Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Sequence determinants of a microtubule tip localization signal (MtLS).

Microtubule plus-end-tracking proteins (+TIPs) specifically localize to the growing plus-ends of microtubules to regulate microtubule dynamics and functions. A large group of +TIPs contain a short linear motif, SXIP, which is essential for them to bind to end-binding proteins (EBs) and target microtubule ends. The SXIP sequence site thus acts as a widespread microtubule tip localization signal (MtLS). Here we have analyzed the sequence-function relationship of a canonical MtLS. Using synthetic peptide arrays on membrane supports, we identified the residue preferences at each amino acid position of the SXIP motif and its surrounding sequence with respect to EB binding. We further developed an assay based on fluorescence polarization to assess the mechanism of the EB-SXIP interaction and to correlate EB binding and microtubule tip tracking of MtLS sequences from different +TIPs. Finally, we investigated the role of phosphorylation in regulating the EB-SXIP interaction. Together, our results define the sequence determinants of a canonical MtLS and provide the experimental data for bioinformatics approaches to carry out genome-wide predictions of novel +TIPs in multiple organisms.

Latissimus dorsi muscle-flap over Gore-Tex patch for coverage of large thoracic defects in paediatric Ewing sarcoma.

Primary rib involvement accounts for 16% of paediatric Ewing sarcoma (ES). Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and surgical tumor resection may leave large thoracic wall defects requiring complex reconstruction in a growing individual. We report our experience in three children aged 3, 10, and 12 years, in whom single-stage resection and reconstruction were performed using a Gore-Tex Dualmesh patch, covered by a latissimus dorsi rotation flap harvested in continuity with the thoracolumbar fascia. The youngest patient also had a vertical expandable prosthetic titanium rib (VEPTR) anchored to help prevent subsequent scoliosis throughout growth.

Stable isotope ecology of Miocene large mammals from Sandelzhausen, southern Germany

The carbon, oxygen, and strontium isotope composition of enamel from teeth of large Miocene herbivorous mammals from Sandelzhausen (MN5, late Early/early Middle Miocene) in the North Alpine foreland basin, were analyzed to infer diet and habitat. The mean enamel delta(13)C value of -11.4 +/- 1.0% (n = 53) for the nine taxa analyzed (including proboscideans, cervids, suids, chalicotheres, equids, rhinocerotids) indicates a pure C(3) plant diet for all mammals. (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratios of similar to 0.710 higher than those from teeth of the western Molasse Basin (0.708-0.709) seem to indicate preferential feeding of the mammals in the northeastern Molasse Basin. The sympatric herbivores have different mean delta(13)C and delta(18)O values which support diet partitioning and/or use of different habitats within a C(3) plant ecosystem. Especially the three sympatric rhinoceroses Plesiaceratherium fahlbuschi, Lartetotherium sansaniense, and Prosantorhinus germanicus show clear partitioning of plants and/or habitats. The palaeomerycid Germanomeryx fahlbuschi was a canopy folivore in moderately closed environments whereas Metaschizotherium bavaricum (Chalicotheriidae) and P. germanicus (Rhinocerotidae) were browsers in more closed forest environments. The horse Anchitherium aurelianense was probably a more generalized feeder than assumed from its dental morphology. The forest hog Hyotherium soemmeringi has the highest delta(13)C and lowest delta(18)O value of all analyzed taxa, possibly related to a frugivorous diet. Most taxa were water-dependent browsers that record meteoric water delta(18)O values of about -5.6 +/- 0.7% Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW). Using a modern-day mean annual air temperature (MAT)-delta(18)OH(2)O relation a MAT of 19.3 +/- 1.5 degrees C can be reconstructed for Sandelzhausen. A Gomphotherium subtapiroideum tusk serially sampled for delta(18)O values does not record a clear pattern of seasonality. Thus most taxa were C(3) browsers in a forested and humid floodplain environment in the Molasse Basin, which experienced a warm-temperate to subtropical climate and possibly low seasonality.

Large-scale evolutionary trends of Acrochordiceratidae Arthaber, 1911 (Ammonoidea, Middle Triassic) and Cope's rule

