An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Costs of female reproduction in a conifer tree: a whole-tree level assessment

1. Costs of reproduction lie at the core of basic ecological and evolutionary theories, and their existence is commonly invoked to explain adaptive processes. Despite their sheer importance, empirical evidence for the existence and quantification of costs of reproduction in tree species comes mostly from correlational studies, while more comprehensive approaches remain missing. Manipulative experiments are a preferred approach to study cost of reproduction, as they allow controlling for otherwise inherent confounding factors like size or genetic background. 2. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment in a Pinus halepensis common garden, removing developing cones from a group of trees and comparing growth and reproduction after treatment with a control group. We also estimated phenotypic and genetic correlations between reproductive and vegetative traits. 3. Manipulated trees grew slightly more than control trees just after treatment, with just a transient, marginally non-significant difference. By contrast, larger differences were observed for the number of female cones initiated 1 year after treatment, with an increase of 70% more cones in the manipulated group. Phenotypic and genetic correlations showed that smaller trees invested a higher proportion of their resources in reproduction, compared with larger trees, which could be interpreted as an indirect evidence for costs of reproduction. 4. Synthesis. This research showed a high impact of current reproduction on reproductive potential, even when not significant on vegetative growth. This has strong implications for how we understand adaptive strategies in forest trees and should encourage further interest on their still poorly known reproductive life-history traits.

Within- and among-population impact of genetic erosion on adult fitness-related traits in the European tree frog Hyla arborea.

Assessing in wild populations how fitness is impacted by inbreeding and genetic drift is a major goal for conservation biology. An approach to measure the detrimental effects of inbreeding on fitness is to estimate correlations between molecular variation and phenotypic performances within and among populations. Our study investigated the effect of individual multilocus heterozygosity on body size, body condition and reproductive investment of males (that is, chorus attendance) and females (that is, clutch mass and egg size) in both small fragmented and large non-fragmented populations of European tree frog (Hyla arborea). Because adult size and/or condition and reproductive investment are usually related, genetic erosion may have detrimental effects directly on reproductive investment, and also on individual body size and condition that in turn may affect reproductive investment. We confirmed that the reproductive investment was highly size-dependent for both sexes. Larger females invested more in offspring production, and larger males attended the chorus in the pond more often. Our results did not provide evidence for a decline in body size, condition and reproductive effort with decreased multilocus heterozygosity both within and among populations. We showed that the lack of heterozygosity-fitness correlations within populations probably resulted from low inbreeding levels (inferior to ca. 20% full-sib mating rate), even in the small fragmented populations. The detrimental effects of fixation load were either low in adults or hidden by environmental variation among populations. These findings will be useful to design specific management actions to improve population persistence.

Plastid DNA variation in Prunus serotina var. serotina (Rosaceae), a North American tree invading Europe

Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a tree from North America, where it is often used for economical purposes, whereas it is widespread and invasive in Europe. Plastid DNA variation was Wrst investigated in both its native and invasive ranges using microsatellite loci and sequences of three intergenic spacers (trnT-trnL, trnD-trnT and trnS-trnG). This analysis was focused on P. serotina var. serotina, with the inclusion of samples of closely related taxa. Length variation at a microsatellite locus (ccmp5) and a few sequence polymorphisms were identi- Wed among P. serotina samples. Four new primer pairs were then designed to speciWcally amplify variable regions and a combination of Wve markers was Wnally proposed for phylogeographic studies in P. serotina. These loci allow identiWcation of six chlorotypes in P. serotina var. serotina, which may be particularly useful to depict the maternal origins of European invasive populations

