Manipulating sex ratio to increase population growth: the example of the Lesser Kestrel

Small or decreasing populations call for emergency actions like, for example, captive breeding programs. Such programs aim at rapidly increasing population sizes in order to reduce the loss of genetic variability and to avoid possible Allee effects. The Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni is one of the species that is currently supported in several captive breeding programs at various locations. Here, we model the demographic and genetic consequences of potential management strategies that are based on offspring sex ratio manipulation. Increased population growth could be achieved by manipulating female conditions and/or male attractiveness in the captive breeders and consequently shifting the offspring sex ratio towards more female offspring, which are then used for reintroduction. Fragmenting populations into wild-breeding and captive-breeding demes and manipulating population sex ratio both immediately increase the inbreeding coefficient in the next generation (i.e. decrease N-e) but may, in the long term, reduce the loss of genetic variability if population growth is restricted by the number of females. We use the Lesser Kestrel and the wealth of information that is available on this species to predict the long-term consequences of various kinds of sex-ratio manipulation. We find that, in our example and possibly in many other cases, a sex-ratio manipulation that seems realistic could have a beneficial effect on the captive breeding program. However, the possible long-term costs and benefits of such measures need to be carefully optimized.

The influence of environmental spatial structure on the life history traits and diversity of species in a metacommunity

Several models have been proposed to understand how so many species can coexist in ecosystems. Despite evidence showing that natural habitats are often patchy and fragmented, these models rarely take into account environmental spatial structure. In this study we investigated the influence of spatial structure in habitat and disturbance regime upon species' traits and species' coexistence in a metacommunity. We used a population-based model to simulate competing species in spatially explicit landscapes. The species traits we focused on were dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate. Communities were characterized by their species richness and by the four life-history traits averaged over all the surviving species. Our results show that spatial structure and disturbance have a strong influence on the equilibrium life-history traits within a metacommunity. In the absence of disturbance, spatially structured landscapes favour species investing more in reproduction, but less in dispersal and survival. However, this influence is strongly dependent on the disturbance rate, pointing to an important interaction between spatial structure and disturbance. This interaction also plays a role in species coexistence. While spatial structure tends to reduce diversity in the absence of disturbance, the tendency is reversed when disturbance occurs. In conclusion, the spatial structure of communities is an important determinant of their diversity and characteristic traits. These traits are likely to influence important ecological properties such as resistance to invasion or response to climate change, which in turn will determine the fate of ecosystems facing the current global ecological crisis.

Opportunity for sexual selection and effective population size in the lek-breeding European treefrog (Hyla arborea).

Sexual selection in lek-breeding species might drastically lower male effective population size, with potentially important consequences for evolutionary and conservation biology. Using field-monitoring and parental-assignment methods, we analyzed sex-specific variances in breeding success in a population of European treefrogs, to (1) help understanding the dynamics of genetic variance at sex-specific loci, and (2) better quantify the risk posed by genetic drift in this species locally endangered by habitat fragmentation. The variance in male mating success turned out to be markedly lower than values obtained from other amphibian species with polygamous mating systems. The ratio of effective breeding size to census breeding size was only slightly lower in males (0.44) than in females (0.57), in line with the patterns of genetic diversity previously reported from H. arborea sex chromosomes. Combining our results with data on age at maturity and adult survival, we show that the negative effect of the mating system is furthermore compensated by the effect of delayed maturity, so that the estimated instantaneous effective size broadly corresponded to census breeding size. We conclude that the lek-breeding system of treefrogs impacts only weakly the patterns of genetic diversity on sex-linked genes and the ability of natural populations to resist genetic drift.

Model development for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) habitat in the Jura Mountains (Western Switzerland)

Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals.

Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.

