Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

Evolutionary history and its relevance in understanding and conserving southern African biodiversity

Abstract : Understanding how biodiversity is distributed is central to any conservation effort and has traditionally been based on niche modeling and the causal relationship between spatial distribution of organisms and their environment. More recently, the study of species' evolutionary history and relatedness has permeated the fields of ecology and conservation and, coupled with spatial predictions, provides useful insights to the origin of current biodiversity patterns, community structuring and potential vulnerability to extinction. This thesis explores several key ecological questions by combining the fields of niche modeling and phylogenetics and using important components of southern African biodiversity. The aims of this thesis are to provide comparisons of biodiversity measures, to assess how climate change will affect evolutionary history loss, to ask whether there is a clear link between evolutionary history and morphology and to investigate the potential role of relatedness in macro-climatic niche structuring. The first part of my thesis provides a fine scale comparison and spatial overlap quantification of species richness and phylogenetic diversity predictions for one of the most diverse plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), the Proteaceae. In several of the measures used, patterns do not match sufficiently to argue that species relatedness information is implicit in species richness patterns. The second part of my thesis predicts how climate change may affect threat and potential extinction of southern African animal and plant taxa. I compare present and future niche models to assess whether predicted species extinction will result in higher or lower V phylogenetic diversity survival than what would be experienced under random extinction processes. l find that predicted extinction will result in lower phylogenetic diversity survival but that this non-random pattern will be detected only after a substantial proportion of the taxa in each group has been lost. The third part of my thesis explores the relationship between phylogenetic and morphological distance in southern African bats to assess whether long evolutionary histories correspond to equally high levels of morphological variation, as predicted by a neutral model of character evolution. I find no such evidence; on the contrary weak negative trends are detected for this group, as well as in simulations of both neutral and convergent character evolution. Finally, I ask whether spatial and climatic niche occupancy in southern African bats is influenced by evolutionary history or not. I relate divergence time between species pairs to climatic niche and range overlap and find no evidence for clear phylogenetic structuring. I argue that this may be due to particularly high levels of micro-niche partitioning. Résumé : Comprendre la distribution de la biodiversité représente un enjeu majeur pour la conservation de la nature. Les analyses se basent le plus souvent sur la modélisation de la niche écologique à travers l'étude des relations causales entre la distribution spatiale des organismes et leur environnement. Depuis peu, l'étude de l'histoire évolutive des organismes est également utilisée dans les domaines de l'écologie et de la conservation. En combinaison avec la modélisation de la distribution spatiale des organismes, cette nouvelle approche fournit des informations pertinentes pour mieux comprendre l'origine des patterns de biodiversité actuels, de la structuration des communautés et des risques potentiels d'extinction. Cette thèse explore plusieurs grandes questions écologiques, en combinant les domaines de la modélisation de la niche et de la phylogénétique. Elle s'applique aux composants importants de la biodiversité de l'Afrique australe. Les objectifs de cette thèse ont été l) de comparer différentes mesures de la biodiversité, 2) d'évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques à venir sur la perte de diversité phylogénétique, 3) d'analyser le lien potentiel entre diversité phylogénétique et diversité morphologique et 4) d'étudier le rôle potentiel de la phylogénie sur la structuration des niches macro-climatiques des espèces. La première partie de cette thèse fournit une comparaison spatiale, et une quantification du chevauchement, entre des prévisions de richesse spécifique et des prédictions de la diversité phylogénétique pour l'une des familles de plantes les plus riches en espèces de la région floristique du Cap (CFR), les Proteaceae. Il résulte des analyses que plusieurs mesures de diversité phylogénétique montraient des distributions spatiales différentes de la richesse spécifique, habituellement utilisée pour édicter des mesures de conservation. La deuxième partie évalue les effets potentiels des changements climatiques attendus sur les taux d'extinction d'animaux et de plantes de l'Afrique australe. Pour cela, des modèles de distribution d'espèces actuels et futurs ont permis de déterminer si l'extinction des espèces se traduira par une plus grande ou une plus petite perte de diversité phylogénétique en comparaison à un processus d'extinction aléatoire. Les résultats ont effectivement montré que l'extinction des espèces liées aux changements climatiques pourrait entraîner une perte plus grande de diversité phylogénétique. Cependant, cette perte ne serait plus grande que celle liée à un processus d'extinction aléatoire qu'à partir d'une forte perte de taxons dans chaque groupe. La troisième partie de cette thèse explore la relation entre distances phylogénétiques et morphologiques d'espèces de chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. ll s'agit plus précisément de déterminer si une longue histoire évolutive correspond également à des variations morphologiques plus grandes dans ce groupe. Cette relation est en fait prédite par un modèle neutre d'évolution de caractères. Aucune évidence de cette relation n'a émergé des analyses. Au contraire, des tendances négatives ont été détectées, ce qui représenterait la conséquence d'une évolution convergente entre clades et des niveaux élevés de cloisonnement pour chaque clade. Enfin, la dernière partie présente une étude sur la répartition de la niche climatique des chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. Dans cette étude je rapporte temps de divergence évolutive (ou deux espèces ont divergé depuis un ancêtre commun) au niveau de chevauchement de leurs niches climatiques. Les résultats n'ont pas pu mettre en évidence de lien entre ces deux paramètres. Les résultats soutiennent plutôt l'idée que cela pourrait être I dû à des niveaux particulièrement élevés de répartition de la niche à échelle fine.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Pathogen-induced hatching and population-specific life-history response to water-borne cues in brown trout (Salmo trutta)

