Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

High prevalence and lineage diversity of avian malaria in wild populations of great tits (Parus major) and mosquitoes (Culex pipiens).

Avian malaria studies have taken a prominent place in different aspects of evolutionary ecology. Despite a recent interest in the role of vectors within the complex interaction system of the malaria parasite, they have largely been ignored in most epidemiological studies. Epidemiology of the disease is however strongly related to the vector's ecology and behaviour, and there is a need for basic investigations to obtain a better picture of the natural associations between Plasmodium lineages, vector species and bird hosts. The aim of the present study was to identify the mosquito species involved in the transmission of the haemosporidian parasites Plasmodium spp. in two wild populations of breeding great tits (Parus major) in western Switzerland. Additionally, we compared Plasmodium lineages, based on mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences, between the vertebrate and dipteran hosts, and evaluated the prevalence of the parasite in the mosquito populations. Plasmodium spp. were detected in Culex pipiens only, with an overall 6.6% prevalence. Among the six cytochrome b lineages of Plasmodium identified in the mosquitoes, three were also present in great tits. The results provide evidence for the first time that C. pipiens can act as a natural vector of avian malaria in Europe and yield baseline data for future research on the epidemiology of avian malaria in European countries.

Experimentally increased group diversity improves disease resistance in an ant species.

A leading hypothesis linking parasites to social evolution is that more genetically diverse social groups better resist parasites. Moreover, group diversity can encompass factors other than genetic variation that may also influence disease resistance. Here, we tested whether group diversity improved disease resistance in an ant species with natural variation in colony queen number. We formed experimental groups of workers and challenged them with the fungal parasite Metarhizium anisopliae. Workers originating from monogynous colonies (headed by a single queen and with low genetic diversity) had higher survival than workers originating from polygynous ones, both in uninfected groups and in groups challenged with M. anisopliae. However, an experimental increase of group diversity by mixing workers originating from monogynous colonies strongly increased the survival of workers challenged with M. anisopliae, whereas it tended to decrease their survival in absence of infection. This experiment suggests that group diversity, be it genetic or environmental, improves the mean resistance of group members to the fungal infection, probably through the sharing of physiological or behavioural defences.

Atomic diversity, molecular diversity, and chemical diversity: the concept of chemodiversity.

This minireview is meant as an introduction to the following paper. To this end, it presents the general background against which the joint paper should be understood. The first objective of the present paper is thus to clarify some concepts and related terminology, drawing a clear distinction between i) atomic diversity (i.e., atomic-property space), ii) molecular or macromolecular diversity (i.e., molecular- or macromolecular-property spaces), and iii) chemical diversity (i.e., chemical-diversity space). The first refers to the various electronic states an atom can occupy. The second encompasses the conformational and property spaces of a given (macro)molecule. The third pertains to the diversity in structure and properties exhibited by a library or a supramolecular assembly of different chemical compounds. The ground is thus laid for the content of the joint paper, which pertains to case ii, to be placed in its broader chemodiversity context. The second objective of this paper is to point to the concepts of chemodiversity and biodiversity as forming a continuum. Chemodiversity is indeed the material substratum of organisms. In other words, chemodiversity is the material condition for life to emerge and exist. Increasing our knowledge of chemodiversity is thus a condition for a better understanding of life as a process.

The influence of environmental spatial structure on the life history traits and diversity of species in a metacommunity

Several models have been proposed to understand how so many species can coexist in ecosystems. Despite evidence showing that natural habitats are often patchy and fragmented, these models rarely take into account environmental spatial structure. In this study we investigated the influence of spatial structure in habitat and disturbance regime upon species' traits and species' coexistence in a metacommunity. We used a population-based model to simulate competing species in spatially explicit landscapes. The species traits we focused on were dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate. Communities were characterized by their species richness and by the four life-history traits averaged over all the surviving species. Our results show that spatial structure and disturbance have a strong influence on the equilibrium life-history traits within a metacommunity. In the absence of disturbance, spatially structured landscapes favour species investing more in reproduction, but less in dispersal and survival. However, this influence is strongly dependent on the disturbance rate, pointing to an important interaction between spatial structure and disturbance. This interaction also plays a role in species coexistence. While spatial structure tends to reduce diversity in the absence of disturbance, the tendency is reversed when disturbance occurs. In conclusion, the spatial structure of communities is an important determinant of their diversity and characteristic traits. These traits are likely to influence important ecological properties such as resistance to invasion or response to climate change, which in turn will determine the fate of ecosystems facing the current global ecological crisis.

