115 resultados para simultaneous monitoring of process mean and variance
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Hypertensive patients often experience poor adherence to treatment, a frequent cause of uncontrolled blood pressure. In this study, we have evaluated whether or not the use of electronic monitoring for drug adherence is a useful approach to identify and correct compliance problems in hypertensive patients, which may ultimately enhance the effect of antihypertensive therapy. Sixty-nine treated patients with an office blood pressure greater than 140/90 mm Hg were enrolled in this study. With patient consent, current antihypertensive therapy was dispensed in electronic pillboxes that record the time and date of each opening without changing the drug regimen. The intention was to provide physicians with objective measurements of drug compliance. The monitoring of compliance per se without any other intervention induced a marked decrease of blood pressure in the whole group (from 159/104Â+/-23/12 mm Hg to 143/92Â+/-20/15, meansÂ+/-standard deviation, p less than 0.001). A complete normalization of blood pressure (less than 140/90 mm Hg) was obtained in one third of the patients (group 1, n=23) during the monitoring period. A significant improvement of blood pressure control was found in another third (group 2, n=23), whereas in the remaining patients (group 3, n=23) no change in blood pressure was observed. The distribution of individual compliance values, as well as the mean compliances was comparable in the three subgroups. Conversely, the compliance reports have identified several potentially overtreated patients in group 1, a large number of patients with a poor adherence to the prescribed therapy in all groups, and patients who clearly needed a change in pharmacotherapy mainly in group 3. Thus, our results suggest that electronic monitoring of compliance can considerably enhance the efficacy of antihypertensive therapy in patients with uncontrolled hypertension. This procedure should be used more extensively in clinical practice whenever the blood pressure response to therapy appears insufficient. (c)2000 by Le Jacq Communications, Inc.
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Many interventions promoting physical activity (PA) are effective in preventing disease onset, and although studies have found a positive relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and PA, most of these studies have focused on older adults and those with chronic conditions. Less is known regarding the association between PA level and HRQL among healthy adults. Our objective was to analyse the relationship between PA level and HRQL among a sample of 573 employees aged 20-68 taking part in a workplace intervention to promote PA. Measures included HRQL (using a single item) and PA (i.e. Godin Leisure-Time Questionnaire). The Modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (MCAFT) was also completed by 10% of the employees. MET-minute scores (assessing energy expenditure over one week) were compared across HRQL categories using ANOVA. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to further examine the relationship between HRQL and PA, controlling for potential covariates. Participants in the higher health status categories were found to report higher levels of energy expenditure (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression model, each unit increase in health status level translated in a mean increase of 356 MET-minutes in energy expenditure (p < 0.001). This single-item assessment of health status explained six percent of the variance in energy expenditure. The study concludes that higher energy expenditure through PA among an adult workplace population is positively associated with increased health status, and it also suggests that a single-item HRQL measure is suitable for community- and population-based studies, reducing response burden and research costs.
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In this work we analyze how patchy distributions of CO2 and brine within sand reservoirs may lead to significant attenuation and velocity dispersion effects, which in turn may have a profound impact on surface seismic data. The ultimate goal of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of these processes within the framework of the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration, a key strategy to mitigate global warming. We first carry out a Monte Carlo analysis to study the statistical behavior of attenuation and velocity dispersion of compressional waves traveling through rocks with properties similar to those at the Utsira Sand, Sleipner field, containing quasi-fractal patchy distributions of CO2 and brine. These results show that the mean patch size and CO2 saturation play key roles in the observed wave-induced fluid flow effects. The latter can be remarkably important when CO2 concentrations are low and mean patch sizes are relatively large. To analyze these effects on the corresponding surface seismic data, we perform numerical simulations of wave propagation considering reservoir models and CO2 accumulation patterns similar to the CO2 injection site in the Sleipner field. These numerical experiments suggest that wave-induced fluid flow effects may produce changes in the reservoir's seismic response, modifying significantly the main seismic attributes usually employed in the characterization of these environments. Consequently, the determination of the nature of the fluid distributions as well as the proper modeling of the seismic data constitute important aspects that should not be ignored in the seismic monitoring of CO2 sequestration problems.
