif à une des deux voies sonores présentées simultanément à chaque oreille. Lorsque le sujet portait était attentif aux sons de basses fréquences (250 Hz), la réponse neuronale relative à ces fréquences augmentait par rapport à celle des hautes fréquences (4000 Hz), et vice versa lorsque l'attention passait des hautes aux basses fréquences. De ce fait, nous pouvons dire que PAC est capable de focaliser sur la fréquence attendue et de changer de canal selon la demande, comme une radio. Lors d'une troisième expérience, nous avons étudié les effets de suppression due à la répétition de sons environnementaux dans les aires auditives primaires et non-primaires, d'abord identifiées via le protocole de la première étude. La présentation répétée de sons provenant de la même source sonore, par rapport à de sons de différentes sources sonores, a induit un effet de suppression dans les aires postérieures et médiales auditives non-primaires de l'hémisphère droite, reflétant une implication de ces aires dans la représentation de la catégorie sémantique. Ces trois études ont été réalisées avec de l'imagerie à haute résolution à 7 Tesla. Cependant, les scanners 7 Tesla ne sont pour le moment utilisés que pour de la recherche fondamentale, principalement dans des institutions externes, parfois proches du patient mais pas directement à son chevet. L'imagerie fonctionnelle et structurelle clinique se fait actuellement principalement avec des infrastructures cliniques à 1.5 ou 3 Tesla. Dans le cadre dune quatrième expérience, nous avons avons évalués la cohérence du paradigme de cartographie tonotopique à travers différents scanners (3 et 7 Tesla) chez les mêmes sujets. Nos résultats démontrent des gradients de fréquences définissant PAC très similaires à 3 et 7 Tesla. De ce fait, notre paradigme de définition des aires primaires auditives est robuste et applicable cliniquement. Finalement, nous avons évalués l'impact de lésions focales sur les représentations tonotopiques des aires auditives primaires des hémisphères intactes contralésionales et ipsilésionales chez trois patients avec des lésions hémisphériques ou cérébélleuses avec ou sans plaintes auditives. Nous avons trouvé l'évidence d'une certaine réorganisation des représentations topographiques au niveau de PAC dans le cas de lésions cérébrales indépendamment des plaintes auditives. En conclusion, nos résultats démontrent une certaine plasticité du cortex auditif primaire avec différentes populations de sujets et différents champs magnétiques.