Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Influence of the ankle arthropathies on the 3D kinematics of the lower limbs during gait: analysis with an ambulatory system.

Introduction: Ankle arthropathy is associated with a decreased motion of the ankle-hindfoot during ambulation. Ankle arthrodesis was shown to result in degeneration of the neighbour joints of the foot. Inversely, total ankle arthroplasty conceptually preserves the adjacent joints because of the residual mobility of the ankle but this has not been demonstrated yet in vivo. It has also been reported that degenerative ankle diseases, and even arthrodesis, do not result in alteration of the knee and hip joints. We present the preliminary results of a new approach of this problem based on ambulatory gait analysis. Patients and Methods: Motion analysis of the lower limbs was performed using a Physilog® (BioAGM, CH) system consisting of three-dimensional (3D) accelerometer and gyroscope, coupled to a magnetic system (Liberty©, Polhemus, USA). Both systems have been validated. Three groups of two patients were included into this pilot study and compared to healthy subjects (controls) during level walking: patients with ankle osteoarthritis (group 1), patients treated by ankle arthrodesis (group 2), patients treated by total ankle prosthesis (group 3). Results: Motion patterns of all analyzed joints over more than 20 gait cycles in each subject were highly repeatable. Motion amplitude of the ankle-hindfoot in control patients was similar to recently reported results. Ankle arthrodesis limited the motion of the ankle-hindfoot in the sagittal and horizontal planes. The prosthetic ankle allowed a more physiologic movement in the sagittal plane only. Ankle arthritis and its treatments did not influence the range of motion of the knee and hip joint during stance phase, excepted for a slight decrease of the hip flexion in groups 1 and 2. Conclusion: The reliability of the system was shown by the repeatability of the consecutive measurements. The results of this preliminary study were similar to those obtained through laboratory gait analysis. However, our system has the advantage to allow ambulatory analysis of 3D kinematics of the lower limbs outside of a gait laboratory and in real life conditions. To our knowledge this is a new concept in the analysis of ankle arthropathy and its treatments. Therefore, there is a potential to address specific questions like the difficult comparison of the benefits of ankle arthroplasty versus arthrodesis. The encouraging results of this pilot study offer the perspective to analyze the consequences of ankle arthropathy and its treatments on the biomechanics of the lower limbs ambulatory, in vivo and in daily life conditions.

Inactivation of L-type calcium channels is determined by the length of the N terminus of mutant beta(1) subunits.

Voltage-dependent calcium channel (Ca(v)) pores are modulated by cytosolic beta subunits. Four beta-subunit genes and their splice variants offer a wide structural array for tissue- or disease-specific biophysical gating phenotypes. For instance, the length of the N terminus of beta(2) subunits has major effects on activation and inactivation rates. We tested whether a similar mechanism principally operates in a beta(1) subunit. Wild-type beta(1a) subunit (N terminus length 60 aa) and its newly generated N-terminal deletion mutants (51, 27 and 18 aa) were examined within recombinant L-type calcium channel complexes (Ca(v)1.2 and alpha(2)delta2) in HEK293 cells at the whole-cell and single-channel level. Whole-cell currents were enhanced by co-transfection of the full-length beta(1a) subunit and by all truncated constructs. Voltage dependence of steady-state activation and inactivation did not depend on N terminus length, but inactivation rate was diminished by N terminus truncation. This was confirmed at the single-channel level, using ensemble average currents. Additionally, gating properties were estimated by Markov modeling. In confirmation of the descriptive analysis, inactivation rate, but none of the other transition rates, was reduced by shortening of the beta(1a) subunit N terminus. Our study shows that the length-dependent mechanism of modulating inactivation kinetics of beta(2) calcium channel subunits can be confirmed and extended to the beta(1) calcium channel subunit.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

Polymorphism at a sex-linked transcription cofactor in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea): Sex-antagonistic selection or neutral processes?

Nascent sex chromosomes offer a unique opportunity to investigate the evolutionary fate of genesrecently trapped in non-recombining segments. A housekeeping gene (MED15) was recently shown to lie on the nascent sex-chromosomes of the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), with different alleles fixed on the X and the Y chromosomes. Here we document a polymorphism (glutamine deletion) in the X copy of the gene, and use population surveys and experimental crosses to test whether this polymorphism is neutral or maintained by sex-antagonistic selection. Tadpoles from parents of known genotypes revealed significant discrepancies from Mendelian inheritance, suggesting possible sex-antagonistic effects under laboratory conditions. Quantitatively, however, these effects did not meet the conditions for polymorphism maintenance. Furthermore, field estimates of female genotypic frequencies did not differ from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and allelic frequencies on the X chromosome did not differ between sexes. In conclusion, although sex antagonistic effects cannot be excluded given the laboratory conditions, the X-linked polymorphism under study appears neutral in the wild. Alternatively, sex-antagonistic selection might still account for the fixation of a male specific allele on the Y chromosome.

Low-dose multidetector computed tomography of the cervical spine: optimization of iterative reconstruction strength levels.

BACKGROUND: Iterative reconstruction (IR) techniques reduce image noise in multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) imaging. They can therefore be used to reduce radiation dose while maintaining diagnostic image quality nearly constant. However, CT manufacturers offer several strength levels of IR to choose from. PURPOSE: To determine the optimal strength level of IR in low-dose MDCT of the cervical spine. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty consecutive patients investigated by low-dose cervical spine MDCT were prospectively studied. Raw data were reconstructed using filtered back-projection and sinogram-affirmed IR (SAFIRE, strength levels 1 to 5) techniques. Image noise, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) were measured at C3-C4 and C6-C7 levels. Two radiologists independently and blindly evaluated various anatomical structures (both dense and soft tissues) using a 4-point scale. They also rated the overall diagnostic image quality using a 10-point scale. RESULTS: As IR strength levels increased, image noise decreased linearly, while SNR and CNR both increased linearly at C3-C4 and C6-C7 levels (P < 0.001). For the intervertebral discs, the content of neural foramina and dural sac, and for the ligaments, subjective image quality scores increased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P ≤ 0.03). Conversely, for the soft tissues and trabecular bone, the scores decreased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P < 0.001). Finally, the overall diagnostic image quality scores increased linearly with increasing IR strength level (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The optimal strength level of IR in low-dose cervical spine MDCT depends on the anatomical structure to be analyzed. For the intervertebral discs and the content of neural foramina, high strength levels of IR are recommended.