The recent decline in mortality from Hodgkin lymphomas in central and eastern Europe

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is a largely curable disease and its mortality had steadily declined in western Europe since the late 1960s. Only modest declines were, however, observed in central/eastern Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We updated trends in mortality from HL in various European areas up to 2004 and analyzed patterns in incidence for selected European countries providing national data. RESULTS: In most western European countries, HL mortality continued to steadily decline up to the mid 2000s. More recent reductions were also observed in eastern European countries. Overall, mortality from HL declined from 1.17/100,000 (age-standardized, world population) in 1980-1989 to 1.42/100,000 in 2000-2004 in men from the 15 member states of the European Union (EU) from western and northern Europe. In the EU 10 accession countries of central and eastern Europe, male mortality from HL was 1.42/100,000 in 1980-1984, 1.32 in 1990-1994, and declined to 0.76 in 2000-2004. Similar trends were observed in women. No consistent patterns were found for HL incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The present work confirms the persistent declines in HL mortality in western European countries, and shows favorable patterns over more recent calendar years in central/eastern ones, where rates, however, are still at levels observed in western Europe in the early 1990s.

Mortality associated with diabetes mellitus in comparison with history of cardiovascular disease in older women.

Current treatment guidelines consider diabetes to be equivalent to existing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but few data exist about the relative importance of these risk factors for total and CVD mortality in older women.We studied 9704 women aged >= 65 years enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up of 13 years and compared all-cause and CVD mortality among non-diabetic women without and with history of CVD at baseline and diabetic women without and with history of CVD. Diabetes mellitus and CVD were defined as self-report of physician diagnoses. Cause of death was adjudicated from death certificates and medical records when available. Ascertainment of vital status was 99% complete. Multivariate Cox hazard models adjusted for age, smoking, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, waist girth and education were used to compare mortality among the four groups with non-diabetic women without CVD as the referent group. At baseline mean age was 71.7 } 5.3 years, 7.0% reported diabetes mellitus and 14.5% reported prior CVD. 4257 women died during follow-up, 36.6% were attributed to CVD. Compared to non-diabetic women without prior CVD, the risk of CVD mortality was elevated among both non-diabetic women with CVD (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.07, P <0.001) and diabetic women without prior CVD (HR = 2.24, CI: 1.87-2.69, P <0.001). CVD mortality was highest among diabetic women with CVD (HR = 3.41, CI: 2.61-4.45, P <0.001). Compared to non-diabetic women with CVD, diabetic women without prior CVD had a significantly higher adjusted HR for total and CVD mortality (P < 0.001 and P <0.05 respectively). Older diabetic women without prior CVD have a higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared to nondiabetic women with pre-existing CVD. For older women, these data support the equivalence of prior CVD and diabetes mellitus in current guidelines for the prevention of CVD in primary care.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009 : analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75 000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. DATA: Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5-2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. CONCLUSIONS: The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions.

Veränderung von Inzidenz und Mortalität von Kopf-Hals-Malignomen in Rheinland-Pfalz, 2000-2009 [Changes in Incidence and Mortality Trends of Head and Neck Cancer in Rhineland-Palatinate, 2000-2009].

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on HNC are often reported aggregated despite their anatomical and histological heterogeneity. In Germany, few studies have analyzed incidence and mortality trends separately for specific anatomic sites. Furthermore, little is known about whether the incidence of HPV-associated tumour entities of the head and neck region has increased. METHODS: Based on cancer registry data from Rhineland-Palatinate from 2000 to 2009, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for all HNC sites and localisation groups that might be HPV-associated according to the literature. Trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression and reported as the annual percentage change (APC). RESULTS: Throughout the study period, 8 055 incident cases and 3 177 deaths were identified. The incidence rates of overall HNC increased among women (APC:+2.2%) and declined slightly among men (- 0.9%). Significantly increasing incidence rates among women were seen for tumours of the oral cavity (+2.7%) and the oropharynx (+3.6%). Among men, a significant decrease in incidence rates for tumours of the hypopharynx (-3.4%) and the larynx (-2.7%) are noteworthy. Cancers at HPV-associated sites showed increased incidence rates in men (+3.3%) and women (+4.3%). A decrease in mortality was found for tumours of the larynx in both sexes (-5.8% men,-9.1% women). CONCLUSIONS: A detailed analysis by localisation of HNC showed significant and often opposing trends for men and women regarding incidence and mortality.

