Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Begging food provisioning and nestling competition in great tit broods infested with ectoparasites

Ectoparasites are a ubiquitous environmental component of breeding birds, and it has repeatedly been shown that hematophagous ectoparasites such as fleas and mites reduce the quality and number of offspring of bird hosts, thereby lowering the value of a current brood. Selection acting on the hosts will favor physiological and behavioral responses that will reduce the parasites' impact. However, the results of the few bird studies that addressed the question of whether parasitism leads to a higher rate of food provisioning are equivocal, and the begging response to infestation has rarely been quantified. A change in begging activity and parental rate of food provisioning could be predicted in either direction: parents could reduce their investment in the brood in order to invest more in future broods, or they could increase their investment in order to compensate for the parasites' effect on the current brood. Since the nestlings are weakened by the ectoparasites they may beg less, but on the other hand they may beg more in order to obtain more food. In this study we show experimentally that (1) hen fleas (Ceratophyllus gallinae) reduce the body mass and size of great tit (Parus major) nestlings, (2) nestlings of parasitized broods more than double their begging rate, (3) the male parents increase the frequency of feeding trips by over 50%, (4) the females do not adjust feeding rate to the lowered nutritional state of nestlings, and (5) food competition among siblings of parasitized broods is increased. Ultimately the difference in the parental feeding response may be understood as the result of a sex-related difference in the trade-off of investing in current versus future broods.

Contracts, Reference Points, and Competition - Behavioral Effects of the Fundamental Transformation

In this paper we study the role of incomplete ex ante contracts for ex post trade. Previous experimental evidence indicates that a contract provides a reference point for entitlements when the terms are negotiated in a competitive market. We show that this finding no longer holds when the terms are determined in a non-competitive way. Our results imply that the presence of a "fundamental transformation" (i.e., the transition from a competitive market to a bilateral relationship) is important for a contract to become a reference point. To the best of our knowledge this behavioral aspect of the fundamental transformation has not been shown before.

Corticosterone promotes scramble competition over sibling negotiation in Barn Owl nestlings (Tyto alba)

In species with parental care, siblings compete for access to food resources. Typically, they vocally signal their level of need to each other and to parents, and jostle for the position in the nest where parents deliver food. Although food shortage and social interactions are stressful, little is known about the effect of stress on the way siblings resolve the conflict over how food is shared among them. Because glucocorticoid hormones mediate physiological and behavioral responses to stressors, we tested whether corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, modulates physical and vocal signaling used by barn owl siblings (Tyto alba) to compete for food. Although corticosterone-implanted (cort-) nestlings and placebo-nestlings were similarly successful to monopolize food, they employed different behavioral strategies. Compared to placebo-nestlings, cort-individuals reduced the rate of vocally communicating with their siblings (but not with their parents) but were positioned closer to the nest-box entrance where parents predictably deliver food. Therefore, corticosterone induced nestlings to increase their effort in physical competition for the best nest position at the expense of investment in sib-sib communication without modifying vocal begging signals directed to parents. This suggests that in the barn owl stress alters nestlings' behavior and corticosterone could mediate the trade-off between scramble competition and vocal sib-sib communication. We conclude that stressful environments may prevent the evolution of sib-sib communication as a way to resolve family conflicts peacefully.

Sex-chromosome differentiation parallels postglacial range expansion in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea).

Occasional XY recombination is a proposed explanation for the sex-chromosome homomorphy in European tree frogs. Numerous laboratory crosses, however, failed to detect any event of male recombination, and a detailed survey of NW-European Hyla arborea populations identified male-specific alleles at sex-linked loci, pointing to the absence of XY recombination in their recent history. Here, we address this paradox in a phylogeographic framework by genotyping sex-linked microsatellite markers in populations and sibships from the entire species range. Contrasting with postglacial populations of NW Europe, which display complete absence of XY recombination and strong sex-chromosome differentiation, refugial populations of the southern Balkans and Adriatic coast show limited XY recombination and large overlaps in allele frequencies. Geographically and historically intermediate populations of the Pannonian Basin show intermediate patterns of XY differentiation. Even in populations where X and Y occasionally recombine, the genetic diversity of Y haplotypes is reduced below the levels expected from the fourfold drop in copy numbers. This study is the first in which X and Y haplotypes could be phased over the distribution range in a species with homomorphic sex chromosomes; it shows that XY-recombination patterns may differ strikingly between conspecific populations, and that recombination arrest may evolve rapidly (<5000 generations).

Do we fear tax competition among new and old European countries ?

The purpose of this paper is to study both theoretically and empirically tax competition in the enlarged EU and to provide some insights on ongoing reforms concerning business taxation. We support the idea that even if one can observe cuts in "new" members statutory business tax rates, this should not result in fiercer tax competition between the "core" and "the "periphery" since infrastructure endowments and the existence of agglomeration rents in the core of the EU may prevent (at least partially) activities to relocate to the "new" members.

