Assessment of letrozole and tamoxifen alone and in sequence for postmenopausal women with steroid hormone receptor-positive breast cancer: the BIG 1-98 randomised clinical trial at 8·1 years median follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer have persistent, long-term risk of breast-cancer recurrence and death. Therefore, trials assessing endocrine therapies for this patient population need extended follow-up. We present an update of efficacy outcomes in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study at 8·1 years median follow-up. METHODS: BIG 1-98 is a randomised, phase 3, double-blind trial of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer that compares 5 years of tamoxifen or letrozole monotherapy, or sequential treatment with 2 years of one of these drugs followed by 3 years of the other. Randomisation was done with permuted blocks, and stratified according to the two-arm or four-arm randomisation option, participating institution, and chemotherapy use. Patients, investigators, data managers, and medical reviewers were masked. The primary efficacy endpoint was disease-free survival (events were invasive breast cancer relapse, second primaries [contralateral breast and non-breast], or death without previous cancer event). Secondary endpoints were overall survival, distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), and breast cancer-free interval (BCFI). The monotherapy comparison included patients randomly assigned to tamoxifen or letrozole for 5 years. In 2005, after a significant disease-free survival benefit was reported for letrozole as compared with tamoxifen, a protocol amendment facilitated the crossover to letrozole of patients who were still receiving tamoxifen alone; Cox models and Kaplan-Meier estimates with inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) are used to account for selective crossover to letrozole of patients (n=619) in the tamoxifen arm. Comparison of sequential treatments to letrozole monotherapy included patients enrolled and randomly assigned to letrozole for 5 years, letrozole for 2 years followed by tamoxifen for 3 years, or tamoxifen for 2 years followed by letrozole for 3 years. Treatment has ended for all patients and detailed safety results for adverse events that occurred during the 5 years of treatment have been reported elsewhere. Follow-up is continuing for those enrolled in the four-arm option. BIG 1-98 is registered at clinicaltrials.govNCT00004205. FINDINGS: 8010 patients were included in the trial, with a median follow-up of 8·1 years (range 0-12·4). 2459 were randomly assigned to monotherapy with tamoxifen for 5 years and 2463 to monotherapy with letrozole for 5 years. In the four-arm option of the trial, 1546 were randomly assigned to letrozole for 5 years, 1548 to tamoxifen for 5 years, 1540 to letrozole for 2 years followed by tamoxifen for 3 years, and 1548 to tamoxifen for 2 years followed by letrozole for 3 years. At a median follow-up of 8·7 years from randomisation (range 0-12·4), letrozole monotherapy was significantly better than tamoxifen, whether by IPCW or intention-to-treat analysis (IPCW disease-free survival HR 0·82 [95% CI 0·74-0·92], overall survival HR 0·79 [0·69-0·90], DRFI HR 0·79 [0·68-0·92], BCFI HR 0·80 [0·70-0·92]; intention-to-treat disease-free survival HR 0·86 [0·78-0·96], overall survival HR 0·87 [0·77-0·999], DRFI HR 0·86 [0·74-0·998], BCFI HR 0·86 [0·76-0·98]). At a median follow-up of 8·0 years from randomisation (range 0-11·2) for the comparison of the sequential groups with letrozole monotherapy, there were no statistically significant differences in any of the four endpoints for either sequence. 8-year intention-to-treat estimates (each with SE ≤1·1%) for letrozole monotherapy, letrozole followed by tamoxifen, and tamoxifen followed by letrozole were 78·6%, 77·8%, 77·3% for disease-free survival; 87·5%, 87·7%, 85·9% for overall survival; 89·9%, 88·7%, 88·1% for DRFI; and 86·1%, 85·3%, 84·3% for BCFI. INTERPRETATION: For postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early breast cancer, a reduction in breast cancer recurrence and mortality is obtained by letrozole monotherapy when compared with tamoxifen montherapy. Sequential treatments involving tamoxifen and letrozole do not improve outcome compared with letrozole monotherapy, but might be useful strategies when considering an individual patient's risk of recurrence and treatment tolerability. FUNDING: Novartis, United States National Cancer Institute, International Breast Cancer Study Group.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

A specific HPLC method for determination of beta-blockers topically used in ophthalmological diseases.

