Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Interventions aiming at balance confidence improvement in older adults: an updated review.

BACKGROUND: Loss of balance confidence is a frequent condition that affects 20-75% of community-dwelling older persons. Although a recent fall is a common trigger, loss of balance confidence also appears independent of previous experience with falls. Maintaining or improving balance confidence is important to avoid unnecessary, self-imposed restrictions of activity and subsequent disability. Holding another person's hand or using an assistive device while walking are simple interventions that are used naturally to address poor balance confidence in daily life. However, more complex interventions have also been developed and tested to achieve more sustained improvement in balance confidence. OBJECTIVES: This review describes interventions that have been tested to improve balance confidence in older community-dwelling persons. METHODS: Based on 2 recent systematic reviews, an additional search for literature was performed to update current information on interventions aiming at balance confidence improvement. Interventions were classified as those directly aimed at increasing balance confidence or not, and further stratified into those using monofactorial or multifactorial approaches. RESULTS: A total of 46 randomized controlled trials were identified. Five of the 8 interventions that directly targeted balance confidence showed benefits. Among those, multicomponent behavioral group interventions provided the most robust evidence of benefits in improving balance confidence and in decreasing activity avoidance. Among interventions not directly aiming at balance confidence improvement (11/21 studies with benefits), exercise (including tai chi) appears as the most promising monofactorial intervention. Nine of the 17 multifactorial fall prevention programs showed an effect on balance confidence, exercise being a main component in 7 of these 9 studies. Interventions that targeted elderly persons reporting poor balance confidence and/or those at risk for falls seemed more likely to be beneficial. CONCLUSIONS: Positive and sometimes sustained improvement in balance confidence can be achieved by various interventions among community-dwelling elderly persons. The effect of these interventions on activity restriction associated with poor balance confidence have been less well studied, but some studies also suggest potential benefits.

Physical activity under confinement and free-living conditions.

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the physical activity (PA) and its related variables under confinement and in free-living conditions in Asian individuals, where no such information presently exists. The subjects consisted of eighty-six Japanese individuals with a mean age of 38+/-12 years. Under confinement in a large respiratory chamber, the energy expenditure (EE) was measured for 24h. In addition, two moderate walking exercises of 30 min each on a horizontal treadmill were assigned. Free-living measurements of 7 days were also performed using a validated accelerometer. The PA level in the chamber (1.47+/-0.11), expressed as a multiple of the basal EE, was lower than that in free-living conditions (1.53+/-0.12) (p<0.001). However, the two values were closely correlated (r=0.744, p<0.001). Conversely, a residual analysis showed a wide variation in the mean difference for both conditions and revealed a significant systematic error (r=-0.548, p<0.001), thus indicating an increased gap with increasing PA levels in free-living conditions. Similar results were obtained following the exclusion of the imposed exercise sessions. In contrast, the daily step counts under both conditions did not show any correlation. The PA level in the chamber (including and excluding imposed walking exercises) is compatible with the PA level in free-living conditions at the group level, although the daily step counts are unrelated. Thus, the PA level in the chamber may provide valuable information to help us achieve a better understanding of human PA in daily life as it is related to behavioral research.

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Simple-sugar meals target GLUT2 at enterocyte apical membranes to improve sugar absorption: a study in GLUT2-null mice.

The physiological significance of the presence of GLUT2 at the food-facing pole of intestinal cells is addressed by a study of fructose absorption in GLUT2-null and control mice submitted to different sugar diets. Confocal microscopy localization, protein and mRNA abundance, as well as tissue and membrane vesicle uptakes of fructose were assayed. GLUT2 was located in the basolateral membrane of mice fed a meal devoid of sugar or containing complex carbohydrates. In addition, the ingestion of a simple sugar meal promoted the massive recruitment of GLUT2 to the food-facing membrane. Fructose uptake in brush-border membrane vesicles from GLUT2-null mice was half that of wild-type mice and was similar to the cytochalasin B-insensitive component, i.e. GLUT5-mediated uptake. A 5 day consumption of sugar-rich diets increased fructose uptake fivefold in wild-type tissue rings when it only doubled in GLUT2-null tissue. GLUT5 was estimated to contribute to 100 % of total uptake in wild-type mice fed low-sugar diets, falling to 60 and 40 % with glucose and fructose diets respectively; the complement was ensured by GLUT2 activity. The results indicate that basal sugar uptake is mediated by the resident food-facing SGLT1 and GLUT5 transporters, whose mRNA abundances double in long-term dietary adaptation. We also observe that a large improvement of intestinal absorption is promoted by the transient recruitment of food-facing GLUT2, induced by the ingestion of a simple-sugar meal. Thus, GLUT2 and GLUT5 could exert complementary roles in adapting the absorption capacity of the intestine to occasional or repeated loads of dietary sugars.