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Background: Recent data have suggested that a population of CD4+ CD25high T cells, phenotypically characterized by the expression of CD45RO and CD127, is significantly expanded in stable liver and kidney transplant recipients and represents alloreactive T cells. Induction therapies may have an impact on this alloreactive T cell population. In this study, we prospectively analyzed CD4+ CD25high CD45RO+ CD127high T cells after induction with either thymoglobulin or basiliximab. Patients and methods: A total of twenty-seven kidney transplant recipients were prospectively enrolled; 14 received thymoglobulin induction followed by a 4-day course of steroids with tacrolimus and mycophenolate mofetil («thymo group»), and 13 received basiliximab induction followed by standard triple immunosuppression (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone) («BSX group»). Phenotypical analysis by flow cytometry of the expression of CD25, CD45RO and CD127 on peripheral CD4+ T cells was performed at 0, 3 and 6 months after transplantation. Twenty-four healthy subjects (HS) were studied as controls. Results: There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups; at 6 months, patient survival (100%), graft survival (100%), serum creatinine (thymo group versus BSX group: 129 versus 125 micromol/l) and acute rejection (2/14 versus 2/13) were not significantly different. Thymo induction produced a prolonged CD4 T cell depletion. As compared to pre-transplantation values, an expansion of the alloreactive T cell population was observed at 3 months in both thymo (mean: from 6.38% to 14.72%) and BSX (mean: from 8.01% to 18.42%) groups. At 6 months, the alloreactive T cell population remained significantly expanded in the thymo group (16.92 ± 2.87%) whereas it tended to decrease in the BSX group (10.22 ± 1.38%). Conclusion: Overall, our results indicate that the expansion of alloreactive T cells occurs rapidly after transplantation in patients receiving either thymo or BSX induction. Whether differences at later timepoints or whether different IS regimens may modify this alloreactive population remains to be studied.
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Timing effects of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) combined with external-beam radiotherapy (RT) were assessed in human colon carcinoma xenografts. Initially, dose effects of fractionated RT and RIT were evaluated separately. Then, 30 Gy RT (10 fractions over 12 days) were combined with three weekly i.v. injections of 200 microCi of 131I-labeled anti-carcinoembryonic antigen monoclonal antibodies in four different treatment schedules. RIT was given either prior to, concurrently, immediately after, or 2 weeks after RT administration. The longest regrowth delay (RD) of 105 days was observed in mice treated by concurrent administration of RT and RIT, whereas the RDs of RT and RIT alone were 34 and 20 days, respectively. The three sequential combination treatments produced significantly shorter RDs ranging from 62 to 70 days. The tumor response represented by the minimal volume (MV) also showed that concurrent administration of RT and RIT gave the best result, with a mean MV of 4.5% as compared to MVs from 26 to 53% for the three sequential treatments. The results were confirmed in a second experiment, in which a RT of 40 Gy was combined with an identical RIT as above (three injections of 200 microCi of 131I-labeled monoclonal antibodies). At comparable toxicity levels, the maximum tolerated RT or RIT alone gave shorter RDs and less tumor shrinkage compared to simultaneous RT+ RIT. These results may be useful for designing clinical protocols of combined RIT and RT.
