Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

3D crosshole ERT for aquifer characterization and monitoring of infiltrating river water

The hydrogeological properties and responses of a productive aquifer in northeastern Switzerland are investigated. For this purpose, 3D crosshole electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is used to define the main lithological structures within the aquifer (through static inversion) and to monitor the water infiltration from an adjacent river. During precipitation events and subsequent river flooding, the river water resistivity increases. As a consequence, the electrical characteristics of the infiltrating water can be used as a natural tracer to delineate preferential flow paths and flow velocities. The focus is primarily on the experiment installation, data collection strategy, and the structural characterization of the site and a brief overview of the ERT monitoring results. The monitoring system comprises 18 boreholes each equipped with 10 electrodes straddling the entire thickness of the gravel aquifer. A multi-channel resistivity system programmed to cycle through various four-point electrode configurations of the 180 electrodes in a rolling sequence allows for the measurement of approximately 15,500 apparent resistivity values every 7 h on a continuous basis. The 3D static ERT inversion of data acquired under stable hydrological conditions provides a base model for future time-lapse inversion studies and the means to investigate the resolving capability of our acquisition scheme. In particular, it enables definition of the main lithological structures within the aquifer. The final ERT static model delineates a relatively high-resistivity, low-porosity, intermediate-depth layer throughout the investigated aquifer volume that is consistent with results from well logging and seismic and radar tomography models. The next step will be to define and implement an appropriate time-lapse ERT inversion scheme using the river water as a natural tracer. The main challenge will be to separate the superposed time-varying effects of water table height, temperature, and salinity variations associated with the infiltrating water.

Water, energy and early postnatal growth in preterm infants.

Non-invasive methods, including stable isotope techniques, indirect calorimetry, nutritional balance and skinfold thickness, have given a new insight into early postnatal growth in neonates. Neonates and premature infants in particular, create an unusual opportunity to study the fluid and metabolic adaptation to extrauterine life because their physical environment can be controlled, fluid and energy balance can be measured and the link between metabolism and the energetics of their postnatal growth can be assessed accurately. Thus the postnatal time course of total body water, heat production, energy cost of growth and composition of weight gain have been quantified in a series of "healthy" low-birth-weight premature infants. These results show that total body water is remarkably stable between postnatal days 3-21. Energy expenditure and heat production rates increase postnatally from mean values of 40 kcal/kg/day during the first week to 60 kcal/kg/day in the third week. An apparent energy balance deficit of 180 kcal/kg can be ascribed to premature delivery. The cost of protein metabolism is the highest energy demanding process related to growth. The fact that nitrogen balance becomes positive within 72 h after birth places the newborn in a transitional situation of dissociated balance between energy and protein metabolism during early postnatal growth: skinfold thickness, dry body mass and fat decrease, while there is a gain in protein and increase in supine length. This particular situation ends during the second postnatal week and soon thereafter the rate of weight gain matches statural growth. The goals of the following review are to summarize data on total body water and energy metabolism in premature infants and to discuss how they correlate with physiological aspects of early postnatal growth.

Extension of Murray's law using a non-Newtonian model of blood flow.

BACKGROUND: So far, none of the existing methods on Murray's law deal with the non-Newtonian behavior of blood flow although the non-Newtonian approach for blood flow modelling looks more accurate. MODELING: In the present paper, Murray's law which is applicable to an arterial bifurcation, is generalized to a non-Newtonian blood flow model (power-law model). When the vessel size reaches the capillary limitation, blood can be modeled using a non-Newtonian constitutive equation. It is assumed two different constraints in addition to the pumping power: the volume constraint or the surface constraint (related to the internal surface of the vessel). For a seek of generality, the relationships are given for an arbitrary number of daughter vessels. It is shown that for a cost function including the volume constraint, classical Murray's law remains valid (i.e. SigmaR(c) = cste with c = 3 is verified and is independent of n, the dimensionless index in the viscosity equation; R being the radius of the vessel). On the contrary, for a cost function including the surface constraint, different values of c may be calculated depending on the value of n. RESULTS: We find that c varies for blood from 2.42 to 3 depending on the constraint and the fluid properties. For the Newtonian model, the surface constraint leads to c = 2.5. The cost function (based on the surface constraint) can be related to entropy generation, by dividing it by the temperature. CONCLUSION: It is demonstrated that the entropy generated in all the daughter vessels is greater than the entropy generated in the parent vessel. Furthermore, it is shown that the difference of entropy generation between the parent and daughter vessels is smaller for a non-Newtonian fluid than for a Newtonian fluid.

