Ambient seismic noise monitoring of a clay landslide: Toward failure prediction

Given that clay-rich landslides may become mobilized, leading to rapid mass movements (earthflows and debris flows), they pose critical problems in risk management worldwide. The most widely proposed mechanism leading to such flow-like movements is the increase in water pore pressure in the sliding mass, generating partial or complete liquefaction. This solid-to-liquid transition results in a dramatic reduction of mechanical rigidity in the liquefied zones, which could be detected by monitoring shear wave velocity variations. With this purpose in mind, the ambient seismic noise correlation technique has been applied to measure the variation in the seismic surface wave velocity in the Pont Bourquin landslide (Swiss Alps). This small but active composite earthslide-earthflow was equipped with continuously recording seismic sensors during spring and summer 2010. An earthslide of a few thousand cubic meters was triggered in mid-August 2010, after a rainy period. This article shows that the seismic velocity of the sliding material, measured from daily noise correlograms, decreased continuously and rapidly for several days prior to the catastrophic event. From a spectral analysis of the velocity decrease, it was possible to determine the location of the change at the base of the sliding layer. These results demonstrate that ambient seismic noise can be used to detect rigidity variations before failure and could potentially be used to predict landslides.

Resting heart rate and the risk of heart failure in healthy adults: the rotterdam study.

Background- An elevated resting heart rate is associated with rehospitalization for heart failure and is a modifiable risk factor in heart failure patients. We aimed to examine the association between resting heart rate and incident heart failure in a population-based cohort study of healthy adults without pre-existing overt heart disease. Methods and Results- We studied 4768 men and women aged ≥55 years from the population-based Rotterdam Study. We excluded participants with prevalent heart failure, coronary heart disease, pacemaker, atrial fibrillation, atrioventricular block, and those using β-blockers or calcium channel blockers. We used extended Cox models allowing for time-dependent variation of resting heart rate along follow-up. During a median of 14.6 years of follow-up, 656 participants developed heart failure. The risk of heart failure was higher in men with higher resting heart rate. For each increment of 10 beats per minute, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios in men were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28; P=0.005) in the time-fixed heart rate model and 1.13 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25; P=0.017) in the time-dependent heart rate model. The association could not be demonstrated in women (P for interaction=0.004). Censoring participants for incident coronary heart disease or using time-dependent models to account for the use of β-blockers or calcium channel blockers during follow-up did not alter the results. Conclusions- Baseline or persistent higher resting heart rate is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure in healthy older men in the general population.

PA21, a New Iron-Based Noncalcium Phosphate Binder, Prevents Vascular Calcification in Chronic Renal Failure Rats.

Chronic renal failure (CRF) is associated with the development of secondary hyperparathyroidism and vascular calcifications. We evaluated the efficacy of PA21, a new iron-based noncalcium phosphate binder, in controlling phosphocalcic disorders and preventing vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Rats with adenine-diet-induced CRF were randomized to receive either PA21 0.5, 1.5, or 5% or CaCO3 3% in the diet for 4 weeks, and were compared with uremic and nonuremic control groups. After 4 weeks of phosphate binder treatment, serum calcium, creatinine, and body weight were similar between all CRF groups. Serum phosphorus was reduced with CaCO3 3% (2.06 mM; P ≤ 0.001), PA21 1.5% (2.29 mM; P < 0.05), and PA21 5% (2.21 mM; P ≤ 0.001) versus CRF controls (2.91 mM). Intact parathyroid hormone was strongly reduced in the PA21 5% and CaCO3 3% CRF groups to a similar extent (1138 and 1299 pg/ml, respectively) versus CRF controls (3261 pg/ml; both P ≤ 0.001). A lower serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was observed in the PA21 5%, compared with CaCO3 3% and CRF, control groups. PA21 5% CRF rats had a lower vascular calcification score compared with CaCO3 3% CRF rats and CRF controls. In conclusion, PA21 was as effective as CaCO3 at controlling phosphocalcic disorders but superior in preventing the development of vascular calcifications in uremic rats. Thus, PA21 represents a possible alternative to calcium-based phosphate binders in CRF patients.

