Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Mutualism with sea anemones triggered the adaptive radiation of clownfishes.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Adaptive radiation is the process by which a single ancestral species diversifies into many descendants adapted to exploit a wide range of habitats. The appearance of ecological opportunities, or the colonisation or adaptation to novel ecological resources, has been documented to promote adaptive radiation in many classic examples. Mutualistic interactions allow species to access resources untapped by competitors, but evidence shows that the effect of mutualism on species diversification can greatly vary among mutualistic systems. Here, we test whether the development of obligate mutualism with sea anemones allowed the clownfishes to radiate adaptively across the Indian and western Pacific oceans reef habitats. RESULTS: We show that clownfishes morphological characters are linked with ecological niches associated with the sea anemones. This pattern is consistent with the ecological speciation hypothesis. Furthermore, the clownfishes show an increase in the rate of species diversification as well as rate of morphological evolution compared to their closest relatives without anemone mutualistic associations. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of mutualism on species diversification has only been studied in a limited number of groups. We present a case of adaptive radiation where mutualistic interaction is the likely key innovation, providing new insights into the mechanisms involved in the buildup of biodiversity. Due to a lack of barriers to dispersal, ecological speciation is rare in marine environments. Particular life-history characteristics of clownfishes likely reinforced reproductive isolation between populations, allowing rapid species diversification.

Characterization of the effects of radiation therapy on the tumour microenvironment and their consequences on cancer progression

RESUME La radiothérapie est utilisée avec succès pour le traitement d'un grand nombre de pathologies tumorales (1). Cependant, les récidives post-actiniques sont associées à un risque accru de développer des métastases régionales et à distance (2, 3). La prise en charge de ce type de patients demeure insatisfaisante à l'heure actuelle, principalement parce que les mécanismes physio-pathologiques sous- sous-jacents restent mal compris. Etant donné le rôle primordial du stroma dans la progression tumorale (4) et l'importance des effets de la radiothérapie sur le micro-environnement des tumeurs (5), nous avons émis l'hypothèse que la radiothérapie pouvait engendrer des modifications stromales susceptibles de contribuer à l'émergence d'un phénotype tumoral plus agressif. Nous avons observé que l'exposition préalable d'un environnement tumoral à des radiations ionisantes engendre une inhibition locale et à long terme de l'angiogenèse. Cette inhibition conduit à la création d'un environnement tumoral hypoxique favorisant l'invasion et la métastatisation tumorale. Les mécanismes sous-jacents impliquent l'activation de gènes prométastatiques sous le contrôle du facteur de transcription HIF-1, ainsi que la sélection hypoxique de cellules hautement invasives et métastatiques. Par des analyses de profile d'expression génétique ainsi que par des analyses fonctionnelles, nous avons identifié la protéine matri-cellulaire CYR61 ainsi que ses partenaires d'interaction, les intégrines aVb5/aVb3, comme médiateurs importants de ces effets. De plus, une corrélation significative a également été trouvée entre le niveau d'expression de CYR61 et le taux d'hypoxie dans un grand nombre de carcinomes mammaires chez l'humain. Une association a aussi été observée entre le niveau d'expression de CYR61 et le pronostic de patientes souffrant d'un cancer du sein traité par chimiothérapie adjuvante. Globalement ces résultats identifient l'interaction entre la protéine CYR61 et ses récepteurs aVb5/aVb3 comme un mécanisme important du processus de métastatisation et en font une cible thérapeutique potentielle pour le traitement de patients souffrant d'une récidive tumorale après un traitement de radiothérapie. Finalement, bien que l'inhibition de l'angiogenèse soit locale dans ce cas particulier, nos résultats justifient une surveillance particulière des patients souffrant d'une pathologie tumorale et étant au bénéfice d'un traitement inhibiteur de l'angiogenèse. SUMMARY Radiotherapy is successfully used to treat a large variety of tumours (1 ). However, cancer patients experiencing local recurrent disease after radiation therapy are at increased risk of developing regional and distant metastasis (2, 3). The clinical management of this condition represents a difficult and challenging issue, mainly because the underlying physio-pathological mechanisms remain poorly understood. Given the well established role of the tumour stroma in promoting cancer progression (4) and since radiotherapy is known to persistently alter the tumour microenvironment (5), we hypothesized that ionising radiations may generate stromal modifications contributing to the metastatic spread of relapsing tumours. Here, we report that irradiation of the prospective tumour microenvironment promotes tumour invasion and metastasis through a mechanism of local and sustained impairment of angiogenesis leading to both HIF-1 dependent activation of pro-metastatic genes and hypoxia-mediated selection of highly metastatic tumour cell variants. Through gene expression profiling and functional experiments, we identified the matricellular signalling protein CYR61 and its interaction partners aVb5/ aVb3 integrins as critical mediators of these effects. Furthermore, we found a significant correlation between CYR61 expression and the hypoxic status of a large number of human mammary carcinomas. A positive correlation between increased levels of CYR61 expression and shorter relapse free survival was also identified in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Together, these results identify CYR61 and aVb5/aVb3 integrins as critical mediators of metastasis and potential therapeutic targets to improve outcome in patients with post-radiation tumour recurrences. Finally, although inhibition of angiogenesis is local in this setting, our data warrant close monitoring of tumour progression in patients under anti-angiogenic therapy.