Directed evolution of life through millions of years, such as increasing adult body size, is one of the most intriguing patterns displayed by fossil lineages. Processes and causes of such evolutionary trends are still poorly understood. Ammonoids (externally shelled marine cephalopods) are well known to have experienced repetitive morphological evolutionary trends of their adult size, shell geometry and ornamentation. This study analyses the evolutionary trends of the family Acrochordiceratidae Arthaber, 1911 from the Early to Middle Triassic (251228 Ma). Exceptionally large and bed-rock-controlled collections of this ammonoid family were obtained from strata of Anisian age (Middle Triassic) in north-west Nevada and north-east British Columbia. They enable quantitative and statistical analyses of its morphological evolutionary trends. This study demonstrates that the monophyletic clade Acrochordiceratidae underwent the classical evolute to involute evolutionary trend (i.e. increasing coiling of the shell), an increase in its shell adult size (conch diameter) and an increase in the indentation of its shell suture shape. These evolutionary trends are statistically robust and seem more or less gradual. Furthermore, they are nonrandom with the sustained shift in the mean, the minimum and the maximum of studied shell characters. These results can be classically interpreted as being constrained by the persistence and common selection pressure on this mostly anagenetic lineage characterized by relatively moderate evolutionary rates. Increasing involution of ammonites is traditionally interpreted by increasing adaptation mostly in terms of improved hydrodynamics. However, this trend in ammonoid geometry can also be explained as a case of Copes rule (increasing adult body size) instead of functional explanation of coiling, because both shell diameter and shell involution are two possible paths for ammonoids to accommodate size increase.

Human large granular lymphocytes contain an esterase activity usually considered as specific for the myeloid series.

A cytochemical marker such as alpha-naphthyl acetate esterase (ANAE) has been found useful for the morphological identification of the subset of T lymphocytes having receptors for Fcμ (TM cells). ANAE reaction on TM cells gives a typical pattern of one to four positive spots, whereas this pattern is not found on T cells with receptors for Fcγ (TG cells). ANAE is abundant in monocytes but not detectable in granulocytes. Herein another type of esterase activity, naphthol-AS-D chloroacetate esterase (NCAE), is described; it is known to be abundant in granulocytes and was found to give a specific pattern of reactivity with the subpopulation of large granular lymphocytes (LGL). This pattern of fine granular staining was observed not only on LGL present in the TG cell subpopulation but also in LGL present in the non-T, non-B cells. Fractions of peripheral blood mononuclear cells which were ènriched up to 80% in LGL by Percoll discontinuous density gradient gave a similar percentage of specific NCAE pattern. In addition, among the different fractions from Percoll gradient, there was a good correlation (r = 0.94) between the number of NCAE-positive cells and the natural killer activity against the natural killer susceptible K562 target cells. It will be important to determine whether or not this enzymatic activity plays a role in the cytotoxic activities of LGL.

Assignment strategies for large proteins by magic-angle spinning NMR: the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA.

We present strategies for chemical shift assignments of large proteins by magic-angle spinning solid-state NMR, using the 21-kDa disulfide-bond-forming enzyme DsbA as prototype. Previous studies have demonstrated that complete de novo assignments are possible for proteins up to approximately 17 kDa, and partial assignments have been performed for several larger proteins. Here we show that combinations of isotopic labeling strategies, high field correlation spectroscopy, and three-dimensional (3D) and four-dimensional (4D) backbone correlation experiments yield highly confident assignments for more than 90% of backbone resonances in DsbA. Samples were prepared as nanocrystalline precipitates by a dialysis procedure, resulting in heterogeneous linewidths below 0.2 ppm. Thus, high magnetic fields, selective decoupling pulse sequences, and sparse isotopic labeling all improved spectral resolution. Assignments by amino acid type were facilitated by particular combinations of pulse sequences and isotopic labeling; for example, transferred echo double resonance experiments enhanced sensitivity for Pro and Gly residues; [2-(13)C]glycerol labeling clarified Val, Ile, and Leu assignments; in-phase anti-phase correlation spectra enabled interpretation of otherwise crowded Glx/Asx side-chain regions; and 3D NCACX experiments on [2-(13)C]glycerol samples provided unique sets of aromatic (Phe, Tyr, and Trp) correlations. Together with high-sensitivity CANCOCA 4D experiments and CANCOCX 3D experiments, unambiguous backbone walks could be performed throughout the majority of the sequence. At 189 residues, DsbA represents the largest monomeric unit for which essentially complete solid-state NMR assignments have so far been achieved. These results will facilitate studies of nanocrystalline DsbA structure and dynamics and will enable analysis of its 41-kDa covalent complex with the membrane protein DsbB, for which we demonstrate a high-resolution two-dimensional (13)C-(13)C spectrum.

