Stochastic Population Projection for Germany - based on the Quadratic Spline approach to modelling age specific fertility rates

This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.

New vineyard cultivation practices create patchy ground vegetation, favouring Woodlarks

Intensive agriculture, in which detrimental farming practices lessen food abundance and/or reduce food accessibility for many animal species, has led to a widespread collapse of farmland biodiversity. Vineyards in central and southern Europe are intensively cultivated; though they may still harbour several rare plant and animal species, they remain little studied. Over the past decades, there has been a considerable reduction in the application of insecticides in wine production, with a progressive shift to biological control (integrated production) and, to a lesser extent, organic production. Spraying of herbicides has also diminished, which has led to more vegetation cover on the ground, although most vineyards remain bare, especially in southern Europe. The effects of these potentially positive environmental trends upon biodiversity remain mostly unknown as regards vertebrates. The Woodlark (Lullula arborea) is an endangered, short-distance migratory bird that forages and breeds on the ground. In southern Switzerland (Valais), it occurs mostly in vineyards. We used radiotracking and mixed effects logistic regression models to assess Woodlark response to modern vineyard farming practices, study factors driving foraging micro-habitat selection, and determine optimal habitat profile to inform management. The presence of ground vegetation cover was the main factor dictating the selection of foraging locations, with an optimum around 55% at the foraging patch scale. These conditions are met in integrated production vineyards, but only when grass is tolerated on part of the ground surface, which is the case on ca. 5% of the total Valais vineyard area. In contrast, conventionally managed vineyards covering a parts per thousand yen95% of the vineyard area are too bare because of systematic application of herbicides all over the ground, whilst the rare organic vineyards usually have a too-dense sward. The optimal mosaic with ca. 50% ground vegetation cover is currently achieved in integrated production vineyards where herbicide is applied every second row. In organic production, ca. 50% ground vegetation cover should be promoted, which requires regular mechanical removal of ground vegetation. These measures are likely to benefit general biodiversity in vineyards.

Dating human skeletal remains using a radiometric method: Biogenic versus diagenetic (90)Sr and (210)Pb in vertebrae.

In forensic science, there is a strong interest in determining the post-mortem interval (PMI) of human skeletal remains up to 50 years after death. Currently, there are no reliable methods to resolve PMI, the determination of which relies almost exclusively on the experience of the investigating expert. Here we measured (90)Sr and (210)Pb ((210)Po) incorporated into bones through a biogenic process as indicators of the time elapsed since death. We hypothesised that the activity of radionuclides incorporated into trabecular bone will more accurately match the activity in the environment and the food chain at the time of death than the activity in cortical bone because of a higher remodelling rate. We found that determining (90)Sr can yield reliable PMI estimates as long as a calibration curve exists for (90)Sr covering the studied area and the last 50 years. We also found that adding the activity of (210)Po, a proxy for naturally occurring (210)Pb incorporated through ingestion, to the (90)Sr dating increases the reliability of the PMI value. Our results also show that trabecular bone is subject to both (90)Sr and (210)Po diagenesis. Accordingly, we used a solubility profile method to determine the biogenic radionuclide only, and we are proposing a new method of bone decontamination to be used prior to (90)Sr and (210)Pb dating.

Assessment of the occurrence of nanoparticles in Swiss industry and evaluation of the appropriatenesss of the measurement devices to determine the workforce exposure

