94 resultados para Box-Jenkins Approach
Resumo:
Most cases of emphysema are managed conservatively. However, in severe symptomatic emphysema associated with hyperinflation, lung volume reduction (LVR) may be proposed to improve dyspnea, exercice capacity, pulmonary functions, walk distance and to decrease long-term mortality. LVR may be achieved either surgically (LVRS) or endoscopically (EVLR by valves or coils) according to specific clinical criteria. Currently, the optimal approach is discussed in a multidisciplinary setting. The latter permits a personalized evaluation the patient's clinical status and allows the best possible therapeutic intervention to be proposed to the patient.
Resumo:
Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.
Resumo:
La clinique systémique est trop souvent identifiée à la thérapie de couple ou de famille au détriment de la psychothérapie individuelle. Cet article présente les résultats d'un groupe de travail de thérapeutes systémiciens qui ont longuement réfléchi à cette question. Après une revue bibliographique commentée sur le sujet, il propose un certain nombre de points critiques concernant la clinique de la psychothérapie individuelle d'orientation systémique. Systems therapy is too often identified with couple or family therapy to the detriment of individual psychotherapy. This paper presents the results of a group of systems oriented therapists who have reflected on this question in depth. After a review of literature on the subject, this group advances key points concerning the practice of systems oriented individual psychotherapy.