Hatching is an important niche shift, and embryos in a wide range of taxa can either accelerate or delay this life-history switch in order to avoid stage-specific risks. Such behavior can occur in response to stress itself and to chemical cues that allow anticipation of stress. We studied the genetic organization of this phenotypic plasticity and tested whether there are differences among populations and across environments in order to learn more about the evolutionary potential of stress-induced hatching. As a study species, we chose the brown trout (Salmo trutta; Salmonidae). Gametes were collected from five natural populations (within one river network) and used for full-factorial in vitro fertilizations. The resulting embryos were either directly infected with Pseudomonas fluorescens or were exposed to waterborne cues from P. fluorescens-infected conspecifics. We found that direct inoculation with P. fluorescens increased embryonic mortality and induced hatching in all host populations. Exposure to waterborne cues revealed population-specific responses. We found significant additive genetic variation for hatching time, and genetic variation in trait plasticity. In conclusion, hatching is induced in response to infection and can be affected by waterborne cues of infection, but populations and families differ in their reaction to the latter.

Shifts in species and phylogenetic diversity between sapling and tree communities indicate negative density dependence in a lowland rain forest

1. As trees in a given cohort progress through ontogeny, many individuals die. This risk of mortality is unevenly distributed across species because of many processes such as habitat filtering, interspecific competition and negative density dependence. Here, we predict and test the patterns that such ecological processes should inscribe on both species and phylogenetic diversity as plants recruit from saplings to the canopy. 2. We compared species and phylogenetic diversity of sapling and tree communities at two sites in French Guiana. We surveyed 2084 adult trees in four 1-ha tree plots and 943 saplings in sixteen 16-m2 subplots nested within the tree plots. Species diversity was measured using Fisher's alpha (species richness) and Simpson's index (species evenness). Phylogenetic diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (phylogenetic richness) and Rao's quadratic entropy index (phylogenetic evenness). The phylogenetic diversity indices were inferred using four phylogenetic hypotheses: two based on rbcLa plastid DNA sequences obtained from the inventoried individuals with different branch lengths, a global phylogeny available from the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, and a combination of both. 3. Taxonomic identification of the saplings was performed by combining morphological and DNA barcoding techniques using three plant DNA barcodes (psbA-trnH, rpoC1 and rbcLa). DNA barcoding enabled us to increase species assignment and to assign unidentified saplings to molecular operational taxonomic units. 4. Species richness was similar between saplings and trees, but in about half of our comparisons, species evenness was higher in trees than in saplings. This suggests that negative density dependence plays an important role during the sapling-to-tree transition. 5. Phylogenetic richness increased between saplings and trees in about half of the comparisons. Phylogenetic evenness increased significantly between saplings and trees in a few cases (4 out of 16) and only with the most resolved phylogeny. These results suggest that negative density dependence operates largely independently of the phylogenetic structure of communities. 6. Synthesis. By contrasting species richness and evenness across size classes, we suggest that negative density dependence drives shifts in composition during the sapling-to-tree transition. In addition, we found little evidence for a change in phylogenetic diversity across age classes, suggesting that the observed patterns are not phylogenetically constrained.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Effects of phylogenetic signal on ancestral state reconstruction.