Predicting Non Return to Work after Orthopaedic Trauma: The Wallis Occupational Rehabilitation RisK (WORRK) Model.

BACKGROUND: Workers with persistent disabilities after orthopaedic trauma may need occupational rehabilitation. Despite various risk profiles for non-return-to-work (non-RTW), there is no available predictive model. Moreover, injured workers may have various origins (immigrant workers), which may either affect their return to work or their eligibility for research purposes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model that estimates the likelihood of non-RTW after occupational rehabilitation using predictors which do not rely on the worker's background. METHODS: Prospective cohort study (3177 participants, native (51%) and immigrant workers (49%)) with two samples: a) Development sample with patients from 2004 to 2007 with Full and Reduced Models, b) External validation of the Reduced Model with patients from 2008 to March 2010. We collected patients' data and biopsychosocial complexity with an observer rated interview (INTERMED). Non-RTW was assessed two years after discharge from the rehabilitation. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) and calibration was evaluated with a calibration plot. The model was reduced with random forests. RESULTS: At 2 years, the non-RTW status was known for 2462 patients (77.5% of the total sample). The prevalence of non-RTW was 50%. The full model (36 items) and the reduced model (19 items) had acceptable discrimination performance (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78 and 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.76, respectively) and good calibration. For the validation model, the discrimination performance was acceptable (AUC 0.73; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.77) and calibration was also adequate. CONCLUSIONS: Non-RTW may be predicted with a simple model constructed with variables independent of the patient's education and language fluency. This model is useful for all kinds of trauma in order to adjust for case mix and it is applicable to vulnerable populations like immigrant workers.

Population genetics of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in the Jura and the Pyrenees: a non-invasive approach to avian conservation genetics

