The 2005 Pakistan earthquake revisited: Methods for integrated landslide assessment

Five years after the 2005 Pakistan earthquake that triggered multiple mass movements, landslides continue to pose a threat to the population of Azad Kashmir, especially during heavy monsoon rains. The thousands of landslides that were triggered by the 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005 were not just due to a natural phenomenon but largely induced by human activities, namely, road building, grazing, and deforestation. The damage caused by the landslides in the study area (381 km2) is estimated at 3.6 times the annual public works budget of Azad Kashmir for 2005 of US$ 1 million. In addition to human suffering, this cost constitutes a significant economic setback to the region that could have been reduced through improved land use and risk management. This article describes interdisciplinary research conducted 18 months after the earthquake to provide a more systemic approach to understanding risks posed by landslides, including the physical, environmental, and human contexts. The goal of this research is twofold: to present empirical data on the social, geological, and environmental contexts in which widespread landslides occurred following the 2005 earthquake; and, second, to describe straightforward methods that can be used for integrated landslide risk assessments in data-poor environments. The article analyzes limitations of the methodologies and challenges for conducting interdisciplinary research that integrates both social and physical data. This research concludes that reducing landslide risk is ultimately a management issue, based in land use decisions and governance.

Brief alcohol intervention and alcohol assessment do not influence alcohol use in injured patients treated in the emergency department: a randomized controlled clinical trial.

AIMS: To evaluate the effectiveness of brief alcohol intervention (BAI) in reducing alcohol use among hazardous drinkers treated in the emergency department (ED) after an injury; in addition it tests whether assessment of alcohol use without BAI is sufficient to reduce hazardous drinking. DESIGN: Randomized controlled clinical trial with 12-month follow-up conducted between January 2003 and June 2005. SETTING: Urban academic emergency department (ED) of the Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5136 consecutive patients attending ED after an injury completed a seven-item general and a three-item alcohol screen and 1472 (28.7%) were positive for hazardous drinking according to the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Addiction definition; of these 987 (67.1%) were randomized into a BAI group (n = 310) or a control group with screening and assessment (n = 342) or a control group with screening only (n = 335) and then a total of 770 patients (78.0%) completed the 12-month follow-up procedures. INTERVENTION: A single 10-15-minute session of standardized BAI conducted by a trained research assistant. MEASUREMENTS: Percentage of participants who have changed to low-risk drinking at follow-up. FINDINGS: Data obtained at 12 months indicated that similar proportions were low-risk drinkers in BAI versus control groups with and without assessment (35.6%, 34.0%, 37.0%, respectively, P = 0.71). Data also indicated similar reductions in drinking frequency, quantity, binge drinking frequency and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores across groups. All groups reported similar numbers of days hospitalized and numbers of medical consults in the last 12 months. A model including age groups, gender, AUDIT and injury severity scores indicated that BAI had no influence on the main alcohol use outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the evidence that a 10-15-minute BAI does not decrease alcohol use and health resource utilization in hazardous drinkers treated in the ED, and demonstrates that commonly found decreases in hazardous alcohol use in control groups cannot be attributed to the baseline alcohol assessment.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. We reviewed systematically data on smoking cessation rates from controlled trials that used biomedical risk assessment and feedback. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched he Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (1966 to 2004), and EMBASE (1980 to 2004). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. MAIN RESULTS: From 4049 retrieved references, we selected 170 for full text assessment. We retained eight trials for data extraction and analysis. One of the eight used CO alone and CO + Genetic Susceptibility as two different intervention groups, giving rise to three possible comparisons. Three of the trials isolated the effect of exhaled CO on smoking cessation rates resulting in the following odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.73 (0.38 to 1.39), 0.93 (0.62 to 1.41), and 1.18 (0.84 to 1.64). Combining CO measurement with genetic susceptibility gave an OR of 0.58 (0.29 to 1.19). Exhaled CO measurement and spirometry were used together in three trials, resulting in the following ORs (95% CI): 0.6 (0.25 to 1.46), 2.45 (0.73 to 8.25), and 3.50 (0.88 to 13.92). Spirometry results alone were used in one other trial with an OR of 1.21 (0.60 to 2.42).Two trials used other motivational feedback measures, with an OR of 0.80 (0.39 to 1.65) for genetic susceptibility to lung cancer alone, and 3.15 (1.06 to 9.31) for ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries performed in light smokers (average 10 to 12 cigarettes a day). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Due to the scarcity of evidence of sufficient quality, we can make no definitive statements about the effectiveness of biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation. Current evidence of lower quality does not however support the hypothesis that biomedical risk assessment increases smoking cessation in comparison with standard treatment. Only two studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow pooling of data and meta-analysis.

Ambulatory assessment of 3D ground reaction force using plantar pressure distribution.

This study aimed to use the plantar pressure insole for estimating the three-dimensional ground reaction force (GRF) as well as the frictional torque (T(F)) during walking. Eleven subjects, six healthy and five patients with ankle disease participated in the study while wearing pressure insoles during several walking trials on a force-plate. The plantar pressure distribution was analyzed and 10 principal components of 24 regional pressure values with the stance time percentage (STP) were considered for GRF and T(F) estimation. Both linear and non-linear approximators were used for estimating the GRF and T(F) based on two learning strategies using intra-subject and inter-subjects data. The RMS error and the correlation coefficient between the approximators and the actual patterns obtained from force-plate were calculated. Our results showed better performance for non-linear approximation especially when the STP was considered as input. The least errors were observed for vertical force (4%) and anterior-posterior force (7.3%), while the medial-lateral force (11.3%) and frictional torque (14.7%) had higher errors. The result obtained for the patients showed higher error; nevertheless, when the data of the same patient were used for learning, the results were improved and in general slight differences with healthy subjects were observed. In conclusion, this study showed that ambulatory pressure insole with data normalization, an optimal choice of inputs and a well-trained nonlinear mapping function can estimate efficiently the three-dimensional ground reaction force and frictional torque in consecutive gait cycle without requiring a force-plate.

Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Integrated application of geochemical and geophysical methods for hydrogeological impact assessment for tunneling in fractured rock

The interaction of tunneling with groundwater is a problem both from an environmental and an engineering point of view. In fact, tunnel drilling may cause a drawdown of piezometric levels and water inflows into tunnels that may cause problems during excavation of the tunnel. While the influence of tunneling on the regional groundwater systems may be adequately predicted in porous media using analytical solutions, such an approach is difficult to apply in fractured rocks. Numerical solutions are preferable and various conceptual approaches have been proposed to describe and model groundwater flow through fractured rock masses, ranging from equivalent continuum models to discrete fracture network simulation models. However, their application needs many preliminary investigations on the behavior of the groundwater system based on hydrochemical and structural data. To study large scale flow systems in fractured rocks of mountainous terrains, a comprehensive study was conducted in southern Switzerland, using as case studies two infrastructures actually under construction: (i) the Monte Ceneri base railway tunnel (Ticino), and the (ii) San Fedele highway tunnel (Roveredo, Graubiinden). The chosen approach in this study combines the temporal and spatial variation of geochemical and geophysical measurements. About 60 localities from both surface and underlying tunnels were temporarily and spatially monitored during more than one year. At first, the project was focused on the collection of hydrochemical and structural data. A number of springs, selected in the area surrounding the infrastructures, were monitored for discharge, electric conductivity, pH, and temperature. Water samples (springs, tunnel inflows and rains) were taken for isotopic analysis; in particular the stable isotope composition (δ2Η, δ180 values) can reflect the origin of the water, because of spatial (recharge altitude, topography, etc.) and temporal (seasonal) effects on precipitation which in turn strongly influence the isotopic composition of groundwater. Tunnel inflows in the accessible parts of the tunnels were also sampled and, if possible, monitored with time. Noble-gas concentrations and their isotope ratios were used in selected locations to better understand the origin and the circulation of the groundwater. In addition, electrical resistivity and VLF-type electromagnetic surveys were performed to identify water bearing fractures and/or weathered areas that could be intersected at depth during tunnel construction. The main goal of this work was to demonstrate that these hydrogeological data and geophysical methods, combined with structural and hydrogeological information, can be successfully used in order to develop hydrogeological conceptual models of the groundwater flow in regions to be exploited for tunnels. The main results of the project are: (i) to have successfully tested the application of electrical resistivity and VLF-electromagnetic surveys to asses water-bearing zones during tunnel drilling; (ii) to have verified the usefulness of noble gas, major ion and stable isotope compositions as proxies for the detection of faults and to understand the origin of the groundwater and its flow regimes (direct rain water infiltration or groundwater of long residence time); and (iii) to have convincingly tested the combined application of a geochemical and geophysical approach to assess and predict the vulnerability of springs to tunnel drilling. - L'interférence entre eaux souterraines et des tunnels pose des problèmes environnementaux et de génie civile. En fait, la construction d'un tunnel peut faire abaisser le niveau des nappes piézométriques et faire infiltrer de l'eau dans le tunnel et ainsi créer des problème pendant l'excavation. Alors que l'influence de la construction d'un tunnel sur la circulation régionale de l'eau souterraine dans des milieux poreux peut être prédite relativement facilement par des solution analytiques de modèles, ceci devient difficile dans des milieux fissurés. Dans ce cas-là, des solutions numériques sont préférables et plusieurs approches conceptuelles ont été proposées pour décrire et modéliser la circulation d'eau souterraine à travers les roches fissurées, en allant de modèles d'équivalence continue à des modèles de simulation de réseaux de fissures discrètes. Par contre, leur application demande des investigations importantes concernant le comportement du système d'eau souterraine basées sur des données hydrochimiques et structurales. Dans le but d'étudier des grands systèmes de circulation d'eau souterraine dans une région de montagnes, une étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction: (i) Le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri (Tessin) et (ii) le tunnel routière de San Fedele (Roveredo, Grisons). L'approche choisie dans cette étude est la combinaison de variations temporelles et spatiales des mesures géochimiques et géophysiques. Environs 60 localités situées à la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels soujacents ont été suiviès du point de vue temporel et spatial pendant plus de un an. Dans un premier temps le projet se focalisait sur la collecte de données hydrochimiques et structurales. Un certain