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PurposeThe purpose of this study was to report the 2-year outcome of an individually tailored 'observe-and-plan' treatment regimen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), and to investigate its clinical value in terms of functional outcome. This regimen aimed to reduce the clinical burden (visits) by employing individually fixed injection intervals, based on the predictability of an individual's need for retreatment.MethodsThis prospective case series included 104 patients (115 eyes) with nAMD. Following three loading doses of ranibizumab, the disease recurrence interval was determined in monthly observation visits. Retreatment was applied in a series of three injections with individually fixed intervals (2 weeks shorter than the recurrence interval), combined with periodic adjustment of the intervals. The allowed injection intervals in treatment plans ranged from 1 to 3 months. If there was no recurrence at 3 months, the patient could change to monitoring alone.ResultsMean visual acuity (VA) improved by 8.7, 9.7, and 9.2 letters at months 3, 12, and 24, respectively. The mean number of injections was 7.8 and 5.8 during years 1 and 2, respectively, whereas the mean number of ophthalmic examinations was 4.0 and 2.9, respectively. The mean treatment interval (after the loading doses) was 2.0 months during year 1, and 2.2 months during year 2.ConclusionThe observe-and-plan regimen significantly improved and maintained VA over the course of 2 years. This favourable functional outcome was achieved with fewer clinic visits compared with other regimens. Therefore, this observe-and-plan regimen has the potential to alleviate the clinical burden of nAMD treatment.Eye advance online publication, 7 November 2014; doi:10.1038/eye.2014.258.
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Knowledge of the quantitative genetics of resistance to parasitism is key to appraise host evolutionary responses to parasite selection. Here, we studied effects of common origin (i.e. genetic and pre-hatching parental effects) and common rearing environment (i.e. post-hatching parental effects and other environment effects) on variance in ectoparasite load in nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). This colonial bird is intensely parasitized by blood sucking louse-flies that impair nestling development and survival. By cross-fostering half of the hatchlings between pairs of nests, we show strong significant effect of common rearing environment on variance (90.7% in 2002 and 90.9% in 2003) in the number of louse-flies per nestling and no significant effect of common origin on variance in the number of louse-flies per nestling. In contrast, significant effects of common origin were found for all the nestling morphological traits (i.e. body mass, wing length, tail length, fork length and sternum length) under investigation. Hence, our study suggests that genetic and pre-hatching parental effects play little role in the distribution of parasites among nestling Alpine swifts, and thus that nestlings have only limited scope for evolutionary responses against parasites. Our results highlight the need to take into consideration environmental factors, including the evolution of post-hatching parental effects such as nest sanitation, in our understanding of host-parasite relationships.
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.
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A radiochemical procedure was developed for the sequential determination of Pu and Am radioisotopes in environmental samples. The radioisotope activities were then used to assess the origin and release date of the environmental plutonium. The radioanalytical procedure is based on the separation of Pu and Am on selective extraction chromatographic resins (Eichrom TEVA and DGA). Alpha sources were prepared by electrodeposition on stainless steel discs, and the alpha emitting radionuclides (238Pu, 239,240Pu and 241Am) were measured by alpha spectrometry. For the determination of the beta emitting 241Pu, the Pu alpha source was leached in hot concentrated nitric acid and the Pu fraction further purified by extraction chromatography on a small column of TEVA resin (100 μg of resin in a pipette tip). 241Pu is then measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation counting. Due to the lack of reference material for 241Pu, the proposed radiochemical method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values of 241Pu. The proposed method was then used to determine the 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am activity concentrations in alpine soils of France and Switzerland. The soil is the primary receptor of the atmospheric radioactive fallout and, because of the strong binding interaction with soils particles, the isotopes are little fractionated. Therefore, the activity ratios 241Pu/239+240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu in soil samples were used to determine the origin (source) and date of the Pu contamination in the investigated alpine sites. The 241Pu/239,240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu activity ratios confirmed that the main origin of Pu in the alpine soils was the global fallout from the nuclear bomb tests (NBT) in the fifties and sixties. Furthermore, the 241Pu/241Am activity ratios were used to determine the age of the Pu contamination, which is also an important data for distinguishing the Pu sources. The estimation of the date of the contamination, by the 241Pu/241Am age-dating method, further confirmed the NBT as the Pu source. However, the 241Pu/241Am dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident in the studied sites is negligible.
