Free-breathing 3 T magnetic resonance t(2)-mapping of the heart.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to establish an accurate and reproducible T(2)-mapping cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) methodology at 3 T and to evaluate it in healthy volunteers and patients with myocardial infarct. BACKGROUND: Myocardial edema affects the T(2) relaxation time on CMR. Therefore, T(2)-mapping has been established to characterize edema at 1.5 T. A 3 T implementation designed for longitudinal studies and aimed at guiding and monitoring therapy remains to be implemented, thoroughly characterized, and evaluated in vivo. METHODS: A free-breathing navigator-gated radial CMR pulse sequence with an adiabatic T(2) preparation module and an empirical fitting equation for T(2) quantification was optimized using numerical simulations and was validated at 3 T in a phantom study. Its reproducibility for myocardial T(2) quantification was then ascertained in healthy volunteers and improved using an external reference phantom with known T(2). In a small cohort of patients with established myocardial infarction, the local T(2) value and extent of the edematous region were determined and compared with conventional T(2)-weighted CMR and x-ray coronary angiography, where available. RESULTS: The numerical simulations and phantom study demonstrated that the empirical fitting equation is significantly more accurate for T(2) quantification than that for the more conventional exponential decay. The volunteer study consistently demonstrated a reproducibility error as low as 2 ± 1% using the external reference phantom and an average myocardial T(2) of 38.5 ± 4.5 ms. Intraobserver and interobserver variability in the volunteers were -0.04 ± 0.89 ms (p = 0.86) and -0.23 ± 0.91 ms (p = 0.87), respectively. In the infarction patients, the T(2) in edema was 62.4 ± 9.2 ms and was consistent with the x-ray angiographic findings. Simultaneously, the extent of the edematous region by T(2)-mapping correlated well with that from the T(2)-weighted images (r = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The new, well-characterized 3 T methodology enables robust and accurate cardiac T(2)-mapping at 3 T with high spatial resolution, while the addition of a reference phantom improves reproducibility. This technique may be well suited for longitudinal studies in patients with suspected or established heart disease.

Brain water mobility decreases after astrocytic aquaporin-4 inhibition using RNA interference.

Neuroimaging with diffusion-weighted imaging is routinely used for clinical diagnosis/prognosis. Its quantitative parameter, the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), is thought to reflect water mobility in brain tissues. After injury, reduced ADC values are thought to be secondary to decreases in the extracellular space caused by cell swelling. However, the physiological mechanisms associated with such changes remain uncertain. Aquaporins (AQPs) facilitate water diffusion through the plasma membrane and provide a unique opportunity to examine the molecular mechanisms underlying water mobility. Because of this critical role and the recognition that brain AQP4 is distributed within astrocytic cell membranes, we hypothesized that AQP4 contributes to the regulation of water diffusion and variations in its expression would alter ADC values in normal brain. Using RNA interference in the rodent brain, we acutely knocked down AQP4 expression and observed that a 27% AQP4-specific silencing induced a 50% decrease in ADC values, without modification of tissue histology. Our results demonstrate that ADC values in normal brain are modulated by astrocytic AQP4. These findings have major clinical relevance as they suggest that imaging changes seen in acute neurologic disorders such as stroke and trauma are in part due to changes in tissue AQP4 levels.