Abstract : The occupational health risk involved with handling nanoparticles is the probability that a worker will experience an adverse health effect: this is calculated as a function of the worker's exposure relative to the potential biological hazard of the material. Addressing the risks of nanoparticles requires therefore knowledge on occupational exposure and the release of nanoparticles into the environment as well as toxicological data. However, information on exposure is currently not systematically collected; therefore this risk assessment lacks quantitative data. This thesis aimed at, first creating the fundamental data necessary for a quantitative assessment and, second, evaluating methods to measure the occupational nanoparticle exposure. The first goal was to determine what is being used where in Swiss industries. This was followed by an evaluation of the adequacy of existing measurement methods to assess workplace nanopaiticle exposure to complex size distributions and concentration gradients. The study was conceived as a series of methodological evaluations aimed at better understanding nanoparticle measurement devices and methods. lt focused on inhalation exposure to airborne particles, as respiration is considered to be the most important entrance pathway for nanoparticles in the body in terms of risk. The targeted survey (pilot study) was conducted as a feasibility study for a later nationwide survey on the handling of nanoparticles and the applications of specific protection means in industry. The study consisted of targeted phone interviews with health and safety officers of Swiss companies that were believed to use or produce nanoparticles. This was followed by a representative survey on the level of nanoparticle usage in Switzerland. lt was designed based on the results of the pilot study. The study was conducted among a representative selection of clients of the Swiss National Accident Insurance Fund (SUVA), covering about 85% of Swiss production companies. The third part of this thesis focused on the methods to measure nanoparticles. Several pre- studies were conducted studying the limits of commonly used measurement devices in the presence of nanoparticle agglomerates, This focus was chosen, because several discussions with users and producers of the measurement devices raised questions about their accuracy measuring nanoparticle agglomerates and because, at the same time, the two survey studies revealed that such powders are frequently used in industry. The first preparatory experiment focused on the accuracy of the scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), which showed an improbable size distribution when measuring powders of nanoparticle agglomerates. Furthermore, the thesis includes a series of smaller experiments that took a closer look at problems encountered with other measurement devices in the presence of nanoparticle agglomerates: condensation particle counters (CPC), portable aerosol spectrometer (PAS) a device to estimate the aerodynamic diameter, as well as diffusion size classifiers. Some initial feasibility tests for the efficiency of filter based sampling and subsequent counting of carbon nanotubes (CNT) were conducted last. The pilot study provided a detailed picture of the types and amounts of nanoparticles used and the knowledge of the health and safety experts in the companies. Considerable maximal quantities (> l'000 kg/year per company) of Ag, Al-Ox, Fe-Ox, SiO2, TiO2, and ZnO (mainly first generation particles) were declared by the contacted Swiss companies, The median quantity of handled nanoparticles, however, was 100 kg/year. The representative survey was conducted by contacting by post mail a representative selection of l '626 SUVA-clients (Swiss Accident Insurance Fund). It allowed estimation of the number of companies and workers dealing with nanoparticles in Switzerland. The extrapolation from the surveyed companies to all companies of the Swiss production sector suggested that l'309 workers (95%-confidence interval l'073 to l'545) of the Swiss production sector are potentially exposed to nanoparticles in 586 companies (145 to l'027). These numbers correspond to 0.08% (0.06% to 0.09%) of all workers and to 0.6% (0.2% to 1.1%) of companies in the Swiss production sector. To measure airborne concentrations of sub micrometre-sized particles, a few well known methods exist. However, it was unclear how well the different instruments perform in the presence of the often quite large agglomerates of nanostructured materials. The evaluation of devices and methods focused on nanoparticle agglomerate powders. lt allowed the identification of the following potential sources of inaccurate measurements at workplaces with considerable high concentrations of airborne agglomerates: - A standard SMPS showed bi-modal particle