Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Role of CLOCK and circadian rhythms in calcium homeostasis

Le maintien d'une concentration sanguine constante de calcium est d'une importance cruciale et trois organes participent à la balance calcique normale : les reins, les intestins et les os. La concentration plasmatique de calcium est strictement régulée par l'hormone parathyroïdienne (PTH) et par la vitamine D. Des variations circadiennes de la PTH, de la vitamine D ainsi que du calcium plasmatique ont été décrites précédemment chez l'humain ainsi que chez le rat. Ces rythmes de PTH dans le sérum sont importants pour la régulation du remodelage de l'os. En effet, il a été montré chez les souris C57BL/6J que des injections de PTH une fois par jour mènent à une augmentation de la densité minérale de l'os alors que l'infusion en continu de PTH est associée à une diminution de cette densité. La vitamine D joue également un rôle fondamental dans la physiologie osseuse, car un déficit en vitamine D peut conduire à une ostéomalacie. Cependant la fonction des oscillations de vitamine D au niveau de l'homéostasie osseuse reste inconnue. L'horloge circadienne est un système interne de contrôle biologique du temps générant des rythmes de 24 heures dans l'expression des gènes, ainsi que dans la physiologie et le comportement. Ce contrôle s'opère par des boucles rétroactives positives et négatives de l'expression de gènes circadiens tels que CLOCK, BMAL1, CRY1 et 2 ou PERI et 2. Dans ce travail, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que l'homéostasie calcique est sous le contrôle de l'horloge circadienne. Dans un premier temps, nous avons montré chez les souris C57BL/6J des variations journalières des concentrations de calcium, de PTH et de vitamine D dans le sang, ainsi que de calcium dans les urines. Nous avons également démontré des changements au niveau de l'expression rénale des gènes importants dans l'homéostasie du calcium, tant au niveau de l'ARN messager que des protéines. Ensuite, pour analyser le rôle du système de l'horloge circadienne dans l'homéostasie du calcium, nous avons étudié des souris dans lesquelles a été supprimé le gène CLOCK crucial pour la fonction de l'horloge et nous avons comparé ces souris à des souris de type sauvage de même portée. Les souris CLOCK-I- étaient hypercalciuriques à chaque moment de la journée. Cependant le rythme circadien de l'excrétion de calcium était préservé. Le taux de calcium plasmatique ne différait pas entre les génotypes, mais les souris CLOCK -/- ne montraient pas de variations journalières de ce paramètre. Une perte du rythme journalier était également observée pour les niveaux de vitamine D, perte qui pourrait être une cause de l'altération de la micro-architecture osseuse révélée chez les souris CLOCK-/-. En effet, ces souris montrent une diminution du nombre de trabécules, de leur volume ainsi que de leur surface, ce qui suggère la présence d'ostéoporose. Nous avons également trouvé que le rythme de l'expression de l'ARN messager de CYP27B1 était aboli dans les reins des souris CLOCK -/-, ce qui peut expliquer l'altération du rythme de la vitamine D. Les taux sanguins de PTH étaient comparables entre les souris CLOCK -/- et de type sauvage. Dans les reins, une augmentation de l'expression de l'ARN messager de TRPV5 et NCX1 a été constatée, ce qui suggérerait une augmentation de la réabsorption de calcium dans le tubule convoluté distal et dans le tubule connecteur. Dans les intestins, la réabsorption calcique était diminuée, chez les souris CLOCK-I-, fait confirmé par une diminution des niveaux d'ARN messager de TRPV6 et PMCAL. En résumé, la suppression du gène CLOCK chez les souris a conduit à une hypercalciurie, une altération du rythme des taux plasmatiques de calcium et de vitamine D et à une détérioration de l'architecture osseuse. Pour conclure, ces résultats montrent que l'horloge circadienne est essentielle à l'homéostasie calcique ainsi qu'à la physiologie des os. - L'ostéoporose affecte environ 22 millions de femmes et 5.5 millions d'hommes en Europe, réduisant significativement leur qualité de vie et a causé 3.5 millions de nouvelles fractures en 2010. Les dépenses totales liées à ces fractures ont atteint 37 milliards d'euro et ce coût devrait augmenter de 25% d'ici à 2025. Le nombre de nouvelles fractures dues à l'ostéoporose à travers le monde est estimé à environ 1000 par heure. Parmi les causes de l'ostéoporose, le déficit én calcium et/ou en vitamine D joue un rôle important, mais il existe également des causes génétiques ou liées à des facteurs comme les hormones sexuelles (estrogènes, testostérone), l'âge, le tabac, le poids corporel, certains médicaments,... La vie est rythmique : ceci est dû à l'alternance naturelle du jour et de la nuit et de ses effets sur le corps. La prise alimentaire, par exemple, est un processus qui a lieu pendant la phase active, qui est prévisible (il se produit toujours au même moment) et qui peut être anticipé par le corps. Pour cela, une horloge interne est présente dans chaque cellule du corps et est