Detection of suspected placental invasion by MRI: Do the results depend on observer' experience?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the diagnostic value of previously described MR features used for detecting suspected placental invasion according to observers' experience. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Our population included 25 pregnant women (mean age 35.16) investigated by prenatal MRI (1.5T, T1- and T2-weighted MR-sequences without i.v. contrast), among them 12 with histopathologically proven placental invasion and 13 women (52%) without placental invasion used as control group. Two senior and two junior radiologists blindly and independently reviewed MR-examinations in view of 6 previously defined MR-features indicating presence and degree of placental invasion (placenta increta, accreta or percreta). For each reader the sensibility, specificity, and receiver operating curve (ROC) were calculated. Interobserver agreements between senior and junior readers were determined. Stepwise logistic regression was performed including the 6 MR-features predictive of placental invasion. RESULTS: Demographics between both groups were statistically equivalent. Overall sensitivity and specificity for placental invasion was 90.9% and 75.0% for seniors and 81.8% and 61.8% for juniors, respectively. The best single MR-feature indicating placental invasion was T2-hypointense placental bands (r(2)=0.28), followed by focally interrupted myometrial border, infiltration of pelvic organs and tenting of the bladder (r(2)=0.36). Interobserver agreement for detecting placental invasion was 0.64 for seniors and 0.41 for juniors, thus substantial and moderate, respectively. Seniors detected placental invasion and depth of infiltration with significantly higher diagnostic certitude than juniors (p=0.0002 and p=0.0282, respectively). CONCLUSION: MRI can be a reliable and reproducible tool for the detection of suspected placental invasion, but the diagnostic value significantly depends on observers' experience.

Pragmatic approach for interpreting antiretroviral drug concentrations based on a systematic review of population pharmacokinetic studies

Objectives: The study objective was to derive reference pharmacokinetic curves of antiretroviral drugs (ART) based on available population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) studies that can be used to optimize therapeutic drug monitoring guided dosage adjustment.¦Methods: A systematic search of Pop-PK studies of 8 ART in adults was performed in PubMed. To simulate reference PK curves, a summary of the PK parameters was obtained for each drug based on meta-analysis approach. Most models used one-compartment model, thus chosen as reference model. Models using bi-exponential disposition were simplified to one-compartment, since the first distribution phase was rapid and not determinant for the description of the terminal elimination phase, mostly relevant for this project. Different absorption were standardized for first-order absorption processes.¦Apparent clearance (CL), apparent volume of distribution of the terminal phase (Vz) and absorption rate constant (ka) and inter-individual variability were pooled into summary mean value, weighted by number of plasma levels; intra-individual variability was weighted by number of individuals in each study.¦Simulations based on summary PK parameters served to construct concentration PK percentiles (NONMEM®).¦Concordance between individual and summary parameters was assessed graphically using Forest-plots. To test robustness, difference in simulated curves based on published and summary parameters was calculated using efavirenz as probe drug.¦Results: CL was readily accessible from all studies. For studies with one-compartment, Vz was central volume of distribution; for two-compartment, Vz was CL/λz. ka was directly used or derived based on the mean absorption time (MAT) for more complicated absorption models, assuming MAT=1/ka.¦The value of CL for each drug was in excellent agreement throughout all Pop-PK models, suggesting that minimal concentration derived from summary models was adequately characterized. The comparison of the concentration vs. time profile for efavirenz between published and summary PK parameters revealed not more than 20% difference. Although our approach appears adequate for estimation of elimination phase, the simplification of absorption phase might lead to small bias shortly after drug intake.¦Conclusions: Simulated reference percentile curves based on such an approach represent a useful tool for interpretating drug concentrations. This Pop-PK meta-analysis approach should be further validated and could be extended to elaborate more sophisticated computerized tool for the Bayesian TDM of ART.

Disease identification based on ambulatory drugs dispensation and in-hospital ICD-10 diagnoses: a comparison.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacy-based case mix measures are an alternative source of information to the relatively scarce outpatient diagnoses data. But most published tools use national drug nomenclatures and offer no head-to-head comparisons between drugs-related and diagnoses-based categories. The objective of the study was to test the accuracy of drugs-based morbidity groups derived from the World Health Organization Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification of drugs by checking them against diagnoses-based groups. METHODS: We compared drugs-based categories with their diagnoses-based analogues using anonymous data on 108,915 individuals insured with one of four companies. They were followed throughout 2005 and 2006 and hospitalized at least once during this period. The agreement between the two approaches was measured by weighted kappa coefficients. The reproducibility of the drugs-based morbidity measure over the 2 years was assessed for all enrollees. RESULTS: Eighty percent used a drug associated with at least one of the 60 morbidity categories derived from drugs dispensation. After accounting for inpatient under-coding, fifteen conditions agreed sufficiently with their diagnoses-based counterparts to be considered alternative strategies to diagnoses. In addition, they exhibited good reproducibility and allowed prevalence estimates in accordance with national estimates. For 22 conditions, drugs-based information identified accurately a subset of the population defined by diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: Most categories provide insurers with health status information that could be exploited for healthcare expenditure prediction or ambulatory cost control, especially when ambulatory diagnoses are not available. However, due to insufficient concordance with their diagnoses-based analogues, their use for morbidity indicators is limited.