Late Onset Cystoid Macular Oedema Following Surgery for Radiation Induced Cataract in Patient With Retinoblastoma

Purpose: Cystoid macular oedema (CMO) is a very rare condition following cataract surgery in paediatric population. Nevertheless, we report a case series of patients with radiation induced cataract after retinoblastoma (Rb) treatment that underwent cataract surgery and developed subsequently late onset CMO. Methods: Between January 1984 and December 2009, 25 consecutive eyes (25 patients) with Rb presented with radiation induced cataract surgery at the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital. Sixteen eyes (16 patients) had prior radiation induced retinopathy and maculopathy (IRM). Out of these, 3 eyes (3 patients) developed CMO after cataract surgery. Results: One eye had Rb stage B, and 2 eyes had stage D International classification. All of them developed IRM following brachytherapy and/or external beam irradiation. Patients underwent phako-aspiration and in bag intraocular lens implantation after IRM had resolved. Mean age at cataract surgery was 10.7 ± 2.8 (SEM) (range 5-14) years old. Mean time between resolution of IRM and cataract surgery was 76.0 ± 27.2 (SEM) (range 24-116) months. Mean time of onset CMO after cataract surgery was 81.0 ± 34.4 (SEM) (range 13-124) months. There was no other underlying vascular or tractional factor for CMO development. All of them were treated with a combination of oral carbonic anhydrase inhibitor, topical steroid and topical non-steroid. Mean macular thickness pre-, during-, and post CMO were 134.0 ± 10.3, 298.0 ± 37.1, and 154.0 ± 4.0 (SEM) µm, respectively. Mean best corrected visual acuity pre-, during-, and post CMO were 0.31 ± 0.19, 0.46 ± 0.12, and 0.34 ± 0.18 (SEM) LogMAR, respectively. Mean time for CMO reabsorption was 17.0 ± 9.8 (SEM) months. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, CMO following paediatric cataract surgery is a very uncommon condition. Moreover, late onset CMO after phako-aspiration for radiation induced cataract in Rb patients has never been described. It is a rare complication but can be treated successfully.

EORTC-ROG expert opinion: radiotherapy volume and treatment guidelines for neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction and the stomach.

PURPOSE: The Gastro-Intestinal Working Party of the EORTC Radiation Oncology Group (GIWP-ROG) developed guidelines for target volume definition in neoadjuvant radiation of adenocarcinomas of the gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) and the stomach. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Guidelines about the definition of the clinical target volume (CTV) are based on a systematic literature review of the location and frequency of local recurrences and lymph node involvement in adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach. Therefore, MEDLINE was searched up to August 2008. Guidelines concerning prescription, planning and treatment delivery are based on a consensus between the members of the GIWP-ROG. RESULTS: In order to support a curative resection of GEJ and gastric cancer, an individualized preoperative treatment volume based on tumour location has to include the primary tumour and the draining regional lymph nodes area. Therefore we recommend to use the 2nd English Edition of the Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma of the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association which developed the concept of assigning tumours of the GEJ and the stomach to anatomically defined sub-sites corresponding respectively to a distinct lymphatic spread pattern. CONCLUSION: The GIWP-ROG defined guidelines for preoperative irradiation of adenocarcinomas of the GEJ and the stomach to reduce variability in the framework of future clinical trials.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Whole brain radiotherapy with a conformational external beam radiation boost for lung cancer patients with 1-3 brain metastasis: a multi institutional study.

BACKGROUND: To determine the outcome of patients with brain metastasis (BM) from lung cancer treated with an external beam radiotherapy boost (RTB) after whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). METHODS: A total of 53 BM patients with lung cancer were treated sequentially with WBRT and RTB between 1996 and 2008 according to our institutional protocol. Mean age was 58.8 years. The median KPS was 90. Median recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and graded prognostic assessment (GPA) grouping were 2 and 2.5, respectively. Surgery was performed on 38 (71%) patients. The median number of BM was 1 (range, 1-3). Median WBRT and RTB combined dose was 39 Gy (range, 37.5-54). Median follow-up was 12.0 months. RESULTS: During the period of follow-up, 37 (70%) patients died. The median overall survival (OS) was 14.5 months. Only 13 patients failed in the brain. The majority of patients (n = 29) failed distantly. The 1-year OS, -local control, extracranial failure rates were 61.2%, 75.2% and 60.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, improved OS was found to be significantly associated with total dose (< or = 39 Gy vs. > 39 Gy; p < 0.01), age < 65 (p < 0.01), absence of extracranial metastasis (p < 0.01), GPA > or = 2.5 (p = 0.01), KPS > or = 90 (p = 0.01), and RPA < 2 (p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, total dose (p < 0.01) and the absence of extracranial metastasis (p = 0.03) retained statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of lung cancer patients treated with WBRT and RTB progressed extracranially. There might be a subgroup of younger patients with good performance status and no extracranial disease who may benefit from dose escalation after WBRT to the metastatic site.