size distributions when measuring large nanoparticle agglomerates. - Differences in the range of a factor of a thousand were shown between diffusion size classifiers and CPC/SMPS. - The comparison between CPC/SMPS and portable aerosol Spectrometer (PAS) was much better, but depending on the concentration, size or type of the powders measured, the differences were still of a high order of magnitude - Specific difficulties and uncertainties in the assessment of workplaces were identified: the background particles can interact with particles created by a process, which make the handling of background concentration difficult. - Electric motors produce high numbers of nanoparticles and confound the measurement of the process-related exposure. Conclusion: The surveys showed that nanoparticles applications exist in many industrial sectors in Switzerland and that some companies already use high quantities of them. The representative survey demonstrated a low prevalence of nanoparticle usage in most branches of the Swiss industry and led to the conclusion that the introduction of applications using nanoparticles (especially outside industrial chemistry) is only beginning. Even though the number of potentially exposed workers was reportedly rather small, it nevertheless underscores the need for exposure assessments. Understanding exposure and how to measure it correctly is very important because the potential health effects of nanornaterials are not yet fully understood. The evaluation showed that many devices and methods of measuring nanoparticles need to be validated for nanoparticles agglomerates before large exposure assessment studies can begin. Zusammenfassung : Das Gesundheitsrisiko von Nanopartikel am Arbeitsplatz ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit dass ein Arbeitnehmer einen möglichen Gesundheitsschaden erleidet wenn er diesem Stoff ausgesetzt ist: sie wird gewöhnlich als Produkt von Schaden mal Exposition gerechnet. Für eine gründliche Abklärung möglicher Risiken von Nanomaterialien müssen also auf der einen Seite Informationen über die Freisetzung von solchen Materialien in die Umwelt vorhanden sein und auf der anderen Seite solche über die Exposition von Arbeitnehmenden. Viele dieser Informationen werden heute noch nicht systematisch gesarnmelt und felilen daher für Risikoanalysen, Die Doktorarbeit hatte als Ziel, die Grundlagen zu schaffen für eine quantitative Schatzung der Exposition gegenüber Nanopartikel am Arbeitsplatz und die Methoden zu evaluieren die zur Messung einer solchen Exposition nötig sind. Die Studie sollte untersuchen, in welchem Ausmass Nanopartikel bereits in der Schweizer Industrie eingesetzt werden, wie viele Arbeitnehrner damit potentiel] in Kontakt komrrien ob die Messtechnologie für die nötigen Arbeitsplatzbelastungsmessungen bereits genügt, Die Studie folcussierte dabei auf Exposition gegenüber luftgetragenen Partikel, weil die Atmung als Haupteintrittspforte iïlr Partikel in den Körper angesehen wird. Die Doktorarbeit besteht baut auf drei Phasen auf eine qualitative Umfrage (Pilotstudie), eine repräsentative, schweizerische Umfrage und mehrere technische Stndien welche dem spezitischen Verständnis der Mëglichkeiten und Grenzen einzelner Messgeräte und - teclmikeri dienen. Die qualitative Telephonumfrage wurde durchgeführt als Vorstudie zu einer nationalen und repräsentativen Umfrage in der Schweizer Industrie. Sie zielte auf Informationen ab zum Vorkommen von Nanopartikeln, und den angewendeten Schutzmassnahmen. Die Studie bestand aus gezielten Telefoninterviews mit Arbeit- und Gesundheitsfachpersonen von Schweizer Unternehmen. Die Untemehmen wurden aufgrund von offentlich zugànglichen lnformationen ausgewählt die darauf hinwiesen, dass sie mit Nanopartikeln umgehen. Der zweite Teil der Dolctorarbeit war die repräsentative Studie zur Evalniernng der Verbreitnng von Nanopaitikelanwendungen in der Schweizer lndustrie. Die Studie baute auf lnformationen der Pilotstudie auf und wurde mit einer repräsentativen Selektion von Firmen der Schweizerischen Unfall Versicherungsanstalt (SUVA) durchgeüihxt. Die Mehrheit der Schweizerischen Unternehmen im lndustrieselctor wurde damit abgedeckt. Der dritte Teil der Doktorarbeit fokussierte auf die Methodik zur Messung von Nanopartikeln. Mehrere Vorstudien wurden dnrchgefîihrt, um die Grenzen von oft eingesetzten Nanopartikelmessgeräten auszuloten, wenn sie grösseren Mengen von Nanopartikel Agglomeraten ausgesetzt messen sollen. Dieser F okns wurde ans zwei Gründen gewählt: weil mehrere Dislcussionen rnit Anwendem und auch dem Produzent der Messgeràte dort eine Schwachstelle vermuten liessen, welche Zweifel an der Genauigkeit der Messgeräte aufkommen liessen und weil in den zwei Umfragestudien ein häufiges Vorkommen von solchen Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten aufgezeigt wurde. i Als erstes widmete sich eine Vorstndie der Genauigkeit des Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS). Dieses Messgerät zeigte in Präsenz von Nanopartikel Agglorneraten unsinnige bimodale Partikelgrössenverteilung an. Eine Serie von kurzen Experimenten folgte, welche sich auf andere Messgeräte und deren Probleme beim Messen von Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten konzentrierten. Der Condensation Particle Counter (CPC), der portable aerosol spectrometer (PAS), ein Gerät zur Schàtzung des aerodynamischen Durchniessers von Teilchen, sowie der Diffusion Size Classifier wurden getestet. Einige erste Machbarkeitstests zur Ermittlnng der Effizienz von tilterbasierter Messung von luftgetragenen Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) wnrden als letztes durchgeiührt. Die Pilotstudie hat ein detailliiertes Bild der Typen und Mengen von genutzten Nanopartikel in Schweizer Unternehmen geliefert, und hat den Stand des Wissens der interviewten Gesundheitsschntz und Sicherheitsfachleute aufgezeigt. Folgende Typen von Nanopaitikeln wurden von den kontaktierten Firmen als Maximalmengen angegeben (> 1'000 kg pro Jahr / Unternehrnen): Ag, Al-Ox, Fe-Ox, SiO2, TiO2, und ZnO (hauptsächlich Nanopartikel der ersten Generation). Die Quantitäten von eingesetzten Nanopartikeln waren stark verschieden mit einem ein Median von 100 kg pro Jahr. ln der quantitativen Fragebogenstudie wurden l'626 Unternehmen brieflich kontaktiert; allesamt Klienten der Schweizerischen Unfallversicherringsanstalt (SUVA). Die Resultate der Umfrage erlaubten eine Abschätzung der Anzahl von Unternehmen und Arbeiter, welche Nanopartikel in der Schweiz anwenden. Die Hochrechnung auf den Schweizer lndnstriesektor hat folgendes Bild ergeben: ln 586 Unternehmen (95% Vertrauensintervallz 145 bis 1'027 Unternehmen) sind 1'309 Arbeiter potentiell gegenüber Nanopartikel exponiert (95%-Vl: l'073 bis l'545). Diese Zahlen stehen für 0.6% der Schweizer Unternehmen (95%-Vl: 0.2% bis 1.1%) und 0.08% der Arbeiternehmerschaft (95%-V1: 0.06% bis 0.09%). Es gibt einige gut etablierte Technologien um die Luftkonzentration von Submikrometerpartikel zu messen. Es besteht jedoch Zweifel daran, inwiefern sich diese Technologien auch für die Messurrg von künstlich hergestellten Nanopartikeln verwenden lassen. Aus diesem Grund folcussierten die vorbereitenden Studien für die Arbeitsplatzbeurteilnngen auf die Messung von Pulverri, welche Nan0partike1-Agg10merate enthalten. Sie erlaubten die ldentifikation folgender rnöglicher Quellen von fehlerhaften Messungen an Arbeitsplätzen mit erhöhter Luft-K0nzentrati0n von Nanopartikel Agglomeratenz - Ein Standard SMPS zeigte eine unglaubwürdige bimodale Partikelgrössenverteilung wenn er grössere Nan0par'til<e1Agg10merate gemessen hat. - Grosse Unterschiede im Bereich von Faktor tausend wurden festgestellt zwischen einem Diffusion Size Classiîier und einigen CPC (beziehungsweise dem SMPS). - Die Unterschiede zwischen CPC/SMPS und dem PAS waren geringer, aber abhängig von Grosse oder Typ des gemessenen Pulvers waren sie dennoch in der Grössenordnung von einer guten Grössenordnung. - Spezifische Schwierigkeiten und Unsicherheiten im Bereich von Arbeitsplatzmessungen wurden identitiziert: Hintergrundpartikel können mit Partikeln interagieren die während einem Arbeitsprozess freigesetzt werden. Solche Interaktionen erschweren eine korrekte Einbettung der Hintergrunds-Partikel-Konzentration in die Messdaten. - Elektromotoren produzieren grosse Mengen von Nanopartikeln und können so die Messung der prozessbezogenen Exposition stören. Fazit: Die Umfragen zeigten, dass Nanopartikel bereits Realitàt sind in der Schweizer Industrie und dass einige Unternehmen bereits grosse Mengen davon einsetzen. Die repräsentative Umfrage hat diese explosive Nachricht jedoch etwas moderiert, indem sie aufgezeigt hat, dass die Zahl der Unternehmen in der gesamtschweizerischen Industrie relativ gering ist. In den meisten Branchen (vor allem ausserhalb der Chemischen Industrie) wurden wenig oder keine Anwendungen gefunden, was schliessen last, dass die Einführung dieser neuen Technologie erst am Anfang einer Entwicklung steht. Auch wenn die Zahl der potentiell exponierten Arbeiter immer noch relativ gering ist, so unterstreicht die Studie dennoch die Notwendigkeit von Expositionsmessungen an diesen Arbeitsplätzen. Kenntnisse um die Exposition und das Wissen, wie solche Exposition korrekt zu messen, sind sehr wichtig, vor allem weil die möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Gesundheit noch nicht völlig verstanden sind. Die Evaluation einiger Geräte und Methoden zeigte jedoch, dass hier noch Nachholbedarf herrscht. Bevor grössere Mess-Studien durgefîihrt werden können, müssen die Geräte und Methodem für den Einsatz mit Nanopartikel-Agglomeraten validiert werden.

Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.

Une vue globale du secteur ambulatoire: étude structurelle et fonctionnelle dans les cantons de Vaud et Fribourg. [A general view of the ambulatory care sector: Structural and functional study in the cantons of Vaud and Fribourg].

The project "Quantification and qualification of ambulatory health care", financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation and covering the Cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, has two main goals: --a structural study of the elements of the ambulatory care sector. This is done through inventories of the professions concerned (physicians, public health nurses, physiotherapists, pharmacists, medical laboratories), allowing to better characterize the "offer". This inventory work includes the collect and analysis of existing statistical data as well as surveys, by questionnaires sent (from September 1980) to the different professions and by interviews. --a functional study, inspired from the US National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and from similar studies elsewhere, in order to investigate the modes of practice of various providers, with particular regard to interprofessional collaboration (through studying referrals from the ones to the others). The first months of the project have been used for a methodological research in this regard, centered on the use of systems analysis, and for the elaboration of adequate instruments.

Caractérisation des taxons du genre Ornithogalum, sous-genre Heliocharmos (Hyacinthaceae), en Afrique du Nord et en France : analyse morphologique et biogéographique

Two species of Ornithogalum subg. Heliocharmos are present in North Africa: O. algeriense and O. kochii. These are often confused with O. umbellatum from Europe. Several populations covering the spread of variation of these species were studied biometrically using macromorphological characters. Multivariate analysis results suggest that O. kochii is close to the diploid cytotype of O. umbellatum. The diploid cytotypes are closer to the popyploid series of O. umbellatum than to O. algeriense. These results are discussed in relation to biogeography and evolution.

Exudative mineral losses after serious burns: a clue to the alterations of magnesium and phosphate metabolism.

Hypomagnesemia and hypophosphatemia are frequent after severe burns; however, increased urinary excretion does not sufficiently explain the magnitude of the mineral depletion. We measured the mineral content of cutaneous exudates during the first week after injury. Sixteen patients aged 34 +/- 9 y (mean +/- SD) with thermal burns were studied prospectively and divided in 3 groups according to the extent of their burn injury and the presence or absence of mineral supplements: group 1 (n = 5), burns covering 26 +/- 5% of body surface; group 2 (n = 6), burns covering 41 +/- 10%; and group 3 (n = 5), burns covering 42 +/- 6% with prescription of magnesium and phosphate supplements. Cutaneous exudates were extracted from the textiles (surgical drapes, dressings, sheets, etc) surrounding the patients from day 1 to day 7 after injury. Mean magnesium serum concentrations decreased below reference ranges in 12 patients between days 1 and 4 and normalized thereafter. Phosphate, normal on day 0, was low during the first week. Albumin concentrations, normal on day 0, decreased and remained low. Urinary magnesium and phosphate excretion were within reference ranges and not larger in group 3. Mean daily cutaneous losses were 16 mmol Mg/d and 11 mmol P/d (largest in group 2). Exudative magnesium losses were correlated with burn severity (r = 0.709, P = 0.003). Cutaneous magnesium losses were nearly four times larger than urinary losses whereas cutaneous phosphate losses were smaller than urinary phosphate losses. Mean daily losses of both magnesium and phosphate were more than the recommended dietary allowances. Exudative losses combined with urinary losses largely explained the increased mineral requirements after burn injury.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Chromosome localization of microsatellite markers in the shrews of the Sorex araneus group.