Determinants of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus native bone and joint infection treatment failure: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) native bone and joint infection (BJI) constitutes the more frequent clinical entity of BJI, prognostic studies mostly focused on methicillin-resistant S. aureus prosthetic joint infection. We aimed to assess the determinants of native MSSA BJI outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study (2001-2011) of patients admitted in a reference hospital centre for native MSSA BJI. Treatment failure determinants were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients (42 males [63.6%]; median age 61.2 years; interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-71.9) presented an acute (n = 38; 57.6%) or chronic (n = 28; 42.4%) native MSSA arthritis (n = 15; 22.7%), osteomyelitis (n = 19; 28.8%) or spondylodiscitis (n = 32; 48.5%), considered as "difficult-to-treat" in 61 cases (92.4%). All received a prolonged (27.1 weeks; IQR, 16.9-36.1) combined antimicrobial therapy, after surgical management in 37 cases (56.1%). Sixteen treatment failures (24.2%) were observed during a median follow-up period of 63.3 weeks (IQR, 44.7-103.1), including 13 persisting infections, 1 relapse after treatment disruption, and 2 super-infections. Independent determinants of treatment failure were the existence of a sinus tract (odds ratio [OR], 5.300; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.166-24.103) and a prolonged delay to infectious disease specialist referral (OR, 1.134; 95% CI 1.013-1.271). CONCLUSIONS: The important treatment failure rate pinpointed the difficulty of cure encountered in complicated native MSSA BJI. An early infectious disease specialist referral is essential, especially in debilitated patients or in presence of sinus tract.

Molecular phylogeography of the nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes, Linnaeus (1758)): evidence for high genetic diversity and multiple refugia in the Balkan peninsula

The nose-horned viper (Vipera ammodytes) occurs in a large part of the south-eastern Europe and Asia Minor. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed for a total of 59 specimens using sequences from three mitochondrial regions (16S and cytochrome b genes, and control region, totalling 2308 bp). A considerable number of clades were observed within this species, showing a large genetic diversity within the Balkan peninsula. Splitting of the basal clades was evaluated to about 4 million years ago. Genetic results are in contradiction with presently accepted taxonomy based on morphological characters: V. a. gregorwallneri and V. a. ruffoi do not display any genetic difference compared with the nominotypic subspecies (V. a. ammodytes), involving that these subspecies can be regarded as synonyms. High genetic divergence in the central part of the Balkan peninsula is not concordant with low morphological differentiation. Finally, the extensive genetic diversity within the Balkan peninsula and the colonisation routes are discussed

Diversity and structure of AMF communities as affected by tillage in a temperate soil.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) were studied in differently tilled soils from a long-term field experiment in Switzerland. Diversity and structure of AMF communities were surveyed either directly on spores isolated from the field soil or on spores isolated from trap cultures, planted with different host plants. Single-spore cultures were established from the AMF spores obtained from trap cultures. Identification of the AMF was made by observation of spore morphology and confirmed by sequencing of ITS rDNA. At least 17 recognised AMF species were identified in samples from field and/or trap cultures, belonging to five genera of AMF--Glomus, Gigaspora, Scutellospora, Acaulospora, and Entrophospora. Tillage had a significant influence on the sporulation of some species and non- Glomus AMF tended to be more abundant in the no-tilled soil. The community structure of AMF in the field soil was significantly affected by tillage treatment. However, no significant differences in AMF diversity were detected among different soil tillage treatments. AMF community composition in trap cultures was affected much more by the species of the trap plant than by the original tillage treatment of the field soil. The use of trap cultures for fungal diversity estimation in comparison with direct observation of field samples is discussed.

Quaternary coral reef refugia preserved fish diversity.

The most prominent pattern in global marine biogeography is the biodiversity peak in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Yet the processes that underpin this pattern are still actively debated. By reconstructing global marine paleoenvironments over the past 3 million years on the basis of sediment cores, we assessed the extent to which Quaternary climate fluctuations can explain global variation in current reef fish richness. Comparing global historical coral reef habitat availability with the present-day distribution of 6316 reef fish species, we find that distance from stable coral reef habitats during historical periods of habitat loss explains 62% of the variation in fish richness, outweighing present-day environmental factors. Our results highlight the importance of habitat persistence during periods of climate change for preserving marine biodiversity.

Good genes and good luck: Ammonoid diversity and the end-Permian mass extinction

The end-Permian mass extinction removed more than 80% of marine genera. Ammonoid cephalopods were among the organisms most affected by this crisis. The analysis of a global diversity data set of ammonoid genera covering about 106 million years centered on the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) shows that Triassic ammonoids actually reached levels of diversity higher than in the Permian less than 2 million years after the PTB. The data favor a hierarchical rather than logistic model of diversification coupled with a niche incumbency hypothesis. This explosive and nondelayed diversification contrasts with the slow and delayed character of the Triassic biotic recovery as currently illustrated for other, mainly benthic groups such as bivalves and gastropods.

The α1-adrenergic receptors: diversity of signaling networks and regulation.

The α(1)-adrenergic receptor (AR) subtypes (α(1a), α(1b), and α(1d)) mediate several physiological effects of epinephrine and norepinephrine. Despite several studies in recombinant systems and insight from genetically modified mice, our understanding of the physiological relevance and specificity of the α(1)-AR subtypes is still limited. Constitutive activity and receptor oligomerization have emerged as potential features regulating receptor function. Another recent paradigm is that β arrestins and G protein-coupled receptors themselves can act as scaffolds binding a variety of proteins and this can result in growing complexity of the receptor-mediated cellular effects. The aim of this review is to summarize our current knowledge on some recently identified functional paradigms and signaling networks that might help to elucidate the functional diversity of the α(1)-AR subtypes in various organs.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.