Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

A quantitative genetic signature of senescence in a short-lived perennial plant.

The evolution of senescence (the physiological decline of organisms with age) poses an apparent paradox because it represents a failure of natural selection to increase the survival and reproductive performance of organisms. The paradox can be resolved if natural selection becomes less effective with age, because the death of postreproductive individuals should have diminished effects on Darwinian fitness [1, 2]. A substantial body of empirical work is consistent with this prediction for animals, which transmit their genes to progeny via an immortal germline. However, such evidence is still lacking in plants, which lack a germline and whose reproduction is diffuse and modular across the soma. Here, we provide experimental evidence for a genetic basis of senescence in the short-lived perennial plant Silene latifolia. Our pedigree-based analysis revealed a marked increase with age in the additive genetic variance of traits closely associated with fitness. This result thus extends to plants the quantitative genetic support for the evolutionary theory of senescence.

Phase II study of temozolomide in combination with topotecan (TOTEM) in relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma: A European Innovative Therapies for Children with Cancer-SIOP-European Neuroblastoma study.

PURPOSE: To assess objective response rate (ORR) after two cycles of temozolomide in combination with topotecan (TOTEM) in children with refractory or relapsed neuroblastoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This multicenter, non-randomised, phase II study included children with neuroblastoma according to a two-stage Simon design. Eligibility criteria included relapsed or refractory, measurable or metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) evaluable disease, no more than two lines of prior treatment. Temozolomide was administered orally at 150mg/m(2) followed by topotecan at 0.75mg/m(2) intravenously for five consecutive days every 28days. Tumour response was assessed every two cycles according to International Neuroblastoma Response Criteria (INRC), and reviewed independently. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients were enroled and treated in 15 European centres with a median age of 5.4years. Partial tumour response after two cycles was observed in 7 out of 38 evaluable patients [ORR 18%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8-34%]. The best ORR whatever the time of evaluation was 24% (95% CI, 11-40%) with a median response duration of 8.5months. Tumour control rate (complete response (CR)+partial response (PR)+mixed response (MR)+stable disease (SD)) was 68% (95% CI, 63-90%). The 12-months Progression-Free and Overall Survival were 42% and 58% respectively. Among 213 treatment cycles (median 4, range 1-12 per patient) the most common treatment-related toxicities were haematologic. Grade 3/4 neutropenia occurred in 62% of courses in 89% of patients, grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia in 47% of courses in 71% of patients; three patients (8%) had febrile neutropenia. CONCLUSION: Temozolomide-Topotecan combination results in very encouraging ORR and tumour control in children with heavily pretreated recurrent and refractory neuroblastoma with favourable toxicity profile.

MOBP-specific cellular immune responses are weaker than MOG-specific cellular immune responses in patients with multiple sclerosis and healthy subjects.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) and myelin oligodendrocyte basic protein (MOBP) were both shown to be highly encephalitogenic in animal models of MS. In contrast, the association of MOG- and MOBP-specific humoral or cellular immune responses and MS in humans is far less established. In this study, we sought to analyse MOG- and MOBP-specific T-cell responses in a large cohort of patients with various stages of the disease. Patients with other neurological diseases and healthy subjects were enrolled to serve as control study subjects. We determined the proliferation and the secretion of IFN-γ secretion in our cohort. We found that MOG-specific T-cell responses were higher and more frequent as compared to MOBP-specific ones. However, both MS patients and control study subjects had similar myelin-specific T-cell responses at the periphery, thus calling for more precise studies at CNS level.

CpG-ODN-induced sustained expression of BTLA mediating selective inhibition of human B cells.