nombre de sources, sélectionnées dans les environs des infrastructures étudiées ont été suivies pour le débit, la conductivité électrique, le pH et la température. De l'eau (sources, infiltration d'eau de tunnel et pluie) a été échantillonnés pour des analyses isotopiques; ce sont surtout les isotopes stables (δ2Η, δ180) qui peuvent indiquer l'origine d'une eaux, à cause de la dépendance d'effets spatiaux (altitude de recharge, topographie etc.) ainsi que temporels (saisonaux) sur les précipitations météoriques , qui de suite influencent ainsi la composition isotopique de l'eau souterraine. Les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels dans les parties accessibles ont également été échantillonnées et si possible suivies au cours du temps. La concentration de gaz nobles et leurs rapports isotopiques ont également été utilisées pour quelques localités pour mieux comprendre l'origine et la circulation de l'eau souterraine. En plus, des campagnes de mesures de la résistivité électrique et électromagnétique de type VLF ont été menées afin d'identifier des zone de fractures ou d'altération qui pourraient interférer avec les tunnels en profondeur pendant la construction. Le but principal de cette étude était de démontrer que ces données hydrogéologiques et géophysiques peuvent être utilisées avec succès pour développer des modèles hydrogéologiques conceptionels de tunnels. Les résultats principaux de ce travail sont : i) d'avoir testé avec succès l'application de méthodes de la tomographie électrique et des campagnes de mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF afin de trouver des zones riches en eau pendant l'excavation d'un tunnel ; ii) d'avoir prouvé l'utilité des gaz nobles, des analyses ioniques et d'isotopes stables pour déterminer l'origine de l'eau infiltrée (de la pluie par le haut ou ascendant de l'eau remontant des profondeurs) et leur flux et pour déterminer la position de failles ; et iii) d'avoir testé d'une manière convainquant l'application combinée de méthodes géochimiques et géophysiques pour juger et prédire la vulnérabilité de sources lors de la construction de tunnels. - L'interazione dei tunnel con il circuito idrico sotterraneo costituisce un problema sia dal punto di vista ambientale che ingegneristico. Lo scavo di un tunnel puô infatti causare abbassamenti dei livelli piezometrici, inoltre le venute d'acqua in galleria sono un notevole problema sia in fase costruttiva che di esercizio. Nel caso di acquiferi in materiale sciolto, l'influenza dello scavo di un tunnel sul circuito idrico sotterraneo, in genere, puô essere adeguatamente predetta attraverso l'applicazione di soluzioni analitiche; al contrario un approccio di questo tipo appare inadeguato nel caso di scavo in roccia. Per gli ammassi rocciosi fratturati sono piuttosto preferibili soluzioni numeriche e, a tal proposito, sono stati proposti diversi approcci concettuali; nella fattispecie l'ammasso roccioso puô essere modellato come un mezzo discreto ο continuo équivalente. Tuttavia, una corretta applicazione di qualsiasi modello numerico richiede necessariamente indagini preliminari sul comportamento del sistema idrico sotterraneo basate su dati idrogeochimici e geologico strutturali. Per approfondire il tema dell'idrogeologia in ammassi rocciosi fratturati tipici di ambienti montani, è stato condotto uno studio multidisciplinare nel sud della Svizzera sfruttando come casi studio due infrastrutture attualmente in costruzione: (i) il tunnel di base del Monte Ceneri (canton Ticino) e (ii) il tunnel autostradale di San Fedele (Roveredo, canton Grigioni). L'approccio di studio scelto ha cercato di integrare misure idrogeochimiche sulla qualité e quantité delle acque e indagini geofisiche. Nella fattispecie sono state campionate le acque in circa 60 punti spazialmente distribuiti sia in superficie che in sotterraneo; laddove possibile il monitoraggio si è temporalmente prolungato per più di un anno. In una prima fase, il progetto di ricerca si è concentrato sull'acquisizione dati. Diverse sorgenti, selezionate nelle aree di possibile influenza attorno allé infrastrutture esaminate, sono state monitorate per quel che concerne i parametri fisico-chimici: portata, conduttività elettrica, pH e temperatura. Campioni d'acqua sono stati prelevati mensilmente su sorgenti, venute d'acqua e precipitazioni, per analisi isotopiche; nella fattispecie, la composizione in isotopi stabili (δ2Η, δ180) tende a riflettere l'origine delle acque, in quanto, variazioni sia spaziali (altitudine di ricarica, topografia, etc.) che temporali (variazioni stagionali) della composizione isotopica delle precipitazioni influenzano anche le acque sotterranee. Laddove possibile, sono state campionate le venute d'acqua in galleria sia puntualmente che al variare del tempo. Le concentrazioni dei gas nobili disciolti nell'acqua e i loro rapporti isotopici sono stati altresi utilizzati in alcuni casi specifici per meglio spiegare l'origine delle acque e le tipologie di circuiti idrici sotterranei. Inoltre, diverse indagini geofisiche di resistività elettrica ed elettromagnetiche a bassissima frequenza (VLF) sono state condotte al fine di individuare le acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso. Principale obiettivo di questo lavoro è stato dimostrare come misure idrogeochimiche ed indagini geofisiche possano essere integrate alio scopo di sviluppare opportuni modelli