One of the standard tools used to understand the processes shaping trait evolution along the branches of a phylogenetic tree is the reconstruction of ancestral states (Pagel 1999). The purpose is to estimate the values of the trait of interest for every internal node of a phylogenetic tree based on the trait values of the extant species, a topology and, depending on the method used, branch lengths and a model of trait evolution (Ronquist 2004). This approach has been used in a variety of contexts such as biogeography (e.g., Nepokroeff et al. 2003, Blackburn 2008), ecological niche evolution (e.g., Smith and Beaulieu 2009, Evans et al. 2009) and metabolic pathway evolution (e.g., Gabaldón 2003, Christin et al. 2008). Investigations of the factors affecting the accuracy with which ancestral character states can be reconstructed have focused in particular on the choice of statistical framework (Ekman et al. 2008) and the selection of the best model of evolution (Cunningham et al. 1998, Mooers et al. 1999). However, other potential biases affecting these methods, such as the effect of tree shape (Mooers 2004), taxon sampling (Salisbury and Kim 2001) as well as reconstructing traits involved in species diversification (Goldberg and Igić 2008), have also received specific attention. Most of these studies conclude that ancestral character states reconstruction is still not perfect, and that further developments are necessary to improve its accuracy (e.g., Christin et al. 2010). Here, we examine how different estimations of branch lengths affect the accuracy of ancestral character state reconstruction. In particular, we tested the effect of using time-calibrated versus molecular branch lengths and provide guidelines to select the most appropriate branch lengths to reconstruct the ancestral state of a trait.

A tumor-specific cellular environment at the brain invasion border of adamantinomatous craniopharyngiomas.

Craniopharyngiomas (CP) are benign epithelial tumors of the sellar region and can be clinicopathologically distinguished into adamantinomatous (adaCP) and papillary (papCP) variants. Both subtypes are classified according to the World Health Organization grade I, but their irregular digitate brain infiltration makes any complete surgical resection difficult to obtain. Herein, we characterized the cellular interface between the tumor and the surrounding brain tissue in 48 CP (41 adaCP and seven papCP) compared to non-neuroepithelial tumors, i.e., 12 cavernous hemangiomas, 10 meningiomas, and 14 metastases using antibodies directed against glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP), vimentin, nestin, microtubule-associated protein 2 (MAP2) splice variants, and tenascin-C. We identified a specific cell population characterized by the coexpression of nestin, MAP2, and GFAP within the invasion niche of the adamantinomatous subtype. This was especially prominent along the finger-like protrusions. A similar population of presumably astroglial precursors was not visible in other lesions under study, which characterize them as distinct histopathological feature of adaCP. Furthermore, the outer tumor cell layer of adaCP showed a distinct expression of MAP2, a novel finding helpful in the differential diagnosis of epithelial tumors in the sellar region. Our data support the hypothesis that adaCP, unlike other non-neuroepithelial tumors of the central nervous system, create a tumor-specific cellular environment at the tumor-brain junction. Whether this facilitates the characteristic infiltrative growth pattern or is the consequence of an activated Wnt signaling pathway, detectable in 90% of these tumors, will need further consideration.