synchronisée par la lumière du jour, entre autres stimuli. Cette horloge indique la phase du jour et régule l'expression de gènes impliqués dans les différents processus qui nécessitent une anticipation. Pendant mon travail de thèse, je me suis demandé si des îythmes circadiens (c'est-à-dire d'une durée d'environ 24 heures et indépendants des stimuli externes) étaient observables'pour les gènes régulant les flux de calcium dans le corps et si l'interruption de ces rythmes pouvait mener à des altérations de la qualité de l'os. J'ai d'abord travaillé avec des souris normales et j'ai pu montrer la présence de rythmes au niveau du calcium sanguin et urinaire, mais également au niveau des hormones et gènes qui contrôlent le métabolisme du calcium dans le corps, comme la vitamine D et l'hormone parathyroidienne. De manière intéressante, j'ai observé que la plupart de ces gènes ont un rythme synchronisé. J'ai ensuite utilisé un modèle de souris dans lequel l'horloge interne a été génétiquement invalidée et j'ai montré que ces souris présentent une augmentation de leur excrétion urinaire de calcium et un rythme circadien altéré de la vitamine D dans le sang. Ces souris absorbent aussi moins bien le calcium intestinal et présentent une ostéoporose marquée. Ce travail montre donc que l'horloge interne est nécessaire pour établir un rythme circadiens de certains facteurs influant les flux de calcium dans l'organisme, comme la vitamine D, et que la perturbation de ces rythmes mène à une dérégulation du métabolisme osseux. Ainsi, la perturbation de l'horloge interne peut causer une ostéoporose et une hypercalciurie qui pourraient aboutir à la formation de fractures et de calculs rénaux. L'extrapolation de ces observations chez l'homme ou à des changements plus subtiles des rythmes circadiens, comme le décalage horaire, restent à montrer. Cette recherche a démontré que les rythmes circadiens des mécanismes de régulation des flux de calcium dans l'organisme sont essentiels au maintien d'un squelette normal et suggère que les perturbations des rythmes circadiens pourraient être une nouvelle cause de l'ostéoporose. - Maintaining constant calcium concentration in the plasma is of a crucial importance and three organs participate in normal calcium balance - kidney, gut and bone. Plasma calcium concentration is strictly regulated by parathyroid hormone (PTH) and vitamin D. Circadian variations of PTH, vitamin D and plasma calcium were previously described in humans, as well as in rats. Rhythms in serum PTH are important for balanced bone remodelling. Indeed in C57BL/6J mice, PTH injection once per day leads to an increase in bone mineral density (BMD), whilst continuous infusion is associated with decreased BMD. Vitamin D also plays a crucial role in bone physiology, since the deficiency in vitamin D can lead to rickets/osteomalacia. However, the role of vitamin D rhythms in bone homeostasis remains unknown. The circadian clock is an. internal time-keeping system generating rhythms in gene expression with 24h periodicity, in physiology and in behaviour. It is operated by positive- and negative-feedback loops of circadian genes, such as CLOCK, BMAL1, CRY1 and 2 or PERI and 2. In this work, we hypothesized, that calcium homeostasis is under the control of the circadian clock. First, we showed daily variations in urinary calcium and serum calcium, PTH and l,25(OH)2 vitamin D, together with renal mRNA and protein levels of genes involved in calcium homeostasis in C57BL/6J mice. Second, and to investigate the role of the circadian clock system in calcium handling, we studied mice lacking the gene CLOCK crucial for fonction of the clock system and compared them to the WT littermates. CLOCK-/- mice were hypercalciuric at all timepoints of the day. However, the circadian rhythm of calcium excretion was preserved. Serum calcium levels did not differ between the genotypes, but CLOCK-/- mice did not exhibit daily variation for this parameter. Loss of rhythm was observed also for serum l,25(OH)2 vitamin D levels, which may be one of the causes of altered bone microarchitecture that was revealed in CLOCK-/- mice. They displayed increased trabecular separation and decreased trabecular number, trabecular bone volume and trabecular bone surface, suggestive of osteoporosis. We found that the rhythm of the mRNA expression of CYP27B1 was abolished in the kidney of CLOCK-/- mice, which could induce the altered rhythm of l,25(OH)2 vitamin. Serum PTH levels were comparable between CLOCK-/- and WT mice. In the kidney, increased mRNA expression of TRPV5 and NCX1 suggests increased calcium reabsorption in the distal convoluted and connecting tubule. In the gut, intestinal calcium absorption was decreased in CLOCK¬/- mice, confirmed by decreased mRNA levels of TRPV6 and PMCA1. In summary, deletion of the CLOCK gene in mice conducts to hypercalciuria, alteration of the rhythm in serum calcium and l,25(OH)2D levels, and impainnent of their bone microarchitecture. In conclusion, these data show that the circadian clock system is essential in calcium homeostasis and bone physiology.

