The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Phylogeography and dispersal in the velvet gecko (Oedura lesueurii), and potential implications for conservation of an endangered snake (Hoplocephalus bungaroides).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To conserve critically endangered predators, we also need to conserve the prey species upon which they depend. Velvet geckos (Oedura lesueurii) are a primary prey for the endangered broad-headed snake (Hoplocephalus bungaroides), which is restricted to sandstone habitats in southeastern Australia. We sequenced the ND2 gene from 179 velvet geckos, to clarify the lizards' phylogeographic history and landscape genetics. We also analysed 260 records from a longterm (3-year) capture-mark-recapture program at three sites, to evaluate dispersal rates of geckos as a function of locality, sex and body size. RESULTS: The genetic analyses revealed three ancient lineages in the north, south and centre of the species' current range. Estimates of gene flow suggest low dispersal rates, constrained by the availability of contiguous rocky habitat. Mark-recapture records confirm that these lizards are highly sedentary, with most animals moving < 30 m from their original capture site even over multi-year periods. CONCLUSION: The low vagility of these lizards suggests that they will be slow to colonise vacant habitat patches; and hence, efforts to restore degraded habitats for broad-headed snakes may need to include translocation of lizards.

How a haemosporidian parasite of bats gets around: the genetic structure of a parasite, vector and host compared.

Parasite population structure is often thought to be largely shaped by that of its host. In the case of a parasite with a complex life cycle, two host species, each with their own patterns of demography and migration, spread the parasite. However, the population structure of the parasite is predicted to resemble only that of the most vagile host species. In this study, we tested this prediction in the context of a vector-transmitted parasite. We sampled the haemosporidian parasite Polychromophilus melanipherus across its European range, together with its bat fly vector Nycteribia schmidlii and its host, the bent-winged bat Miniopterus schreibersii. Based on microsatellite analyses, the wingless vector, and not the bat host, was identified as the least structured population and should therefore be considered the most vagile host. Genetic distance matrices were compared for all three species based on a mitochondrial DNA fragment. Both host and vector populations followed an isolation-by-distance pattern across the Mediterranean, but not the parasite. Mantel tests found no correlation between the parasite and either the host or vector populations. We therefore found no support for our hypothesis; the parasite population structure matched neither vector nor host. Instead, we propose a model where the parasite's gene flow is represented by the added effects of host and vector dispersal patterns.

Differentiation of blue ballpoint pen inks by positive and negative mode LDI-MS

Usually, the differentiation of inks on questioned documents is carried out by optical methods and thin layer chromatography (TLC). Therefore, spectrometric methods were also proposed in forensic literature for the analysis of dyes. Between these techniques, laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS) has demonstrated a great versatility thanks to its sensitivity to blue ballpoint ink dyes and minimal sample destruction. Previous researches concentrated mostly on the LDI-MS positive mode and have shown that this analytical tool offers higher discrimination power than high performance TLC (HPTLC) for the differentiation of blue ballpoint inks. Although LDI-MS negative mode has already been applied in numerous forensic domains like the studies of works of art, automotive paints or rollerball pens, its potential for the discrimination of ballpoint pens was never studied before. The aim of the present paper is therefore to evaluate its potential for the discrimination of blue ballpoint inks. After optimization of the method, ink entries from 33 blue ballpoint pens were analyzed directly on paper in both positive and negative modes by LDI-MS. Several cationic and anionic ink components were identified in inks; therefore, pens were classified and compared according to their formulations. Results show that additional information provided by anionic dyes and pigments significantly increases the discrimination power of positive mode. In fact, it was demonstrated that classifications obtained by the two modes were, to some extent, complementary (i.e., inks with specific cationic dyes not necessarily contained the same anionic components).

Test-retest repeatability of the pupil light response to blue and red light stimuli in normal human eyes using a novel pupillometer.

In this study, we evaluated the repeatability of pupil responses to colored light stimuli in healthy subjects using a prototype chromatic pupillometer. One eye of 10 healthy subjects was tested twice in the same day using monochromatic light exposure at two selected wavelengths (660 and 470 nm, intensity 300 cd/m(2)) presented continuously for 20 s. Pupil responses were recorded in real-time before, during, and after light exposure. Maximal contraction amplitude and sustained contraction amplitude were calculated. In addition, we quantified the summed pupil response during continuous light stimulation as the total area between a reference line representing baseline pupil size and the line representing actual pupil size over 20 s (area under the curve). There was no significant difference in the repeated measure compared to the first test for any of the pupil response parameters. In conclusion, we have developed a novel prototype of color pupillometer which demonstrates good repeatability in evoking and recording the pupillary response to a bright blue and red light stimulus.

