Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Clinical Implications of CD8+ T-cell infiltration in frequent and rare cancers.

Recent studies of cancer patients revealed high diversity in oncogenic mechanisms, leading to increased treatment individualization for subgroups of patients with frequent cancers. A similar development may not be possible for patients with rare cancers, such as Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC). Finding shared disease mechanisms may open new options to understanding and treating such tumors. Tumor-infiltrating CD8+ T cells are frequently associated with favorable clinical outcome in a remarkably large spectrum of cancers. In this issue, Afanasiev et al. suggest a mechanism that may hinder the tumor homing of CD8+ T cells in MCC patients. It is possible that therapeutic mobilization of anti-cancer T cells may be useful in patients who share this specific immune biological feature.

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Understanding mutational and selective processes that govern gene duplication in mammals

Abstract : Gene duplication is an essential source of material for the origin of genetic novelties. The reverse transcription of source gene mRNA followed by the genomic insertion of the resulting cDNA - retroposition - has provided the human genome with at least ~3600 detectable retrocopies. We find that ~30% of these retrocopies are transcribed, generally in testes. Their transcription often relies on preexisting regulatory elements (or open chromatin) close to their insertion site, which is illustrated by mRNA molecules containing retrocopies fused to their neighboring genes. Retrocopies appear to have been profoundly shaped by selection. Consistently, human retrocopies with an intact open reading (ORF) are more often transcribed than retropseudogenes, which leads to a minimal estimate of 120 functional retrogenes present in our genome. We also performed an analysis of Ka/Ks for human retrocopies. This analysis demonstrates that several intact retrocopies evolved under purifying selection and yields an estimated formation rate of ~1 retrogene per million year in the primate lineage. Using DNA sequencing and evolutionary simulations, we have identified 7 such primate-specific retrogenes that emerged on the lineage leading to humans In therian genomes, we found an excess of retrogenes with X-linked parents. Expression analyses support the idea that this "out of X" movement was driven by natural selection to produce autosomal functional counterparts for X-linked genes, which are silenced during male meiosis. Phylogenetic dating of this "out of X" movement suggests that our sex chromosomes arose about 180 MYA ago and are thus much younger than previously thought. Finally, we have also analyzed young gene duplications (and deletions) that arose by non allelic-homologous recombination and are not fixed in species. Using wild-caught and laboratory animals, we detected thousands of DNA segments that are polymorphic in copy number in mice. These copy number variants were found to profoundly alter the transcriptome of several mouse tissues. Strikingly, their influence on gene expression is not limited to the gene they contain but seems to extend to genes located up to 1.5 million bases away.

Giant cell arteritis: A rare cause of posterior vasculitis.

PURPOSE: To report three cases of posterior vasculitis associated with subacute giant cell arteritis (GCA). METHODS: Three patients with decreased vision underwent complete ophthalmologic examination and fluorescein angiography. RESULTS: All patients presented posterior vasculitis. Patient 1 had an erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) of 38 mm/hr and a C-reactive protein (CRP) of 28mg/L. Patient 2 and 3 had an ESR of 104 and 95 mm/hr and a CRP of 42 and 195 mg/L accordingly. Diagnosis was established by temporal artery biopsy. Resolution was observed after systemic prednisolone therapy. CONCLUSION: GCA should be suspected when posterior vasculitis and relatively high ESR and CRP are present.

Supracerebellar arachnoid cyst - A rare cause of acquired Chiari I malformation.

Chiari I malformation (CM) associated with a cervico-thoracic syrinx due to supracerebellar arachnoid cyst has not been reported in the literature. We report such a case, managed by fenestration of the arachnoid cyst and foramen magnum decompression (FMD), aiming to reduce the inferiorly directed pressure on the cerebellum and eliminate the craniospinal pressure dissociation respectively. Imaging done post-operatively showed upward displacement of the cerebellar tonsils with a decompressed craniovertebral junction and disappearance of the syrinx.

Management of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the breast: a Rare Cancer Network study.

BACKGROUND: Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT), in ACC.¦METHODS: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were treated at participating centers of the Rare Cancer Network. Surgery consisted of lumpectomy in 41 patients and mastectomy in 20 patients. There were 51(84%) stage pN0 and 10 stage cN0 (16%) patients. Postoperative RT was administered to 40 patients (35 after lumpectomy, 5 after mastectomy).¦RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285), 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%-100%) and 82% (95% CI, 71%-93%), respectively. The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 95% (95% CI, 89%-100%). Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy was performed in 84% of cases. All patients had stage pN0 disease. In univariate analysis, survival was not influenced by the type of surgery or the use of postoperative RT. The 5-year LRC rate was 100% in the mastectomy group versus 93% (95% CI, 83%-100%) in the breast-conserving surgery group, respectively (p = 0.16). For the breast-conserving surgery group, the use of RT significantly correlated with LRC (p = 0.03); the 5-year LRC rates were 95% (95% CI, 86%-100%) for the RT group versus 83% (95% CI, 54%-100%) for the group receiving no RT. No local failures occurred in patients with positive margins, all of whom received postoperative RT.¦CONCLUSION: Breast-conserving surgery is the treatment of choice for patients with ACC breast cancer. Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy might not be recommended. Postoperative RT should be proposed in the case of breast-conserving surgery.

