Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Manipulating the sensitivity of signal-induced repression: quantification and consequences of altered brinker gradients.

Traditionally, the analysis of gene regulatory regions suffered from the caveat that it was restricted to artificial contexts (e.g. reporter constructs of limited size). With the advent of the BAC recombineering technique, genomic constructs can now be generated to test regulatory elements in their endogenous environment. The expression of the transcriptional repressor brinker (brk) is negatively regulated by Dpp signaling. Repression is mediated by small sequence motifs, the silencer elements (SEs), that are present in multiple copies in the regulatory region of brk. In this work, we manipulated the SEs in the brk locus. We precisely quantified the effects of the individual SEs on the Brk gradient in the wing disc by employing a 1D data extraction method, followed by the quantification of the data with reference to an internal control. We found that mutating the SEs results in an expansion of the brk expression domain. However, even after mutating all predicted SEs, repression could still be observed in regions of maximal Dpp levels. Thus, our data point to the presence of additional, low affinity binding sites in the brk locus.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Novel acid phosphatase in Candida glabrata suggests selective pressure and niche specialization in the phosphate signal transduction pathway.

Evolution through natural selection suggests unnecessary genes are lost. We observed that the yeast Candida glabrata lost the gene encoding a phosphate-repressible acid phosphatase (PHO5) present in many yeasts including Saccharomyces cerevisiae. However, C. glabrata still had phosphate starvation-inducible phosphatase activity. Screening a C. glabrata genomic library, we identified CgPMU2, a member of a three-gene family that contains a phosphomutase-like domain. This small-scale gene duplication event could allow for sub- or neofunctionalization. On the basis of phylogenetic and biochemical characterizations, CgPMU2 has neofunctionalized to become a broad range, phosphate starvation-regulated acid phosphatase, which functionally replaces PHO5 in this pathogenic yeast. We determined that CgPmu2, unlike ScPho5, is not able to hydrolyze phytic acid (inositol hexakisphosphate). Phytic acid is present in fruits and seeds where S. cerevisiae grows, but is not abundant in mammalian tissues where C. glabrata grows. We demonstrated that C. glabrata is limited from an environment where phytic acid is the only source of phosphate. Our work suggests that during evolutionary time, the selection for the ancestral PHO5 was lost and that C. glabrata neofunctionalized a weak phosphatase to replace PHO5. Convergent evolution of a phosphate starvation-inducible acid phosphatase in C. glabrata relative to most yeast species provides an example of how small changes in signal transduction pathways can mediate genetic isolation and uncovers a potential speciation gene.

Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?

Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Climate and vegetation history of western Portugal inferred from Albian near-shore deposits (Gale Formation, Lusitanian Basin)

The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.

Functional homogenization of bumblebee communities in alpine landscapes under projected climate change

Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

Plastic modifications within inhibitory control networks induced by practicing a stop-signal task: an electrical neuroimaging study.

INTRODUCTION: Inhibitory control refers to our ability to suppress ongoing motor, affective or cognitive processes and mostly depends on a fronto-basal brain network. Inhibitory control deficits participate in the emergence of several prominent psychiatric conditions, including attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder or addiction. The rehabilitation of these pathologies might therefore benefit from training-based behavioral interventions aiming at improving inhibitory control proficiency and normalizing the underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. The development of an efficient inhibitory control training regimen first requires determining the effects of practicing inhibition tasks. METHODS: We addressed this question by contrasting behavioral performance and electrical neuroimaging analyses of event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded from humans at the beginning versus the end of 1 h of practice on a stop-signal task (SST) involving the withholding of responses when a stop signal was presented during a speeded auditory discrimination task. RESULTS: Practicing a short SST improved behavioral performance. Electrophysiologically, ERPs differed topographically at 200 msec post-stimulus onset, indicative of the engagement of distinct brain network with learning. Source estimations localized this effect within the inferior frontal gyrus, the pre-supplementary motor area and the basal ganglia. CONCLUSION: Our collective results indicate that behavioral and brain responses during an inhibitory control task are subject to fast plastic changes and provide evidence that high-order fronto-basal executive networks can be modified by practicing a SST.

Membrane mu poly(A) signal and 3' flanking sequences function as a transcription terminator for immunoglobulin-encoding genes.

Developmentally regulated mechanisms involving alternative RNA splicing and/or polyadenylation, as well as transcription termination, are implicated in controlling the levels of secreted mu (mu s), membrane mu (mu m) and delta immunoglobulin (Ig) heavy chain mRNAs during B cell differentiation (mu gene encodes the mu heavy chain). Using expression vectors constructed with genomic DNA segments composed of the mu m polyadenylation signal region, we analyzed poly(A) site utilization and termination of transcription in stably transfected myeloma cells and in murine fibroblast L cells. We found that the gene segment containing the mu m poly(A) signals, along with 536 bp of downstream flanking sequence, acted as a transcription terminator in both myeloma cells and L cell fibroblasts. Neither a 141-bp DNA fragment (which directed efficient polyadenylation at the mu m site), nor the 536-bp flanking nucleotide sequence alone, were sufficient to obtain a similar regulation. This shows that the mu m poly(A) region plays a central role in controlling developmentally regulated transcription termination by blocking downstream delta gene expression. Because this gene segment exhibited the same RNA processing and termination activities in fibroblasts, it appears that these processes are not tissue-specific.

Melanin-based colorations signal strategies to cope with poor and rich environments

One hypothesis for the maintenance of genetic variation states that alternative genotypes are adapted to different environmental conditions (i.e., genotype-by-environment interaction GxE) that vary in space and time. Although GxE has been demonstrated for morphological traits, little evidence has been given whether these GxE are associated with traits used as signal in mate choice. In three wild bird species, we investigated whether the degree of melanin-based coloration, a heritable trait, covaries with nestling growth rate in rich and poor environments. Variation in the degree of reddish-brown phaeomelanism is pronounced in the barn owl (Tyto alba) and tawny owl (Strix aluco), and variation in black eumelanism in the barn owl and Alpine swift (Apus melba). Melanin-based coloration has been shown to be a criterion in mate choice in the barn owl. We cross-fostered hatchlings to test whether nestlings sired by parents displaying melanin-based colorations to different extent exhibit alternative growth trajectories when raised by foster parents in poor (experimentally enlarged broods) and rich (experimentally reduced broods) environments. With respect to phaeomelanism, barn owl and tawny owl offspring sired by redder parents grew more rapidly in body mass only in experimentally reduced broods. With respect to eumelanism, Alpine swift offspring of darker fathers grew their wings more rapidly only in experimentally enlarged broods, a difference that was not detected in reduced broods. These interactions between parental melanism and offspring growth rate indicate that individuals display substantial plasticity in response to the rearing environment which is associated with the degree of melanism: at least with respect to nestling growth, phaeomelanic and eumelanic individuals are best adapted to rich and poor environments, respectively. It now remains to be investigated why eumelanism and phaeomelanism have a different signaling function and what the lifelong consequences of these melanism-dependent allocation strategies are. This is important to fully appraise the role played by environmental heterogeneity in maintaining variation in the degree of melanin-based coloration.