Extreme population differentiation in vulnerable slavemaking ant with fragmented distribution

Understanding levels of population differentiation and inbreeding are important issues in conservation biology, especially for social Hymenoptera with fragmented and small population sizes. Isolated populations are more vulnerable to genetic loss and extinction than those with extended continuous distributions. However, small populations are not always a consequence of a recent reduction of their habitat. Thus, determining the history of population isolation and current patterns of genetic variation of a species is crucial for its conservation. Rossomyrmex minuchae is a slave-making ant with patchy distribution in South Eastern Spain and is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN. In contrast, the other three known species of the genus are presumed to show more uniform distributions. Here we investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of R. minuchae and compare it with that found in two other species of the genus: R. anatolicus and R. quandratinodum. We conclude that although genetic diversity of R. minuchae is low, there is no evidence of a recent bottleneck, suggesting a gradual and natural fragmentation process. We also show extreme population differentiation at nuclear and mitochondrial markers, and isolation by distance at a local scale. Despite some evidence for inbreeding and low genetic variation within populations, we found almost no diploid males, a finding which contrasts with that expected in inbred Hymenoptera with single locus complementary sex determination. This could mean that sex is determined by another mechanism. We argue that continued low population size means that detrimental effects of inbreeding and low genetic variation are likely in the future. We suggest that a policy of artificial gene flow aimed at increasing within population variation is considered as a management option.

The IBO germination quantitative trait locus encodes a phosphatase 2C-related variant with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that interferes with abscisic acid signaling.

Natural genetic variation is crucial for adaptability of plants to different environments. Seed dormancy prevents precocious germination in unsuitable conditions and is an adaptation to a major macro-environmental parameter, the seasonal variation in temperature and day length. Here we report the isolation of IBO, a quantitative trait locus (QTL) that governs c. 30% of germination rate variance in an Arabidopsis recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the parental accessions Eilenburg-0 (Eil-0) and Loch Ness-0 (Lc-0). IBO encodes an uncharacterized phosphatase 2C-related protein, but neither the Eil-0 nor the Lc-0 variant, which differ in a single amino acid, have any appreciable phosphatase activity in in vitro assays. However, we found that the amino acid change in the Lc-0 variant of the IBO protein confers reduced germination rate. Moreover, unlike the Eil-0 variant of the protein, the Lc-0 variant can interfere with the activity of the phosphatase 2C ABSCISIC ACID INSENSITIVE 1 in vitro. This suggests that the Lc-0 variant possibly interferes with abscisic acid signaling, a notion that is supported by physiological assays. Thus, we isolated an example of a QTL allele with a nonsynonymous amino acid change that might mediate local adaptation of seed germination timing.