Study of isotopic variations in black powder: reflections on the use of stable isotopes in forensic science for source inference.

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has recently made its appearance in the forensic community. This high-precision technology has already been applied to a broad range of forensic fields such as illicit drugs, explosives and flammable liquids, where current, routinely used techniques have limited powers of discrimination. The conclusions drawn from the majority of these IRMS studies appear to be very promising. Used in a comparative process, as in food or drug authentication, the measurement of stable isotope ratios is a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source or origin. However, the research consists mostly of preliminary studies. The significance of this 'new' piece of information needs to be evaluated in light of a forensic framework to assess the actual potential and validity of IRMS, considering the characteristics of each field. Through the isotopic study of black powder, this paper aims at illustrating the potential of the method and the limitations of current knowledge in stable isotopes when facing forensic problems.

Three-Dimensional (3D) Microarchitecture Correlations with 2D Projection Image Gray-Level Variations Assessed by Trabecular Bone Score Using High-Resolution Computed Tomographic Acquisitions: Effects of Resolution and Noise.

The aim of the present study is to determine the level of correlation between the 3-dimensional (3D) characteristics of trabecular bone microarchitecture, as evaluated using microcomputed tomography (μCT) reconstruction, and trabecular bone score (TBS), as evaluated using 2D projection images directly derived from 3D μCT reconstruction (TBSμCT). Moreover, we have evaluated the effects of image degradation (resolution and noise) and X-ray energy of projection on these correlations. Thirty human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a microscanner at an isotropic resolution of 93μm. The 3D microarchitecture parameters were obtained using MicroView (GE Healthcare, Wauwatosa, MI). The 2D projections of these 3D models were generated using the Beer-Lambert law at different X-ray energies. Degradation of image resolution was simulated (from 93 to 1488μm). Relationships between 3D microarchitecture parameters and TBSμCT at different resolutions were evaluated using linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were observed between TBSμCT and 3D microarchitecture parameters, regardless of the resolution. Correlations were detected that were strongly to intermediately positive for connectivity density (0.711≤r(2)≤0.752) and trabecular number (0.584≤r(2)≤0.648) and negative for trabecular space (-0.407 ≤r(2)≤-0.491), up to a pixel size of 1023μm. In addition, TBSμCT values were strongly correlated between each other (0.77≤r(2)≤0.96). Study results show that the correlations between TBSμCT at 93μm and 3D microarchitecture parameters are weakly impacted by the degradation of image resolution and the presence of noise.