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions

Abiotic factors such as climate and soil determine the species fundamental niche, which is further constrained by biotic interactions such as interspecific competition. To parameterize this realized niche, species distribution models (SDMs) most often relate species occurrence data to abiotic variables, but few SDM studies include biotic predictors to help explain species distributions. Therefore, most predictions of species distributions under future climates assume implicitly that biotic interactions remain constant or exert only minor influence on large-scale spatial distributions, which is also largely expected for species with high competitive ability. We examined the extent to which variance explained by SDMs can be attributed to abiotic or biotic predictors and how this depends on species traits. We fit generalized linear models for 11 common tree species in Switzerland using three different sets of predictor variables: biotic, abiotic, and the combination of both sets. We used variance partitioning to estimate the proportion of the variance explained by biotic and abiotic predictors, jointly and independently. Inclusion of biotic predictors improved the SDMs substantially. The joint contribution of biotic and abiotic predictors to explained deviance was relatively small (similar to 9%) compared to the contribution of each predictor set individually (similar to 20% each), indicating that the additional information on the realized niche brought by adding other species as predictors was largely independent of the abiotic (topo-climatic) predictors. The influence of biotic predictors was relatively high for species preferably growing under low disturbance and low abiotic stress, species with long seed dispersal distances, species with high shade tolerance as juveniles and adults, and species that occur frequently and are dominant across the landscape. The influence of biotic variables on SDM performance indicates that community composition and other local biotic factors or abiotic processes not included in the abiotic predictors strongly influence prediction of species distributions. Improved prediction of species' potential distributions in future climates and communities may assist strategies for sustainable forest management.

Primetime for antiangiogenic therapy.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review the current experience with angiogenesis inhibitors in the treatment of gliomas. RECENT FINDINGS: Antiangiogenic therapy has recently reached the clinic with the approval of bevacizumab for recurrent glioblastomas. A number of promising antiangiogenic and vasculature-modifying agents are under investigation for newly diagnosed and recurrent malignant gliomas. A recurrence under ongoing or after antiangiogenic therapy is often characterized by a more aggressive and, in particular, invasive phenotype. SUMMARY: Despite impressively high radiological response rates in patients with recurrent malignant glioma, the duration of response is usually short-lived, and the observed effect to a large extent may be due to normalization of the disrupted blood-brain barrier and less due to a direct antitumor effect. Overall survival remains poor. Induction of invasive phenotypes and escape with proangiogenic alternative pathways are contributing to resistance. Investigation of combination regimes targeting several pathways will determine the possibilities to overcome the resistance to antiangiogenic therapy in malignant gliomas. This article summarizes the results of recent clinical trials in this field, points towards mechanisms of resistance arising under angiogenesis inhibition and discusses the challenges for the future.

Oligopotent stem cells are distributed throughout the mammalian ocular surface.

The integrity of the cornea, the most anterior part of the eye, is indispensable for vision. Forty-five million individuals worldwide are bilaterally blind and another 135 million have severely impaired vision in both eyes because of loss of corneal transparency; treatments range from local medications to corneal transplants, and more recently to stem cell therapy. The corneal epithelium is a squamous epithelium that is constantly renewing, with a vertical turnover of 7 to 14 days in many mammals. Identification of slow cycling cells (label-retaining cells) in the limbus of the mouse has led to the notion that the limbus is the niche for the stem cells responsible for the long-term renewal of the cornea; hence, the corneal epithelium is supposedly renewed by cells generated at and migrating from the limbus, in marked opposition to other squamous epithelia in which each resident stem cell has in charge a limited area of epithelium. Here we show that the corneal epithelium of the mouse can be serially transplanted, is self-maintained and contains oligopotent stem cells with the capacity to generate goblet cells if provided with a conjunctival environment. Furthermore, the entire ocular surface of the pig, including the cornea, contains oligopotent stem cells (holoclones) with the capacity to generate individual colonies of corneal and conjunctival cells. Therefore, the limbus is not the only niche for corneal stem cells and corneal renewal is not different from other squamous epithelia. We propose a model that unifies our observations with the literature and explains why the limbal region is enriched in stem cells.

Amoeba/amoebal symbiont genetic transfers: lessons from giant virus neighbours.