MOLECULAR MECHANISMS OF A ROOT SYSTEM TO SOIL ADAPTATION

Contrairement aux animaux, les plantes sont des organismes sessiles qui ne possèdent pas de mécanismes de fuite quand les conditions environnementales ne sont plus optimales. Les plantes sont physiquement ancrées à l'endroit où elles ont germées et aux conditions environnementales qui parfois peuvent être extrêmes. Les possibilités d'acclimatation de différentes espèces, parfois même de groupes de plantes au sein d'une même espèce, peuvent varier mais repose sur une adaptation génétique de la plante. L'adaptation est un long processus qui repose sur l'apparition spontanée de mutations génétiques, leur mise à l'épreuve face aux conditions environnementales, et dans le cas où la mutation a un impact positif sur la survie dans cet habitat particulier, elle sera maintenue dans une population donnée de plantes. De telles populations, appelées écotypes, sont le matériel de départ pour la découverte de gènes qui induisent un bénéfice pour la plante dans un environnement donné. La plante la plus étudiée en biologie moléculaire est Arabidopsis thaliana, l'arabette des prés. Dans une étude précédente, les racines d'écotypes naturels d'Arabidopsis ont été comparées et un écotype, Uk-1, avait le système racinaire le plus particulier. Cet écotype possède des racines beaucoup plus courtes et plus ramifiées que tous les autres écotypes. Des analyses plus poussées ont montré qu'une seule mutation dans un gène était la cause de ce phénotype, le gène BREVIS RADIX (BRX), mot latin signifiant 'racine courte'. Bien que l'on connaisse le gène BRX, on connaît finalement peu de choses sur son importance adaptative. Dans cette étude, nous avons montré que la mutation dans le gène BRX rend la plante plus résistante aux sols acides. Dans l'optique de mieux comprendre cette valeur adaptative du mutant brx, nous avons analysé dans quels tissus le gène BRX jouait un rôle important. Nous avons pu mettre en évidence que BRX est important pour le développement du protophloème. Le protophloème est un élément du système vasculaire de la plante. En général, les plantes supérieures possèdent deux systèmes de transport à longue distance. L'un d'eux, appelé xylème, transporte l'eau et les nutriments absorbés du sol par les racines vers les feuilles. Les feuilles sont le siège du processus de photosynthèse au cours duquel sont produits des sucres qui devront être distribués partout dans les autres parties de la plante. Le tissu cellulaire chargé de livrer les produits de la photosynthèse, ainsi que les régulateurs de croissance, est le phloème. Ce dernier regroupe le métaphloème et le protophloème. Le protophloème est essentiel pour la livraison des sucres synthétisés ainsi que des signaux de croissance aux pointes des racines, centres organogéniques responsables de la production de nouvelles cellules durant la phase de croissance de la racine. La structure du protophloème peut être décrite comme des tubes continus, vides et résistants, faits de cellules spécialisées qui permettent un transport efficace et rapide. Nous avons montré que dans les mutants brx ces canaux de transports sont discontinus car certaines cellules n'ont pas terminé leur cycle de différenciation. Ces cellules obstruent le conduit ce qui fait que les sucres et les signaux de croissance, comme l'auxine, ne peuvent plus être transportés aux méristèmes. En conséquence, la prolifération de l'activité des méristèmes est compromise, ce qui explique les racines courtes. Au lieu d'être délivré aux méristèmes, l'auxine se concentre en amont des méristèmes où cela provoque l'apparition de nouvelles racines branchées et, très probablement, l'activation des pompes à protons. Sur des sols acides, la concentration en ion H+ est très élevée. Ces ions entrent dans les cellules de la racine par diffusion et perturbent notablement la croissance des racines et de la plante en général. Si les cellules de la racine possédaient des pompes à protons hyperactives, elles seraient capable d'évacuer le surplus d'ions H+ en dehors de la cellule, ce qui leur assurerait de meilleures chances de survie sur sols acides. De fait, le mutant brx est capable d'acidifier le milieu de culture dans lequel il est cultivé plus efficacement que la plante sauvage. Ce mutant est également capable de donner plus de progéniture sur ce type de milieu de croissance que les plantes sauvages. Finalement, nous avons trouvé d'autres mutants brx en milieu naturel poussant sur sols acides, ce qui suggère fortement que la mutation du gène BRX est une des causes de l'adaptation aux sols acides. -- Plants as sessile organisms have developed different mechanisms to cope with the complex environmental conditions in which they live. Adaptation is the process through which traits evolve by natural selection to functionally improve in a given environmental context. An adaptation to the environment is characterized by the genetic changes in the entire populations that have been fixed by natural selection over many generations. BREVIS RADIX (BRX) gene was found through natural Arabidopsis accessions screen and was characterized as a root growth regulator since loss-of-function mutants exhibit arrested post-embryonic primary root growth in addition to a more branched root system. Although brx loss-of-function causes a complete alteration in root architecture, BRX activity is only required in the root vasculature, in particular in protophloem cell file. Protophloem is a part of the phloem transport network and is responsible for delivery of photo-assimilates and growth regulators, coming from the shoot through mature phloem component - metaphloem, to the all plant primary meristems. In order to perform its function, protophloem is the first cell file to differentiate within the root meristem. During this process, protophloem cells undergo a partial programmed cell death, during which they build a thicker cell wall, degrade nucleus and tonoplast while plasma membrane stays functional. Interestingly, protophloem cells enter elongation process only after differentiation into sieve elements is completed. Here we show that brx mutants fail to differentiate protophloem cell file properly, a phenotype that can be distinguished by a presence of a "gap" cells, non-differentiated cells between two flanking differentiated cells. Discontinuity of protophloem differentiation in brx mutants is considered to be a consequence of local hyperactivity of CLAVATA3/EMBRYO SURROUNDING REGION 45 (CLE45) - BARELY ANY MERISTEM 3 (BAM3) signaling module. Interestingly, a CLE45 activity, most probably at the level of receptor binding, can be modulated by apoplastic pH. Altogether, our results imply that the activity of proton pumps, expressed in non-differentiated cells of protophloem, must be maintained under certain threshold, otherwise CLE45-BAM3 signaling pathway will be stimulated and in turn protophloem will not differentiate. Based on vacuolar morphology, a premature cell wall acidification in brx mutants stochastically prevents the protophloem differentiation. Only