Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Bioreporters and biosensors for arsenic detection. Biotechnological solutions for a world-wide pollution problem.

A wide variety of whole cell bioreporter and biosensor assays for arsenic detection has been developed over the past decade. The assays permit flexible detection instrumentation while maintaining excellent method of detection limits in the environmentally relevant range of 10-50 μg arsenite per L and below. New emerging trends focus on genetic rewiring of reporter cells and/or integration into microdevices for more optimal detection. A number of case studies have shown realistic field applicability of bioreporter assays.

Robust Estimators of the Generalized Log-Gamma Distribution

We propose robust estimators of the generalized log-gamma distribution and, more generally, of location-shape-scale families of distributions. A (weighted) Q tau estimator minimizes a tau scale of the differences between empirical and theoretical quantiles. It is n(1/2) consistent; unfortunately, it is not asymptotically normal and, therefore, inconvenient for inference. However, it is a convenient starting point for a one-step weighted likelihood estimator, where the weights are based on a disparity measure between the model density and a kernel density estimate. The one-step weighted likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal and fully efficient under the model. It is also highly robust under outlier contamination. Supplementary materials are available online.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PRPF mutations are associated with generalized defects in spliceosome formation and pre-mRNA splicing in patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

Proteins PRPF31, PRPF3 and PRPF8 (RP-PRPFs) are ubiquitously expressed components of the spliceosome, a macromolecular complex that processes nearly all pre-mRNAs. Although these spliceosomal proteins are conserved in eukaryotes and are essential for survival, heterozygous mutations in human RP-PRPF genes lead to retinitis pigmentosa, a hereditary disease restricted to the eye. Using cells from patients with 10 different mutations, we show that all clinically relevant RP-PRPF defects affect the stoichiometry of spliceosomal small nuclear RNAs (snRNAs), the protein composition of tri-small nuclear ribonucleoproteins and the kinetics of spliceosome assembly. These mutations cause inefficient splicing in vitro and affect constitutive splicing ex-vivo by impairing the removal of at least 9% of endogenously expressed introns. Alternative splicing choices are also affected when RP-PRPF defects are present. Furthermore, we show that the steady-state levels of snRNAs and processed pre-mRNAs are highest in the retina, indicating a particularly elevated splicing activity. Our results suggest a role for PRPFs defects in the etiology of PRPF-linked retinitis pigmentosa, which appears to be a truly systemic splicing disease. Although these mutations cause widespread and important splicing defects, they are likely tolerated by the majority of human tissues but are critical for retinal cell survival.