Signs of a vector's adaptive choice: on the evasion of infectious hosts and parasite-induced mortality

Laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated in many cases that malaria vectors do not feed randomly, but show important preferences either for infected or non-infected hosts. These preferences are likely in part shaped by the costs imposed by the parasites on both their vertebrate and dipteran hosts. However, the effect of changes in vector behaviour on actual parasite transmission remains a debated issue. We used the natural associations between a malaria-like parasite Polychromophilus murinus, the bat fly Nycteribia kolenatii and a vertebrate host the Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii to test the vector's feeding preference based on the host's infection status using two different approaches: 1) controlled behavioural assays in the laboratory where bat flies could choose between a pair of hosts; 2) natural bat fly abundance data from wild-caught bats, serving as an approximation of realised feeding preference of the bat flies. Hosts with the fewest infectious stages of the parasite were most attractive to the bat flies that did switch in the behavioural assay. In line with the hypothesis of costs imposed by parasites on their vectors, bat flies carrying parasites had higher mortality. However, in wild populations, bat flies were found feeding more based on the bat's body condition, rather than its infection level. Though the absolute frequency of host switches performed by the bat flies during the assays was low, in the context of potential parasite transmission they were extremely high. The decreased survival of infected bat flies suggests that the preference for less infected hosts is an adaptive trait. Nonetheless, other ecological processes ultimately determine the vector's biting rate and thus transmission. Inherent vector preferences therefore play only a marginal role in parasite transmission in the field. The ecological processes rather than preferences per se need to be identified for successful epidemiological predictions.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS: Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION: Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.

Reducing Cardiovascular Mortality Through Prevention and Management of Raised Blood Pressure: A World Heart Federation Roadmap.

Prospective epidemiological data have shown that blood pressure has a graded, continuous adverse effect on the risk of various forms of CVD (including stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and end-stage renal disease). 'Raised blood pressure' is frequently considered to be any systolic blood pressure greater than 115 mmHg. It accounts for 45% of all heart disease deaths and 51% of all stroke-related deaths [1], which together are the biggest causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide [2,3,4]. Annually, there are >17 million deaths due to CVD worldwide, of which 9.4 million are attributable to complications of raised blood pressure. This highlights the importance of both high-risk and population-based strategies in blood pressure management and control.

Weather and cardiovascular mortality.

Already in ancient Greece, Hippocrates postulated that disease showed a seasonal pattern characterised by excess winter mortality. Since then, several studies have confirmed this finding, and it was generally accepted that the increase in winter mortality was mostly due to respiratory infections and seasonal influenza. More recently, it was shown that cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality also displayed such seasonality, and that the magnitude of the seasonal effect increased from the poles to the equator. The recent study by Yang et al assessed CVD mortality attributable to ambient temperature using daily data from 15 cities in China for years 2007-2013, including nearly two million CVD deaths. A high temperature variability between and within cities can be observed (figure 1). They used sophisticated statistical methodology to account for the complex temperature-mortality relationship; first, distributed lag non-linear models combined with quasi-Poisson regression to obtain city-specific estimates, taking into account temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure; then, a meta-analysis to obtain the pooled estimates. The results confirm the winter excess mortality as reported by the Eurowinter3 and other4 groups, but they show that the magnitude of ambient temperature.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2016 with focus on leukemias.

BACKGROUND: Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision making and resource allocation. Age standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemia and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100,000 men and 85.2/100,000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011, due to population ageing) corresponding to 753,600 and 605,900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1,359,500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared to 2011). In men lung, colorectal and prostate cancer fell 11%, 5% and 8% since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and Pancreatic cancer rates rose 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100,000 women. Leukemia shows favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups with stronger falls in the younger age groups, rates are 4.0/100,000 men and 2.5/100,000 women, with respectively falls of 14% and 12%. CONCLUSION: The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to remain the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukemia, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.