A HPLC method is presented for the identification and quantification in plasma and urine of beta-adrenergic receptor antagonists (betaxolol, carteolol, metipranolol, and timolol) commonly prescribed in ophthalmology. An extraction method is described using pindolol as an internal standard. An RSIL 10 micron column was used. The lower detection limits of the beta-blockers were found to be 4-27 ng/ml. This method is simple, rapid and sensitive; moreover, it allows the determination of 8 other beta-blockers.

Incline, speed, and distance assessment during unconstrained walking.

Body accelerations during human walking were recorded by a portable measuring device. A new method for parameterizing body accelerations and finding the pattern of walking is outlined. Two neural networks were designed to recognize each pattern and estimate the speed and incline of walking. Six subjects performed treadmill walking followed by self-paced walking on an outdoor test circuit involving roads of various inclines. The neural networks were first "trained" by known patterns of treadmill walking. Then the inclines, the speeds, and the distance covered during overground walking (outdoor circuit) were estimated. The results show a good agreement between actual and predicted variables. The standard deviation of estimated incline was less than 2.6% and the maximum of the coefficient of variation of speed estimation is 6%. To the best of our knowledge, these results constitute the first assessment of speed, incline and distance covered during level and slope walking and offer investigators a new tool for assessing levels of outdoor physical activity.

A new accelerometric method to assess the daily walking practice.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method to obtain a profile of the duration and intensity (speed) of walking periods over 24 hours in women under free-living conditions. DESIGN: A new method based on accelerometry was designed for analyzing walking activity. In order to take into account inter-individual variability of acceleration, an individual calibration process was used. Different experiments were performed to highlight the variability of acceleration vs walking speed relationship, to analyze the speed prediction accuracy of the method, and to test the assessment of walking distance and duration over 24-h. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight women were studied (mean+/-s.d.) age: 39.3+/-8.9 y; body mass: 79.7+/-11.1 kg; body height: 162.9+/-5.4 cm; and body mass index (BMI) 30.0+/-3.8 kg/m(2). RESULTS: Accelerometer output was significantly correlated with speed during treadmill walking (r=0.95, P<0.01), and short unconstrained walks (r=0.86, P<0.01), although with a large inter-individual variation of the regression parameters. By using individual calibration, it was possible to predict walking speed on a standard urban circuit (predicted vs measured r=0.93, P<0.01, s.e.e.=0.51 km/h). In the free-living experiment, women spent on average 79.9+/-36.0 (range: 31.7-168.2) min/day in displacement activities, from which discontinuous short walking activities represented about 2/3 and continuous ones 1/3. Total walking distance averaged 2.1+/-1.2 (range: 0.4-4.7) km/day. It was performed at an average speed of 5.0+/-0.5 (range: 4.1-6.0) km/h. CONCLUSION: An accelerometer measuring the anteroposterior acceleration of the body can estimate walking speed together with the pattern, intensity and duration of daily walking activity.

FluxEXPLORER: a new high-speed laser Doppler imaging system for the assessment of burn injuries.

BACKGROUND: Deep burn assessment made by clinical evaluation has an accuracy varying between 60% and 80% and will determine if a burn injury will need tangential excision and skin grafting or if it will be able to heal spontaneously. Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI) techniques allow an improved burn depth assessment but their use is limited by the time-consuming image acquisition which may take up to 6 min per image. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness and reliability of a newly developed full-field LDI technology, 15 consecutive patients presenting with intermediate depth burns were assessed both clinically and by FluxExplorer LDI technology. Comparison between the two methods of assessment was carried out. RESULTS: Image acquisition was done within 6 s. FluxEXPLORER LDI technology achieved a significantly improved accuracy of burn depth assessment compared to the clinical judgement performed by board certified plastic and reconstructive surgeons (P < 0.05, 93% of correctly assessed burns injuries vs. 80% for clinical assessment). CONCLUSION: Technological improvements of LDI technology leading to a decreased image acquisition time and reliable burn depth assessment allow the routine use of such devices in the acute setting of burn care without interfering with the patient's treatment. Rapid and reliable LDI technology may assist clinicians in burn depth assessment and may limit the morbidity of burn patients through a minimization of the area of surgical debridement. Future technological improvements allowing the miniaturization of the device will further ease its clinical application.