RÉSUMÉ Le Grand tétras est un galliforme de montagne apparenté au faisan et au tétras lyre. Il est distribué de manière continue à travers la toundra et les montagnes de moyenne altitude en Europe de l'ouest. Toutefois, les populations d'Europe de l'ouest ont subi un déclin constant au cours des derniers siècles. Les causes de ce déclin sont probablement liées à l'activité humaine, telle .que l'élevage ou le tourisme, qui ont engendré une modification et une fragmentation de l'habitat de l'espèce. Malheureusement, les populations soumises à de forts déclins démographiques peuvent subir des effets génétiques (augmentation de la consanguinité et perte de diversité génétique) pouvant diminuer leur potentiel de reproduction et conduire irrémédiablement à l'extinction. Cette thèse présente les analyses conduites dans le but d'estimer l'impact du déclin démographique des populations de Grand tétras sur l'étendue et la distribution de leur variabilité génétique dans le Jura et dans les Pyrénées. Du fait de la législation locale protégeant les tétraonidés en général, mais également en raison de la biologie très cryptique du Grand tétras, l'ensemble des analyses de cette étude a été réalisé à partir de matériel génétique extrait des fientes (ou échantillonnage génétique non invasif). Dans la première partie de l'étude, je détaille les protocoles d'extraction. d'ADN et d'amplification par PCR modifiés à partir des protocoles classiques utilisant des échantillons conventionnels, riches en ADN. L'utilisation d'ADN fécal impose des contraintes dues à la mauvaise qualité et à la faible quantité du matériel génétique à disposition dans les fientes. Ces contraintes ont pu être partiellement contournées en réalisant des répétitions multiples du génotypage afin d'obtenir un degré de fiabilité suffisante. J'ai également analysé les causes de la dégradation de l'ADN dans les excréments. Parmi les causes les plus communes, telles que l'activité bactérienne, l'hydrolyse spontanée et la dégradation enzymatique par les DNases libres, c'est ce dernier facteur qui apparaît comme étant la cause majeure et la plus rapide responsable de la dégradation de la qualité des échantillons. La rapidité de l'action enzymatique suggère que les plans d'échantillonnages de excréments sur le terrain pourraient être optimisés en les réalisant dans des conditions climatiques froides et sèches, favorisant ainsi l'inhibition des DNases. La seconde partie de la thèse est une étude par simulation visant à déterminer la capacité du logiciel Structure à identifier les structures génétiques complexes et hiérarchiques fréquemment rencontrées dans les populations naturelles, et ce en utilisant différents types de marqueurs génétiques. Les troisième et quatrième parties de cette thèse décrivent le statut génétique des populations résiduelles du Jura et des Pyrénées à partir de l'analyse de 11 loci microsatellites. Nous n'avons pas pu mettre en évidence dans les deux populations des effets liés à la consanguinité ou à la réduction de la diversité génétique. De plus, la différenciation génétique entre les patches d'habitats favorables reste modérée et corrélée à la distance géographique, ce qui suggère que la dispersion d'individus entre les patches a été importante au moins pendant ces dernières générations. La comparaison des paramètres de la diversité génétique avec ceux d'autres populations de Grand tétras, ou d'autres espèces proches, indique que la population du Jura a retenu une proportion importante de sa diversité originelle. Ces résultats suggèrent que le déclin récent des populations a jusqu'ici eu un impact modéré sur les facteurs génétiques et que ces populations semblent avoir conservé le potentiel génétique nécessaire à leur survie à long terme. Finalement, en cinquième partie, l'analyse de l'apparentement entre les mâles qui participent à la parade sur les places de chant (leks) indique que ces derniers sont distribués en agrégats de manière non aléatoire, préférentiellement entre individus apparentés. De plus, la corrélation entre les distances génétique et géographique entre les leks est en accord avec les motifs d'isolement par la distance mis en évidence à d'autres niveaux hiérarchiques (entre patches d'habitat et populations), ainsi qu'avec les études menées sur d'autres espèces ayant choisi ce même système de reproduction. En conclusion, cette première étude basée uniquement sur de l'ADN nucléaire aviaire extrait à partir de fèces a fourni des informations nouvelles qui n'auraient pas pu être obtenues par une méthode d'observation sur le terrain ou d'échantillonnage génétique classique. Aucun oiseau n'a été dérangé ou capturé, et les résultats sont comparables à d'autres études concernant des espèces proches. Néanmoins, la taille de ces populations approche des niveaux au-dessous desquels la survie à long terme est fortement incertaine. La persistance de la diversité génétique pour les prochaines générations reste en conséquence liée à la survie des adultes et à une reprise du succès de la reproduction. ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large grouse that is continuously distributed across the tundra and the mid-high mountains of Western Europe. However, the populations in Western Europe have been showing a constant decline during the last decades. The causes for this decline are possibly related to human activities, such as cattle breeding and tourism that have both led to habitat modification and fragmentation. Unfortunately, populations that have undergone drastic demographic bottlenecks often go through genetic processes of inbreeding and loss of diversity that decrease their fitness and eventually lead to extinction. This thesis presents the investigations conducted to estimate the impact of the demographic decline of capercaillie populations on the extent and distribution of their genetic variability in the Jura and in the Pyrenees mountains. Because grouse are protected by wildlife legislation, and also because of the cryptic behaviour of capercaillie, all DNA material used in this study was extracted from faeces (non-invasive genetic sampling). In the first part of my thesis, I detail the protocols of DNA extraction and PCR amplification adapted from classical methods using conventional DNA-rich samples. The use of faecal DNA imposes specific constraints due to the low quantity and the highly degraded genetic material available. These constraints are partially overcome by performing multiple genotyping repetitions to obtain sufficient reliability. I also investigate the causes of DNA degradation in faeces. Among the main degraders, namely bacterial activity, spontaneous hydrolysis, and free-¬DNase activities, the latter was pointed out as the most important according to our experiments. These enzymes degrade DNA very rapidly, and, as a consequence, faeces sampling schemes must be planned preferably in cold and dry weather conditions, allowing for enzyme activity inhibition. The second part of the thesis is a simulation study aiming to assess the capacity of the software Structure to detect population structure in hierarchical models relevant to situations encountered in wild populations, using several genetic markers. The methods implemented in Structure appear efficient in detecting the highest hierarchical structure. The third and fourth parts of the thesis describe the population genetics status of the remaining Jura and Pyrenees populations using 11 microsatellite loci. In either of these populations, no inbreeding nor reduced genetic diversity was detected. Furthermore, the genetic differentiation between patches defined by habitat suitability remains moderate and correlated with geographical distance, suggesting that significant dispersion between patches was at work at least until the last generations. The comparison of diversity indicators with other species or other populations of capercaillie indicate that population in the Jura has retained a large part of its original genetic diversity. These results suggest that the recent decline has had so forth a moderate impact on• genetic factors and that these populations might have retained the potential for long term survival, if the decline is stopped. Finally, in the fifth part, the analysis of relatedness between males participating in the reproduction parade, or lek, indicate that capercaillie males, like has been shown for some other grouse species, gather on leks• among individuals that are more related than the average of the population. This pattern appears to be due to both population structure and kin-association. As a conclusion, this first study relying exclusively on nuclear DNA extracted from faeces has provided novel information that was not available through field observation or classical genetic sampling. No bird has been captured or disturbed, and the results are consistent with other studies of closely related species. However, the size of these populations is approaching thresholds below which long-term survival is unlikely. The persistence of genetic diversity for the forthcoming generations remains therefore bond to adult survival and to the increase of reproduction success.