Bacterial variations on the methionine salvage pathway.

BACKGROUND: The thiomethyl group of S-adenosylmethionine is often recycled as methionine from methylthioadenosine. The corresponding pathway has been unravelled in Bacillus subtilis. However methylthioadenosine is subjected to alternative degradative pathways depending on the organism. RESULTS: This work uses genome in silico analysis to propose methionine salvage pathways for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Leptospira interrogans, Thermoanaerobacter tengcongensis and Xylella fastidiosa. Experiments performed with mutants of B. subtilis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa substantiate the hypotheses proposed. The enzymes that catalyze the reactions are recruited from a variety of origins. The first, ubiquitous, enzyme of the pathway, MtnA (methylthioribose-1-phosphate isomerase), belongs to a family of proteins related to eukaryotic intiation factor 2B alpha. mtnB codes for a methylthioribulose-1-phosphate dehydratase. Two reactions follow, that of an enolase and that of a phosphatase. While in B. subtilis this is performed by two distinct polypeptides, in the other organisms analyzed here an enolase-phosphatase yields 1,2-dihydroxy-3-keto-5-methylthiopentene. In the presence of dioxygen an aci-reductone dioxygenase yields the immediate precursor of methionine, ketomethylthiobutyrate. Under some conditions this enzyme produces carbon monoxide in B. subtilis, suggesting a route for a new gaseous mediator in bacteria. Ketomethylthiobutyrate is finally transaminated by an aminotransferase that exists usually as a broad specificity enzyme (often able to transaminate aromatic aminoacid keto-acid precursors or histidinol-phosphate). CONCLUSION: A functional methionine salvage pathway was experimentally demonstrated, for the first time, in P. aeruginosa. Apparently, methionine salvage pathways are frequent in Bacteria (and in Eukarya), with recruitment of different polypeptides to perform the needed reactions (an ancestor of a translation initiation factor and RuBisCO, as an enolase, in some Firmicutes). Many are highly dependent on the presence of oxygen, suggesting that the ecological niche may play an important role for the existence and/or metabolic steps of the pathway, even in phylogenetically related bacteria. Further work is needed to uncover the corresponding steps when dioxygen is scarce or absent (this is important to explore the presence of the pathway in Archaea). The thermophile T. tengcongensis, that thrives in the absence of oxygen, appears to possess the pathway. It will be an interesting link to uncover the missing reactions in anaerobic environments.

European climate variations over the past half-millennium reconstructed from groundwater

Temperature reconstructions for recent centuries are the basis of estimations of the natural variability in the climate system before and during the onset of anthropogenic perturbation. Here we present, for the first time, an independent and physically based reconstruction of mean annual temperature over the past half millennium obtained from groundwater in France. The reconstructed noble gas temperature (NGT) record suggests cooler than present climate conditions throughout the 16th-19th centuries. Periods of warming occur in the 17th-18th and 20th century, while cooling is reconstructed in the 19th century. A noticeable coincidence with other temperature records is demonstrated. Deuterium excess varies in parallel with the NGT, and indicates variation in the seasonality of the aquifer recharge; whereas high excess air in groundwater indicates periods with high oscillations of the water table.

Comparing potentially avoidable hospitalization rates related to ambulatory care sensitive conditions in Switzerland: the need to refine the definition of health conditions and to adjust for population health status.