Perforation colique néonatale focale spontanée en dehors de la grande prématurité : rare et potentiellement insidieuse [Focal spontaneous colic perforation in term or near-term neonates: rare and potentially insidious].

Two cases of neonatal focal spontaneous colic perforations are reported. The 1st infant, born at 36 3/7 weeks gestational age, presented on day 3 with crying, abdominal distension, and liquid stools. Clinical examination showed a slightly irritable hypothermic (35.7 °C) infant with a distended abdomen and few bowel sounds. Blood tests were normal apart from an elevated C-reactive protein level (59 mg/l). The abdomen x-ray was erroneously considered normal. The infant's condition remained stable for nearly 3 days. After reviewing the initial x-ray, pneumoperitoneum was suspected and confirmed by a cross-table lateral abdominal x-ray. The infant was started on antibiotics and operated. Macroscopically, the entire gut was normal apart from a focal sigmoid perforation, which was stitched. A transmural colic biopsy revealed focal vascular dilation but was negative for necrotising enterocolitis or Hirschsprung disease. The infant recovered quickly. She is now a healthy, normal 3-year-old. The 2nd infant, born at 38 5/7 weeks gestational age, presented between day 1 and 2 with clinical signs of infection associated with slowly progressive ileus. The chest and abdomen x-ray was mistakenly considered normal. Frank septicemia developed. After reviewing the initial x-ray, pneumoperitoneum was suspected and confirmed by a cross-table lateral abdominal x-ray. The infant was operated. Macroscopically, the small intestine was normal, the ascending and transverse colons were dilated, and the descending and sigmoid colons were narrow. Three cecal perforations were discovered and stitched. An ileostomy and multiple colic biopsies were also performed. The postoperative course was complicated by persistent septic ileus due to descending and sigmoid colon leaks, which led to colic resections with end-to-end anastomosis. Rectal aspiration biopsies were also performed. At 1 month of age, the infant was discharged from the hospital. The ileostomy was closed in two steps at 2 and 5 months of age. A normal sweat test excluded cystic fibrosis. All colic and rectal biopsies revealed nonspecific inflammatory signs and excluded necrotizing enterocolitis and Hirschsprung disease. Nonspecific irregular thinning of muscularis mucosae and muscularis propria were observed in the two resected colic segments. The boy is now a healthy 7-year-old. The incidence of neonatal focal spontaneous colic perforations at term or close to term is unknown but probably very rare. Our department is the neonatal referral center for approximately 14,000 annual births. In the last 10 years (2000-2009), out of 5115 neonatal admissions in our unit, only ten cases have presented a neonatal spontaneous intestinal perforation, seven of ten in very-low-birth-weight infants and three of ten in term or near-term neonates (one with Hirschsprung disease and the two cases reported herein). In the same period, 108 infants suffered from necrotizing enterocolitis, seven of 108 were term infants and 6 out of 7 had a congenital heart disease. The medical literature is poor on the subject of focal spontaneous colic perforations at term; no risk factor is described. The most specific clinical sign seems to be the abdominal distension. The presence of pneumoperitoneum on an abdominal x-ray is the most sensitive paraclinical sign. In case of an intestinal perforation, surgery must be performed quickly. The vital prognosis seems to be good. The objective of this study was to draw pediatricians' attention to focal spontaneous colic perforations in term or close to term newborns. In the cases reported, the diagnostic delays could have been prevented if the entity - with its radiological manifestation - had been well known.

Bowel ischemia: a rare complication of thiopental treatment for status epilepticus.

BACKGROUND: Refractory status epilepticus (RSE) treatment is usually performed with coma induction using an appropriate general anesthetic. Most frequent complications are represented by hypotension and infection. Other side-effects may however be encountered. OBSERVATIONS: We describe two patients suffering from acute bowel ischemia after thiopental (THP) treatment for RSE. A 73-year-old man with a complex-patial RSE following an acute stroke received THP (303 mg/kg over 48 h); 36 h after THP discontinuation, he presented abdominal tenderness and lactate elevation. Necrosis of the terminal ileum and colon was seen during surgical exploration; he deceased shortly thereafter. A 21 year-old woman had a cryptogenic de novo generalized-convulsive RSE resistant to 5 attempts of EEG burst-suppression. During the 6th attempt, after THP (840 mg/kg over 150 h) together with mild hypothermia, she developed an ileus with elevated serum lactate; caecum necrosis was observed during surgery. Hypernatremia, acidosis and hyperlactatemia heralded this complication in both patients. CONCLUSION: In these two patients, mechanical vascular ischemia may have resulted from drug-induced paralytic ileus. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing this potential fatal side effect in adults with RSE.