Validated SNPs for eGFR and their associations with albuminuria.

Albuminuria and reduced glomerular filtration rate are manifestations of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that predict end-stage renal disease, acute kidney injury, cardiovascular disease and death. We hypothesized that SNPs identified in association with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) would also be associated with albuminuria. Within the CKDGen Consortium cohort (n= 31 580, European ancestry), we tested 16 eGFR-associated SNPs for association with the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and albuminuria [UACR >25 mg/g (women); 17 mg/g (men)]. In parallel, within the CARe Renal Consortium (n= 5569, African ancestry), we tested seven eGFR-associated SNPs for association with the UACR. We used a Bonferroni-corrected P-value of 0.003 (0.05/16) in CKDGen and 0.007 (0.05/7) in CARe. We also assessed whether the 16 eGFR SNPs were associated with the UACR in aggregate using a beta-weighted genotype score. In the CKDGen Consortium, the minor A allele of rs17319721 in the SHROOM3 gene, known to be associated with a lower eGFR, was associated with lower ln(UACR) levels (beta = -0.034, P-value = 0.0002). No additional eGFR-associated SNPs met the Bonferroni-corrected P-value threshold of 0.003 for either UACR or albuminuria. In the CARe Renal Consortium, there were no associations between SNPs and UACR with a P< 0.007. Although we found the genotype score to be associated with albuminuria (P= 0.0006), this result was driven almost entirely by the known SHROOM3 variant, rs17319721. Removal of rs17319721 resulted in a P-value 0.03, indicating a weak residual aggregate signal. No alleles, previously demonstrated to be associated with a lower eGFR, were associated with the UACR or albuminuria, suggesting that there may be distinct genetic components for these traits.

Alveolar echinococcosis of the liver: diffusionweighted MR imaging findings

Purpose: To report the diffusion-weighted MR imaging (DWI) findings in hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (AE). To evaluate the usefulness of apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) for differentiating the 5 types of AE lesions (as reported by Kodama, Radiology, 2003).Methods and Materials: We retrospectively included 17 patients (10 women, mean age 64.3years) with 48 AE liver lesions (>1cm2) that had been investigated by 3-Tesla MR imaging between March 2008 and August 2011 performing our standard protocol including DWI (b-values: 0, 300 and 600s/mm2). In consensus, two radiologists assessed lesion characteristics such as diameter, cystic and/or fibrotic components including Kodama classification, signal intensity, contrast enhancement, calcifications (on CT), and measured the ADC of each lesion. AE was confirmed by serology, biopsy and/or surgery in all patients.Results: Seventeen lesions of Kodama type 1, 10 of type 2, 19 of type 3, 1 of type 4 and 1 of type 5 were found. Mean(±SD) ADC of all AE lesions was 1.75±0.45 ×10-3mm2/s. Mean(±SD) ADCs of Kodama type 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 lesions were 1.74±0.55, 1.71±0.49, 1.82±0.36, 1.46±0 and 1.43±0 ×10-3mm2/s, respectively. No significant difference was noted between the different Kodama types (p=0.89). Presence of fibrotic (p=0.24) and/or calcified (p=0.90) components, or contrast enhancement (p=0.84) of AE lesions were not correlated with significant differences in ADCs.Conclusion: ADCs of AE lesions are relatively low compared to other cystic liver lesions, which is helpful in suggesting the diagnosis. However, ADCs were not found to be useful for differentiating Kodama types of AE lesions.