Preliminary assessment of rockslide and rockfall hazards using a DEM (Oppstadhornet, Norway)

The increasing availability and precision of digital elevation model (DEM) helps in the assessment of landslide prone areas where only few data are available. This approach is performed in 6 main steps which include: DEM creation; identification of geomorphologic features; determination of the main sets of discontinuities; mapping of the most likely dangerous structures; preliminary rock-fall assessment; estimation of the large instabilities volumes. The method is applied to two the cases studies in the Oppstadhornet mountain (730m alt): (1) a 10 millions m3 slow-moving rockslide and (2) a potential high-energy rock falling prone area. The orientations of the foliation and of the major discontinuities have been determined directly from the DEM. These results are in very good agreement with field measurements. Spatial arrangements of discontinuities and foliation with the topography revealed hazardous structures. Maps of potential occurrence of these hazardous structures show highly probable sliding areas at the foot of the main landslide and potential rock falls in the eastern part of the mountain.

Angiofil-mediated visualization of the vascular system by microcomputed tomography: a feasibility study.

Visualization of the vascular systems of organs or of small animals is important for an assessment of basic physiological conditions, especially in studies that involve genetically manipulated mice. For a detailed morphological analysis of the vascular tree, it is necessary to demonstrate the system in its entirety. In this study, we present a new lipophilic contrast agent, Angiofil, for performing postmortem microangiography by using microcomputed tomography. The new contrast agent was tested in 10 wild-type mice. Imaging of the vascular system revealed vessels down to the caliber of capillaries, and the digital three-dimensional data obtained from the scans allowed for virtual cutting, amplification, and scaling without destroying the sample. By use of computer software, parameters such as vessel length and caliber could be quantified and remapped by color coding onto the surface of the vascular system. The liquid Angiofil is easy to handle and highly radio-opaque. Because of its lipophilic abilities, it is retained intravascularly, hence it facilitates virtual vessel segmentation, and yields an enduring signal which is advantageous during repetitive investigations, or if samples need to be transported from the site of preparation to the place of actual analysis, respectively. These characteristics make Angiofil a promising novel contrast agent; when combined with microcomputed tomography, it has the potential to turn into a powerful method for rapid vascular phenotyping.

Quantitative antibiogram as a typing method for the prospective epidemiological surveillance and control of MRSA: comparison with molecular typing.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluation of the quantitative antibiogram as an epidemiological tool for the prospective typing of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), and comparison with ribotyping. METHODS: The method is based on the multivariate analysis of inhibition zone diameters of antibiotics in disk diffusion tests. Five antibiotics were used (erythromycin, clindamycin, cotrimoxazole, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin). Ribotyping was performed using seven restriction enzymes (EcoRV, HindIII, KpnI, PstI, EcoRI, SfuI, and BamHI). SETTING: 1,000-bed tertiary university medical center. RESULTS: During a 1-year period, 31 patients were found to be infected or colonized with MRSA. Cluster analysis of antibiogram data showed nine distinct antibiotypes. Four antibiotypes were isolated from multiple patients (2, 4, 7, and 13, respectively). Five additional antibiotypes were isolated from the remaining five patients. When analyzed with respect to the epidemiological data, the method was found to be equivalent to ribotyping. Among 206 staff members who were screened, six were carriers of MRSA. Both typing methods identified concordant of MRSA types in staff members and in the patients under their care. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative antibiogram was found to be equivalent to ribotyping as an epidemiological tool for typing of MRSA in our setting. Thus, this simple, rapid, and readily available method appears to be suitable for the prospective surveillance and control of MRSA for hospitals that do not have molecular typing facilities and in which MRSA isolates are not uniformly resistant or susceptible to the antibiotics tested.

Clinical assessment of fluorescence cytoscopy during transurethral bladder resection in superficial bladder cancer.

The prognosis of superficial bladder cancer in terms of recurrence and disease progression is related to bladder tumor multiplicity and the presence of concomitant "plane" tumors such as high-grade dysplasia and carcinoma in situ. This study in 33 patients aimed to demonstrate the role of fluorescence cystoscopy in transurethral resection of superficial bladder cancer. The method is based on the detection of protoporphyrin-IX-induced fluorescence in urothelial cancer cells by topical administration of 5-aminolevulinic acid. The sensitivity and the specificity of this procedure on apparently normal mucosa in superficial bladder cancer are estimated to be 82.9% and 81.3%, respectively. Thus, fluorescence cytoscopy is a simple and reliable method for mapping the bladder mucosa, especially in the case of multifocal bladder disease, and it facilitates the screening of occult dysplasia.