Comparative modular analysis of gene expression in vertebrate development

The focus of my PhD research was the concept of modularity. In the last 15 years, modularity has become a classic term in different fields of biology. On the conceptual level, a module is a set of interacting elements that remain mostly independent from the elements outside of the module. I used modular analysis techniques to study gene expression evolution in vertebrates. In particular, I identified ``natural'' modules of gene expression in mouse and human, and I showed that expression of organ-specific and system-specific genes tends to be conserved between such distance vertebrates as mammals and fishes. Also with a modular approach, I studied patterns of developmental constraints on transcriptome evolution. I showed that none of the two commonly accepted models of the evolution of embryonic development (``evo-devo'') are exclusively valid. In particular, I found that the conservation of the sequences of regulatory regions is highest during mid-development of zebrafish, and thus it supports the ``hourglass model''. In contrast, events of gene duplication and new gene introduction are most rare in early development, which supports the ``early conservation model''. In addition to the biological insights on transcriptome evolution, I have also discussed in detail the advantages of modular approaches in large-scale data analysis. Moreover, I re-analyzed several studies (published in high-ranking journals), and showed that their conclusions do not hold out under a detailed analysis. This demonstrates that complex analysis of high-throughput data requires a co-operation between biologists, bioinformaticians, and statisticians.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

Early diagenesis of bone and tooth apatite in fluvial and marine settings: Constraints from combined oxygen isotope, nitrogen and REE analysis

Fossil bones and teeth of Late Pleistocene terrestrial mammals from Rhine River gravels (RS) and the North Sea (NS), that have been exposed to chemically and isotopically distinct diagenetic fluids (fresh water versus seawater), were investigated to study the effects of early diagenesis on biogenic apatite. Changes in phosphate oxygen isotopic composition (delta O-18(PO4)), nitrogen content (wt.% N) and rare earth element (REE) concentrations were measured along profiles within bones that have not been completely fossilized, and in skeletal tissues (bone, dentine, enamel) with different susceptibilities to diagenetic alteration. Early diagenetic changes of elemental and isotopic compositions of apatite in fossil bone are related to the loss of the stabilizing collagen matrix. The REE concentration is negatively correlated with the nitrogen content, and therefore the amount of collagen provides a sensitive proxy for early diagenetic alteration. REE patterns of RS and NS bones indicate initial fossilization in a fresh water fluid with similar REE compositions. Bones from both settings have nearly collagen-free, REE-, U-, F- and Sr-enriched altered outer rims, while the collagen-bearing bone compacta in the central part often display early diagenetic pyrite void-fillings. However, NS bones exposed to Holocene seawater have outer rim delta O-18(PO4) values that are 1.1 to 2.6 parts per thousand higher compared to the central part of the same bones (delta O-18(PO4) = 18.2 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand, n = 19). Surprisingly, even the collagen-rich bone compacta with low REE contents and apatite crystallinity seems altered, as NS tooth enamel (delta O-18(PO4) =15.0 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand, n=4) has about 3%. lower delta O-18(PO4) values, values that are also similar to those of enamel from RS teeth. Therefore, REE concentration, N content and apatite crystallinity are in this case only poor proxies for the alteration of delta O-18(PO4) values. Seawater exposure of a few years up to 8 kyr can change the delta O-18(PO4) values of the bone apatite by > 3 parts per thousand. Therefore, bones fossilized in marine settings must be treated with caution for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. However, enamel seems to preserve pristine delta O-18(PO4) values on this time scale. Using species-specific calibrations for modern mammals, a mean delta O-18(H2O) value can be reconstructed for Late Pleistocene mammalian drinking water of around -9.2 +/- 0.5 parts per thousand, which is similar to that of Late Pleistocene groundwater from central Europe. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Owl pellets as a source of DNA for genetic studies of small mammals.

Owl pellets contain a good skeletal record of the small mammals consumed, and correspond to the undigested portions of prey which are regurgitated. These pellets are easy to find at the roosting site of owls. As it has been demonstrated that amplifiable DNA can be isolated from ancient bone remains, the possibility of using owl pellets as a source of DNA for small mammal genetics studies via the polymerase chain reaction has been investigated. The main uncertainties when isolating DNA from such a material are firstly the possibility that the extracted DNA would be too degraded during the digestion in the stomach of the owl, and secondly that extensive cross-contaminations could occur among the different prey consumed. The results obtained clearly demonstrate that cross-contamination does not occur, and that mitochondrial and nuclear DNA can be amplified using skulls of small mammals found in owl pellets as a source of DNA. The relative efficiency of two methods of DNA extraction is estimated and discussed. Thus, owl pellets represent a non-invasive sampling technique which provides a valuable source of DNA for studying population genetics of small mammals.