idrogeologici concettuali utili per lo scavo di opere sotterranee. I principali risultati ottenuti al termine di questa ricerca sono stati: (i) aver testato con successo indagini geofisiche (ERT e VLF-EM) per l'individuazione di acque sotterranee circolanti attraverso fratture dell'ammasso roccioso e che possano essere causa di venute d'acqua in galleria durante lo scavo di tunnel; (ii) aver provato l'utilità di analisi su gas nobili, ioni maggiori e isotopi stabili per l'individuazione di faglie e per comprendere l'origine delle acque sotterranee (acque di recente infiltrazione ο provenienti da circolazioni profonde); (iii) aver testato in maniera convincente l'integrazione delle indagini geofisiche e di misure geochimiche per la valutazione della vulnérabilité delle sorgenti durante lo scavo di nuovi tunnel. - "La NLFA (Nouvelle Ligne Ferroviaire à travers les Alpes) axe du Saint-Gothard est le plus important projet de construction de Suisse. En bâtissant la nouvelle ligne du Saint-Gothard, la Suisse réalise un des plus grands projets de protection de l'environnement d'Europe". Cette phrase, qu'on lit comme présentation du projet Alptransit est particulièrement éloquente pour expliquer l'utilité des nouvelles lignes ferroviaires transeuropéens pour le développement durable. Toutefois, comme toutes grandes infrastructures, la construction de nouveaux tunnels ont des impacts inévitables sur l'environnement. En particulier, le possible drainage des eaux souterraines réalisées par le tunnel peut provoquer un abaissement du niveau des nappes piézométriques. De plus, l'écoulement de l'eau à l'intérieur du tunnel, conduit souvent à des problèmes d'ingénierie. Par exemple, d'importantes infiltrations d'eau dans le tunnel peuvent compliquer les phases d'excavation, provoquant un retard dans l'avancement et dans le pire des cas, peuvent mettre en danger la sécurité des travailleurs. Enfin, l'infiltration d'eau peut être un gros problème pendant le fonctionnement du tunnel. Du point de vue de la science, avoir accès à des infrastructures souterraines représente une occasion unique d'obtenir des informations géologiques en profondeur et pour échantillonner des eaux autrement inaccessibles. Dans ce travail, nous avons utilisé une approche pluridisciplinaire qui intègre des mesures d'étude hydrogéochimiques effectués sur les eaux de surface et des investigations géophysiques indirects, tels que la tomographic de résistivité électrique (TRE) et les mesures électromagnétiques de type VLF. L'étude complète a été fait en Suisse italienne, basée sur deux grandes infrastructures actuellement en construction, qui sont le tunnel ferroviaire de base du Monte Ceneri, une partie du susmentionné projet Alptransit, situé entièrement dans le canton Tessin, et le tunnel routière de San Fedele, situé a Roveredo dans le canton des Grisons. Le principal objectif était de montrer comment il était possible d'intégrer les deux approches, géophysiques et géochimiques, afin de répondre à la question de ce que pourraient être les effets possibles dû au drainage causés par les travaux souterrains. L'accès aux galeries ci-dessus a permis une validation adéquate des enquêtes menées confirmant, dans chaque cas, les hypothèses proposées. A cette fin, nous avons fait environ 50 profils géophysiques (28 imageries électrique bidimensionnels et 23 électromagnétiques) dans les zones de possible influence par le tunnel, dans le but d'identifier les fractures et les discontinuités dans lesquelles l'eau souterraine peut circuler. De plus, des eaux ont été échantillonnés dans 60 localités situées la surface ainsi que dans les tunnels subjacents, le suivi mensuelle a duré plus d'un an. Nous avons mesurés tous les principaux paramètres physiques et chimiques: débit, conductivité électrique, pH et température. De plus, des échantillons d'eaux ont été prélevés pour l'analyse mensuelle des isotopes stables de l'hydrogène et de l'oxygène (δ2Η, δ180). Avec ces analyses, ainsi que par la mesure des concentrations des gaz rares dissous dans les eaux et de leurs rapports isotopiques que nous avons effectués dans certains cas spécifiques, il était possible d'expliquer l'origine des différents eaux souterraines, les divers modes de recharge des nappes souterraines, la présence de possible phénomènes de mélange et, en général, de mieux expliquer les circulations d'eaux dans le sous-sol. Le travail, même en constituant qu'une réponse partielle à une question très complexe, a permis d'atteindre certains importants objectifs. D'abord, nous avons testé avec succès l'applicabilité des méthodes géophysiques indirectes (TRE et électromagnétiques de type VLF) pour prédire la présence d'eaux souterraines dans le sous-sol des massifs rocheux. De plus, nous avons démontré l'utilité de l'analyse des gaz rares, des isotopes stables et de l'analyses des ions majeurs pour la détection de failles et pour comprendre l'origine des eaux souterraines (eau de pluie par le haut ou eau remontant des profondeurs). En conclusion, avec cette recherche, on a montré que l'intégration des ces informations (géophysiques et géochimiques) permet le développement de modèles conceptuels appropriés, qui permettant d'expliquer comment l'eau souterraine circule. Ces modèles permettent de prévoir les infiltrations d'eau dans les tunnels et de prédire la vulnérabilité de sources et des autres ressources en eau lors de construction de tunnels.