BTLA (B- and T-lymphocyte attenuator) is a prominent co-receptor that is structurally and functionally related to CTLA-4 and PD-1. In T cells, BTLA inhibits TCR-mediated activation. In B cells, roles and functions of BTLA are still poorly understood and have never been studied in the context of B cells activated by CpG via TLR9. In this study, we evaluated the expression of BTLA depending on activation and differentiation of human B cell subsets in peripheral blood and lymph nodes. Stimulation with CpG upregulated BTLA, but not its ligand: herpes virus entry mediator (HVEM), on B cells in vitro and sustained its expression in vivo in melanoma patients after vaccination. Upon ligation with HVEM, BTLA inhibited CpG-mediated B cell functions (proliferation, cytokine production, and upregulation of co-stimulatory molecules), which was reversed by blocking BTLA/HVEM interactions. Interestingly, chemokine secretion (IL-8 and MIP1β) was not affected by BTLA/HVEM ligation, suggesting that BTLA-mediated inhibition is selective for some but not all B cell functions. We conclude that BTLA is an important immune checkpoint for B cells, as similarly known for T cells.

Wandering, verbally and physically abusive behaviour and their relation with pain in nursing homes residents

Backgrounds:¦Behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) include, among others, hallucinations, delusions, depression, euphoria, agitation, aggression, sexual desinhibition, sleep disturbances, and apathy (1). To our knowledge, surprisingly few studies looked into the possible association between pain and BPSD in nursing home residents. Given this dearth of studies, we wondered whether or not there is an association, in nursing home residents, between pain and BPSD, in particular wandering as well as verbally and physically abusive behaviour, and whether or not this possible association changes with the degree of cognitive impairment.¦Method:¦All nursing home residents in the three Swiss cantons Aargau, Basel-City, and Solothurn (corresponding to 13.5%¦of the total Swiss population) receive a Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS)¦assessment within the first two weeks upon entry. This yielded a total sample of 16'430 nursing home residents considering that the residents' assessment took place between 1997 and 2007 and that we only took into account the admission RAI-MDS assessment. Only residents for whom data on pain was recorded were included in the study (n = 16'183).¦Results:¦Wandering correlated significantly with pain although the effect size was small (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.052; p = 0.000), a result very similar to that found for VAB (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.034; p = 0.000) and PAB (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.043; p = 0.000). Likewise, using linear regression analyses, pain was very significantly associated with any of the three BPSD considered, but it predicted astonishingly little of the¦variance observed (wandering: B = 0.036; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.002; VAB: B = 0.021; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.001 PAB: B = 0.012; p = 0.000; R2 = 0.001). The interaction of pain and cognition had a significant effect on the three BPSD, suggesting that cognition was a moderator of the relationship between pain and all three behaviours.¦Conclusion:¦Wandering behaviours, VAB and PAB seem to be predicted by many factors. Although pain predicts only a small part of variance of these behaviours, it still remains important to recognise and treat pain in order to reduce these behaviours at least a little both in intensity and frequency. Given the dearth of studies and their somewhat contradictory results, further studies ought to investigate the role, the type and localisation of pain might play on the expression of different BPSD or how residents suffering from dementia perceive pain.

Irinotecan loaded in eluting beads: preclinical assessment in a rabbit VX2 liver tumor model.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to study the pharmacokinetics of irinotecan injected intravenously, intra-arterially, or loaded onto a delivery platform. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Fifty-four New Zealand White rabbits with VX2 liver tumor, divided in 3 groups of 17 rabbits, each received irinotecan either by intravenous (IV) route, intra-arterial hepatic (IA) route, or loaded on drug-eluting beads (DEBIRI). Animals were killed at 1, 6, and 24 h. Irinotecan and SN-38 concentrations were measured at different time points in serum, tumor, and normal liver. RESULTS: Twelve milligrams of irinotecan were injected IV and IA, whereas 6-16.5 mg were injected loaded onto DEBIRI. Normalized serum irinotecan reached a peak of 333 ng/ml (range 198.8-502.5) for IV, 327.1 ng/ml (range 277.1-495.6) for IA, and 189.7 ng/ml (range 111.1-261.9) for DEBIRI (P < 0.001) delivery. The area-under-the-curve value from 10 to 60 min of serum irinotecan concentration was significantly lower for DEBIRI (P = 0.0009). Tumor irinotecan levels for IV, IA, and DEBIRI (in ng/200 mg of tissue followed by ranges in parentheses) were, respectively, 23.6 (0.3-24.9), 36.5 (7.7-1914.1), and 20.2 (2.9-319) at 1 h; 4.2 (1-27.9), 99.3 (46.6-159.5), and 42.1 (11.3-189) at 6 h; and 2.7 (2.5-6.9), 18.3 (1.5-369.1), and 174.4 (3.4-5147.3) at 24 h (P = 0.02). At 24 h, tumor necrosis was 25% (10-30), 60% (40-91.25), and 95% (76.25-95) for IV, IA, and DEBIRI, respectively (P = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Compared with IV or IA, DEBIRI induces lower early serum levels of irinotecan, a high and prolonged intratumoral level of irinotecan, and a greater rate of tumor necrosis at 24 h. Further evaluation of the clinical benefit of DEBIRI is warranted.

