Menarche, menopause, and breast cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis, including 118 964 women with breast cancer from 117 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Menarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected women. METHODS: Individual data from 117 epidemiological studies, including 118 964 women with invasive breast cancer and 306 091 without the disease, none of whom had used menopausal hormone therapy, were included in the analyses. We calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) associated with menarche and menopause for breast cancer overall, and by tumour histology and by oestrogen receptor expression. FINDINGS: Breast cancer risk increased by a factor of 1·050 (95% CI 1·044-1·057; p<0·0001) for every year younger at menarche, and independently by a smaller amount (1·029, 1·025-1·032; p<0·0001), for every year older at menopause. Premenopausal women had a greater risk of breast cancer than postmenopausal women of an identical age (RR at age 45-54 years 1·43, 1·33-1·52, p<0·001). All three of these associations were attenuated by increasing adiposity among postmenopausal women, but did not vary materially by women's year of birth, ethnic origin, childbearing history, smoking, alcohol consumption, or hormonal contraceptive use. All three associations were stronger for lobular than for ductal tumours (p<0·006 for each comparison). The effect of menopause in women of an identical age and trends by age at menopause were stronger for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease (p<0·01 for both comparisons). INTERPRETATION: The effects of menarche and menopause on breast cancer risk might not be acting merely by lengthening women's total number of reproductive years. Endogenous ovarian hormones are more relevant for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease and for lobular than for ductal tumours. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Denosumab for prevention of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

BACKGROUND: Denosumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody to the receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappaB ligand (RANKL) that blocks its binding to RANK, inhibiting the development and activity of osteoclasts, decreasing bone resorption, and increasing bone density. Given its unique actions, denosumab may be useful in the treatment of osteoporosis. METHODS: We enrolled 7868 women between the ages of 60 and 90 years who had a bone mineral density T score of less than -2.5 but not less than -4.0 at the lumbar spine or total hip. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive either 60 mg of denosumab or placebo subcutaneously every 6 months for 36 months. The primary end point was new vertebral fracture. Secondary end points included nonvertebral and hip fractures. RESULTS: As compared with placebo, denosumab reduced the risk of new radiographic vertebral fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 2.3% in the denosumab group, versus 7.2% in the placebo group (risk ratio, 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.41; P<0.001)--a relative decrease of 68%. Denosumab reduced the risk of hip fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 0.7% in the denosumab group, versus 1.2% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.97; P=0.04)--a relative decrease of 40%. Denosumab also reduced the risk of nonvertebral fracture, with a cumulative incidence of 6.5% in the denosumab group, versus 8.0% in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01)--a relative decrease of 20%. There was no increase in the risk of cancer, infection, cardiovascular disease, delayed fracture healing, or hypocalcemia, and there were no cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw and no adverse reactions to the injection of denosumab. CONCLUSIONS: Denosumab given subcutaneously twice yearly for 36 months was associated with a reduction in the risk of vertebral, nonvertebral, and hip fractures in women with osteoporosis. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00089791.)

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel and fracture risk assessment: an updated meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis of prospective studies shows that quantitative ultrasound of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different types of fracture with similar performance across different devices and in elderly men and women. These predictions are independent of the risk estimates from hip DXA measures.Introduction Clinical utilisation of heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) depends on its power to predict clinical fractures. This is particularly important in settings that have no access to DXA-derived bone density measurements. We aimed to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures using a meta-analysis approach.Methods We conducted an inverse variance random effects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound [SOS], stiffness index [SI], and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results Twenty-one studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included in the meta-analysis with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99) and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with similar performance (meta-regression p values > 0.05 for difference of devices). QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip BMD showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA = 1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research is needed for more widespread utilisation of the heel QUS in clinical settings across the world.

Health-risk behaviors and quality of life among young men.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and other health-risk behaviors and quality of life (QOL) among young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5,306 young Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Associations between seven distinct self-reported health-risk behaviors (risky single-occasion drinking; volume drinking; cigarette smoking; cannabis use; use of any other illicit drugs; sexual intercourse without a condom; low physical activity) were assessed via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between each particular health-risk behavior and either physical or mental QOL (assessed with the SF-12v2) while adjusting for socio-demographic variables and the presence of all other health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Most health-risk behaviors co-occurred. However, low physical activity was not or negatively related to other health-risk behaviors. Almost all health-risk behaviors were associated with a greater likelihood of compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom (not associated with both physical and mental QOL) and frequent risky single-occasion drinking (not related to mental QOL after adjusting for the presence of other health-risk behaviors; positively associated with physical QOL) differed from this pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Health-risk behaviors are mostly associated with compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom and frequent risky single-occasion drinking differ from this pattern and are therefore possibly particularly difficult to change relative to other health-risk behaviors.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Trends in drug consumption and risk of transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus among injecting drug users in Switzerland, 1993-2006

As a part of the HIV behavioural surveillance system in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000 and 2006 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation in Switzerland. Data were collected in each LTF over five consecutive days, using a questionnaire that was partly completed by an interviewer and partly self administered. The questionnaire was structured around three topics: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, health and risk/preventive behaviour. Analysis was restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDUs). Between 1993 and 2006, the median age of IDUs rose by 10 years. IDUs are severely marginalised and their social situation has improved little. The borrowing of used injection equipment (syringe or needle already used by other person) in the last six months decreased (16.5% in 1993, 8.9% in 2006) but stayed stable at around 10% over the past three surveys. Other risk behaviour, such as sharing spoons, cotton or water, was reported more frequently, although also showed a decreasing trend. The reported prevalence of HIV remained fairly stable at around 10% between 1993 and 2006; reported levels of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence were high (56.4% in 2006). In conclusion, the overall decrease in the practice of injection has reduced the potential for transmission of infections. However as HCV prevalence is high this is of particular concern, as the current behaviour of IDUs indicates a potential for further spreading of the infection. Another noteworthy trend is the significant decrease in condom use in the case of paid sex.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Catastrophic medical expenditure risk

Medical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Malaysia. Exposure to risk is generally higher for households that have less recourse to self-insurance, lower incomes, wealth and education, and suffer from chronic illness.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease? An assessment of different definitions.

BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the determinants and trends of the prevalence of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and trends of low RF profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in 1984-1986 (N=3300), 1988-1989 (N=3331), 1992-1993 (N=3133) and 2003-2006 (N=6170) and restricted to age group 35-75 years. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used to assess determinants, while two definitions were used to assess trends. RESULTS: Prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used. This prevalence was higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease. Using one definition, the prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1-4.5) in 1984-1986 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-2006; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: Switzerland is characterized by a high and increasing prevalence of low RF profile within the age group 35 to 75, irrespective of the criteria used. This high prevalence might partly explain the low and decreasing trend in cardiovascular mortality rates.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Inferring ultraviolet anatomical exposure patterns while distinguishing the relative contribution of radiation components

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors, but individual exposure data remain scarce. While ground UV irradiance is monitored via different techniques, it is difficult to translate such observations into human UV exposure or dose because of confounding factors. A multi-disciplinary collaboration developed a model predicting the dose and distribution of UV exposure on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a simulation tool that estimates solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by various body locations is computed for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation separately. Dosimetric measurements obtained in field conditions were used to assess the model performance. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately with a symmetric mean absolute percentage error of 13% and half of the predictions within 17% range of the measurements. Using this tool, solar UV exposure patterns were investigated with respect to the relative contribution of the direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. Exposure doses for various body parts and exposure scenarios of a standing individual were assessed using erythemally-weighted UV ground irradiance data measured in 2009 at Payerne, Switzerland as input. For most anatomical sites, mean daily doses were high (typically 6.2-14.6 Standard Erythemal Dose, SED) and exceeded recommended exposure values. Direct exposure was important during specific periods (e. g. midday during summer), but contributed moderately to the annual dose, ranging from 15 to 24% for vertical and horizontal body parts, respectively. Diffuse irradiation explained about 80% of the cumulative annual exposure dose.

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Who is at low risk for cardiovascular disease?: an assessment of different definitions

Purpose: to assess the prevalence and trends of low cardiovascular risk factor (RF) profile in the Swiss population according to different definitions. Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study of 6170 subjects (3241 women) aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Trends were assessed using data from the Swiss MONICA population surveys conducted in 1984-6 (N = 3300), 1988-9 (N = 3331) and 1992-3 (N = 3133) and restricted to the same age group. Seven different definitions of low RF profile were used. Results: prevalence of low RF profile varied between 6.5% (95% confidence interval: 5.9-7.1) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5) depending on the definition used (see fig. 1). The prevalence was inversely related to the number of criteria used and higher than in other countries. Irrespective of the definition used, the prevalence of low RF profile was higher in women and in physically active participants, and decreased with increasing age or in the presence of a family history of cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of low RF profile increased from 3.8% (3.1- 4.5) in 1984-6 to 6.7% (6.1-7.3) in 2003-6; using another definition, the results were 5.9% (5.1-6.8) and 9.7% (9.0-10.5), respectively (see fig. 2). Conclusion: the prevalence of low RF profile varies according to the criteria used; this prevalence is relatively high and increasing in the Swiss population, which might partly explain the low and decreasing trend in cardiovascular mortality rates.

Cancer risk in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: associations with immunodeficiency, smoking, and highly active antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk for several cancers, but the influences of behavioral risk factors, such as smoking and intravenous drug use, and highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on cancer risk are not clear. METHODS: Patient records were linked between the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and Swiss cantonal cancer registries. Observed and expected numbers of incident cancers were assessed in 7304 persons infected with HIV followed for 28,836 person-years. Relative risks for cancer compared with those for the general population were determined by estimating cancer registry-, sex-, age-, and period-standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). RESULTS: Highly elevated SIRs were confirmed in persons infected with HIV for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) (SIR = 192, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 170 to 217) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 76.4, 95% CI = 66.5 to 87.4). Statistically significantly elevated SIRs were also observed for anal cancer (SIR = 33.4, 95% CI = 10.5 to 78.6); Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 17.3, 95% CI = 10.2 to 27.4); cancers of the cervix (SIR = 8.0, 95% CI = 2.9 to 17.4); liver (SIR = 7.0, 95% CI = 2.2 to 16.5); lip, mouth, and pharynx (SIR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1 to 7.4); trachea, lung, and bronchus (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.7 to 5.4); and skin, nonmelanomatous (SIR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.2 to 4.5). In HAART users, SIRs for KS (SIR = 25.3, 95% CI = 10.8 to 50.1) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 24.2, 95% CI = 15.0 to 37.1) were lower than those for nonusers (KS SIR = 239, 95% CI = 211 to 270; non-Hodgkin lymphoma SIR = 99.3, 95% CI = 85.8 to 114). Among HAART users, however, the SIR (although not absolute numbers) for Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR = 36.2, 95% CI = 16.4 to 68.9) was comparable to that for KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No clear impact of HAART on SIRs emerged for cervical cancer or non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. Cancers of the lung, lip, mouth, or pharynx were not observed among nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: In persons infected with HIV, HAART use may prevent most excess risk of KS and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, but not that of Hodgkin lymphoma and other non-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining cancers. No cancers of the lip, mouth, pharynx, or lung were observed in nonsmokers.