Free-living amoebae serve as hosts for a variety of amoebae-resisting microorganisms, including giant viruses and certain bacteria. The latter include symbiotic bacteria as well as bacteria exhibiting a pathogenic phenotype towards amoebae. Amoebae-resisting bacteria have been shown to be widespread in water and to use the amoebae as a reservoir, a replication niche, a protective armour as well as a training ground to select virulence traits allowing survival in the face of microbicidal effects of macrophages, the first line of defense against invading pathogens. More importantly, amoebae play a significant role as a melting pot for genetic exchanges. These ecological and evolutionary roles of amoebae might also be at play for giant viruses and knowledge derived from the study of amoebae-resisting bacteria is useful for the study and understanding of interactions between amoebae and giant viruses. This is especially important since some genes have spread in all domains of life and the exponential availability of eukaryotic genomes and metagenomic sequences will allow researchers to explore these genetic exchanges in a more comprehensive way, thus completely changing our perception of the evolutionary history of organisms. Thus, a large part of this review is dedicated to report current known gene exchanges between the different amoebae-resisting organisms and between amoebae and the internalized bacteria.

Parachlamydia acanthamoebae, an emerging agent of pneumonia.

Parachlamydia acanthamoebae is a Chlamydia-like organism that easily grows within Acanthamoeba spp. Thus, it probably uses these widespread free-living amoebae as a replicative niche, a cosmopolite aquatic reservoir and a vector. A potential role of P. acanthamoebae as an agent of lower respiratory tract infection was initially suggested by its isolation within an Acanthamoeba sp. recovered from the water of a humidifier during the investigation of an outbreak of fever. Additional serological and molecular-based investigations further supported its pathogenic role, mainly in bronchiolitis, bronchitis, aspiration pneumonia and community-acquired pneumonia. P. acanthamoebae was shown to survive and replicate within human macrophages, lung fibroblasts and pneumocytes. Moreover, this strict intracellular bacterium also causes severe pneumonia in experimentally infected mice, thus fulfilling the third and fourth Koch criteria for a pathogenic role. Consequently, new tools have been developed for the diagnosis of parachlamydial infections. It will be important to routinely search for this emerging agent of pneumonia, as P. acanthamoebae is apparently resistant to quinolones, which are antibiotics often used for the empirical treatment of atypical pneumonia. Other Chlamydia-related bacteria, including Protochlamydia naegleriophila, Simkania negevensis and Waddlia chondrophila, might also cause lung infections. Moreover, several additional novel chlamydiae, e.g. Criblamydia sequanensis and Rhabdochlamydia crassificans, have been discovered and are now being investigated for their human pathogenicity.

Loss of interactions with ants under cold climate in a regional myrmecophilous butterfly fauna

Aim Specialized mutualistic clades may revert and thus increase their autonomy and generalist characteristics. However, our understanding of the drivers that trigger reductions in mutualistic traits and of the consequences for the tolerance of these species to various environmental conditions remains limited. This study investigates the relationship between the environmental niche and the degree of myrmecophily (i.e. the ability to interact with ants) among members of the Lycaenidae. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We measured the tolerance of Lycaenidae species to low temperatures by comparing observations from a random stratified field sampling with climatic maps. We then compared the species-specific degree of myrmecophily with the species range limits at colder temperatures while controlling for phylogenetic dependence. We further evaluated whether the community-averaged degree of myrmecophily increases with temperature, as would be expected in the case of environmental filters acting on myrmecophilous species. Results Twenty-nine Lycaenidae species were found during sampling. Ancestral state reconstruction indicated that the 24 species of Polyommatinae displayed both strong myrmecophily and secondary loss of mutualism; these species were used in the subsequent statistical analyses. Species with a higher degree of ant interaction were, on average, more likely to inhabit warmer sites. Species inhabiting the coldest environments displayed little or no interaction with ants. Main conclusions Colder climates at high elevations filter out species with a high degree of myrmecophily and may have been the direct evolutionary force that promoted the loss of mutualism. A larger taxon sampling across the Holarctic may help to distinguish between the ecological and evolutionary effects of climate.