Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Effects of Sucroferric Oxyhydroxide Compared to Lanthanum Carbonate and Sevelamer Carbonate on Phosphate Homeostasis and Vascular Calcifications in a Rat Model of Chronic Kidney Failure.

Elevated serum phosphorus, calcium, and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) levels are associated with cardiovascular disease in chronic renal disease. This study evaluated the effects of sucroferric oxyhydroxide (PA21), a new iron-based phosphate binder, versus lanthanum carbonate (La) and sevelamer carbonate (Se), on serum FGF23, phosphorus, calcium, and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) concentrations, and the development of vascular calcification in adenine-induced chronic renal failure (CRF) rats. After induction of CRF, renal function was significantly impaired in all groups: uremic rats developed severe hyperphosphatemia, and serum iPTH increased significantly. All uremic rats (except controls) then received phosphate binders for 4 weeks. Hyperphosphatemia and increased serum iPTH were controlled to a similar extent in all phosphate binder-treatment groups. Only sucroferric oxyhydroxide was associated with significantly decreased FGF23. Vascular calcifications of the thoracic aorta were decreased by all three phosphate binders. Calcifications were better prevented at the superior part of the thoracic and abdominal aorta in the PA21 treated rats. In adenine-induced CRF rats, sucroferric oxyhydroxide was as effective as La and Se in controlling hyperphosphatemia, secondary hyperparathyroidism, and vascular calcifications. The role of FGF23 in calcification remains to be confirmed.

Anthropomorphic model observer performance in three-dimensional detection task for low-contrast computed tomography.

X-ray medical imaging is increasingly becoming three-dimensional (3-D). The dose to the population and its management are of special concern in computed tomography (CT). Task-based methods with model observers to assess the dose-image quality trade-off are promising tools, but they still need to be validated for real volumetric images. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate anthropomorphic model observers in 3-D detection tasks for low-contrast CT images. We scanned a low-contrast phantom containing four types of signals at three dose levels and used two reconstruction algorithms. We implemented a multislice model observer based on the channelized Hotelling observer (msCHO) with anthropomorphic channels and investigated different internal noise methods. We found a good correlation for all tested model observers. These results suggest that the msCHO can be used as a relevant task-based method to evaluate low-contrast detection for CT and optimize scan protocols to lower dose in an efficient way.