Multiscale assessment of plant diversity in wooded pastures of the Jura mountains

Résumé La diminution de la biodiversité, à toutes les échelles spatiales et sur l'ensemble de la planète, compte parmi les problèmes les plus préoccupants de notre époque. En terme de conservation, il est aujourd'hui primordial de mieux comprendre les mécanismes qui créent et maintiennent la biodiversité dans les écosystèmes naturels ou anthropiques. La présente étude a pour principal objectif d'améliorer notre compréhension des patrons de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes sous jacents, dans un écosystème complexe, riche en espèces et à forte valeur patrimoniale, les pâturages boisés jurassiens. Structure et échelle spatiales sont progressivement reconnues comme des dimensions incontournables dans l'étude des patrons de biodiversité. De plus, ces deux éléments jouent un rôle central dans plusieurs théories écologiques. Toutefois, peu d'hypothèses issues de simulations ou d'études théoriques concernant le lien entre structure spatiale du paysage et biodiversité ont été testées de façon empirique. De même, l'influence des différentes composantes de l'échelle spatiale sur les patrons de biodiversité est méconnue. Cette étude vise donc à tester quelques-unes de ces hypothèses et à explorer les patrons spatiaux de biodiversité dans un contexte multi-échelle, pour différentes mesures de biodiversité (richesse et composition en espèces) à l'aide de données de terrain. Ces données ont été collectées selon un plan d'échantillonnage hiérarchique. Dans un premier temps, nous avons testé l'hypothèse élémentaire selon laquelle la richesse spécifique (le nombre d'espèces sur une surface donnée) est liée à l'hétérogénéité environnementale quelque soit l'échelle. Nous avons décomposé l'hétérogénéité environnementale en deux parties, la variabilité des conditions environnementales et sa configuration spatiale. Nous avons montré que, en général, la richesse spécifique augmentait avec l'hétérogénéité de l'environnement : elle augmentait avec le nombre de types d'habitats et diminuait avec l'agrégation spatiale de ces habitats. Ces effets ont été observés à toutes les échelles mais leur nature variait en fonction de l'échelle, suggérant une modification des mécanismes. Dans un deuxième temps, la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces a été décomposée en relation avec 20 variables environnementales et 11 traits d'espèces. Nous avons utilisé la technique de partition de la variation et un descripteur spatial, récemment développé, donnant accès à une large gamme d'échelles spatiales. Nos résultats ont montré que la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces végétales était principalement liée à la topographie, aux échelles les plus grossières, et à la disponibilité en lumière, aux échelles les plus fines. La fraction non-environnementale de la variation spatiale de la composition spécifique avait une relation complexe avec plusieurs traits d'espèces suggérant un lien avec des processus biologiques tels que la dispersion, dépendant de l'échelle spatiale. Dans un dernier temps, nous avons testé, à plusieurs échelles spatiales, les relations entre trois composantes de la biodiversité : la richesse spécifique totale d'un échantillon (diversité gamma), la richesse spécifique moyenne (diversité alpha), mesurée sur des sous-échantillons, et les différences de composition spécifique entre les sous-échantillons (diversité beta). Les relations deux à deux entre les diversités alpha, beta et gamma ne suivaient pas les relations attendues, tout du moins à certaines échelles spatiales. Plusieurs de ces relations étaient fortement dépendantes de l'échelle. Nos résultats ont mis en évidence l'importance du rapport d'échelle (rapport entre la taille de l'échantillon et du sous-échantillon) lors de l'étude des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité. Ainsi, cette étude offre un nouvel aperçu des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes potentiels permettant la coexistence des espèces. Nos résultats suggèrent que les patrons de biodiversité ne peuvent être expliqués par une seule théorie, mais plutôt par une combinaison de théories. Ils ont également mis en évidence le rôle essentiel joué par la structure spatiale dans la détermination de la biodiversité, quelque soit le composant de la biodiversité considéré. Enfin, cette étude souligne l'importance de prendre en compte plusieurs échelles spatiales et différents constituants de l'échelle spatiale pour toute étude relative à la diversité spécifique. Abstract The world-wide loss of biodiversity at all scales has become a matter of urgent concern, and improving our understanding of local drivers of biodiversity in natural and anthropogenic ecosystems is now crucial for conservation. The main objective of this study was to further our comprehension of the driving forces controlling biodiversity patterns in a complex and diverse ecosystem of high conservation value, wooded pastures. Spatial pattern and scale are central to several ecological theories, and it is increasingly recognized that they must be taken -into consideration when studying biodiversity patterns. However, few hypotheses developed from simulations or theoretical studies have been tested using field data, and the evolution of biodiversity patterns with different scale components remains largely unknown. We test several such hypotheses and explore spatial patterns of biodiversity in a multi-scale context and using different measures of biodiversity (species richness and composition), with field data. Data were collected using a hierarchical sampling design. We first tested the simple hypothesis that species richness, the number of species in a given area, is related to environmental heterogeneity at all scales. We decomposed environmental heterogeneity into two parts: the variability of environmental conditions and its spatial configuration. We showed that species richness generally increased with environmental heterogeneity: species richness increased with increasing number of habitat types and with decreasing spatial aggregation of those habitats. Effects occurred at all scales but the nature of the effect changed with scale, suggesting a change in underlying mechanisms. We then decomposed the spatial structure of species composition in relation to environmental variables and species traits using variation partitioning and a recently developed spatial descriptor, allowing us to capture a wide range of spatial scales. We showed that the spatial structure of plant species composition was related to topography at the coarsest scales and insolation at finer scales. The non-environmental fraction of the spatial variation in species composition had a complex relationship with several species traits, suggesting a scale-dependent link to biological processes, particularly dispersal. Finally, we tested, at different spatial scales, the relationships between different components of biodiversity: total sample species richness (gamma diversity), mean species .richness (alpha diversity), measured in nested subsamples, and differences in species composition between subsamples (beta diversity). The pairwise relationships between alpha, beta and gamma diversity did not follow the expected patterns, at least at certain scales. Our result indicated a strong scale-dependency of several relationships, and highlighted the importance of the scale ratio when studying biodiversity patterns. Thus, our results bring new insights on the spatial patterns of biodiversity and the possible mechanisms allowing species coexistence. They suggest that biodiversity patterns cannot be explained by any single theory proposed in the literature, but a combination of theories is sufficient. Spatial structure plays a crucial role for all components of biodiversity. Results emphasize the importance of considering multiple spatial scales and multiple scale components when studying species diversity.

The Learning Affect Monitor (LAM) - A computer-based system integrating quantitative and qualitative assessment of affective states in daily life.

The Learning Affect Monitor (LAM) is a new computer-based assessment system integrating basic dimensional evaluation and discrete description of affective states in daily life, based on an autonomous adapting system. Subjects evaluate their affective states according to a tridimensional space (valence and activation circumplex as well as global intensity) and then qualify it using up to 30 adjective descriptors chosen from a list. The system gradually adapts to the user, enabling the affect descriptors it presents to be increasingly relevant. An initial study with 51 subjects, using a 1 week time-sampling with 8 to 10 randomized signals per day, produced n = 2,813 records with good reliability measures (e.g., response rate of 88.8%, mean split-half reliability of .86), user acceptance, and usability. Multilevel analyses show circadian and hebdomadal patterns, and significant individual and situational variance components of the basic dimension evaluations. Validity analyses indicate sound assignment of qualitative affect descriptors in the bidimensional semantic space according to the circumplex model of basic affect dimensions. The LAM assessment module can be implemented on different platforms (palm, desk, mobile phone) and provides very rapid and meaningful data collection, preserving complex and interindividually comparable information in the domain of emotion and well-being.