HIV disclosure and nondisclosure among migrant women from sub-Saharan Africa living in Switzerland.

No study to date has focused specifically on the reasons for and against disclosure of HIV-positive status among sub-Saharan migrant women. Thirty HIV-positive women from 11 sub-Saharan countries living in French-speaking Switzerland participated in semi-structured individual interviews. The reasons women reported for disclosure or nondisclosure of their HIV serostatus were classified into three categories: social, medical, and ethical. The women identified the stigma associated with HIV as a major social reason for nondisclosure. However, this study identifies new trends related to disclosure for medical and ethical reasons. Being undetectable played an important role in the life of sub-Saharan migrant women, and analysis revealed their medical reasons for both disclosure and nondisclosure. Disclosure to new sexual partners occurred when women had a more positive perception about HIV and when they believed themselves to be in a long-term relationship. Women reported nondisclosure to family members when they did not need help outside the support provided by the medical and social fields. The results on ethical reasons suggested that challenging stigma was a reason for disclosure. Since the women' perceptions on HIV changed when they came to see it as a chronic disease, disclosure occurred in an attempt to normalize life with HIV in their communities in migration and to challenge racism and discrimination. Our findings can help health providers better understand the communication needs of sub-Saharan migrant women with respect to HIV/AIDS and sexuality and offer them adequate disclosure advice that takes into account migration and gender issues.

Modified Blalock Taussig shunt: a not-so-simple palliative procedure.

OBJECTIVES: Thirty-two consecutive isolated modified Blalock Taussig (BT) shunts performed in infancy since 2004 were reviewed and analysed to identify the risk factors for shunt intervention and mortality. METHODS: Sternotomy was the only approach used. Median age and weight were 10.5 (range 1-74) days and 2.9 (1.9-4.4) kg, respectively. Shunt palliation was performed for biventricular hearts (Tetralogy of Fallot/double outlet right ventricle/transposition of great arteries_ventricular septal defect_pulmonary stenosis/pulmonary atresia_ventricular septal defect/others) in 21, and univentricular hearts in 11, patients. Hypoplastic left heart syndrome patients were excluded. Two procedures required cardiopulmonary bypass. Median shunt size was 3.5 (3-4) mm and median shunt size/kg body weight was 1.2 (0.9-1.7) mm/kg. Reduction in shunt size was necessary in 5 of 32 (16%) patients. RESULTS: Three of 32 (9%) patients died after 3 (1-15) days due to cardiorespiratory decompensation. Lower body weight (P = 0.04) and bigger shunt size/kg of body weight (P = 0.004) were significant risk factors for mortality. Acute shunt thrombosis was observed in 3 of 32 (9%), none leading to death. Need for cardiac decongestive therapy was associated with univentricular hearts (P < 0.001), bigger shunt size (P = 0.054) and longer hospital stay (P = 0.005). Twenty-eight patients have undergone a successful shunt takedown at a median age of 5.5 (0.5-11.9) months, without late mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Palliation with a modified BT shunt continues to be indicated despite increased thrust on primary corrective surgery. Though seemingly simple, it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Effective over-shunting and acute shunt thrombosis are the lingering problems of shunt therapy.

Scaffold attachment factor B1 directly interacts with nuclear receptors in living cells and represses transcriptional activity.

Transcriptional activity relies on coregulators that modify the chromatin structure and serve as bridging factors between transcription factors and the basal transcription machinery. Using the DE domain of human peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma) as bait in a yeast two-hybrid screen of a human adipose tissue library, we isolated the scaffold attachment factor B1 (SAFB1/HET/HAP), which was previously shown to be a corepressor of estrogen receptor alpha. We show here that SAFB1 has a very broad tissue expression profile in human and is also expressed all along mouse embryogenesis. SAFB1 interacts in pull-down assays not only with PPARgamma but also with all nuclear receptors tested so far, albeit with different affinities. The association of SAFB1 and PPARgamma in vivo is further demonstrated by fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments in living cells. We finally show that SAFB1 is a rather general corepressor for nuclear receptors. Its change in expression during the early phases of adipocyte and enterocyte differentiation suggests that SAFB1 potentially influences cell proliferation and differentiation decisions.