Sex-chromosome evolution of Palearctic tree frogs in space and time

Sexual reproduction is nearly universal in eukaryotes and genetic determination of sex prevails among animals. The astonishing diversity of sex-determining systems and sex chromosomes is yet bewildering. Some taxonomic groups possess conserved and dimorphic sex chromosomes, involving a functional copy (e.g. mammals' X, birds' Z) and a degenerated copy (mammals' Y, birds' W), implying that sex- chromosomes are expected to decay. In contrast, others like amphibians, reptiles and fishes yet maintained undifferentiated sex chromosomes. Why such different evolutionary trajectories? In this thesis, we empirically test and characterize the main hypotheses proposed to prevent the genetic decay of sex chromosomes, namely occasional X-Y recombination and frequent sex-chromosome transitions, using the Palearctic radiation of Hyla tree frogs as a model system. We take a phylogeographic and phylogenetic approach to relate sex-chromosome recombination, differentiation, and transitions in a spatial and temporal framework. By reconstructing the recent evolutionary history of the widespread European tree frog H. arborea, we showed that sex chromosomes can recombine in males, preventing their differentiation, a situation that potentially evolves rapidly. At the scale of the entire radiation, X-Y recombination combines with frequent transitions to prevent sex-chromosome degeneration in Hyla: we traced several turnovers of sex-determining system within the last 10My. These rapid changes seem less random than usually assumed: we gathered evidences that one chromosome pair is a sex expert, carrying genes with key role in animal sex determination, and which probably specialized through frequent reuse as a sex chromosome in Hyla and other amphibians. Finally, we took advantage of secondary contact zones between closely-related Hyla lineages to evaluate the consequences of sex chromosome homomorphy on the genetics of speciation. In comparison with other systems, the evolution of sex chromosomes in Hyla emphasized the existence of consistent evolutionary patterns within the chaotic diversity of flexibility of cold-blooded vertebrates' sex-determining systems, and provides insights into the evolution of recombination. Beyond sex-chromosome evolution, this work also significantly contributed to speciation, phylogeography and applied conservation research. -- La reproduction sexuée est quasi-universelle chez les eucaryotes et le sexe est le plus souvent déterminé génétiquement au sein du règne animal. L'incroyable diversité des systèmes de reproduction et des chromosomes sexuels est particulièrement étonnante. Certains groupes taxonomiques possèdent des chromosomes sexuels dimorphiques et très conservés, avec une copie entièrement fonctionnelle (ex : le X des mammifères, le Z des oiseaux) et une copie dégénérée (ex : le Y des mammifères, le W des oiseaux), suggérant que les chromosomes sexuels sont voués à se détériorer. Cependant les chromosomes sexuels d'autres groupes tels que les amphibiens, les reptiles et les poissons sont pour la plupart indifférenciés. Comment expliquer des trajectoires évolutives si différentes? Au cours de cette thèse, nous avons étudié empiriquement les processus évolutifs pouvant maintenir les chromosomes sexuels intacts, à savoir la recombinaison X-Y occasionnel ainsi que les substitutions fréquentes de chromosomes sexuels, en utilisant les rainettes Paléarctiques du genre Hyla comme modèle d'étude. Nous avons adopté une approche phylogéographique et phylogénétique pour appréhender les événements de recombinaison, de différenciation et de transitions de chromosomes sexuels dans un contexte spatio-temporel. En retraçant l'histoire évolutive récente de la rainette verte H. arborea, nous avons mis en évidence que les chromosomes sexuels pouvaient recombiner chez les mâles, empêchant ainsi leur différenciation, et que ce processus avait le potentiel d'évoluer très rapidement. A l'échelle plus globale de la radiation, il apparait que les phénomènes de recombinaison X-Y soient également accompagnés de substitutions de chromosomes sexuels, et participent de concert au maintien de chromosomes sexuels intacts dans les populations: le système de détermination du sexe des rainettes a changé plusieurs fois au cours des 10 derniers millions d'années. Ces transitions fréquentes ne semblent pas aléatoires: nous avons identifié une paire de chromosomes qui présente des caractéristiques présageant d'une spécialisation dans le déterminisme du sexe (notamment car elle possède des gènes importants pour cette fonction), et qui a été réutilisée plusieurs fois comme tel chez les rainettes ainsi que d'autres amphibiens. Enfin, nous avons étudié l'hybridation entre différentes espèces dans leurs zones de contact, afin d'évaluer si l'absence de différenciation entre X et Y jouaient un rôle dans les processus génétiques de spéciation. Outre son intérêt pour la compréhension de l'évolution des chromosomes sexuels, ce travail contribue de manière significative à d'autres domaines de recherche tels que la spéciation, la phylogéographie, ainsi que la biologie de la conservation.

Correlated genetic effects on reproduction define a domestication syndrome in a forest tree.

Compared to natural selection, domestication implies a dramatic change in traits linked to fitness. A number of traits conferring fitness in the wild might be detrimental under domestication, and domesticated species typically differ from their ancestors in a set of traits known as the domestication syndrome. Specifically, trade-offs between growth and reproduction are well established across the tree of life. According to allocation theory, selection for growth rate is expected to indirectly alter life-history reproductive traits, diverting resources from reproduction to growth. Here we tested this hypothesis by examining the genetic change and correlated responses of reproductive traits as a result of selection for timber yield in the tree Pinus pinaster. Phenotypic selection was carried out in a natural population, and progenies from selected trees were compared with those of control trees in a common garden experiment. According to expectations, we detected a genetic change in important life-history traits due to selection. Specifically, threshold sizes for reproduction were much higher and reproductive investment relative to size significantly lower in the selected progenies just after a single artificial selection event. Our study helps to define the domestication syndrome in exploited forest trees and shows that changes affecting developmental pathways are relevant in domestication processes of long-lived plants.