Multispectral brain morphometry in Tourette syndrome persisting into adulthood.

Tourette syndrome is a childhood-onset neuropsychiatric disorder with a high prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity and obsessive-compulsive disorder co-morbidities. Structural changes have been found in frontal cortex and striatum in children and adolescents. A limited number of morphometric studies in Tourette syndrome persisting into adulthood suggest ongoing structural alterations affecting frontostriatal circuits. Using cortical thickness estimation and voxel-based analysis of T1- and diffusion-weighted structural magnetic resonance images, we examined 40 adults with Tourette syndrome in comparison with 40 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Patients with Tourette syndrome showed relative grey matter volume reduction in orbitofrontal, anterior cingulate and ventrolateral prefrontal cortices bilaterally. Cortical thinning extended into the limbic mesial temporal lobe. The grey matter changes were modulated additionally by the presence of co-morbidities and symptom severity. Prefrontal cortical thickness reduction correlated negatively with tic severity, while volume increase in primary somatosensory cortex depended on the intensity of premonitory sensations. Orbitofrontal cortex volume changes were further associated with abnormal water diffusivity within grey matter. White matter analysis revealed changes in fibre coherence in patients with Tourette syndrome within anterior parts of the corpus callosum. The severity of motor tics and premonitory urges had an impact on the integrity of tracts corresponding to cortico-cortical and cortico-subcortical connections. Our results provide empirical support for a patho-aetiological model of Tourette syndrome based on developmental abnormalities, with perturbation of compensatory systems marking persistence of symptoms into adulthood. We interpret the symptom severity related grey matter volume increase in distinct functional brain areas as evidence of ongoing structural plasticity. The convergence of evidence from volume and water diffusivity imaging strengthens the validity of our findings and attests to the value of a novel multimodal combination of volume and cortical thickness estimations that provides unique and complementary information by exploiting their differential sensitivity to structural change.

Modern cataract surgery for radiation-induced cataracts in retinoblastoma.

Background Surgery of radiation-induced cataracts in children with retinoblastoma (RB) is a challenge as early intervention is weighted against the need to delay surgery until complete tumour control is obtained. This study analyses the safety and functional results of such surgery. Methods In a retrospective, non-comparative, consecutive case series, we reviewed medical records of RB patients </=14 y of age who underwent either external beam radiotherapy or plaque treatment and were operated for radiation-induced cataract between 1985 and 2008. Results In total, 21 eyes of 20 RB patients were included and 18 out of the 21 eyes had Reese-Ellsworth stage V or ABC classification group D/E RB. Median interval between last treatment for RB and cataract surgery was 21.5 months, range 3-164 months. Phacoaspiration was performed in 13 eyes (61%), extra-capsular cataract extraction in 8 (39%) and intraocular lens implantation in 19 eyes (90%). The majority of cases, 11/21 (52%), underwent posterior capsulorhexis or capsulotomy and 6/21 (28%) an anterior vitrectomy. Postoperative visual acuity was >/=20/200 in 13 eyes and <20/200 in 5 eyes. Intraocular tumour recurrence was noted in three eyes. Mean postoperative follow up was 90 months+/-69 months. Conclusions Modern cataract surgery, including clear cornea approach, lens aspiration with posterior capsulotomy, anterior vitrectomy and IOL implantation is a safe procedure for radiation-induced cataract as long as RB is controlled. The visual prognosis is limited by initial tumour involvement of the macula and by corneal complications of radiotherapy. We recommend a minimal interval of 9 months between completion of treatment of retinoblastoma and cataract surgery.

Gender and weight shape brain dynamics during food viewing.