Modules d'endo-permutation

Dans la th´eorie des repr´esentations modulaires des groupes finis, les modules d?endo-permutation occupent une place importante. En e_et, c?est le r?ole jou´e par ces modules dans l?analyse de la structure de certains modules simples pour des groupes finis p-nilpotents, qui a amen´e E. Dade `a en introduire le concept, en 1978. Quelques ann´ees plus tard, L. Puig a d´emontr´e que la source de n?importe quel module simple pour un groupe fini p-r´esoluble quelconque est un module d?endo-permutation. Plus r´ecemment, on s?est rendu compte que ces modules interviennent aussi dans l?analyse locale des cat´egories d´eriv´ees et dans l?´etude des syst`emes de fusion. La situation que l?on consid`ere est la suivante. On se donne un nombre premier p, un p-groupe fini P, un corps alg´ebriquement clos k de caract´eristique p et on veut d´eterminer tous les kP-modules d?endo-permutation couverts ind´ecomposables de type fini, c?est-`a-dire tous les kP-modules ind´ecomposables de type fini, tels que leur alg`ebre d?endomorphismes est un kP-module de permutation ayant un facteur direct trivial. On d´efinit une relation d?´equivalence sur l?ensemble de ces kP-modules et le produit tensoriel des modules induit une structure de groupe ab´elien sur l?ensemble des classes d?´equivalence. On appelle ce groupe, le groupe de Dade de P. Ainsi, classifier les modules d?endo-permutation couverts revient `a d´eterminer le groupe de Dade de P. Le groupe de Dade d?un p-groupe fini arbitraire est encore inconnu, bien qu?E. Dade, en 1978, ´etait d´ej`a parvenu `a la classification dans le cas o`u P est ab´elien. La premi`ere partie de ce travail de th`ese est consacr´ee au probl`eme de la classification dans le cas g´en´eral et r´esoud la question dans le cas de deux familles de p-groupes finis, `a savoir celle des p-groupes m´etacycliques, pour un nombre premier p impair, et celle des 2-groupes extrasp´eciaux, de la forme D8 _ · · · _ D8. Ces deux choix ont ´et´e motiv´es par le fait que ces groupes sont "presque" ab´eliens. De plus, certains r´esultats sur la structure du groupe de Dade d?un p-groupe fini quelconque rendent le groupe de Dade des groupes de ces deux familles plus simple `a ´etudier. Dans un deuxi`eme temps, nous nous sommes int´eress´es `a deux occurrences de ces modules dans la th´eorie de la repr´esentation des groupes finis, c?est-`a-dire `a deux raisons qui motivent leur ´etude. Ainsi, nous avons r´ealis´e des modules d?endo-permutation comme sources de modules simples. En particulier, il s?av`ere que, dans le cas d?un nombre premier p impair, tout module d?endo-permutation ind´ecomposable dont la classe est un ´el´ement de torsion dans le groupe de Dade est la source d?un module simple. Finalement, nous avons d´etermin´e, parmi tous les modules d?endo-permutation connus actuellement, lesquels poss`edent une r´esolution de permutation endo-scind´ee. Nous sommes arriv´es `a la conclusion que les seuls modules d?endo-permutation qui n?ont pas de r´esolution de permutation endo-scind´ee sont les modules "exceptionnels" apparaissant pour un 2-groupe de quaternions g´en´eralis´es.<br/><br/>In modular representation theory, endo-permutation modules occupy an important position. Indeed, the role that these modules play, in the analysis of the structure of some particular simple modules for finite p-nilpotent groups, induced E. Dade, in 1978, to give them their current name. A few years later, L. Puig proved that the source of any simple module for any finite psolvable group is an endo-permutation module. More recently, the occurrence of endo-permutation modules has also been noticed in the local analysis of splendid equivalences between derived categories and in the study of fusion systems. We consider the following situation. Given a prime number p, a finite pgroup P and an algebraically closed field k of characteristic p, we are looking for all finitely generated indecomposable capped endo-permutation kP-modules. That is, all finitely generated indecomposable kP-modules such that their endomorphism algebra is a permutation kP-module having a trivial direct summand. Then, we define an equivalence relation on the set of all isomorphism classes of such modules, and it turns out that the tensor product (over k) induces a structure of abelian group on this set. We call this group the Dade group of P. Hence, classifying all indecomposable finitely generated capped endo-permutation kPmodules is equivalent to determining the Dade group of P. At present, the Dade group of an arbitrary finite p-group is still unknown. However, E. Dade computed the Dade group of all finite abelian p-groups, in 1978 already. The first part of this doctoral thesis is concerned with the problem of the classification in the general case and solve it in the case of two families of finite p-groups, namely the metacyclic p-groups, for an odd prime number p, and the extraspecial 2-groups of the shape D8 _· · ·_D8. These two choices have been motivated by the fact that these groups are not far from being abelian. Moreover, some general results concerning the Dade group of arbitrary finite p-groups suggest that the Dade group of the groups belonging to these two families is easier to study. In the second part of this thesis, we have been looking at two particular occurrences of these modules in representation theory of finite groups which motivate the interest of their classification. Thus, we realised endo-permutation modules as sources of simple modules. In particular, it turns out that, in case p is an odd prime, any indecomposable module whose class in the Dade group is a torsion element is the source of some simple module. Finally, we considered all the modules we know at present and determined which ones have an endo-split permutation resolution. We could then conclude that all but the "exceptionnal" modules occurring in the generalized quaternion case have an endo-split permutation resolution.<br/><br/>"Module d?endo-permutation" n?est pas le nom d?une maladie exotique contagieuse (du moins pas `a ma connaissance), comme vous pourriez peut-?etre l?imaginer si vous faites partie des personnes qui croient que le titre de docteur n?est destin´e qu?aux m´edecins. Dans ce cas, il se peut que le sujet dont il est question ici vous cause quelques naus´ees et r´eveille de douloureux souvenirs d?´ecole, car un module d?endo-permutation est un objet math´ematique, alg´ebrique, plus pr´ecis´ement. Ce concept a ´et´e introduit il y a un quart de si`ecle, de l?autre c?ot´e de l?Atlantique, et il s?est r´ev´el´e su_samment int´eressant pour qu?aujourd?hui il ait franchi bien des fronti`eres, celles de l?alg`ebre y compris. Mais de quoi s?agit-il ? Si vous entendez le terme "endo-permutation" probablement pour la premi`ere fois, ce n?est certainement pas le cas pour celui de "module". Cependant, sa d´efinition dans le pr´esent contexte ne co¨ýncide avec aucune de celles figurant dans les dictionnaires ordinaires. Les personnes qui ont d´ej`a entendu parler de Frobenius, Burnside, Schur, ou encore Brauer, pourront vous dire qu?un module est une repr´esentation. "De quoi ?" vous demanderezvous. "Un spectacle de marionnettes, peut-?etre ?" Bien s?ur que non ! Un module d?endo-permutation est une repr´esentation particuli`ere de certains groupes finis, o`u un groupe n?est pas un groupe de rock, comme vous pouvez vous en douter, mais d´esigne un objet math´ematique connu par tous les ´etudiants en sciences au terme de leur premi`ere ann´ee universitaire (en th´eorie, du moins). La "popularit´e" de la notion de groupe, fini ou non, est due au fait que les groupes sont fr´equemment utilis´es, aussi bien dans le domaine abstrait des math´ematiques, que dans le monde r´eel des physiciens, chimistes et autres biologistes (pour ne citer qu?eux). "Mais comment peut-on utiliser concr`etement ces objets invisibles ?" vous demanderez-vous alors. Et bien, justement, en les consid´erant par l?interm´ediaire de leurs repr´esentations, c?est-`a-dire en leur associant des matrices, de fa¸con plus ou moins naturelle. Or, comme il y a "beaucoup trop" de matrices pour un groupe donn´e, elles sont classifi´ees selon certaines de leurs propri´et´es, ce qui permet de les r´epertorier dans diverses familles (celle des modules d?endo-permutation, par exemple). Un groupe est ainsi rendu "concret", car les donn´ees matricielles sont manipulables par tous les scienti- fiques (et leurs ordinateurs), qui peuvent alors les utiliser dans leurs recherches, afin de contribuer au progr`es de la science. En toute franchise, c?est bien loin de ces soucis terre-`a-terre que ce travail de th`ese sur la classification des modules d?endo-permutation a ´et´e accompli. En fait, quitte `a choquer certaines ?ames sensibles, sa r´ealisation est surtout due au caract`ere ´epicure de son auteur, qui, avouons-le, en a ´et´e pleinement satisfait !

