Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

The TetR-type MfsR protein of the integrative and conjugative element (ICE) ICEclc controls both a putative efflux system and initiation of ICE transfer.

Integrative and conjugating elements (ICE) are self-transferable DNAs widely present in bacterial genomes, which often carry a variety of auxiliary genes of potential adaptive benefit. One of the model ICE is ICEclc, an element originally found in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13 and known for its propensity to provide its host with the capacity to metabolize chlorocatechols and 2-aminophenol. In this work, we studied the mechanism and target of regulation of MfsR, a TetR-type repressor previously found to exert global control on ICEclc horizontal transfer. By using a combination of ICEclc mutant and transcriptome analysis, gene reporter fusions, and DNA binding assays, we found that MfsR is a repressor of both its own expression and that of a gene cluster putatively coding for a major facilitator superfamily efflux system on ICEclc (named mfsABC). Phylogenetic analysis suggests that mfsR was originally located immediately adjacent to the efflux pump genes but became displaced from its original cis target DNA by a gene insertion. This resulted in divergence of the original bidirectional promoters into two separated individual regulatory units. Deletion of mfsABC did not result in a strong phenotype, and despite screening a large number of compounds and conditions, we were unable to define the precise current function or target of the putative efflux pump. Our data reconstruct how the separation of an ancestor mfsR-mfsABC system led to global control of ICEclc transfer by MfsR.

LIF and sIL-2R plasma concentrations in IVF patients on the day of embryo transfer: predictive markers of IVF outcome.

Successful implantation is still the limiting step in IVF. We hypothesized that maternal plasma concentrations of certain cytokines at the time of embryo transfer could predict the likelihood of successful implantation and pregnancy. sIL-2R, IL-6, LIF, and MMP2 concentrations were measured in plasma from 160 IVF patients (natural and stimulated IVF cycles) on the morning of the embryo transfer (ET0) and 14days later (ET+14). Patients were ultimately subdivided into four groups depending on the IVF treatment outcome (pregnancy failure, biochemical pregnancy, first-trimester miscarriage and normal term delivery). In natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, sIL-2R concentrations were threefold higher in biochemical pregnancies than in pregnancy failures (P=0.020), and in natural cycles only, 2.5-fold higher in normal term deliveries than in pregnancy failures (P=0.023). Conversely, in natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, LIF concentrations were one third lower in biochemical pregnancies/first-trimester miscarriages compared with pregnancy failures (P=0.042). We suggest that high sIL-2R and low LIF concentrations in maternal plasma on the morning of the embryo transfer might be associated with increased risks of early pregnancy loss, while a basal level of sIL-2R is necessary for normal term delivery outcome. Both cytokine measurements might therefore be useful in the management of IVF patients, and modulation of their concentrations could be investigated as a therapeutic alternative for women with abnormal concentrations at the time of embryo transfer.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Translation to success of surgical innovation.

Contemporary thoracic and cardiovascular surgery uses extensive equipment and devices to enable its performance. As the specialties develop and new frontiers are crossed, the technology needs to advance in a parallel fashion. Strokes of genius or problem-solving brain-storming may generate great ideas, but the metamorphosis of an idea into a physical functioning tool requires a lot more than just a thinking process. A modern surgical device is the end-point of a sophisticated, complicated and potentially treacherous route, which incorporates new skills and knowledge acquisition. Processes including technology transfer, commercialisation, corporate and product development, intellectual property and regulatory routes all play pivotal roles in this voyage. Many good ideas may fall by the wayside for a multitude of reasons as they may not be marketable or may be badly marketed. In this article, we attempt to illuminate the components required in the process of surgical innovation, which we believe must remain in the remit of the modern-day thoracic and cardiovascular surgeon.

Intralesional adenovirus-mediated interleukin-2 gene transfer for advanced solid cancers and melanoma.

Numerous preclinical and clinical studies have shown that interleukin-2 (IL-2) induces regression of metastatic tumors. We have conducted a phase I/II, multicenter, open-label, dose-escalating study to evaluate the safety, efficacy, and biological effects of repeated intratumoral injections of adenovirus-IL-2 (TG1024) in patients with advanced solid tumors and melanoma. Thirty five patients (twenty-five with metastatic melanoma and ten with other solid tumors) were treated in eight successive cohorts at dose levels ranging from 3 x 10(8) to 3 x 10(11) viral particles (vp). Intratumoral TG1024 injections in combination with dacarbazine (DTIC) were tested in metastatic melanoma in one cohort. No clinical responses were observed at doses below 3 x 10(11) vp. Six local objective responses were recorded in patients receiving 3 x 10(11) vp per treatment [five in metastatic melanoma and one in metastatic squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin], of which two were complete responses (CRs). Most of the common side effects were injection site reactions and flu-like syndrome. TG1024 dose intensification across cohorts resulted in increased serum IL-2 levels after the injection. Intratumoral TG1024 injection induced pronounced inflammation of the treated lesion, with predominant CD8(+), TIA+ lymphocytic infiltrate. Our results show that intratumoral injections of TG1024 are safe and well tolerated. The clinical activity of TG1024 observed in this study warrants further investigations.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Localized in vivo hyperpolarization transfer sequences.

In vivo localized and fully adiabatic homonuclear and heteronuclear polarization transfer experiments were designed and performed in the rat brain at 9.4 T after infusion of hyperpolarized sodium [1,2-(13)C(2)] and sodium [1-(13)C] acetate. The method presented herein leads to highly enhanced in vivo detection of short-T(1) (13)C as well as attached protons. This indirect detection scheme allows for probing additional molecular sites in hyperpolarized substrates and their metabolites and can thus lead to improved spectral resolution such as in the case of (13)C-acetate metabolism.

Microsomal triglyceride transfer protein promotes the secretion of Xenopus laevis vitellogenin A1.

Vitellogenins (Vtg) are ancient lipid transport and storage proteins and members of the large lipid transfer protein (LLTP) gene family, which includes insect apolipophorin II/I, apolipoprotein B (apoB), and the microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTP). Lipidation of Vtg occurs at its site of synthesis in vertebrate liver, insect fat body, and nematode intestine; however, the mechanism of Vtg lipid acquisition is unknown. To explore whether Vtg biogenesis requires the apoB cofactor and LLTP family member, MTP, Vtg was expressed in COS cells with and without coexpression of the 97-kDa subunit of human MTP. Expression of Vtg alone gave rise to a approximately 220-kDa apoprotein, which was predominantly confined to an intracellular location. Coexpression of Vtg with human MTP enhanced Vtg secretion by 5-fold, without dramatically affecting its intracellular stability. A comparison of wild type and a triglyceride transfer-defective form of MTP revealed that both were capable of promoting Vtg secretion, whereas only wild type MTP could promote the secretion of apoB41 (amino-terminal 41% of apoB). These studies demonstrate that the biogenesis of Vtg is MTP-dependent and that MTP is the likely ancestral member of the LLTP gene family.