Failure of surgical treatment in 115 infected total hip arthroplasties - analysis of a 12-year prosthetic joint cohort study (1999-2010)

Infection of total hip arthroplasties (THA) leads to significant long-termmorbidity and high healthcare costs. We evaluated the differentreasons for treatment failure using different surgical modalities in a12-year prosthetic joint infection cohort study.Method: All patients hospitalized at our institution with infected THAwere included either retrospectively (1999-2007) or prospectively(2008-2010). THA infection was defined as growth of the same microorganismin ≥2 tissue or synovial fluid culture, visible purulence, sinustract or acute inflammation on tissue histopathology. Outcome analysiswas performed at outpatient visits, followed by contacting patients,their relatives and/or treating physicians afterwards.Results: During the study period, 117 patients with THA were identified.We exclude 2 patients due to missing data. The median age was69 years (range, 33-102 years); 42% were women. THA was mainlyperformed for osteoarthritis (n = 84), followed by trauma (n = 22),necrosis (n = 4), dysplasia (n = 2), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 1), osteosarcoma(n = 1) and tuberculosis (n = 1). 28 infections occurred early(≤3 months), 25 delayed (3-24 months) and 63 late (≥24 months aftersurgery). Infected THA were treated with (i) two-stage exchange in59 patients (51%, cure rate: 93%), (ii) one-stage exchange in 5 (4.3%,cure rate: 100%), (iii) debridement with change of mobile parts in18 (17%, cure rate: 83%), (iv) debridement without change of mobileparts in 17 (14%, cure rate: 53% ), (v) Girdlestone in 13 (11%, curerate: 100%), and (vi) two-stage exchange followed by removal in 3(2.6%). Patients were followed for a mean of 3.9 years (range, 0.1 to 9years), 7 patients died unrelated to the infected THA. 15 patients (13%)needed additional operations, 1 for mechanical reasons (dislocationof spacer) and 14 for persistent infection: 11 treated with debridementand retention (8 without change and 3 with change of mobile parts)and 3 with two-stage exchange. The mean number of surgery was 2.2(range, 1 to 5). The infection was finally eradicated in all patients, butthe functional outcome remained unsatisfactory in 20% (persistentpain or impaired mobility due to spacer or Girdlestone situation).Conclusions: Non-respect of current treatment concept leads totreatment failure with subsequent operations. Precise analysis of eachtreatment failures can be used for improving the treatment algorithmleading to better results.

Supracricoid partial laryngectomy with cricohyoidoepiglottopexy in patients with radiation therapy failure.

BACKGROUND: To assess functional results, complications, and success of larynx preservation in patients with recurrent squamous cell carcinoma after radiotherapy. METHODS: From a database of 40 patients who underwent supracricoid partial laryngectomy (SCPL) with cricohyoidoepiglottopexy (CHEP) from June 2001 to April 2006, eight patients were treated previously with radiotherapy due to squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic region and were treated for recurrence at the site of the primary cancer. RESULTS: SCPL with CHEP was performed in six men and two women with a mean age of 67 years due to recurrence and/or persistence at a mean time of 30 months postradiotherapy (in case #8 after concomitant chemoradiotherapy). Bilateral neck dissection at levels II-V was performed in six patients. Only case #8 presented metastasis in one node. In case #5, Delphian node was positive. It was possible to preserve both arytenoids in five cases. Definitive surgical margins were negative. Complications were encountered in seven patients. Follow-up was on average 44 months (range: 20-67 months). Organ preservation in this series was 75%, and local control was 87%. Overall 5-year survival was 50%. CONCLUSIONS: In selected patient with persistence and/or recurrence after radiotherapy due to cancer of the larynx, SCPL with CHEP seems to be feasible with acceptable local control and toxicity. Complications may occur as in previously non-irradiated patients. These complications must be treated conservatively to avoid altering laryngeal function.

Effect of bicarbonate and lactate buffer on glucose and lactate metabolism during hemodiafiltration in patients with multiple organ failure.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of sodium bicarbonate and lactate for continuous veno-venous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF) in critically ill patients. DESIGN AND SETTINGS: Prospective crossed-over controlled trial in the surgical and medical ICUs of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eight patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) requiring CVVHDF. INTERVENTION: Each patient received the two buffers in a randomized sequence over two consecutive days. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The following variables were determined: acid-base parameters, lactate production and utilization ((13)C lactate infusion), glucose turnover (6,6(2)H(2)-glucose), gas exchange (indirect calorimetry). No side effect was observed during lactate administration. Baseline arterial acid-base variables were equal with the two buffers. Arterial lactate (2.9 versus 1.5 mmol/l), glycemia (+18%) and glucose turnover (+23%) were higher in the lactate period. Bicarbonate and glucose losses in CVVHDF were substantial, but not lactate elimination. Infusing (13)C lactate increased plasma lactate levels equally with the two buffers. Lactate clearance (7.8+/-0.8 vs 7.5+/-0.8 ml/kg per min in the bicarbonate and lactate periods) and endogenous production rates (14.0+/-2.6 vs 13.6+/-2.6 mmol/kg per min) were similar. (13)C lactate was used as a metabolic substrate, as shown by (13)CO(2) excretion. Glycemia and metabolic rate increased significantly and similarly during the two periods during lactate infusion. CONCLUSION: Lactate was rapidly cleared from the blood of critically ill patients without acute liver failure requiring CVVHDF, being transformed into glucose or oxidized. Lactate did not exert undesirable effects, except moderate hyperglycemia, and achieved comparable effects on acid-base balance to bicarbonate.