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Summary Detection, analysis and monitoring of slope movements by high-resolution digital elevation modelsSlope movements, such as rockfalls, rockslides, shallow landslides or debris flows, are frequent in many mountainous areas. These natural hazards endanger the inhabitants and infrastructures making it necessary to assess the hazard and risk caused by these phenomena. This PhD thesis explores various approaches using digital elevation models (DEMs) - and particularly high-resolution DEMs created by aerial or terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) - that contribute to the assessment of slope movement hazard at regional and local scales.The regional detection of areas prone to rockfalls and large rockslides uses different morphologic criteria or geometric instability factors derived from DEMs, i.e. the steepness of the slope, the presence of discontinuities, which enable a sliding mechanism, and the denudation potential. The combination of these factors leads to a map of susceptibility to rockfall initiation that is in good agreement with field studies as shown with the example of the Little Mill Campground area (Utah, USA). Another case study in the Illgraben catchment in the Swiss Alps highlighted the link between areas with a high denudation potential and actual rockfall areas.Techniques for a detailed analysis and characterization of slope movements based on high-resolution DEMs have been developed for specific, localized sites, i.e. ancient slide scars, present active instabilities or potential slope instabilities. The analysis of the site's characteristics mainly focuses on rock slopes and includes structural analyses (orientation of discontinuities); estimation of spacing, persistence and roughness of discontinuities; failure mechanisms based on the structural setting; and volume calculations. For the volume estimation a new 3D approach was tested to reconstruct the topography before a landslide or to construct the basal failure surface of an active or potential instability. The rockslides at Åknes, Tafjord and Rundefjellet in western Norway were principally used as study sites to develop and test the different techniques.The monitoring of slope instabilities investigated in this PhD thesis is essentially based on multitemporal (or sequential) high-resolution DEMs, in particular sequential point clouds acquired by TLS. The changes in the topography due to slope movements can be detected and quantified by sequential TLS datasets, notably by shortest distance comparisons revealing the 3D slope movements over the entire region of interest. A detailed analysis of rock slope movements is based on the affine transformation between an initial and a final state of the rock mass and its decomposition into translational and rotational movements. Monitoring using TLS was very successful on the fast-moving Eiger rockslide in the Swiss Alps, but also on the active rockslides of Åknes and Nordnesfjellet (northern Norway). One of the main achievements on the Eiger and Aknes rockslides is to combine the site's morphology and structural setting with the measured slope movements to produce coherent instability models. Both case studies also highlighted a strong control of the structures in the rock mass on the sliding directions. TLS was also used to monitor slope movements in soils, such as landslides in sensitive clays in Québec (Canada), shallow landslides on river banks (Sorge River, Switzerland) and a debris flow channel (Illgraben).The PhD thesis underlines the broad uses of high-resolution DEMs and especially of TLS in the detection, analysis and monitoring of slope movements. Future studies should explore in more depth the different techniques and approaches developed and used in this PhD, improve them and better integrate the findings in current hazard assessment practices and in slope stability models.Résumé Détection, analyse et surveillance de mouvements de versant à l'aide de modèles numériques de terrain de haute résolutionDes mouvements de versant, tels que des chutes de blocs, glissements de terrain ou laves torrentielles, sont fréquents dans des régions montagneuses et mettent en danger les habitants et les infrastructures ce qui rend nécessaire d'évaluer le danger et le risque causé par ces phénomènes naturels. Ce travail de thèse explore diverses approches qui utilisent des modèles numériques de terrain (MNT) et surtout des MNT de haute résolution créés par scanner laser terrestre (SLT) ou aérien - et qui contribuent à l'évaluation du danger de mouvements de versant à l'échelle régionale et locale.La