Ecologie trophique de deux espèces jumelles et sympatriques de chauves-souris: Myotis myotis et Myotis blythii (Chiroptera : Vespertilionidae). Premiers résultats

M. myotis and M. blythii are two sibling species of bats that live sympatrically over wide areas of the Western Palearctic region, and which often coexist intimately in their nursery roosts. According to the principle of <<limiting similarity>> this cohabitation should imply an interspecific ecological differentiation. The hypothesis of a niche separation at the trophic level is tested here. The fecal analysis of 300 droppings collected from a zone of sympatry shows a clear interspecific differentiation in diets : M. myotis eats mostly Carabidae (Coleoptera), whereas M. blythii captures essentially Tettigoniidae, Gryllidae and Acrididae (Orthoptera). Because they consume exclusively terrestrial arthropods, M. myotis and M. blythii are typical ground and/or grass gleaning bats. However, despite their narrow niches they are probably not specialized in the predation of only some definite categories of prey. The narrow diets probably reflect the high specialization of their modes of resource exploitation: M. myotis and M. blythii prey upon ground arthropods and they are likely to select for different foraging;g habitats. M. myotis probably prefers wooded feeding grounds (Carabidae) whereas M. blythii exploits herbaceous habitats (Orthoptera). The strong trophic segregation observed in sympatry between M. myotis and M. blythii shows that the interspecific competition is distinctly much weaker than the intraspecific one. This would explain the stable, intimate co-existence of these two virtual competitors.

Spatial pattern and process at the plant neighbourhood scale: insights from communities dominated by the clonal grass Elymus repens (L.) Gould.

Question: How do clonal traits of a locally dominant grass (Elymus repens (L.) Gould.) respond to soil heterogeneity and shape spatial patterns of its tillers? How do tiller spatial patterns constrain seedling recruitment within the community?Locations: Artificial banks of the River Rhone, France.Material and Methods: We examined 45 vegetation patches dominated by Elymus repens. During a first phase we tested relationships between soil variables and three clonal traits (spacer length, number of clumping tillers and branching rate), and between the same clonal traits and spatial patterns (i.e. density and degree of spatial aggregation) of tillers at a very fine scale. During a second phase, we performed a sowing experiment to investigate effects of density and spatial patterns of E. repens on recruitment of eight species selected from the regional species pool.Results: Clonal traits had clear effects - especially spacer length - on densification and aggregation of E. repens tillers and, at the same time, a clear response of these same clonal traits as soil granulometry changed. The density and degree of aggregation of E. repens tillers was positively correlated to total seedling cover and diversity at the finest spatial scales.Conclusions: Spatial patterning of a dominant perennial grass responds to soil heterogeneity through modifications of its clonal morphology as a trade-off between phalanx and guerrilla forms. In turn, spatial patterns have strong effects on abundance and diversity of seedlings. Spatial patterns of tillers most probably led to formation of endogenous gaps in which the recruitment of new plant individuals was enhanced. Interestingly, we also observed more idiosyncratic effects of tiller spatial patterns on seedling cover and diversity when focusing on different growth forms of the sown species.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor mediates cross-talk with thyroid hormone receptor by competition for retinoid X receptor. Possible role of a leucine zipper-like heptad repeat.

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) and thyroid hormone receptors (TR) are members of the nuclear receptor superfamily, which regulate lipid metabolism and tissue differentiation. In order to bind to DNA and activate transcription, PPAR requires the formation of heterodimers with the retinoid X receptor (RXR). In addition to activating transcription through its own response elements, PPAR is able to selectively down-regulate the transcriptional activity of TR, but not vitamin D receptor. The molecular basis of this functional interaction has not been fully elucidated. By means of site-directed mutagenesis of hPPAR alpha we mapped its inhibitory action on TR to a leucine zipper-like motif in the ligand binding domain of PPAR, which is highly conserved among all subtypes of this receptor and mediates heterodimerization with RXR. Replacement of a single leucine by arginine at position 433 of hPPAR alpha (L433R) abolished heterodimerization of PPAR with RXR and consequently its trans-activating capacity. However, a similar mutation of a leucine residue to arginine at position 422 showed no alteration of heterodimerization, DNA binding, or transcriptional activation. The dimerization deficient mutant L433R was no longer able to inhibit TR action, demonstrating that the selective inhibitory effect of PPAR results from the competition for RXR as well as possibly for other TR-auxiliary proteins. In contrast, abolition of DNA binding by a mutation in the P-box of PPAR (C122S) did not eliminate the inhibition of TR trans-activation, indicating that competition for DNA binding is not involved. Additionally, no evidence for the formation of PPAR:TR heterodimers was found in co-immunoprecipitation experiments. In summary, we have demonstrated that PPAR selectively inhibits the transcriptional activity of TRs by competition for RXR and possibly non-RXR TR-auxiliary proteins. In contrast, this functional interaction is independent of the formation of PPAR:TR heterodimers or competition for DNA binding.

Ecological niche overlap in sister species: how do oil-collecting bees Macropis europaea and M. fulvipes (Hymenoptera: Melittidae) avoid competition and hybridization?

Oil-collecting bees are found worldwide and always in association with particular oil-producing flowers. In the Western Palearctic, three oil-collecting bee species within the genus Macropis (Hymenoptera, Melittidae) interact in a tight pollination mutualism with species of the only European oil-producing plant genus Lysimachia L. (Myrsinaceae). Two of these oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and Macropis fulvipes) show overlapping geographic distributions, comparable morphologies, and similar ecological characteristics (e.g., habitat type, floral preferences). In view of these similarities, we presume that hybridization should occur between the two species unless potential variation among the species' ecological niches prevents it, simultaneously decreasing competition for resources. Using modern genetic analyses and ecological niche modeling on a large bee sampling throughout Europe, we discuss new perspectives on the ecology and evolutionary history of this mutualism.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.