Self-reported non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy repeatedly assessed by two questions predicts treatment failure in virologically suppressed patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of longitudinal self-reported adherence data on viral rebound. METHODS: Individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with RNA <50 copies/ml over the previous 3 months and who were interviewed about adherence at least once prior to 1 March 2007 were eligible. Adherence was defined in terms of missed doses of cART (0, 1, 2 or >2) in the previous 28 days. Viral rebound was defined as RNA >500 copies/ml. Cox regression models with time-independent and -dependent covariates were used to evaluate time to viral rebound. RESULTS: A total of 2,664 individuals and 15,530 visits were included. Across all visits, missing doses were reported as follows: 1 dose 14.7%, 2 doses 5.1%, >2 doses 3.8% taking <95% of doses 4.5% and missing > or =2 consecutive doses 3.2%. In total, 308 (11.6%) patients experienced viral rebound. After controlling for confounding variables, self-reported non-adherence remained significantly associated with the rate of occurrence of viral rebound (compared with zero missed doses: 1 dose, hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.48; 2 doses, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.46-3.25; >2 doses, HR 3.66, 95% CI 2.50-5.34). Several variables significantly associated with an increased risk of viral rebound irrespective of adherence were identified: being on a protease inhibitor or triple nucleoside regimen (compared with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor), >5 previous cART regimens, seeing a less-experienced physician, taking co-medication, and a shorter time virally suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: A simple self-report adherence questionnaire repeatedly administered provides a sensitive measure of non-adherence that predicts viral rebound.

Advanced age increases the failure rate of non-operative management of blunt splenic injuries

Introduction: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries in hemodynamically stable patients is nowadays considered the standard treatment. Material and Methods: The aim was to clarify the criteria used for primary operative management (OM) and planned NOM. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify risk factors for failure of NOM. All adult patients with blunt splenic injuries treated from 2000-2008 were reviewed and a logistic regression analysis employed. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70.9%). Mean age was 38.2 ± 19.1 years. The mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 30.9 ± 11.6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n = 43 (20.9%); grade II, n = 52 (25.2%); grade III, n = 60 (29.1%), grade IV, n = 42 (20.4%) and grade V, n = 9 (4.4%). 47 patients (22.8%) required immediate surgery (OM). More than 5 units of red cell transfusions (odds ratio [OR] 13.72, P < 0.001), a Glasgow Coma Scale < 11 (OR 9.88, P = 0.009) and age ? 55 years (OR 3.29, P = 0.038) were associated with primary OM. 159 patients (77.2%) qualified for a non-surgical approach (NOM), which was successful in 89.9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate amounted to 69.4% (143/206). Multiple logistic regression analysis found age ? 40 years to be the only factor significantly and independently related to the failure of NOM (OR 13.58, P = 0.001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate of NOM in patients with blunt splenic injuries.

Patterns of failure and outcome in patients with carcinoma of the anal margin.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the outcome of patients with carcinoma of anal margin in terms of recurrence, survival, and radiation toxicity. METHODS: A series of 45 consecutive patients, with anal margin carcinoma treated between 1983 and 2006 with curative intent at two institutions, was retrospectively analyzed. A surgical excision (close or positive surgical margin in 22 out of 29 patients) was realized before radiotherapy (RT). RT consisted of definitive external beam RT (EBRT) in 36 patients, brachytherapy (BT) alone in two patients, and both BT and EBRT in seven patients. The median total radiation dose was 59.4 Gy (range, 30-74 Gy). RESULTS: The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 78% [95% confidence interval (CI), 64-93%]. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were respectively 86% (95% CI, 72-99%) and 55% (95% CI, 44-66%). The overall anal conservation rate was 80% for the whole series. There was no significant association between local recurrence and patient age, histological grade, tumor size, T stage, overall treatment time, RT dose, or chemotherapy. Long-term side effects were observed in 15 patients (33%). Only three patients developed grade 3-4 late toxicity (CTCAE/NCI v3.0). Significant relationship was found between dose, and complication rate (48% for dose >or=59.4 Gy versus 8% for dose < 59.4 Gy; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that definitive RT and/or BT yield a good local control and disease-specific survival comparable with published data. This study suggests that radiation dose over 59.4 Gy seems to increase treatment-related morbidity.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Goodpasture's disease presenting with acute renal failure