Long-term Outcome after Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Larger than 10 cm.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present study was to analyze long-term survival and disease-free survival after liver resection for giant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≥ 10 cm compared to HCC < 10 cm in diameter. The surgical approach in the treatment of giant HCC may achieve long-term survival and disease-free survival comparable to treatment of smaller lesions. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was a monocentric study conducted in a tertiary university center. It included 101 patients from 114 consecutive liver resections for HCC, separated into two groups: those with tumors less than 10 cm in diameter (small HCC; n = 79) and those with tumors larger than 10 cm (giant HCC; n = 22). The main outcome measures were overall five-year survival, five-year disease-free survival, recurrence rate, perioperative mortality at 30 days, surgical complication rate, and re-intervention rate. RESULTS: The two groups were homogeneously distributed, apart from cirrhosis, which was found more frequently in the group with small HCC (77 vs. 41 %; p = 0.0013). Both median survival (24 vs. 27 months; p = 0.0085) and overall 5-year survival (21 vs. 45; p = 0.04) were significantly poorer in the small HCC group compared to the giant HCC group. There were no differences en terms of recurrence rate, pattern, and timing. CONCLUSIONS: Liver resection for HCC larger than 10 cm is a valuable option in selected patients, one that provides overall survival and disease-free survival comparable to smaller lesions. Functional reserves of the liver, more than the size of the lesion, may be important in patient selection for surgical resection.

Next-generation sequencing of experimental mouse strains.

Since the turn of the century the complete genome sequence of just one mouse strain, C57BL/6J, has been available. Knowing the sequence of this strain has enabled large-scale forward genetic screens to be performed, the creation of an almost complete set of embryonic stem (ES) cell lines with targeted alleles for protein-coding genes, and the generation of a rich catalog of mouse genomic variation. However, many experiments that use other common laboratory mouse strains have been hindered by a lack of whole-genome sequence data for these strains. The last 5 years has witnessed a revolution in DNA sequencing technologies. Recently, these technologies have been used to expand the repertoire of fully sequenced mouse genomes. In this article we review the main findings of these studies and discuss how the sequence of mouse genomes is helping pave the way from sequence to phenotype. Finally, we discuss the prospects for using de novo assembly techniques to obtain high-quality assembled genome sequences of these laboratory mouse strains, and what advances in sequencing technologies may be required to achieve this goal.

Financial protection of patients through compensation of providers: the impact of Health Equity Funds in Cambodia

Public providers have no financial incentive to respect their legal obligation to exempt the poor from user fees. Health Equity Funds (HEFs) aim to make exemptions effective by giving NGOs responsibility for assessing eligibility and compensating providers for lost revenue. We use the geographic spread of HEFs over time in Cambodia to identify their impact on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Among households with some OOP payment, HEFs reduce the amount paid by 35%, on average. The effect is larger for households that are poorer and mainly use public health care. Reimbursement of providers through a government operated scheme also reduces household OOP payments but the effect is not as well targeted on the poor. Both compensation models raise household non-medical consumption but have no impact on health-related debt. HEFs reduce the probability of primarily seeking care in the private sector.