Assessment of driving capability through the use of clinical and psychomotor tests in relation to blood cannabinoids levels following oral administration of 20 mg dronabinol or of a cannabis decoction made with 20 or 60 mg Delta9-THC.

Delta(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is frequently found in the blood of drivers suspected of driving under the influence of cannabis or involved in traffic crashes. The present study used a double-blind crossover design to compare the effects of medium (16.5 mg THC) and high doses (45.7 mg THC) of hemp milk decoctions or of a medium dose of dronabinol (20 mg synthetic THC, Marinol on several skills required for safe driving. Forensic interpretation of cannabinoids blood concentrations were attempted using the models proposed by Daldrup (cannabis influencing factor or CIF) and Huestis and coworkers. First, the time concentration-profiles of THC, 11-hydroxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (11-OH-THC) (active metabolite of THC), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) in whole blood were determined by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-negative ion chemical ionization. Compared to smoking studies, relatively low concentrations were measured in blood. The highest mean THC concentration (8.4 ng/mL) was achieved 1 h after ingestion of the strongest decoction. Mean maximum 11-OH-THC level (12.3 ng/mL) slightly exceeded that of THC. THCCOOH reached its highest mean concentration (66.2 ng/mL) 2.5-5.5 h after intake. Individual blood levels showed considerable intersubject variability. The willingness to drive was influenced by the importance of the requested task. Under significant cannabinoids influence, the participants refused to drive when they were asked whether they would agree to accomplish several unimportant tasks, (e.g., driving a friend to a party). Most of the participants reported a significant feeling of intoxication and did not appreciate the effects, notably those felt after drinking the strongest decoction. Road sign and tracking testing revealed obvious and statistically significant differences between placebo and treatments. A marked impairment was detected after ingestion of the strongest decoction. A CIF value, which relies on the molar ratio of main active to inactive cannabinoids, greater than 10 was found to correlate with a strong feeling of intoxication. It also matched with a significant decrease in the willingness to drive, and it matched also with a significant impairment in tracking performances. The mathematic model II proposed by Huestis et al. (1992) provided at best a rough estimate of the time of oral administration with 27% of actual values being out of range of the 95% confidence interval. The sum of THC and 11-OH-THC blood concentrations provided a better estimate of impairment than THC alone. This controlled clinical study points out the negative influence on fitness to drive after medium or high dose oral THC or dronabinol.

Affective state and voice : cross-cultural assessment of speaking behavior and voice sound characteristics : a normative multicenter study of 577 + 36 healthy subjects

BACKGROUND: Human speech is greatly influenced by the speakers' affective state, such as sadness, happiness, grief, guilt, fear, anger, aggression, faintheartedness, shame, sexual arousal, love, amongst others. Attentive listeners discover a lot about the affective state of their dialog partners with no great effort, and without having to talk about it explicitly during a conversation or on the phone. On the other hand, speech dysfunctions, such as slow, delayed or monotonous speech, are prominent features of affective disorders. METHODS: This project was comprised of four studies with healthy volunteers from Bristol (English: n = 117), Lausanne (French: n = 128), Zurich (German: n = 208), and Valencia (Spanish: n = 124). All samples were stratified according to gender, age, and education. The specific study design with different types of spoken text along with repeated assessments at 14-day intervals allowed us to estimate the 'natural' variation of speech parameters over time, and to analyze the sensitivity of speech parameters with respect to form and content of spoken text. Additionally, our project included a longitudinal self-assessment study with university students from Zurich (n = 18) and unemployed adults from Valencia (n = 18) in order to test the feasibility of the speech analysis method in home environments. RESULTS: The normative data showed that speaking behavior and voice sound characteristics can be quantified in a reproducible and language-independent way. The high resolution of the method was verified by a computerized assignment of speech parameter patterns to languages at a success rate of 90%, while the correct assignment to texts was 70%. In the longitudinal self-assessment study we calculated individual 'baselines' for each test person along with deviations thereof. The significance of such deviations was assessed through the normative reference data. CONCLUSIONS: Our data provided gender-, age-, and language-specific thresholds that allow one to reliably distinguish between 'natural fluctuations' and 'significant changes'. The longitudinal self-assessment study with repeated assessments at 1-day intervals over 14 days demonstrated the feasibility and efficiency of the speech analysis method in home environments, thus clearing the way to a broader range of applications in psychiatry. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Rapid fluidic exchange microsystem for recording of fast ion channel kinetics in Xenopus oocytes.