A 15-year-old boy was admitted for vomiting, diarrhea, fatigue, crampy abdominal pain and oliguria. A renal failure was diagnosed (creatinine 2523 μmol/, urea 53,1 mmol/l) with severe aregenerative anemia (80 g/l), metabolic acidosis, hyperkalemia, elevated inflammatory markers and normal platelet count. A nephrotic proteinuria was noticed (350 g/mol). Patient's creatinine was normal 4 months before. The diagnosis of rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis was suspected. C3 and C4 were normal, ANA and ANCA were negative; anti-glomerular basement membrane antibody (anti-GBM) was positive (1/320) which lead to the diagnosis of Goodpasture's disease. Chest X-ray showed bilateral hilar infiltration and CT-scan revealed multiple alveolar haemorrhages, confirmed by broncho-alveolar lavage. Renal ultrasound showed swollen and hyperechogenous kidneys with loss of corticomedullary differentiation. Renal biopsy revealed a global extracapillary necrotising glomerulonephritis, with IgG lining the membrane at immunofluorescence. The patient was treated with continuous venovenous hemodia- filtration, plasmapheresis and immunosuppressive therapy (cyclophosphamid and corticoids) which lead to normalisation of anti-GBM level and favourable respiratory evolution with no sequelae. The renal evolution was unfavourable and the patient developed end stage renal disease and was treated with haemodialysis. Goodpasture's disease is an autoimmune process in which anti-GBM are produced against collagen IV present in the kidneys and pulmonary alveolae, resulting in acute or rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis and altering the pulmonary alveolae. It is a rare disease concerning mostly infants and young adults. Clinical presentation consists in an acute renal failure with proteinuria. Pulmonary symptoms (60-70% of the total cases) are dyspnea, cough, and haemoptysis. Diagnosis is made with the dosage of immunological anti-GBM and with renal biopsy. Factors of poor prognosis are initial oliguria, alteration of >50% of the glomerulus, very high creatinine or need of dialysis. Anti-GBM dosage is used for follow up. Patients are treated with immunosuppressive therapy for 6 to 9 months and plasmapheresis. Few recurrences are seen. Goodpasture's disease should be evoqued whenever a young patient is seen with glomerulonephritis, especially if pulmonary abnormalities are present. The disease requires an aggressive treatment in order to prevent respiratory and kidney failure.

Feasibility of non-invasive pressure support ventilation in infants with respiratory failure after extubation: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility and effects of non-invasive pressure support ventilation (NIV) on the breathing pattern in infants developing respiratory failure after extubation. DESIGN: Prospective pilot clinical study; each patient served as their own control. SETTING: A nine-bed paediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary university hospital. PATIENTS: Six patients (median age 5 months, range 0.5-7 months; median weight 4.2 kg, range 3.8-5.1 kg) who developed respiratory failure after extubation. INTERVENTIONS: After a period of spontaneous breathing (SB), children who developed respiratory failure were treated with NIV. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Measurements included clinical dyspnoea score (DS), blood gases and oesophageal pressure recordings, which were analysed for respiratory rate (RR), oesophageal inspiratory pressure swing (dPes) and oesophageal pressure-time product (PTPes). All data were collected during both periods (SB and NIV). When comparing NIV with SB, DS was reduced by 44% (P < 0.001), RR by 32% (P < 0.001), dPes by 45% (P < 0.01) and PTPes by 57% (P < 0.001). A non-significant trend for decrease in PaCO(2) was observed. CONCLUSION: In these infants, non-invasive pressure support ventilation with turbine flow generator induced a reduction of breathing frequency, dPes and PTPes, indicating reduced load of the inspiratory muscles. NIV can be used with some benefits in infants with respiratory failure after extubation.