The Effect of Amifostine on Acute and Late Radiation Side Effects in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Objective: We aimed to investigate the effect of amifostine on acute and late side effects, and its tolerability in head and neck cancer patients treated with radiotherapy (RT). Material and Methods: The study included 87 patients with primary head and neck cancers and cervical lymph node metastases from unknown primary cancers treated with RT alone or combined with chemotherapy (CT). Forty-one patients (47%) received amifostine combined with RT (ART group) and 46 patients (52%) received RT without amifostine (RT group). The patients were evaluated every week during the treatment and at month 1 and 2 after the completion of RT for acute side effects and month 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 after the treatment for late side effects according to SOMA/LENT scale. Amifostine was administered prior to RT, along with anti-emetic prophylaxis. The two groups were compared with the Student's t and Mann-Whitney U and Chi-square tests. Results: The ART group had significantly less toxicity (grade! 1 mucositis, grade 2 fibrosis) than patients in the RT group (p=0.001, p=0.03, respectively). At week 3 of RT grade 2 mucositis developed in two patients (5%) in the ART group and 10 patients (22%) in the RT group (p=0.02). The protective effect of amifostine on skin reactions developed at week 4 of RT (p=0.05). Grade 3 xerostomia at 9, 12, and 15 months of follow-up (p=0.02, p=0.02, and p=0.02, respectively), grade 2 xerostomia at 18 and 24 months (p=0.02 and p=0.01, respectively) and fibrosis at 15, 18 and 24 months (p=0.05, p=0.02 and p=0.02, respectively) decreased markedly in the ART group compared with the RT group. Emesis was the most common adverse effect of amifostine. Conclusion: Daily administration of amifostine during RT was effective in avoiding late grade 2-3 xerostomia, as well as grade 2 fibrosis.

Taking "Galton's problem" Seriously : Towards a Theory of Policy Diffusion

This article builds on the recent policy diffusion literature and attempts to overcome one of its major problems, namely the lack of a coherent theoretical framework. The literature defines policy diffusion as a process where policy choices are interdependent, and identifies several diffusion mechanisms that specify the link between the policy choices of the various actors. As these mechanisms are grounded in different theories, theoretical accounts of diffusion currently have little internal coherence. In this article we put forward an expected-utility model of policy change that is able to subsume all the diffusion mechanisms. We argue that the expected utility of a policy depends on both its effectiveness and the payoffs it yields, and we show that the various diffusion mechanisms operate by altering these two parameters. Each mechanism affects one of the two parameters, and does so in distinct ways. To account for aggregate patterns of diffusion, we embed our model in a simple threshold model of diffusion. Given the high complexity of the process that results, strong analytical conclusions on aggregate patterns cannot be drawn without more extensive analysis which is beyond the scope of this article. However, preliminary considerations indicate that a wide range of diffusion processes may exist and that convergence is only one possible outcome.

Radiothérapie externe accélérée postopératoire des carcinomes épidermoïdes localement évolués de la sphère ORL: étude prospective de phase II [Prospective study of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck]

PURPOSE: To assess the feasibility and efficacy of accelerated postoperative radiation therapy (RT) in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between December 1997 and July 2001, 68 patients (male to female ratio: 52/16; median age: 60-years (range: 43-81) with pT1-pT4 and/or pN0-pN3 SCCHN (24 oropharynx, 19 oral cavity, 13 hypopharynx, 5 larynx, 3 unknown primary, 2 maxillary sinus, and 2 salivary gland) were included in this prospective study. Postoperative RT was indicated because extracapsular infiltration (ECI) was observed in 20 (29%), positive surgical margins (PSM) in 20 (29%) or both in 23 patients (34%). Treatment consisted of external beam RT 66 Gy in 5 weeks and 3 days. Median follow-up was 15 months. RESULTS: According to CTC 2.0, acute morbidity was acceptable: grade 3 mucositis was observed in 15 (22%) patients, grade 3 dysphagia in 19 (28%) patients, grade 3 skin erythema in 21 (31%) patients with a median weight loss of 3.1 kg (range: 0-16). No grade 4 toxicity was observed. Median time to relapse was 13 months; we observed only three (4%) local and four (6%) regional relapses, whereas eight (12%) patients developed distant metastases without any evidence of locoregional recurrence. The 2 years overall-, disease-free survival, and actuarial locoregional control rates were 85, 73 and 83% respectively. CONCLUSION: The reduction of the overall treatment time using postoperative accelerated RT with weekly concomitant boost (six fractions per week) is feasible with local control rates comparable to that of published data. Acute RT-related morbidity is acceptable.