On solving fair exchange and related distributed problems in Byzantine environments

Abstract The solvability of the problem of fair exchange in a synchronous system subject to Byzantine failures is investigated in this work. The fair exchange problem arises when a group of processes are required to exchange digital items in a fair manner, which means that either each process obtains the item it was expecting or no process obtains any information on, the inputs of others. After introducing a novel specification of fair exchange that clearly separates safety and liveness, we give an overview of the difficulty of solving such a problem in the context of a fully-connected topology. On one hand, we show that no solution to fair exchange exists in the absence of an identified process that every process can trust a priori; on the other, a well-known solution to fair exchange relying on a trusted third party is recalled. These two results lead us to complete our system model with a flexible representation of the notion of trust. We then show that fair exchange is solvable if and only if a connectivity condition, named the reachable majority condition, is satisfied. The necessity of the condition is proven by an impossibility result and its sufficiency by presenting a general solution to fair exchange relying on a set of trusted processes. The focus is then turned towards a specific network topology in order to provide a fully decentralized, yet realistic, solution to fair exchange. The general solution mentioned above is optimized by reducing the computational load assumed by trusted processes as far as possible. Accordingly, our fair exchange protocol relies on trusted tamperproof modules that have limited communication abilities and are only required in key steps of the algorithm. This modular solution is then implemented in the context of a pedagogical application developed for illustrating and apprehending the complexity of fair exchange. This application, which also includes the implementation of a wide range of Byzantine behaviors, allows executions of the algorithm to be set up and monitored through a graphical display. Surprisingly, some of our results on fair exchange seem contradictory with those found in the literature of secure multiparty computation, a problem from the field of modern cryptography, although the two problems have much in common. Both problems are closely related to the notion of trusted third party, but their approaches and descriptions differ greatly. By introducing a common specification framework, a comparison is proposed in order to clarify their differences and the possible origins of the confusion between them. This leads us to introduce the problem of generalized fair computation, a generalization of fair exchange. Finally, a solution to this new problem is given by generalizing our modular solution to fair exchange