Hemodynamic imaging results have associated both gender and body weight to variation in brain responses to food-related information. However, the spatio-temporal brain dynamics of gender-related and weight-wise modulations in food discrimination still remain to be elucidated. We analyzed visual evoked potentials (VEPs) while normal-weighted men (n = 12) and women (n = 12) categorized photographs of energy-dense foods and non-food kitchen utensils. VEP analyses showed that food categorization is influenced by gender as early as 170 ms after image onset. Moreover, the female VEP pattern to food categorization co-varied with participants' body weight. Estimations of the neural generator activity over the time interval of VEP modulations (i.e. by means of a distributed linear inverse solution [LAURA]) revealed alterations in prefrontal and temporo-parietal source activity as a function of image category and participants' gender. However, only neural source activity for female responses during food viewing was negatively correlated with body-mass index (BMI) over the respective time interval. Women showed decreased neural source activity particularly in ventral prefrontal brain regions when viewing food, but not non-food objects, while no such associations were apparent in male responses to food and non-food viewing. Our study thus indicates that gender influences are already apparent during initial stages of food-related object categorization, with small variations in body weight modulating electrophysiological responses especially in women and in brain areas implicated in food reward valuation and intake control. These findings extend recent reports on prefrontal reward and control circuit responsiveness to food cues and the potential role of this reactivity pattern in the susceptibility to weight gain.

Prospective comparison of MR enteroclysis with multidetector spiral-CT enteroclysis: interobserver agreement and sensitivity by means of "sign-by-sign" correlation.

Our objective was a prospective comparison of MR enteroclysis (MRE) with multidetector spiral-CT enteroclysis (MSCTE). Fifty patients with various suspected small bowel diseases were investigated by MSCTE and MRE. The MSCTE was performed using slices of 2.5 mm, immediately followed by MRE, obtaining T1- and T2-weighted sequences, including gadolinium-enhanced acquisition with fat saturation. Three radiologists independently evaluated MSCTE and MRE searching for 12 pathological signs. Interobserver agreement was calculated. Sensitivities and specificities resulted from comparison with pathological results ( n=29) and patient's clinical evolution ( n=21). Most pathological signs, such as bowel wall thickening (BWT), bowel wall enhancement (BWE) and lymphadenopathy (ADP), showed better interobserver agreement on MSCTE than on MRE (BWT: 0.65 vs 0.48; BWE: 0.51 vs 0.37; ADP: 0.52 vs 0.15). Sensitivity of MSCTE was higher than that of MRE in detecting BWT (88.9 vs 60%), BWE (78.6 vs 55.5%) and ADP (63.8 vs 14.3%). Wilcoxon signed-rank test revealed significantly better sensitivity of MSCTE than that of MRE for each observer ( p=0.028, p=0.046, p=0.028, respectively). Taking the given study design into account, MSCTE provides better sensitivity in detecting lesions of the small bowel than MRE, with higher interobserver agreement.

Inferring ultraviolet anatomical exposure patterns while distinguishing the relative contribution of radiation components

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors, but individual exposure data remain scarce. While ground UV irradiance is monitored via different techniques, it is difficult to translate such observations into human UV exposure or dose because of confounding factors. A multi-disciplinary collaboration developed a model predicting the dose and distribution of UV exposure on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a simulation tool that estimates solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by various body locations is computed for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation separately. Dosimetric measurements obtained in field conditions were used to assess the model performance. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately with a symmetric mean absolute percentage error of 13% and half of the predictions within 17% range of the measurements. Using this tool, solar UV exposure patterns were investigated with respect to the relative contribution of the direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. Exposure doses for various body parts and exposure scenarios of a standing individual were assessed using erythemally-weighted UV ground irradiance data measured in 2009 at Payerne, Switzerland as input. For most anatomical sites, mean daily doses were high (typically 6.2-14.6 Standard Erythemal Dose, SED) and exceeded recommended exposure values. Direct exposure was important during specific periods (e. g. midday during summer), but contributed moderately to the annual dose, ranging from 15 to 24% for vertical and horizontal body parts, respectively. Diffuse irradiation explained about 80% of the cumulative annual exposure dose.