Astrocytic dysfunction: insights on the role in neurodegeneration.

For decades, astrocytes have been regarded as passive partners of neurons in central nervous system (CNS) function. Studies of the last 20 years, however, challenged this view by demonstrating that astrocytes possess functional receptors for neurotransmitters and respond to their stimulation via release of gliotransmitters, including glutamate. Notably, astrocytes react to synaptically released neurotransmitters with intracellular calcium ([Ca(2+)]) elevations, which result in the release of glutamate via regulated exocytosis and, possibly, other mechanisms. These findings have led to a new concept of neuron-glia intercommunication where astrocytes play an unsuspected dynamic role by integrating neuronal inputs and modulating synaptic activity. The additional observation that glutamate release from astrocytes is controlled by molecules linked to inflammatory reactions, such as the cytokine tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and prostaglandins (PGs), suggests that glia-to-neuron signalling may be sensitive to changes in the production of these mediators occurring in pathological conditions. Indeed, a local, parenchymal brain inflammatory reaction (neuroinflammation) characterized by astrocytic and microglial activation has been reported in several neurodegenerative disorders, including AIDS dementia complex, Alzheimer's disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This transition may be accompanied by functional de-regulation and even degeneration of the astrocytes with the consequent disruption of the cross-talk normally occurring between these cells and neurons. Incorrect neuron-astrocyte interactions may be involved in neuronal derangement and contribute to disease development. The findings reported in this review suggest that a better comprehension of the glutamatergic interplay between neurons and astrocytes may provide information about normal brain function and also highlight potential molecular targets for therapeutic interventions in pathology.

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

Biogeochemical weathering in sedimentary chronosequences of the Rhône and Oberaar Glaciers (Swiss Alps): rates and mechanisms of biotite weathering

We analysed the composition of phyllosilicate minerals in sediments deposited by the Rhone and Oberaar glaciers (Swiss Alps), in order to identify processes and rates of biogeochemical weathering in relation to glacial erosion. The investigated sediments are part of chronosequences consisting of (A) suspended, "fresh" sediment in melt water; (B) terminal moraines from the Little Ice Age (LIA; approximately 1560-1850); and (C) tilts of the Younger Dryas interval (YD; approximately 11'500y BP). Secondary weathering products associated with the suspended sediment have not been observed: we therefore exclude intermittent subglacial storage and weathering of this material and assume that the suspended sediment is directly derived from mechanically abraded bedrock. This implies that biogeochemical weathering processes started once the glacially-derived sediment was deposited in the proglacial area. The combination of a developing vegetation cover, the generally high permeability allowing the percolation of precipitation, and the chemical reactivity related to the dominance of fine-grained material (<63 pm) drives the weathering process and the initial Umbrepts present in LIA profiles undergo podzolisation and lead to the formation of Humods observed in YD profiles. Systematic XRD analyses of these chronosequences show a progressive decrease in biotite contents and a concomitant increase in pedogenically formed vermiculite with increasing sediment age. Biotite contents decrease by 25-50% in the upper 30 cm of the moraines after 145-275 yr in the proglacial environment. Biotite weathering rates are calculated using the difference in the biotite content between unweathered and weathered glacial sediments within the investigated profiles. The reactive mineral surface area is estimated geometrically, both with regards to the total relative surface (WRT) as well as to the relative edge surface (WRE). WRT Biotite weathering rates are estimated as 10(-13)-10-(15) mol(biotite) m(biotite)(-2) s(-1). WRE Biotite weathering rates are on the order of 10(-13)-10(-14) mol(biotite) m(biotite)(-2) s(-1). Biotite weathering rates obtained by this study are in the order of one magnitude higher in comparison to other published field-based weathering rates. Using biotite as an indicator, we therefore suggest that glacially-derived material in the area of the Oberaar and Rhone glaciers is generally subjected to enhanced biogeochemical weathering, starting immediately after deposition in the proglacial zone and subsequently continuing for thousands of years after glacier retreat.