Bond strength tests of dental adhesive systems and their correlation with clinical results : a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the variability of bond strength test results of adhesive systems (AS) and to correlate the results with clinical parameters of clinical studies investigating cervical restorations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Regarding the clinical studies, the internal database which had previously been used for a meta-analysis on cervical restorations was updated with clinical studies published between 2008 and 2012 by searching the PubMed and SCOPUS databases. PubMed and the International Association for Dental Research abstracts online were searched for laboratory studies on microtensile, macrotensile and macroshear bond strength tests. The inclusion criteria were (1) dentin, (2) testing of at least four adhesive systems, (3) same diameter of composite and (4) 24h of water storage prior to testing. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration, detectable margins, and a clinical index comprising the three parameters by weighing them. Linear mixed models which included a random study effect were calculated for both, the laboratory and the clinical studies. The variability was assessed by calculating a ratio of variances, dividing the variance among the estimated bonding effects obtained in the linear mixed models by the sum of all variance components estimated in these models. RESULTS: Thirty-two laboratory studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria comprising 183 experiments. Of those, 86 used the microtensile test evaluating 22 adhesive systems (AS). Twenty-seven used the macrotensile test with 17 AS, and 70 used the macroshear test with 24 AS. For 28 AS the results from clinical studies were available. Microtensile and macrotensile (Spearman rho=0.66, p=0.007) were moderately correlated and also microtensile and macroshear (Spearman rho=0.51, p=0.03) but not macroshear and macrotensile (Spearman rho=0.34, p=0.22). The effect of the adhesive system was significant for microtensile and macroshear (p<0.001) but not for macrotensile. The effect of the adhesive system could explain 36% of the variability of the microtensile test, 27% of the macrotensile and 33% of the macroshear test. For the clinical trials, about 49% of the variability of retained restorations could be explained by the adhesive system. With respect to the correlation between bond strength tests and clinical parameters, only a moderate correlation between micro- and macrotensile test results and marginal discoloration was demonstrated. However, no correlation between these tests and a retention loss or marginal integrity was shown. The correlation improved when more studies were included compared to assessing only one study. SIGNIFICANCE: The high variability of bond strength test results highlights the need to establish individual acceptance levels for a given test institute. The weak correlation of bond-strength test results with clinical parameters leads to the conclusion that one should not rely solely on bond strength tests to predict the clinical performance of an adhesive system but one should conduct other laboratory tests like tests on the marginal adaptation of fillings in extracted teeth and the retention loss of restorations in non-retentive cavities after artificial aging.