Role of intra-operative duplex ultrasound in living renal donor transplantation

Objective: The treatment of choice in end-stage renal disease is¦transplantation.¦Hemodynamic disturbances can evoke graft loss, while early ultrasound¦identification of vascular problems improves outcome. The primary endpoint¦of this study was to identify differences in post-op complications with and¦without systematic, intraoperative Doppler ultrasound use. A secondary aim¦was to find a predictive resistance index limit which would show where surgical¦reintervention was necessary.¦Methods: Between Jan 2000 and Dec 2010, 108 renal transplants were¦performed from living donors at our institution. In group 1 (n = 67),¦intra-operative duplex ultrasound and intra-parenchymatous resistance index¦measurements assessed patients, while in group 2 (n = 41), no ultrasound was¦performed.¦Results. There were no inter-group differences in the overall post-op¦complication rate or in benefit to graft or patient survival with Doppler use,¦however, significantly more vascular complications (10% vs. 0%, p = 0·02) and¦more acute rejections (37% vs. 10%) occurred in group 2 than in group 1,¦respectively. When the resistance index was <0·5 intra-operatively, immediate¦surgical revision was undertaken to raise the index >0·6.¦Results: There were no inter-group differences in the overall post-op¦complication rate or in benefit to graft or patient survival with Doppler use,¦however, significantly more vascular complications (10% vs. 0%, p = 0·02) and¦more acute rejections (37% vs. 10%) occurred in group 2 than in group 1,¦respectively. When the resistance index was <0·5 intra-operatively, immediate¦surgical revision was undertaken to raise the index >0·6.¦Conclusion: This is the first report demonstrating benefits of systematic¦intraoperative Doppler ultrasound on post-operative complications in renal¦transplantation from living donors. Our results support surgical revision with a¦resistance index <0·5.

Comment prévenir les chutes chez les personnes âgées vivant à domicile: revue Cochrane pour le praticien. [How to prevent falls among elderly living at home]

Free fulltex: http://www.res_franco.cochrane.org/Files/ResumesRMS2009/Chutespersagees.pdf

A simple blood-culture bacterial pellet preparation for faster accurate direct bacterial identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing with the VITEK 2 system.

An ammonium chloride procedure was used to prepare a bacterial pellet from positive blood cultures, which was used for direct inoculation of VITEK 2 cards. Correct identification reached 99% for Enterobacteriaceae and 74% for staphylococci. For antibiotic susceptibility testing, very major and major errors were 0.1 and 0.3% for Enterobacteriaceae, and 0.7 and 0.1% for staphylococci, respectively. Thus, bacterial pellets prepared with ammonium chloride allow direct inoculation of VITEK cards with excellent accuracy for Enterobacteriaceae and a lower accuracy for staphylococci.

A simple bypass technique for superior vena cava reconstruction.

Superior vena cava (SVC) clamping can be required during thoracic surgery for SVC replacement or repair. In such cases, bypass techniques can be necessary to avoid hemodynamic instability, cerebral venous hypertension and hypoperfusion. Here, we report a novel and simple SVC bypass technique which does not require full systemic heparinization, specialized cannulation techniques or pumping devices and which can be applied percutaneously in the preoperative phase or intraoperatively. The preoperative shunt consisted in two Swan-Ganz catheters inserted in the jugular and femoral veins and connected by perfusion tubing with a three way stopcock. The intraoperative shunt consisted of a Pruitt(®)-catheter inserted in the left innominate vein and connected to a femoral Swan-Ganz catheter by perfusion tubing. We validated our system in seven patients undergoing SVC reconstruction. We monitored the systemic arterial blood pressures, the heart rate and vasoactive peptide requirements throughout the procedure. We also determined the neurological status and the in-hospital morbidity and mortality for each patient. Using this bypass, SVC clamping caused no hemodynamic instability, no neurological impairments and no in-hospital complications or deaths. This simple temporary SVC bypass procedure is safe and avoids hemodynamic instability and cerebral venous hypertension.