Clonal growth and demography of a hemicryptophyte alpine plant: Leontopodium alpinum Cassini

Clonally reproducing hemicryptophytic rosette plants are common in the alpine belt. However, their demography, and indirectly their growth and reproductive strategy in these harsh conditions, was rarely studied. We analysed the morphology, clonal reproduction and demography of one such species, Leontopodium alpinum, in two populations of the Swiss Alps. The species forms small colonies of 1-5 (maximum 30) sterile rosettes with a few flowering stalks. After flowering, the apical meristem dies and one or two new axillary buds grow below the previous rosette in the following year, developing into short rhizomes (<2 cm), which decay after four years. The new stalk produces sterile rosettes before flowering after two to four years, depending on climatic conditions. The apical meristem often dies during the sterile stage, and is replaced by a new axillary bud. Levkovitch matrices on two stages (sterile and flowering rosettes) showed that rosette survival and clonal reproduction maintain long-lived populations (λ = 0.96). Elasticities indicated that a change in the survival of sterile rosettes had the strongest effect on population dynamics, and this stage lasts, on average, 6.8 years at 2480 m. Altogether, L. alpinum is following Tomlinson's architectural model. This growth form appears perfectly adapted to harsh alpine conditions: the clonal ramification ensures longevity to genets and the semelparous behaviour of the rosettes allows an efficient flowering, whatever the climatic conditions. L. alpinum appears to follow a common growth model among rosette possessing hemicryptophytes in the alpine belt.

Evidence-based recommendations for genetic diagnosis of familial Mediterranean fever.

Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is a disease of early onset which can lead to significant morbidity. In 2012, Single Hub and Access point for pediatric Rheumatology in Europe (SHARE) was launched with the aim of optimising and disseminating diagnostic and management regimens for children and young adults with rheumatic diseases. The objective was to establish recommendations for FMF focusing on provision of diagnostic tools for inexperienced clinicians particularly regarding interpretation of MEFV mutations. Evidence-based recommendations were developed using the European League against Rheumatism standard operating procedure. An expert committee of paediatric rheumatologists defined search terms for the systematic literature review. Two independent experts scored articles for validity and level of evidence. Recommendations derived from the literature were evaluated by an online survey and statements with less than 80% agreement were reformulated. Subsequently, all recommendations were discussed at a consensus meeting using the nominal group technique and were accepted if more than 80% agreement was reached. The literature search yielded 3386 articles, of which 25 were considered relevant and scored for validity and level of evidence. In total, 17 articles were scored valid and used to formulate the recommendations. Eight recommendations were accepted with 100% agreement after the consensus meeting. Topics covered were clinical versus genetic diagnosis of FMF, genotype-phenotype correlation, genotype-age at onset correlation, silent carriers and risk of amyloid A (AA) amyloidosis, and role of the specialist in FMF diagnosis. The SHARE initiative provides recommendations for diagnosing FMF aimed at facilitating improved and uniform care throughout Europe.

Mediterranean diet and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis of three italian case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Some components of the Mediterranean diet have favourable effects on endometrial cancer, and the Mediterranean diet as a whole has been shown to have a beneficial role on various neoplasms. METHODS: We analysed this issue pooling data from three case-control studies carried out between 1983 and 2006 in various Italian areas and in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. Cases were 1411 women with incident, histologically confirmed endometrial cancer, and controls were 3668 patients in hospital for acute diseases. We measured the adherence to the Mediterranean diet using a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), based on the nine dietary components characteristics of this diet, that is, high intake of vegetables, fruits/nuts, cereals, legumes, fish; low intake of dairy products and meat; high monounsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio; and moderate alcohol intake. We estimated the odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for increasing levels of the MDS (varying from 0, no adherence, to 9, maximum adherence) using multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: The adjusted OR for a 6-9 components of the MDS (high adherence) compared with 0-3 (low adherence) was 0.43 (95% CI 0.34-0.56). The OR for an increment of one component of MDS diet was 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88). The association was consistent in strata of various covariates, although somewhat stronger in older women, in never oral contraceptive users and in hormone-replacement therapy users. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence for a beneficial role of the Mediterranean diet on endometrial cancer risk, suggesting a favourable effect of a combination of foods rich in antioxidants, fibres, phytochemicals, and unsaturated fatty acids.

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori.

Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tipα) and hitherto unknown functional genes.

The genetic basis of color-related local adaptation in a ring-like colonization around the Mediterranean.

Uncovering the genetic basis of phenotypic variation and the population history under which it established is key to understand the trajectories along which local adaptation evolves. Here, we investigated the genetic basis and evolutionary history of a clinal plumage color polymorphism in European barn owls (Tyto alba). Our results suggest that barn owls colonized the Western Palearctic in a ring-like manner around the Mediterranean and meet in secondary contact in Greece. Rufous coloration appears to be linked to a recently evolved nonsynonymous-derived variant of the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene, which according to quantitative genetic analyses evolved under local adaptation during or following the colonization of Central Europe. Admixture patterns and linkage disequilibrium between the neutral genetic background and color found exclusively within the secondary contact zone suggest limited introgression at secondary contact. These results from a system reminiscent of ring species provide a striking example of how local adaptation can evolve from derived genetic variation.