Establishment and characterization of models of chemotherapy resistance in colorectal cancer: Towards a predictive signature of chemoresistance.

Current standard treatments for metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on combination regimens with one of the two chemotherapeutic drugs, irinotecan or oxaliplatin. However, drug resistance frequently limits the clinical efficacy of these therapies. In order to gain new insights into mechanisms associated with chemoresistance, and departing from three distinct CRC cell models, we generated a panel of human colorectal cancer cell lines with acquired resistance to either oxaliplatin or irinotecan. We characterized the resistant cell line variants with regards to their drug resistance profile and transcriptome, and matched our results with datasets generated from relevant clinical material to derive putative resistance biomarkers. We found that the chemoresistant cell line variants had distinctive irinotecan- or oxaliplatin-specific resistance profiles, with non-reciprocal cross-resistance. Furthermore, we could identify several new, as well as some previously described, drug resistance-associated genes for each resistant cell line variant. Each chemoresistant cell line variant acquired a unique set of changes that may represent distinct functional subtypes of chemotherapy resistance. In addition, and given the potential implications for selection of subsequent treatment, we also performed an exploratory analysis, in relevant patient cohorts, of the predictive value of each of the specific genes identified in our cellular models.

Single breath-hold 3D measurement of left atrial volume using compressed sensing cardiovascular magnetic resonance and a non-model-based reconstruction approach.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) dilatation is associated with a large variety of cardiac diseases. Current cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) strategies to measure LA volumes are based on multi-breath-hold multi-slice acquisitions, which are time-consuming and susceptible to misregistration. AIM: To develop a time-efficient single breath-hold 3D CMR acquisition and reconstruction method to precisely measure LA volumes and function. METHODS: A highly accelerated compressed-sensing multi-slice cine sequence (CS-cineCMR) was combined with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction method to measure LA volumes with high temporal and spatial resolution during a single breath-hold. This approach was validated in LA phantoms of different shapes and applied in 3 patients. In addition, the influence of slice orientations on accuracy was evaluated in the LA phantoms for the new approach in comparison with a conventional model-based biplane area-length reconstruction. As a reference in patients, a self-navigated high-resolution whole-heart 3D dataset (3D-HR-CMR) was acquired during mid-diastole to yield accurate LA volumes. RESULTS: Phantom studies. LA volumes were accurately measured by CS-cineCMR with a mean difference of -4.73 ± 1.75 ml (-8.67 ± 3.54%, r2 = 0.94). For the new method the calculated volumes were not significantly different when different orientations of the CS-cineCMR slices were applied to cover the LA phantoms. Long-axis "aligned" vs "not aligned" with the phantom long-axis yielded similar differences vs the reference volume (-4.87 ± 1.73 ml vs. -4.45 ± 1.97 ml, p = 0.67) and short-axis "perpendicular" vs. "not-perpendicular" with the LA long-axis (-4.72 ± 1.66 ml vs. -4.75 ± 2.13 ml; p = 0.98). The conventional bi-plane area-length method was susceptible for slice orientations (p = 0.0085 for the interaction of "slice orientation" and "reconstruction technique", 2-way ANOVA for repeated measures). To use the 3D-HR-CMR as the reference for LA volumes in patients, it was validated in the LA phantoms (mean difference: -1.37 ± 1.35 ml, -2.38 ± 2.44%, r2 = 0.97). Patient study: The CS-cineCMR LA volumes of the mid-diastolic frame matched closely with the reference LA volume (measured by 3D-HR-CMR) with a difference of -2.66 ± 6.5 ml (3.0% underestimation; true LA volumes: 63 ml, 62 ml, and 395 ml). Finally, a high intra- and inter-observer agreement for maximal and minimal LA volume measurement is also shown. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method combines a highly accelerated single-breathhold compressed-sensing multi-slice CMR technique with a non-model-based 3D reconstruction to accurately and reproducibly measure LA volumes and function.