Randomized trial of a computerized coronary heart disease risk assessment tool in HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) can lead to important metabolic changes and increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Computerized clinical decision support systems have been advocated to improve the management of patients at risk for CHD but it is unclear whether such systems reduce patients' risk for CHD. METHODS: We conducted a cluster trial within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) of HIV-infected patients, aged 18 years or older, not pregnant and receiving cART for >3 months. We randomized 165 physicians to either guidelines for CHD risk factor management alone or guidelines plus CHD risk profiles. Risk profiles included the Framingham risk score, CHD drug prescriptions and CHD events based on biannual assessments, and were continuously updated by the SHCS data centre and integrated into patient charts by study nurses. Outcome measures were total cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: A total of 3,266 patients (80% of those eligible) had a final assessment of the primary outcome at least 12 months after the start of the trial. Mean (95% confidence interval) patient differences where physicians received CHD risk profiles and guidelines, rather than guidelines alone, were total cholesterol -0.02 mmol/l (-0.09-0.06), systolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.6-0.8), diastolic blood pressure -0.4 mmHg (-1.5-0.7) and Framingham 10-year risk score -0.2% (-0.5-0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Systemic computerized routine provision of CHD risk profiles in addition to guidelines does not significantly improve risk factors for CHD in patients on cART.

Acute respiratory syndrome after inhalation of waterproofing sprays: a posteriori exposure-response assessment in 102 cases

Waterproofing agents are widely used to protect leather and textiles in both domestic and occupational activities. An outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome following exposure to waterproofing sprays occurred during the winter 2002-2003 in Switzerland. About 180 cases were reported by the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre between October 2002 and March 2003, whereas fewer than 10 cases per year had been recorded previously. The reported cases involved three brands of sprays containing a common waterproofing mixture, that had undergone a formulation change in the months preceding the outbreak. A retrospective analysis was undertaken in collaboration with the Swiss Toxicological Information Centre and the Swiss Registries for Interstitial and Orphan Lung Diseases to clarify the circumstances and possible causes of the observed health effects. Individual exposure data were generated with questionnaires and experimental emission measurements. The collected data was used to conduct numeric simulation for 102 cases of exposure. A classical two-zone model was used to assess the aerosol dispersion in the near- and far-field during spraying. The resulting assessed dose and exposure levels obtained were spread on large scales, of several orders of magnitude. No dose-response relationship was found between exposure indicators and health effects indicators (perceived severity and clinical indicators). Weak relationships were found between unspecific inflammatory response indicators (leukocytes, C-reactive protein) and the maximal exposure concentration. The results obtained disclose a high interindividual response variability and suggest that some indirect mechanism(s) predominates in the respiratory disease occurrence. Furthermore, no threshold could be found to define a safe level of exposure. These findings suggest that the improvement of environmental exposure conditions during spraying alone does not constitute a sufficient measure to prevent future outbreaks of waterproofing spray toxicity. More efficient preventive measures are needed prior to the marketing and distribution of new waterproofing agents.

Lack of extended venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in high-risk patients undergoing major orthopaedic or major cancer surgery. Electronic Assessment of VTE Prophylaxis in High-Risk Surgical Patients at Discharge from Swiss Hospitals (ESSENTIAL).

Extended pharmacological venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis beyond discharge is recommended for patients undergoing high-risk surgery. We prospectively investigated prophylaxis in 1,046 consecutive patients undergoing major orthopaedic (70%) or major cancer surgery (30%) in 14 Swiss hospitals. Appropriate in-hospital prophylaxis was used in 1,003 (96%) patients. At discharge, 638 (61%) patients received prescription for extended pharmacological prophylaxis: 564 (77%) after orthopaedic surgery, and 74 (23%) after cancer surgery (p < 0.001). Patients with knee replacement (94%), hip replacement (81%), major trauma (80%), and curative arthroscopy (73%) had the highest prescription rates for extended VTE prophylaxis; the lowest rates were found in patients undergoing major surgery for thoracic (7%), gastrointestinal (19%), and hepatobiliary (33%) cancer. The median duration of prescribed extended prophylaxis was longer in patients with orthopaedic surgery (32 days, interquartile range 14-40 days) than in patients with cancer surgery (23 days, interquartile range 11-30 days; p<0.001). Among the 278 patients with an extended prophylaxis order after hip replacement, knee replacement, or hip fracture surgery, 120 (43%) received a prescription for at least 35 days, and among the 74 patients with an extended prophylaxis order after major cancer surgery, 20 (27%) received a prescription for at least 28 days. In conclusion, approximately one quarter of the patients with major orthopaedic surgery and more than three quarters of the patients with major cancer surgery did not receive prescription for extended VTE prophylaxis. Future effort should focus on the improvement of extended VTE prophylaxis, particularly in patients undergoing major cancer surgery.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic assessment of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients

