Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Should we await IFN-free regimens to treat HCV genotype 1 treatment-naive patients? A cost-effectiveness analysis (ANRS 95141).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In treatment-naive patients mono-infected with genotype 1 chronic HCV, treatments with telaprevir/boceprevir (TVR/BOC)-based triple therapy are standard-of-care. However, more efficacious direct-acting antivirals (IFN-based new DAAs) are available and interferon-free (IFN-free) regimens are imminent (2015). METHODS: A mathematical model estimated quality-adjusted life years, cost and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of (i) IFN-based new DAAs vs. TVR/BOC-based triple therapy; and (ii) IFN-based new DAAs initiation strategies, given that IFN-free regimens are imminent. The sustained virological response in F3-4/F0-2 was 71/89% with IFN-based new DAAs, 85/95% with IFN-free regimens, vs. 64/80% with TVR/BOC-based triple therapy. Serious adverse events leading to discontinuation were taken as: 0-0.6% with IFN-based new DAAs, 0% with IFN-free regimens, vs. 1-10% with TVR/BOC-based triple therapy. Costs were euro60,000 for 12weeks of IFN-based new DAAs and two times higher for IFN-free regimens. RESULTS: Treatment with IFN-based new DAAs when fibrosis stage ⩾F2 is cost-effective compared to TVR/BOC-based triple therapy (euro37,900/QALY gained), but not at F0-1 (euro103,500/QALY gained). Awaiting the IFN-free regimens is more effective, except in F4 patients, but not cost-effective compared to IFN-based new DAAs. If we decrease the cost of IFN-free regimens close to that of IFN-based new DAAs, then awaiting the IFN-free regimen becomes cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with IFN-based new DAAs at stage ⩾F2 is both effective and cost-effective compared to TVR/BOC triple therapy. Awaiting IFN-free regimens and then treating regardless of fibrosis is more efficacious, except in F4 patients; however, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy is highly dependent on its cost.

Cost-effectiveness of low-molecular-weight heparin for treatment of pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: Low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) appears to be safe and effective for treating pulmonary embolism (PE), but its cost-effectiveness has not been assessed. METHODS: We built a Markov state-transition model to evaluate the medical and economic outcomes of a 6-day course with fixed-dose LMWH or adjusted-dose unfractionated heparin (UFH) in a hypothetical cohort of 60-year-old patients with acute submassive PE. Probabilities for clinical outcomes were obtained from a meta-analysis of clinical trials. Cost estimates were derived from Medicare reimbursement data and other sources. The base-case analysis used an inpatient setting, whereas secondary analyses examined early discharge and outpatient treatment with LMWH. Using a societal perspective, strategies were compared based on lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Inpatient treatment costs were higher for LMWH treatment than for UFH (dollar 13,001 vs dollar 12,780), but LMWH yielded a greater number of QALYs than did UFH (7.677 QALYs vs 7.493 QALYs). The incremental costs of dollar 221 and the corresponding incremental effectiveness of 0.184 QALYs resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of dollar 1,209/QALY. Our results were highly robust in sensitivity analyses. LMWH became cost-saving if the daily pharmacy costs for LMWH were < dollar 51, if > or = 8% of patients were eligible for early discharge, or if > or = 5% of patients could be treated entirely as outpatients. CONCLUSION: For inpatient treatment of PE, the use of LMWH is cost-effective compared to UFH. Early discharge or outpatient treatment in suitable patients with PE would lead to substantial cost savings.

How quickly should we titrate antihypertensive medication? Systematic review modelling blood pressure response from trial data.

Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.

Energetic and metabolic cost of growth in Gambian infants.