after protophloem differentiates, proton pumps can be activated in order to acidify apoplast and to support enucleated protophloem multifold elongation driven by surrounding cells growth. Finally, the protophloem differentiation failure would result in an auxin "traffic jam" in the upper parts of the root, created from the phloem-transported auxin that cannot be efficiently delivered to the meristem. Physiologically, auxin "leakage" from the plant vasculature network could have various consequences, since auxin is involved in the regulation of almost every aspect of plant growth and development. Thus, given that auxin stimulates lateral roots initiation and growth, this scenario explains more branched brx root system. Nevertheless, auxin is considered to activate plasma membrane proton pumps. Along with this, it has been shown that brx mutants acidify media much more than the wild type plants do, a trait that was proposed as an adaptive feature of naturally occurring brx null alleles in Arabidopsis populations found on acidic soils. Additionally, in our study we found that most of accessions originally collected from acidic sampling sites exhibit hypersensitivity to CLE45 treatment. This implies that adaptation of plants to acidic soil involves a positive selection pressure against upstream negative regulators of CLE45-BAM3 signaling, such as BRX. Perspective analysis of these accessions would provide more profound understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying plant adaptation to acidic soils. All these results are suggesting that targeting of the factors that affect protophloem differentiation is a good strategy of natural selection to change the root architecture and to develop an adaptation to a certain environment. -- Les plantes comme organismes sessiles ont développé différents mécanismes pour s'adapter aux conditions environnementales complexes dans lesquelles elles vivent. L'adaptation est le processus par lequel des traits vont évoluer via la sélection naturelle vers une amélioration fonctionnelle dans un contexte environnemental donné. Une adaptation à l'environnement est caractérisée par des changements génétiques dans des populations entières qui ont été fixés par la sélection naturelle sur plusieurs générations. Le gène BREVIS RADIX (BRX) a été identifié dans le crible d'une collection d'accessions naturelles d'Arabidopsis et a été caractérisé comme un régulateur de la croissance racinaire étant donné que le mutant perte-de-fonction montre une croissance racinaire primaire arrêtée au stade post-embryonnaire et présente de plus un système racinaire plus ramifié que la plante sauvage. Bien que le mutant perte-de-fonction brx cause une altération complète de l'architecture racinaire, l'activité de BRX n'est requise que dans la vascularisation racinaire, en particulier au niveau du protophloème. Le protophloème est un composant du réseau de transport du phloème et est responsable du transit des dérivés de la photosynthèse ainsi que des régulateurs de croissances, venant de la partie aérienne par le phloème mature (métaphloème) vers tous les méristèmes primaires de la plante. Pour pouvoir réaliser sa fonction, le protophloème est la première file de cellules à se différencier à l'intérieur du méristème de la racine. Pendant ce processus, les cellules du protophloème subissent une mort cellulaire programmée partielle durant laquelle elles épaississent leur paroi cellulaire, dégradent le noyau et le tonoplaste tandis que la membrane plasmique demeure fonctionnelle. De manière intéressante, les cellules du protophloème entament le processus d'allongement seulement après que la différenciation en tubes criblés soit complète. Ce travail montre que le mutant brx est incapable de mener à bien la différenciation de la file de cellules du protophloème, phénotype qui peut être visualisé par la présence de cellules 'trous', de cellules non différenciées entourées de deux cellules différenciées. La discontinuité de la différenciation du phloème dans le mutant brx est considérée comme la conséquence de l'hyperactivité localisée du module de signalisation CLA VA TA3/EMBRYO SURROUNDING REGION 45 (CLE45) - BARELY ANY MERISTEM 3 (BAM3). De manière intéressante, l'activité de CLE45, très probablement au niveau de la liaison avec le récepteur, peut être modulé par le pH apoplastique. Pris ensemble, nos résultats impliquent que l'activité des pompes à protons, actives dans les cellules non différenciées du protophloème, doit être maintenue en dessous d'un certain seuil autrement la cascade de signalisation CLE45-BAM3 serait stimulée, en conséquence de quoi le protophloème ne pourrait se différencier. D'après la morphologie vacuolaire, une acidification prématurée de la paroi cellulaire dans le mutant brx empêche la différenciation du protophloème de manière stochastique. Une fois que le protophloème se différencie, les pompes à protons peuvent alors être activées afin d'acidifier l'apoplaste et ainsi faciliter l'allongement des cellules énuclées du protophloème, entraînées par la croissance des cellules environnantes. Finalement, la différenciation défectueuse du protophloème produit une accumulation d'auxine dans la partie supérieure de la racine car le phloème ne peut plus acheminer efficacement l'auxine au méristème. Physiologiquement, la 'fuite' d'auxine à partir du réseau vasculaire de la plante peut avoir des conséquences variées puisque l'auxine est impliquée dans la régulation de la majorité des aspects de la croissance et développement de la plante. Etant donné que l'auxine stimule l'initiation et développement des racines latérales, ce scénario pourrait expliquer le système racinaire plus ramifié du mutant brx. En plus, l'auxine est considérée comme un activateur des pompes à protons. Par ailleurs, nous avons montré que les mutants brx ont la capacité d'acidifier le milieu plus efficacement que les plantes sauvages, une caractéristique des populations sauvages <¥Arabidopsis poussant sur des sols acides et contenant les allèles délétés brx. De plus, dans nos résultats nous avons mis en évidence que la plupart des accessions collectées originellement sur des sites acidophiles montre une hypersensibilité au traitement par CLE45. Ceci implique que l'adaptation des plantes aux sols acides repose sur la pression de sélection positive à rencontre des régulateurs négatifs de CLE45- BAM3, situés en amont de la cascade, tel le produit du gène BRX. Les analyses de ces accessions pourraient aboutir à une meilleure compréhension des mécanismes moléculaires responsables de l'adaptation des plantes aux sols acides. Tous nos résultats suggèrent que le ciblage des facteurs affectant la différenciation du protophloème serait une stratégie gagnante dans la sélection naturelle pour changer l'architecture de la racine et ainsi s'adapter efficacement à un nouvel environnement.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Erosion and channel change as factors of landslides and valley formation in Champlain sea clays: The Chacoura river, Quebec, Canada