RESUME : Valganciclovir (Valcyte®) is an orally administered ester prodrug of the standard anticytomegalovirus (CMV) drug ganciclovir. This drug enabled an important reduction of the burden of CMV morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant recipients. Prevention of CMV infection and treatment of CMV disease requires drug administration during many weeks. Oral drug administration is therefore convenient. Valganciclovir has been developed to overcome the poor oral availability of ganciclovir, which limits its concentration exposure after oral administration and thus its efficacy. This prodrug crosses efficiently the intestinal barrier, is then hydrolyzed into ganciclovir, providing exposure similar to intravenous ganciclovir. Valganciclovir is now preferred for the prophylaxis and treatment of CMV infection in solid organ transplant recipients. Nevertheless, adequate dosage adjustment is necessary to optimize its use, avoiding either insufficient or exaggerate exposure related to differences in its pharmacokinetic profile between patients. The main goal of this thesis was to better describe the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profile of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients, to assess their reproducibility and their predictability, and thus to evaluate the current recommendations for valganciclovir dosage adjustment and the potential contribution of routine therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to patients' management. A total of 437 ganciclovir plasma concentration data from 65 transplant patients (41 kidney, 12 lung, 10 heart and 2 liver recipients, 58 under oral valganciclovir prophylaxis, 8 under oral valganciclovir treatment and 2 under intravenous ganciclovir) were measured using a validated chromatographic method (HPLC) developed for this study. The results were analyzed by non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM). A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by GFR, with further differences between graft types and sex (CL/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient variability (CV%) of 26% and interoccasion variability of 12%. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg in males and 0.27 l/kg in females) with an interpatient variability of 20%. Residual intrapatient variability was 21 %. No significant drug interaction influenced GCV disposition. VGC prophylactic efficacy and tolerability were good, without detectable dependence on GCV profile. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of GCV profile after oral VGC in solid organ transplant recipients, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations such as documentation of appropriate exposure in patients with potentially compromised absorption, or lack of response to CMV disease treatment, or under renal replacement therapy. RESUME : Le valganciclovir (Valcyte®) est un promédicament oral du ganciclovir qui est un anti-infectieux de référence contre les infections à cytomegalovirus (CMV). Cet antiviral a permis de réduire les effets délétères de cette infection jusqu'ici responsable d'une importante morbidité et mortalité chez les transplantés d'organe. La prévention et le traitement de l'infection à CMV sont donc nécessaires mais requièrent l'administration d'un agent antiviral sur une longue période. Un médicament administré par voie orale représente donc un avantage évident. Le valganciclovir a été développé dans le but d'améliorer la faible absorption orale du ganciclovir, et donc son efficacité. Cet ester valylique du ganciclovir traverse plus facilement la barrière gastro-intestinale, puis est hydrolysé en ganciclovir dans la circulation sanguine, produisant une exposition comparable à celle d'une perfusion intraveineuse de ganciclovir. De ce fait, le valganciclovir est devenu largement utilisé pour la prophylaxie mais aussi le traitement de l'infection à CMV. Néanmoins une utilisation optimale de ce nouveau médicament nécessite de bonnes connaissances sur son profil pharmacocinétique afin d'établir un schéma de dose adapté pour éviter tant une surexposition qu'une sous-exposition résultant des différences d'élimination entre les patients. Le but de cette thèse a été d'étudier le profil pharmacocinétique et pharmacodynamique du valganciclovir chez les transplantés d'organe ainsi que sa reproductibilité et sa prédictibilité. Il s'agissait d'apprécier de manière critique le schéma actuellement recommandé pour l'adaptation des doses de valganciclovir, mais aussi la contribution éventuelle d'un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine. Un total de 437 taux sanguins de ganciclovir ont été mesurés, provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques, 58 sous une prophylaxie orale de valganciclovir, 8 sous un traitement de valganciclovir et 2 sous un traitement intraveineux). Une méthode de chromatographie liquide à haute performance a été développée et validée pour cette étude. Les résultats ont été ensuite analysés par modélisation non linéaire à effets mixtes (NONMEM). Un modèle à deux compartiments avec absorption de premier ordre a permis de décrire les données. La clairance systémique était principalement influencée par le débit de filtration glomérulaire (GFR), avec une différence entre les types de greffe et les sexes (CL/GFR = 1.7 chez les greffés rénaux, 0.9 pour les greffés cardiaques et 1.2 pour le groupe des greffés pulmonaires et hépatiques) avec un variabilité inter-individuelle de 26% (CV%) et une variabilité inter-occasion de 12%. Le poids corporel ainsi que le sexe avaient une influence sur le volume central de distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg chez les hommes et 0.27 l/kg chez les femmes) avec une variabilité inter-individuelle de 20%. La variabilité intra-individuelle résiduelle était de 21 %. Aucune interaction médicamenteuse n'a montré d'influence sur le profil du ganciclovir. La prophylaxie avec le valganciclovir s'est révélée efficace et bien tolérée. En conclusion, cette analyse souligne l'importance d'une adaptation de la dose du valganciclovir à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Au vu de la bonne reproductibilité et prédictibilité du profil pharmacocinétique du ganciclovir chez les patients transplantés recevant du valganciclovir, un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine ne semble pas cliniquement indiqué. Néanmoins, la mesure des taux plasmatiques de ganciclovir peut être utile dans certaines situations particulières, comme la vérification d'une exposition appropriée chez des patients susceptibles d'absorption insuffisante, ou ne répondant pas au traitement d'une infection à CMV ou encore sous épuration extra-rénale. RESUME LARGE PUBLIC : Le valganciclovir est un précurseur capable de libérer du ganciclovir, récemment développé pour améliorer la faible absorption orale de ce dernier. Une fois le valganciclovir absorbé, le ganciclovir libéré dans la circulation sanguine devient efficace contre les infections à cytomégalovirus. Ce virus largement répandu est responsable de maladies insidieuses et parfois graves chez les personnes présentant une baisse des défenses immunitaires, comme les greffés d'organe recevant un traitement anti-rejet. Le ganciclovir est administré pendant plusieurs mois consécutifs soit pour prévenir une infection après la transplantation, soit pour traiter une infection déclarée. La facilité d'administration du valganciclovir par voie orale représente un avantage sur une administration du ganciclovir par perfusion, qui nécessite une hospitalisation. Toutefois, la voie orale peut être une source supplémentaire de variabilité chez les patients, avec un impact potentiel sur l'efficacité ou la toxicité du médicament. Le but de cette étude a été - de décrire le devenir de ce médicament dans le corps humain (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacocinétique) - de définir les facteurs cliniques pouvant expliquer les différences de concentration sanguine observées entre les patients sous une posologie donnée - d'explorer les relations entre les concentrations du médicament dans le sang et son efficacité ou la survenue d'effets indésirables (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacodynamie). Cette étude a nécessité le développement et la validation, d'une méthode d'analyse pour mesurer la concentration sanguine du ganciclovir, puis son application à 437 échantillons provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe solide (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques) recevant du valganciclovir. Les résultats des mesures effectuées ont été analysés à l'aide d'un outil mathématique afin d'élaborer un modèle du devenir du médicament dans le sang chez chaque patient et à chaque occasion. Cette étude a permis d'évaluer chez des patients recevant le valganciclovir, la vitesse à laquelle l'organisme absorbe, distribue, puis élimine le médicament. La vitesse d'élimination dépendait étroitement de la fonction rénale, du type de greffe et du sexe alors que la distribution dépendait du poids et du sexe du patient. La variabilité non expliquée par ces facteurs cliniques était modérée et vraisemblablement sans conséquence clinique évidente soit sur l'efficacité ou la tolérance, qui se révèlent très satisfaisantes chez les patients de l'étude. Les observations n'ont pas révélé de relation entre les concentrations de médicament et l'efficacité thérapeutique ou la survenue d'effets indésirables, confirmant que les doses relativement faibles utilisées dans notre collectif de patients suffisaient à produire une exposition reproductible à des concentrations adéquates. En conclusion, le profil (et par conséquent l'absorption) du valganciclovir chez les patients transplantés semble bien prédictible après une adaptation de la dose à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Un contrôle systématique des concentrations sanguines n'est probablement pas indiqué en routine, mais cette mesure peut présenter un intérêt dans certaines conditions particulières.