The aim of the study was to measure the energy used for growth of healthy fullterm and breast-fed Gambian infants. The weight gain (WG) of 14 infants (mean age +/- SEM 17 +/- 1 d, weight 3.581 +/- 0.105 kg) was measured over a 2-week period; the energy intake (EI) from breast milk was assessed for 24 h in the middle of the study period by weighing the infant before and after each breast-feed. On the same day, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) were measured for 30 min on five occasions through the 24-h period. EI averaged 502 +/- 25 kJ/kg.d, and SEE 230 +/- 6 kJ/kg.d; thus, an average of 272 kJ/kg.d were available for physical activity and the energy stored for growth. The total energy spent by infants while sleeping and for periods of physical activity was calculated to be 1.7 x SEE. The mean RQ measured on five occasions averaged 0.879 +/- 0.009. SEE was correlated with WG (r = 0.747, P less than 0.005), with a slope of the regression line of 5.5 kJ/g; this value can be considered as an estimate of the energy spent for new tissue synthesis in the resting infant. The efficiency of weight gain was lower in this study (67%) than in studies conducted on fast-growing preterm infants or children recovering from malnutrition.

The cost of inappropriateness of coagulation testing [I costi dell'inappropriatezza in coagulazione]

Background. Laboratory utilization has steadily increased with a corresponding increase in overall costs; several authors have attempted to measure the impact of inappropriateness on clinical outcomes but data are insufficient. The aim of the study is to assess the cost of inappropriateness of test-ordering behaviour for second-level coagulation tests (hemorrhagic diathesisand thrombophilia). Methods. We reviewed all second-level coagulation testrequests received by our department during a six months period. Clinicians must fill out a specific order form for these kind of tests, containing all informations deemed necessary for the laboratory specialist to evaluatethe appropriateness of the request. We identified all inappropriate requests and counted the numbers and types of all coagulation tests that were not performed during the period. An analysis of the laboratory activity costs was done in order to calculate the global costof each test in our department and to estimate the savings achieved. Results. On a total of 1664 second-level coagulationtest requests, we estimated 150 as completely inappropriate. We found an overall of 295 inappropriate testswhich were not performed. This resulted in an economic saving of 20.000 euro in 6 months. Conclusions. The analysis of cost of our intervention shows the urgent need for a definite and sustained reduction in inappropriate requests of second-level coagulation tests. Even though we estimated only the economic aspect of inappropriate testing, this is also associated with the overuse of diagnostic tests which entailsthe risk of generating erroneous results with potentialnegative consequences on patients' health.

Cost-effective utilization of a private facility to perform outpatient surgery in public hospital waiting list patients.

Background: Public hospitals' long waiting lists make outpatient surgery in private facilities very attractive provided a standardized protocol is applied. The aim of this study was to assess this kind of innovative collaboration in abdominal surgery from a clinical and economical perspective. Methods: All consecutive patients operated on in an outpatient basis in a private facility by a public hospital abdominal surgeon and an assistant over a 5-year period (2004-2009) were included. Clinical assessment was carried out from patients' charts and satisfaction questionnaire, and economic assessment from the comparison between the surgeons' charges paid by the private facility and the surgeons' hospital salaries during the days devoted to surgery at the private facility. Results: Over the 5 years, 602 operative procedures were carried out during 190 operative days. All patients could be discharged the same day and only 1% of minor complications occurred. The patients' satisfaction was 98%. The balance between the surgeons' charges paid by the private facility and their hospital salary costs was positive by 25.8% for the senior surgeon and 12.6% for the assistant or, on average, 21.9% for both. Conclusion: Collaboration between an overloaded university hospital surgery department and a private surgical facility was successful, effective, safe, and cost-effective. It could be extended to other surgical specialities. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