The Champlain Sea clays of Eastern Canada are incised by numerous rivers. Their slopes have been modified by landslides: on the Chacoura River near Trois-Rivières (Quebec), several large landslide scars, more or less recent, are visible. The role of erosion (channel incision, lateral channel migration and erosion of slopes due to agricultural drainage) as a trigger of these landslides is important. The aim of this study is to understand how erosion and landslides are related to valley development. From a detailed analysis of aerial photographs and DEMs, a map of the phenomena has been drawn by identifying various elements such as landslides, limits of the slope, position of the channel, and the area covered by forest. It is shown that channel change and erosion are strongly linked to landslides by the fact that they change the bank morphology in an unstable way. A slide in itself is a natural way for the slope to achieve stability. But when it occurs in a stream, it creates a disturbance to the stream flow enhancing local erosion which may change the river path and generate more erosion downstream or upstream resulting in more slides. Cross-valley sections and a longitudinal profile show that landslides are a major factor of valley formation. It appears that the upper part of the Chacoura River valley is still unaffected by landslides and has V-shaped sections. The lower part has been subject to intense erosion and many landslide scars can be seen. This shows that the valley morphology is transient, and that future activity is more likely to occur in the upper part of the river. Therefore the identification of areas prone to erosion will help determine the possible location of future large landslides just like the ones that occurred in the lower part.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Gender and socioeconomic disparities in BMI trajectories in the Seychelles using birth cohorts generated from serial population-based surveys.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) tends to change over time and across populations. In this study, we examined, separately in men and women, whether the association between BMI and SES changed over successive birth cohorts in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African region). METHODS: We used data from all participants in three surveys conducted in 1989, 1994 and 2004 in independent random samples of the population aged 25-64 years in the Seychelles (N= 3'403). We used linear regression to model mean BMI according to age, cohort, SES and smoking status, allowing for a quadratic term for age to account for a curvilinear relation between BMI and age and interactions between SES and age and between SES and cohorts to test whether the relation between SES and BMI changed across subsequent cohorts. All analyses were performed separately in men and women. RESULTS: BMI increased with age in all birth cohorts. BMI was lower in men of low SES than high SES but was higher in women of low SES than high SES. In all SES categories, BMI increased over successive cohorts (1.24 kg/m2 in men and 1.51 kg/m2 for a 10-year increase in birth cohorts, p <0.001). The difference in BMI between men or women of high vs. low SES did not change significantly across successive cohorts (the interaction between SES and year of birth of cohort was statistically not significant). Smoking was associated with lower BMI in men and women (respectively -1.55 kg/m2 and 2.46 kg/m2, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although large differences exist between men and women, social patterning of BMI did not change significantly over successive cohorts in this population of a middle-income country in the African region.