détection régionale de zones propices aux chutes de blocs ou aux éboulements utilise plusieurs critères morphologiques dérivés d'un MNT, tels que la pente, la présence de discontinuités qui permettent un mécanisme de glissement ou le potentiel de dénudation. La combinaison de ces facteurs d'instabilité mène vers une carte de susceptibilité aux chutes de blocs qui est en accord avec des travaux de terrain comme démontré avec l'exemple du Little Mill Campground (Utah, États-Unis). Un autre cas d'étude - l'Illgraben dans les Alpes valaisannes - a mis en évidence le lien entre les zones à fort potentiel de dénudation et les sources effectives de chutes de blocs et d'éboulements.Des techniques pour l'analyse et la caractérisation détaillée de mouvements de versant basées sur des MNT de haute résolution ont été développées pour des sites spécifiques et localisés, comme par exemple des cicatrices d'anciens éboulements et des instabilités actives ou potentielles. Cette analyse se focalise principalement sur des pentes rocheuses et comprend l'analyse structurale (orientation des discontinuités); l'estimation de l'espacement, la persistance et la rugosité des discontinuités; l'établissement des mécanismes de rupture; et le calcul de volumes. Pour cela une nouvelle approche a été testée en rétablissant la topographie antérieure au glissement ou en construisant la surface de rupture d'instabilités actuelles ou potentielles. Les glissements rocheux d'Åknes, Tafjord et Rundefjellet en Norvège ont été surtout utilisés comme cas d'étude pour développer et tester les diverses approches. La surveillance d'instabilités de versant effectuée dans cette thèse de doctorat est essentiellement basée sur des MNT de haute résolution multi-temporels (ou séquentiels), en particulier des nuages de points séquentiels acquis par SLT. Les changements topographiques dus aux mouvements de versant peuvent être détectés et quantifiés sur l'ensemble d'un glissement, notamment par comparaisons des distances les plus courtes entre deux nuages de points. L'analyse détaillée des mouvements est basée sur la transformation affine entre la position initiale et finale d'un bloc et sa décomposition en mouvements translationnels et rotationnels. La surveillance par SLT a démontré son potentiel avec l'effondrement d'un pan de l'Eiger dans les Alpes suisses, mais aussi aux glissements rocheux d'Aknes et Nordnesfjellet en Norvège. Une des principales avancées à l'Eiger et à Aknes est la création de modèles d'instabilité cohérents en combinant la morphologie et l'agencement structural des sites avec les mesures de déplacements. Ces deux cas d'étude ont aussi démontré le fort contrôle des structures existantes dans le massif rocheux sur les directions de glissement. Le SLT a également été utilisé pour surveiller des glissements dans des terrains meubles comme dans les argiles sensibles au Québec (Canada), sur les berges de la rivière Sorge en Suisse et dans le chenal à laves torrentielles de l'Illgraben.Cette thèse de doctorat souligne le vaste champ d'applications des MNT de haute résolution et particulièrement du SLT dans la détection, l'analyse et la surveillance des mouvements de versant. Des études futures devraient explorer plus en profondeur les différentes techniques et approches développées, les améliorer et mieux les intégrer dans des pratiques actuelles d'analyse de danger et surtout dans la modélisation de stabilité des versants.
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The toxicity of yew (Taxus spp) is well known from ancient times and is mainly due to taxins acting as inhibitors of calcium and sodium transport across the cell membrane of cardiac myocytes. The confirmation of yew taxins in body fluids can be carried out by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). However, before selecting this precise but expensive technique, an orientation test should be done to ascertain yew presence as toxic agent in the organism. As the 3,5-dimethoxyphenol (3,5-DMP), myrtenol and 1-octen-3-ol appear as glycosidically bound volatile compounds and are very yew specific, the detection of 3,5-DMP and the measurement of 1-octen-3-ol / myrtenol concentration ratio constitute reliable indicators of yew presence in forensic cases. The detection of these compounds is easily performed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) (SIM) after an enzymatic hydrolysis (β-glucosidase) allowing the release of volatile compounds from yew glycosides. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.
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Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.