The extremely high rate of karyotypic evolution that characterizes the shrews of the Sorex araneus group makes this group an exceptionally interesting model for population genetics and evolutionary studies. Here, we attempted to map 46 microsatellite markers at the chromosome arm level using flow-sorted chromosomes from three karyotypically different taxa of the Sorex araneus group (S. granarius and the chromosome races Cordon and Novosibirsk of S. araneus). The most likely localizations were provided for 35 markers, among which 25 were each unambiguously mapped to a single locus on the corresponding chromosomes in the three taxa, covering the three sexual chromosomes (XY1Y2) and nine of the 18 autosomal arms of the S. araneus group. The results provide further evidence for a high degree of conservation in genome organization in the S. araneus group despite the presence of numerous Robertsonian rearrangements. These markers can therefore be used to compare the genetic structure among taxa of the S. araneus group at the chromosome level and to study the role of chromosomal rearrangements in the genetic diversification and speciation process of this group.

Systematic assessment of items influencing Crohn's disease patient's preferences in selecting an anti-TNF agent (Choose TNF trial)

Background and Aims: The three anti-TNF agents infliximab (IFX), adalimumab (ADA) andcertolizumab pegol (CZP) have demonstrated similar efficacy in induction and maintenanceof response and remission in Crohn's disease (CD) treatment. Given the comparability ofthese drugs, patient's preferences may influence the choice of the product. However, dataon patient's preferences for choosing anti-TNF agents are lacking. We therefore aimed toassess the CD patient's appraisal to select the drug of his choice and to identify factorsguiding this decision.Methods: A prospective survey among anti-TNF-naive CD patientswas performed. Patients were provided a description of the three anti-TNF agents focusingon indication, application mode (s.c. vs. i.v.), application time intervals, setting of application(hospital vs. private practice vs. patient's home), average time to apply the medication permonth, typical side effects, and the scientific evidence of efficacy and safety available for everydrug. Patients answered a questionnaire consisting of 17 questions, covering demographic,disease-specific, and medication data.Results: Hundred patients (47f/53m, mean age 45±16years) completed the questionnaire. Disease duration was <1year in 7%, 1-5 years in 31%,and >5 years in 62% of patients. Disease location was ileal in 33%, colonic in 40%, andileocolonic in 27%. Disease phenotype was inflammatory in 68%, stenosing in 29%, andinternally fistulizing in 3% of patients. Additionally, 20% had perianal fistulizing disease.Patients were already treated with the following drugs: mesalamines 61%, budesonide 44%,prednisone 97%, thiopurines 78%, methotrexate 16%. In total, 30% had already heardabout IFX, 20% about ADA, and 11% about CZP. Thirty-six percent voted for treatmentwith ADA, 28% for CZP, and 25% for IFX, whereas 11% were undecided. The followingfactors influenced the patient's decision for choosing a specific anti-TNF drug (severalanswers possible): side effects 76%, physician's recommendation 66%, application mode54%, efficacy experience 52%, time to spend for therapy 27%, patient's recommendations21%, interactions with other medications 12%. The single most important factor for choosinga specific anti-TNF was (1 answer): side effect profile 35%, physician's recommendation22%, efficacy experience 21%, application mode 13%, patient's recommendations 5%, timespent for therapy 3%, interaction with other medications 1%.Conclusions: The majority ofpatients preferred anti-TNF syringes to infusions. The safety profile of the drugs and thephysician's recommendation are major factors influencing the patient's choice for a specificanti-TNF drug. Patient's issues about safety and lifestyle habits should be taken into accountwhen prescribing specific anti-TNF formulations.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of seven psychotropic drugs and four metabolites in human plasma by HPLC-MS.

A simple and sensitive LC-MS method was developed and validated for the simultaneous quantification of aripiprazole (ARI), atomoxetine (ATO), duloxetine (DUL), clozapine (CLO), olanzapine (OLA), sertindole (STN), venlafaxine (VEN) and their active metabolites dehydroaripiprazole (DARI), norclozapine (NCLO), dehydrosertindole (DSTN) and O-desmethylvenlafaxine (OVEN) in human plasma. The above mentioned compounds and the internal standard (remoxipride) were extracted from 0.5 mL plasma by solid-phase extraction (mix mode support). The analytical separation was carried out on a reverse phase liquid chromatography at basic pH (pH 8.1) in gradient mode. All analytes were monitored by MS detection in the single ion monitoring mode and the method was validated covering the corresponding therapeutic range: 2-200 ng/mL for DUL, OLA, and STN, 4-200 ng/mL for DSTN, 5-1000 ng/mL for ARI, DARI and finally 2-1000 ng/mL for ATO, CLO, NCLO, VEN, OVEN. For all investigated compounds, good performance in terms of recoveries, selectivity, stability, repeatability, intermediate precision, trueness and accuracy, was obtained. Real patient plasma samples were then successfully analysed.