Spare non-occupational HIV post-exposure prophylaxis by active contacting and testing of the source person.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-1 post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is frequently prescribed after exposure to source persons with an undetermined HIV serostatus. To reduce unnecessary use of PEP, we implemented a policy including active contacting of source persons and the availability of free, anonymous HIV testing ('PEP policy'). METHODS: All consultations for potential non-occupational HIV exposures i.e. outside the medical environment) were prospectively recorded. The impact of the PEP policy on PEP prescription and costs was analysed and modelled. RESULTS: Among 146 putative exposures, 47 involved a source person already known to be HIV positive and 23 had no indication for PEP. The remaining 76 exposures involved a source person of unknown HIV serostatus. Of 33 (43.4%) exposures for which the source person could be contacted and tested, PEP was avoided in 24 (72.7%), initiated and discontinued in seven (21.2%), and prescribed and completed in two (6.1%). In contrast, of 43 (56.6%) exposures for which the source person could not be tested, PEP was prescribed in 35 (81.4%), P &lt; 0.001. Upon modelling, the PEP policy allowed a 31% reduction of cost for management of exposures to source persons of unknown HIV serostatus. The policy was cost-saving for HIV prevalence of up to 70% in the source population. The availability of all the source persons for testing would have reduced cost by 64%. CONCLUSION: In the management of non-occupational HIV exposures, active contacting and free, anonymous testing of source persons proved feasible. This policy resulted in a decrease in prescription of PEP, proved to be cost-saving, and presumably helped to avoid unnecessary toxicity and psychological stress.

Constraint and cost of oxidative stress on reproduction: correlative evidence in laboratory mice and review of the literature.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: One central concept in evolutionary ecology is that current and residual reproductive values are negatively linked by the so-called cost of reproduction. Previous studies examining the nature of this cost suggested a possible involvement of oxidative stress resulting from the imbalance between pro- and anti-oxidant processes. Still, data remain conflictory probably because, although oxidative damage increases during reproduction, high systemic levels of oxidative stress might also constrain parental investment in reproduction. Here, we investigated variation in oxidative balance (i.e. oxidative damage and antioxidant defences) over the course of reproduction by comparing female laboratory mice rearing or not pups. RESULTS: A significant increase in oxidative damage over time was only observed in females caring for offspring, whereas antioxidant defences increased over time regardless of reproductive status. Interestingly, oxidative damage measured prior to reproduction was negatively associated with litter size at birth (constraint), whereas damage measured after reproduction was positively related to litter size at weaning (cost). CONCLUSIONS: Globally, our correlative results and the review of literature describing the links between reproduction and oxidative stress underline the importance of timing/dynamics when studying and interpreting oxidative balance in relation to reproduction. Our study highlights the duality (constraint and cost) of oxidative stress in life-history trade-offs, thus supporting the theory that oxidative stress plays a key role in life-history evolution.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". METHODS: Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25-64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as USD per capita per year. RESULTS: 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%). Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (> or =140/90 mmHg or treatment) of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (> or =6.2 mmol/l); 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (<1.0 mmol/l); 9.3% for diabetes (fasting glucose > or =7.0 mmol/l); 17.5% for smoking; 25.1% for obesity (body mass index > or =30 kg/m2) and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to USD 45.6, i.e. 11.2 dollars for high blood pressure, 3.8 dollars for diabetes, and 30.6 dollars for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia). Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to 22.6 dollars. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

Rate, type, and cost of adverse drug reactions in emergency department admissions.

Background: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a threat to patients' health and quality of life, and can generate significant expenses. They are generally underreported, with different rates in different health care systems. Methods: We conducted a 6-month survey of all primary admissions to the medical emergency department of a university hospital and assessed the rate, characteristics, avoidability, and marginal costs of ADRs. Results: A total of 7% of all admissions were mainly caused by ADRs. The most frequent were gastrointestinal bleeding (22.3%) and febrile neutropenia (14.4%). Anticancer drugs were involved in 22.7% of the cases, and anticoagulants, analgesics, and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in 8% each. Physicians had prescribed 70% of these drugs. Patients were predominantly treated in intermediate care units and ordinary wards. The mean cost per case amounted to CHF 3586+/-342, or a total of CHF 821204 over the 6-month-period (1 CHF=0.56 US$=0.87 Euro). A total of 67% were considered definitely imputable to drug effects and 32% were retrospectively regarded as avoidable. Conclusions: Interventions aimed at reducing the incidence of ADRs should be directed towards both patient education and physician training. This could save hospitals admissions and money, and could be used as an indicator of prescription quality.