Variable queen number in ant colonies: no impact on queen turnover, inbreeding, and population genetic differentiation in the ant Formica selysi.

Variation in queen number alters the genetic structure of social insect colonies, which in turn affects patterns of kin-selected conflict and cooperation. Theory suggests that shifts from single- to multiple-queen colonies are often associated with other changes in the breeding system, such as higher queen turnover, more local mating, and restricted dispersal. These changes may restrict gene flow between the two types of colonies and it has been suggested that this might ultimately lead to sympatric speciation. We performed a detailed microsatellite analysis of a large population of the ant Formica selysi, which revealed extensive variation in social structure, with 71 colonies headed by a single queen and 41 by multiple queens. This polymorphism in social structure appeared stable over time, since little change in the number of queens per colony was detected over a five-year period. Apart from queen number, single- and multiple-queen colonies had very similar breeding systems. Queen turnover was absent or very low in both types of colonies. Single- and multiple-queen colonies exhibited very small but significant levels of inbreeding, which indicates a slight deviation from random mating at a local scale and suggests that a small proportion of queens mate with related males. For both types of colonies, there was very little genetic structuring above the level of the nest, with no sign of isolation by distance. These similarities in the breeding systems were associated with a complete lack of genetic differentiation between single- and multiple-queen colonies, which provides no support for the hypothesis that change in queen number leads to restricted gene flow between social forms. Overall, this study suggests that the higher rates of queen turnover, local mating, and population structuring that are often associated with multiple-queen colonies do not appear when single- and multiple-queen colonies still coexist within the same population, but build up over time in populations consisting mostly of multiple-queen colonies.

Species-specific population structure in rock-specialized sympatric cichlid species in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa.

Species richness and geographical phenotypic variation in East African lacustrine cichlids are often correlated with ecological specializations and limited dispersal. This study compares mitochondrial and microsatellite genetic diversity and structure among three sympatric rock-dwelling cichlids of Lake Tanganyika, Eretmodus cyanostictus, Tropheus moorii, and Ophthalmotilapia ventralis. The species represent three endemic, phylogenetically distinct tribes (Eretmodini, Tropheini, and Ectodini), and display divergent ecomorphological and behavioral specialization. Sample locations span both continuous, rocky shoreline and a potential dispersal barrier in the form of a muddy bay. High genetic diversity and population differentiation were detected in T. moorii and E. cyanostictus, whereas much lower variation and structure were found in O. ventralis. In particular, while a 7-km-wide muddy bay curtails dispersal in all three species to a similar extent, gene flow along mostly continuous habitat appeared to be controlled by distance in E. cyanostictus, further restricted by site philopatry and/or minor habitat discontinuities in T. moorii, and unrestrained in O. ventralis. In contrast to the general pattern of high gene flow along continuous shorelines in rock-dwelling cichlids of Lake Malawi, our study identifies differences in population structure among stenotopic Lake Tanganyika species. The amount of genetic differentiation among populations was not related to the degree of geographical variation of body color, especially since more phenotypic variation is observed in O. ventralis than in the genetically highly structured E. cyanostictus.