BACKGROUND: Regional rates of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) are used to compare the availability and quality of ambulatory care but the risk adjustment for population health status is often minimal. The objectives of the study was to examine the impact of more extensive risk adjustment on regional comparisons and to investigate the relationship between various area-level factors and the properly adjusted rates. METHODS: Our study is an observational study based on routine data of 2 million anonymous insured in 26 Swiss cantons followed over one or two years. A binomial negative regression was modeled with increasingly detailed information on health status (age and gender only, inpatient diagnoses, outpatient conditions inferred from dispensed drugs and frequency of physician visits). Hospitalizations for ACSC were identified from principal diagnoses detecting 19 conditions, with an updated list of ICD-10 diagnostic codes. Co-morbidities and surgical procedures were used as exclusion criteria to improve the specificity of the detection of potentially avoidable hospitalizations. The impact of the adjustment approaches was measured by changes in the standardized ratios calculated with and without other data besides age and gender. RESULTS: 25% of cases identified by inpatient main diagnoses were removed by applying exclusion criteria. Cantonal ACSC hospitalizations rates varied from to 1.4 to 8.9 per 1,000 insured, per year. Morbidity inferred from diagnoses and drugs dramatically increased the predictive performance, the greatest effect found for conditions linked to an ACSC. More visits were associated with fewer PAH although very high users were at greater risk and subjects who had not consulted at negligible risk. By maximizing health status adjustment, two thirds of the cantons changed their adjusted ratio by more than 10 percent. Cantonal variations remained substantial but unexplained by supply or demand. CONCLUSION: Additional adjustment for health status is required when using ACSC to monitor ambulatory care. Drug-inferred morbidities are a promising approach.

Copy number variations and cognitive phenotypes in unselected populations

IMPORTANCE: The association of copy number variations (CNVs), differing numbers of copies of genetic sequence at locations in the genome, with phenotypes such as intellectual disability has been almost exclusively evaluated using clinically ascertained cohorts. The contribution of these genetic variants to cognitive phenotypes in the general population remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical features conferred by CNVs associated with known syndromes in adult carriers without clinical preselection and to assess the genome-wide consequences of rare CNVs (frequency ≤0.05%; size ≥250 kilobase pairs [kb]) on carriers' educational attainment and intellectual disability prevalence in the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The population biobank of Estonia contains 52,000 participants enrolled from 2002 through 2010. General practitioners examined participants and filled out a questionnaire of health- and lifestyle-related questions, as well as reported diagnoses. Copy number variant analysis was conducted on a random sample of 7877 individuals and genotype-phenotype associations with education and disease traits were evaluated. Our results were replicated on a high-functioning group of 993 Estonians and 3 geographically distinct populations in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Italy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Phenotypes of genomic disorders in the general population, prevalence of autosomal CNVs, and association of these variants with educational attainment (from less than primary school through scientific degree) and prevalence of intellectual disability. RESULTS: Of the 7877 in the Estonian cohort, we identified 56 carriers of CNVs associated with known syndromes. Their phenotypes, including cognitive and psychiatric problems, epilepsy, neuropathies, obesity, and congenital malformations are similar to those described for carriers of identical rearrangements ascertained in clinical cohorts. A genome-wide evaluation of rare autosomal CNVs (frequency, ≤0.05%; ≥250 kb) identified 831 carriers (10.5%) of the screened general population. Eleven of 216 (5.1%) carriers of a deletion of at least 250 kb (odds ratio [OR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.51-5.98; P = 1.5e-03) and 6 of 102 (5.9%) carriers of a duplication of at least 1 Mb (OR, 3.67; 95% CI, 1.29-8.54; P = .008) had an intellectual disability compared with 114 of 6819 (1.7%) in the Estonian cohort. The mean education attainment was 3.81 (P = 1.06e-04) among 248 (≥250 kb) deletion carriers and 3.69 (P = 5.024e-05) among 115 duplication carriers (≥1 Mb). Of the deletion carriers, 33.5% did not graduate from high school (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.12-1.95; P = .005) and 39.1% of duplication carriers did not graduate high school (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.27-2.8; P = 1.6e-03). Evidence for an association between rare CNVs and lower educational attainment was supported by analyses of cohorts of adults from Italy and the United States and adolescents from the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Known pathogenic CNVs in unselected, but assumed to be healthy, adult populations may be associated with unrecognized clinical sequelae. Additionally, individually rare but collectively common intermediate-size CNVs may be negatively associated with educational attainment. Replication of these findings in additional population groups is warranted given the potential implications of this observation for genomics research, clinical care, and public health.