Perturbation expansions of multilocus fixation probabilities for frequency-dependent selection with applications to the Hill-Robertson effect and to the joint evolution of helping and punishment.

Natural populations are of finite size and organisms carry multilocus genotypes. There are, nevertheless, few results on multilocus models when both random genetic drift and natural selection affect the evolutionary dynamics. In this paper we describe a formalism to calculate systematic perturbation expansions of moments of allelic states around neutrality in populations of constant size. This allows us to evaluate multilocus fixation probabilities (long-term limits of the moments) under arbitrary strength of selection and gene action. We show that such fixation probabilities can be expressed in terms of selection coefficients weighted by mean first passages times of ancestral gene lineages within a single ancestor. These passage times extend the coalescence times that weight selection coefficients in one-locus perturbation formulas for fixation probabilities. We then apply these results to investigate the Hill-Robertson effect and the coevolution of helping and punishment. Finally, we discuss limitations and strengths of the perturbation approach. In particular, it provides accurate approximations for fixation probabilities for weak selection regimes only (Ns < or = 1), but it provides generally good prediction for the direction of selection under frequency-dependent selection.

Assessment of myocardial edema and area-at-risk in acute myocardial infarction by CMR: Evaluation of a novel T2-mapping method

Objectives. The goal of this study is to evaluate a T2-mapping sequence by: (i) measuring the reproducibility intra- and inter-observer variability in healthy volunteers in two separate scanning session with a T2 reference phantom; (2) measuring the mean T2 relaxation times by T2-mapping in infarcted myocardium in patients with subacute MI and compare it with patient's the gold standard X-ray coronary angiography and healthy volunteers results. Background. Myocardial edema is a consequence of an inflammation of the tissue, as seen in myocardial infarct (MI). It can be visualized by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging using the T2 relaxation time. T2-mapping is a quantitative methodology that has the potential to address the limitation of the conventional T2-weighted (T2W) imaging. Methods. The T2-mapping protocol used for all MRI scans consisted in a radial gradient echo acquisition with a lung-liver navigator for free-breathing acquisition and affine image registration. Mid-basal short axis slices were acquired.T2-maps analyses: 2 observers semi- automatically segmented the left ventricle in 6 segments accordingly to the AHA standards. 8 healthy volunteers (age: 27 ± 4 years; 62.5% male) were scanned in 2 separate sessions. 17 patients (age : 61.9 ± 13.9 years; 82.4% male) with subacute STEMI (70.6%) and NSTEMI underwent a T2-mapping scanning session. Results. In healthy volunteers, the mean inter- and intra-observer variability over the entire short axis slice (segment 1 to 6) was 0.1 ms (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.4 to 0.5, p = 0.62) and 0.2 ms (95% CI: -2.8 to 3.2, p = 0.94, respectively. T2 relaxation time measurements with and without the correction of the phantom yielded an average difference of 3.0 ± 1.1 % and 3.1 ± 2.1 % (p = 0.828), respectively. In patients, the inter-observer variability in the entire short axis slice (S1-S6), was 0.3 ms (95% CI: -1.8 to 2.4, p = 0.85). Edema location as determined through the T2-mapping and the coronary artery occlusion as determined on X-ray coronary angiography correlated in 78.6%, but only in 60% in apical infarcts. All except one of the maximal T2 values in infarct patients were greater than the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for normal myocardium. Conclusions. The T2-mapping methodology is accurate in detecting infarcted, i.e. edematous tissue in patients with subacute infarcts. This study further demonstrated that this T2-mapping technique is reproducible and robust enough to be used on a segmental basis for edema detection without the need of a phantom to yield a T2 correction factor. This new quantitative T2-mapping technique is promising and is likely to allow for serial follow-up studies in patients to improve our knowledge on infarct pathophysiology, on infarct healing, and for the assessment of novel treatment strategies for acute infarctions.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.