Inequality measurement for ordered response health data

Because self-reported health status [SRHS] is an ordered response variable, inequality measurement for SRHS data requires a numerical scale for converting individual responses into a summary statistic. The choice of scale is however problematic, since small variations in the numerical scale may reverse the ordering of a given pair of distributions of SRHS data in relation to conventional inequality indices such as the variance. This paper introduces a parametric family of inequality indices, founded on an inequality ordering proposed by Allison and Foster [Allison, R.A., Foster, J., 2004. Measuring health inequalities using qualitative data. Journal of Health Economics 23, 505-524], which satisfy a suitable invariance property with respect to the choice of numerical scale. Several key members of the parametric family are also derived, and an empirical application using data from the Swiss Health Survey illustrates the proposed methodology. [Authors]

Superior diagnostic performance of perfusion-cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus SPECT to detect coronary artery disease: The secondary endpoints of the multicenter multivendor MR-IMPACT II (Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Myocardial Perfusion Assessment in Coronary Artery Disease Trial).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Perfusion-cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted as an alternative to SPECT to assess myocardial ischemia non-invasively. However its performance vs gated-SPECT and in sub-populations is not fully established. The goal was to compare in a multicenter setting the diagnostic performance of perfusion-CMR and gated-SPECT for the detection of CAD in various populations using conventional x-ray coronary angiography (CXA) as the standard of reference. METHODS: In 33 centers (in US and Europe) 533 patients, eligible for CXA or SPECT, were enrolled in this multivendor trial. SPECT and CXA were performed within 4 weeks before or after CMR in all patients. Prevalence of CAD in the sample was 49% and 515 patients received MR contrast medium. Drop-out rates for CMR and SPECT were 5.6% and 3.7%, respectively (ns). The study was powered for the primary endpoint of non-inferiority of CMR vs SPECT for both, sensitivity and specificity for the detection of CAD (using a single-threshold reading), the results for the primary endpoint were reported elsewhere. In this article secondary endpoints are presented, i.e. the diagnostic performance of CMR versus SPECT in subpopulations such as multi-vessel disease (MVD), in men, in women, and in patients without prior myocardial infarction (MI). For diagnostic performance assessment the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics-curve (AUC) was calculated. Readers were blinded versus clinical data, CXA, and imaging results. RESULTS: The diagnostic performance (= area under ROC = AUC) of CMR was superior to SPECT (p = 0.0004, n = 425) and to gated-SPECT (p = 0.018, n = 253). CMR performed better than SPECT in MVD (p = 0.003 vs all SPECT, p = 0.04 vs gated-SPECT), in men (p = 0.004, n = 313) and in women (p = 0.03, n = 112) as well as in the non-infarct patients (p = 0.005, n = 186 in 1-3 vessel disease and p = 0.015, n = 140 in MVD). CONCLUSION: In this large multicenter, multivendor study the diagnostic performance of perfusion-CMR to detect CAD was superior to perfusion SPECT in the entire population and in sub-groups. Perfusion-CMR can be recommended as an alternative for SPECT imaging. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT00977093.