Myocardial infarct size and mortality depend on the time of day-a large multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Different studies have shown circadian variation of ischemic burden among patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI), but with controversial results. The aim of this study was to analyze circadian variation of myocardial infarction size and in-hospital mortality in a large multicenter registry. METHODS: This retrospective, registry-based study was based on data from AMIS Plus, a large multicenter Swiss registry of patients who suffered myocardial infarction between 1999 and 2013. Peak creatine kinase (CK) was used as a proxy measure for myocardial infarction size. Associations between peak CK, in-hospital mortality, and the time of day at symptom onset were modelled using polynomial-harmonic regression methods. RESULTS: 6,223 STEMI patients were admitted to 82 acute-care hospitals in Switzerland and treated with primary angioplasty within six hours of symptom onset. Only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with peak CK (p = 0.0001). The maximum average peak CK value (2,315 U/L) was for patients with symptom onset at 23:00, whereas the minimum average (2,017 U/L) was for onset at 11:00. The amplitude of variation was 298 U/L. In addition, no correlation was observed between ischemic time and circadian peak CK variation. Of the 6,223 patients, 223 (3.58%) died during index hospitalization. Remarkably, only the 24-hour harmonic was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The risk of death from STEMI was highest for patients with symptom onset at 00:00 and lowest for those with onset at 12:00. DISCUSSION: As a part of this first large study of STEMI patients treated with primary angioplasty in Swiss hospitals, investigations confirmed a circadian pattern to both peak CK and in-hospital mortality which were independent of total ischemic time. Accordingly, this study proposes that symptom onset time be incorporated as a prognosis factor in patients with myocardial infarction.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade > or =III vs <III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p<0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (> or =4 mm vs <4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p<0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (> or =60 vs <60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (> or =5 years vs <5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

16q24.1 microdeletion in a premature newborn: Usefulness of array-based comparative genomic hybridization in persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn.

OBJECTIVE:: Report of a 16q24.1 deletion in a premature newborn, demonstrating the usefulness of array-based comparative genomic hybridization in persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn and multiple congenital malformations. DESIGN:: Descriptive case report. SETTING:: Genetic department and neonatal intensive care unit of a tertiary care children's hospital. INTERVENTIONS:: None. PATIENT:: We report the case of a preterm male infant, born at 26 wks of gestation. A cardiac malformation and bilateral hydronephrosis were diagnosed at 19 wks of gestation. Karyotype analysis was normal, and a 22q11.2 microdeletion was excluded by fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis. A cesarean section was performed due to fetal distress. The patient developed persistent pulmonary hypertension unresponsive to mechanical ventilation and nitric oxide treatment and expired at 16 hrs of life. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: An autopsy revealed partial atrioventricular canal malformation and showed bilateral dilation of the renal pelvocaliceal system with bilateral ureteral stenosis and annular pancreas. Array-based comparative genomic hybridization analysis (Agilent oligoNT 44K, Agilent Technologies, Santa Clara, CA) showed an interstitial microdeletion encompassing the forkhead box gene cluster in 16q24.1. Review of the pulmonary microscopic examination showed the characteristic features of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins. Some features were less prominent due to the gestational age. CONCLUSIONS:: Our review of the literature shows that alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins is rare but probably underreported. Prematurity is not a usual presentation, and histologic features are difficult to interpret. In our case, array-based comparative genomic hybridization revealed a 16q24.1 deletion, leading to the final diagnosis of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins. It emphasizes the usefulness of array-based comparative genomic hybridization analysis as a diagnostic tool with implications for both prognosis and management decisions in newborns with refractory persistent pulmonary hypertension and multiple congenital malformations.

An European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer phase I study of lapatinib and docetaxel as neoadjuvant treatment for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) positive locally-advanced/inflammatory or large operable breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lapatinib is an effective anti-HER2 therapy in advanced breast cancer and docetaxel is one of the most active agents in breast cancer. Combining these agents in pre-treated patients with metastatic disease had previously proved challenging, so the primary objective of this study aimed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in treatment-naive patients, by identifying acute dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) during cycle 1 in the first part of a phases 1-2 neoadjuvant European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with large operable or locally-advanced HER2 positive breast cancer were treated with continuous lapatinib, and docetaxel every 21days for 4 cycles. Dose levels (DLs) were: 1000/75, 1250/75, 1000/85, 1250/85, 1000/100 and 1250/100 (mg/day)/(mg/m(2)). RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were included. Two DLTs occurred at dose level 5 (1000/100); one grade 4 neutropenia ⩾7days and one febrile neutropenia. A further 3 patients were therefore treated at the same dose with prophylactic granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), and 3 patients at dose level 6. No further DLTs were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our recommended dose for phase II is lapatinib 1000mg/day and docetaxel 100mg/m(2) with G-CSF in HER2 positive non-metastatic breast cancer. The dose of lapatinib should have been 1250mg/day but we were mindful of the high rate of treatment discontinuation in GeparQuinto with lapatinib 1250mg/day combined with docetaxel. No grade 3-4 diarrhoea was observed. Pharmacodynamics analysis suggests that concomitant medications altering P-glycoprotein activity (in addition to lapatinib) can modify toxicity, including non-haematological toxicities. This needs verification in larger trials, where it may contribute to understanding the sources of variability in clinical toxicity and treatment discontinuation.