We present a new lab-on-a-chip system for electrophysiological measurements on Xenopus oocytes. Xenopus oocytes are widely used host cells in the field of pharmacological studies and drug development. We developed a novel non-invasive technique using immobilized non-devitellinized cells that replaces the traditional "two-electrode voltage-clamp" (TEVC) method. In particular, rapid fluidic exchange was implemented on-chip to allow recording of fast kinetic events of exogenous ion channels expressed in the cell membrane. Reducing fluidic exchange times of extracellular reagent solutions is a great challenge with these large millimetre-sized cells. Fluidic switching is obtained by shifting the laminar flow interface in a perfusion channel under the cell by means of integrated poly-dimethylsiloxane (PDMS) microvalves. Reagent solution exchange times down to 20 ms have been achieved. An on-chip purging system allows to perform complex pharmacological protocols, making the system suitable for screening of ion channel ligand libraries. The performance of the integrated rapid fluidic exchange system was demonstrated by investigating the self-inhibition of human epithelial sodium channels (ENaC). Our results show that the response time of this ion channel to a specific reactant is about an order of magnitude faster than could be estimated with the traditional TEVC technique.

High-resolution ultrasonography of subretinal structure and assessment of retina degeneration in rat.

The purpose of this work was to evaluate the ability of 80 MHz ultrasonography to differentiate intra-retinal layers and quantitatively assess photoreceptor dystrophy in small animal models. Four groups of 10 RCS rats each (five dystrophic and five controls) were explored at 25, 35, 45 and 55 days post-natal (PN). A series of retina cross-sections were obtained ex vivo from outside intact eyes using an 80 MHz three-dimensional ultrasound backscatter microscope (20-microm-axial resolution). Ultrasound features of normal retina were correlated to those of corresponding histology and thickness measurements of photoreceptor segment and nuclear layers were performed on all groups. To show the ability of 80 MHz ultrasonography to distinguish the retinal degeneration in vivo, one RCS rat was explored at 25 and 55 days post-natal. Ultrasound image of normal retina displayed four distinct layers marked by reflections at neurites/nuclei interfaces and permitted to differentiate the photoreceptor segment and nuclear layers. The backscatter level from the retina was shown to be related to the size, density and organization of the intra-layer structure. Ultrasound thickness measurements highly correlated with histologic measurements. A thinning (p<0.05) of outer nuclear layer (ONL) was detected over time for controls and was thought to be assigned to retina maturation. Retinal degeneration started at PN35 and resulted in a more pronounced ONL thinning (p<0.05) over time. ONL degeneration was accompanied by segment layer thickening (p<0.05) at PN35 and thinning thereafter. These changes may indicate accumulation of outer segment debris at PN35 then progressive destruction. In vivo images of rat intra-retinal structure showed the ability of the method to distinguish the photoreceptor layer changes. Our results indicate that 80 MHz ultrasonography reveals intra-retinal layers and is sensitive to age and degenerative changes of photoreceptors. This technique has great potential to follow-up retinal dystrophy and therapeutic effects in vivo.

Assessment of debris-flow susceptibility at medium-scale in the Barcelonnette Basin, France

Debris flows are among the most dangerous processes in mountainous areas due to their rapid rate of movement and long runout zone. Sudden and rather unexpected impacts produce not only damages to buildings and infrastructure but also threaten human lives. Medium- to regional-scale susceptibility analyses allow the identification of the most endangered areas and suggest where further detailed studies have to be carried out. Since data availability for larger regions is mostly the key limiting factor, empirical models with low data requirements are suitable for first overviews. In this study a susceptibility analysis was carried out for the Barcelonnette Basin, situated in the southern French Alps. By means of a methodology based on empirical rules for source identification and the empirical angle of reach concept for the 2-D runout computation, a worst-case scenario was first modelled. In a second step, scenarios for high, medium and low frequency events were developed. A comparison with the footprints of a few mapped events indicates reasonable results but suggests a high dependency on the quality of the digital elevation model. This fact emphasises the need for a careful interpretation of the results while remaining conscious of the inherent assumptions of the model used and quality of the input data.