Postmortem biochemical investigations in hypothermia fatalities.

Despite the progress made during the past several decades in forensic pathology, the possibilities for the postmortem diagnosis of hypothermia remains relatively limited. Aside from histology and immunohistochemistry, numerous authors have investigated the postmortem biochemistry of hypothermia fatalities. Several biochemical markers (e.g., glucose, electrolytes, hormones, ketone bodies, and neurotransmitters) and various biological samples (e.g., blood, urine, heart, liver, skeletal muscle as well as pericardial and cerebrospinal fluids) have been proposed as potentially useful markers to improve the insufficient diagnostic efficacy of macroscopic and microscopic findings. The aim of this article is to review the medicolegal literature covering the postmortem biochemical investigations that are associated with hypothermia cases as well as report our own research results on this topic where possible.

Obesity in Switzerland: a critical assessment of prevalence in children and adults.

The objective was to analyze the situation in Switzerland regarding the prevalence of overweight or obesity in children, adolescents and adults. The data were compared with France, an adjacent much larger country. The results showed that there is a definitive lack of objective information in Switzerland on the prevalence of obesity at different ages. As in other European studies, the fact that many national surveys are classically based on subject interviews (self-reported weights and heights rather than measured values) implies that the overweight/obesity prevalence is largely underestimated in adulthood. For example, in a recent Swiss epidemiological study, the prevalence of obesity (BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2)) averaged 6-7% in young men and women (25-34 y), the prevalence being underestimated by a factor of two to three when body weight was self-reported rather than measured. This phenomenon has already been observed in previous European studies. It is concluded that National Surveys based on telephone interviews generally produce biased obesity prevalence results, although the direction of the changes in prevalence of obesity and its evolution with repeated surveys using strict standardized methodology may be evaluated correctly. Therefore, these surveys should be complemented by large-scale epidemiological studies (based on measured anthropomeric variables rather than declared) covering the different linguistic areas of Switzerland. An epidemiological body weight (BMI) monitoring surveillance system, using a harmonized methodology among European countries, would help to accurately assess differences in obesity prevalence across Europe without methodological bias. It will permit monitoring of the dynamic evolution of obesity prevalence as well as the development of appropriate strategies (taking into account the specificity of each country) for obesity prevention and treatment.

Circadian and wake-dependent effects on the pupil light reflex in response to narrow-bandwidth light pulses.

PURPOSE: Nonvisual light-dependent functions in humans are conveyed mainly by intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells, which express melanopsin as photopigment. We aimed to identify the effects of circadian phase and sleepiness across 24 hours on various aspects of the pupil response to light stimulation. METHODS: We tested 10 healthy adults hourly in two 12-hour sessions covering a 24-hour period. Pupil responses to narrow bandwidth red (635 ± 18 nm) and blue (463 ± 24 nm) light (duration of 1 and 30 seconds) at equal photon fluxes were recorded, and correlated with salivary melatonin concentrations at the same circadian phases and to subjective sleepiness ratings. The magnitude of pupil constriction was determined from minimal pupil size. The post-stimulus pupil response was assessed from the pupil size at 6 seconds following light offset, the area within the redilation curve, and the exponential rate of redilation. RESULTS: Among the measured parameters, the pupil size 6 seconds after light offset correlated with melatonin concentrations (P < 0.05) and showed a significant modulation over 24 hours with maximal values after the nocturnal peak of melatonin secretion. In contrast, the post-stimulus pupil response following red light stimulation correlated with subjective sleepiness (P < 0.05) without significant changes over 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: The post-stimulus pupil response to blue light as a marker of intrinsic melanopsin activity demonstrated a circadian modulation. In contrast, the effect of sleepiness was more apparent in the cone contribution to the pupil response. Thus, pupillary responsiveness to light is under influence of the endogenous circadian clock and subjective sleepiness.