Data Envelopment Analysis and non-discretionary inputs : How to select the most suitable model using multi-criteria decision analysis

Within Data Envelopment Analysis, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. The majority of them deliver divergent results. Decision makers face the difficult task of selecting the most suitable model. This study is performed to overcome this difficulty. By doing so, it fills a research gap. First, a two-step web-based survey is conducted. It aims (1) to identify the selection criteria, (2) to prioritize and weight the selection criteria with respect to the goal of selecting the most suitable model and (3) to collect the preferences about which model is preferable to fulfil each selection criterion. Second, Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to quantify the preferences expressed in the survey. Results show that the understandability, the applicability and the acceptability of the alternative models are valid selection criteria. The selection of the most suitable model depends on the preferences of the decision makers with regards to these criteria.

Falsification and corroboration of conceptual hydrological models using geophysical data

Geophysical data may provide crucial information about hydrological properties, states, and processes that are difficult to obtain by other means. Large data sets can be acquired over widely different scales in a minimally invasive manner and at comparatively low costs, but their effective use in hydrology makes it necessary to understand the fidelity of geophysical models, the assumptions made in their construction, and the links between geophysical and hydrological properties. Geophysics has been applied for groundwater prospecting for almost a century, but it is only in the last 20 years that it is regularly used together with classical hydrological data to build predictive hydrological models. A largely unexplored venue for future work is to use geophysical data to falsify or rank competing conceptual hydrological models. A promising cornerstone for such a model selection strategy is the Bayes factor, but it can only be calculated reliably when considering the main sources of uncertainty throughout the hydrogeophysical parameter estimation process. Most classical geophysical imaging tools tend to favor models with smoothly varying property fields that are at odds with most conceptual hydrological models of interest. It is thus necessary to account for this bias or use alternative approaches in which proposed conceptual models are honored at all steps in the model building process.

Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

The conditions for the reproduction of the SAGUAPAC water cooperative in the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia : discourse analysis

The SAGUAPAC cooperative in the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Eastern Bolivia) is regularly presented as an example of cooperative successes regarding water supply and sanitation. Its efficiency, both economic and technical, is widely considered as the main reason for its attractiveness. However, without denying its importance, we show, through a discourse analysis from and about SAGUAPAC in local media, that moral and non-instrumental factors are crucial in the reproduction of the cooperative. These factors create attachment and affection toward the cooperative, through a storytelling using a four-dimensional rhetoric (mythification, identification, emotionalisation and personification). This storytelling technique, internalized in the local media discourse and materializing the so-called new spirit of capitalism, exploits the affects and instrumentalisation of local myths and legends, as well as the 'camba' ethnic identity. In that, it tends to retain SAGUAPAC members and to canvass new ones, by providing them with recognition in their quality of local community members. However, the mobilisation of social norms and power hierarchies might end up reinforcing the social exclusion of Andean non-camba immigrants, inspite of an a priori inclusive and democratic organisation.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-