165 resultados para probability of occurrence


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BACKGROUND: Solid-organ transplant recipients are at high risk for the development of herpes zoster. Epidemiologic data in lung transplant recipients are lacking. We determined the incidence and clinical characteristics of herpes zoster, and the risk factors for developing herpes zoster, after lung transplantation. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed all adult (>18 years old) lung transplants performed at our institution between January 2001 and December 2005. Clinical characteristics of herpes zoster and potential risk factors associated with herpes zoster were assessed. RESULTS: Two hundred thirty-nine lung transplant recipients were included in the analysis. Median time of follow-up was 722 days (range 18 to 1,943 days). Thirty-five episodes of herpes zoster occurred in 29 patients, with a calculated incidence of 55.1 cases per 1,000 person-years of follow-up. The cumulative probability of herpes zoster was 5.8% at 1 year, 18.1% at 3 years and 20.2% at 5 years post-transplant. Only 2 of the 35 (5.7%) patients had disseminated cutaneous infection and none had visceral involvement. Recurrence of herpes zoster was seen in 13.8% of patients. Post-herpetic neuralgia was detected in 20% of cases. Anti-viral prophylaxis, primarily for cytomegalovirus (CMV), was protective against herpes zoster. No significant epidemiologic risk factors associated with herpes zoster could be identified. CONCLUSIONS: Herpes zoster is a common complication after lung transplantation with a peak incidence at between 1 and 4 years post-transplant. Preventive strategies would be beneficial for this population.

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Background: About 80% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) require bowel resection and up to 65% will undergo a second resection within 10 years. This study reports clinical risk factors for resection surgery (RS) and repeat RS. Methods: Retrospective cohort study, using data from patients included in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort. Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate rates of initial and repeated RS. Results: Out of 1,138 CD cohort patients, 417 (36.6%) had already undergone RS at the time of inclusion. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the probability of being free of RS was 65% after 10 years, 42% after 20 years, and 23% after 40 years. Perianal involvement (PA) did not modify this probability to a significant extent. The main adjusted risk factors for RS were smoking at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33; p = 0.006), stricturing with vs. without PA (HR = 4.91 vs. 4.11; p < 0.001) or penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.53 vs. 4.58; p < 0.001). The risk factor for repeat RS was penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.17 vs. 2.24; p < 0.05). Conclusion: The risk of RS was confirmed to be very high for CD in our cohort. Smoking status at diagnosis, but mostly penetrating and stricturing diseases increase the risk of RS.

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BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is often initiated at a young age as well as other risky behaviors such as alcohol drinking, cannabis and other illicit drugs use. Some studies suggest that cigarette smoking may have an influence on other risky behaviors but little is known about the chronology of occurrence of those different habits. The aim of this study was to assess, by young men, what were the other risky behaviors associated with cigarette smoking and the joint prevalence and chronology of occurrence of those risky behaviors. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of a population-based census of 3526 young men attending the recruitment for the Swiss army, aged between 17 and 25 years old (mean age: 19 years old), who filled a self reported questionnaire about their alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis and other illicit drugs habits. Actual smoking was defined as either regular smoking (¡Ý1 cigarette/day, on every day) or occasional smoking, binge drinking as six or more drinks at least twice a month, at risk drinking as 21 drinks or more per week, recent cannabis use as cannabis consumption at least once during the last month, and use of illicit drugs as consumption once or more of illicit drugs other than cannabis. Age at begin was defined as age at first use of cannabis or cigarette smoking. RESULTS: In this population of young men, the prevalence of actual smoking was 51.2% (36.5% regular smoking, 14.6% occasionnal smoking). Two third of participamnts (60.1%) declared that they ever used cannabis, 25.2% reported a recent use of cannabis. 53.8% of participants had a risky alcohol consumption considered as either binge or at risk drinking. Cigarette smoking was significantly associated with recent cannabis use (Odds Ratio (OR): 3.85, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.10- 4.77), binge drinking (OR: 3.48, 95% CI: 3.03-4.00), at risk alcohol drinking (OR: 4.04, 95% CI: 3.12-5.24), and ever use of illicit drugs (OR: 4.34, 95% CI: 3.54-5.31). In a multivariate logistic regression, odds ratios for smoking were increased for cannabis users (OR 3.10,, 95% CI: 2.48-3.88), binge drinkers (OR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.44-2.17), at risk alcohol drinkers (OR 2.26, 95% CI: 1.52-3.36) and ever users of illicit drugs (OR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.20-2.03). The majority of young men (57.3%) initiated smoking before cannabis and mean age at onset was 13.4 years old, whereas only 11.1% began to use cannabis before smoking cigarettes and mean age at onset was slightly older (14.4 years old). 31.6% started both cannabis and tobacco at the same age (15 years old). About a third of participants (30.5%) did have a cluster of risky behaviours (smoking, at risk drinking, cannabis use) and 11.0% did cumulate smoking, drinking, cannabis and ever use of illegal drugs. More than half of the smokers (59.6%) did cumulate cannabis use and at risk alcohol drinking whereas only 18.5% of non-smokers did. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of young smokers initiated their risky behaviors by first smoking and then by other psychoactive drugs. Smokers have an increased risk to present other risky behaviors such as cannabis use, at risk alcohol consumtion and illicit drug use compared to nonsmokers. Prevention by young male adults should focus on smoking and also integrate interventions on other risky behaviors.

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The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

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The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Rockfall propagation areas can be determined using a simple geometric rule known as shadow angle or energy line method based on a simple Coulomb frictional model implemented in the CONEFALL computer program. Runout zones are estimated from a digital terrain model (DTM) and a grid file containing the cells representing rockfall potential source areas. The cells of the DTM that are lowest in altitude and located within a cone centered on a rockfall source cell belong to the potential propagation area associated with that grid cell. In addition, the CONEFALL method allows estimation of mean and maximum velocities and energies of blocks in the rockfall propagation areas. Previous studies indicate that the slope angle cone ranges from 27° to 37° depending on the assumptions made, i.e. slope morphology, probability of reaching a point, maximum run-out, field observations. Different solutions based on previous work and an example of an actual rockfall event are presented here.

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Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of improved asthma control under conditions of everyday practice in Switzerland. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A subgroup of 1380 patients with initially inadequately controlled asthma was defined from a cohort of 1893 asthmatic patients (mean age 45.3 + or - 19.2 years) recruited by 281 office-based physicians who participated in a previously-conducted asthma control survey in Switzerland. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify predictors of improved asthma control, defined as an absolute decrease of 0.5 points or more in the Asthma Control Questionnaire between the baseline (V1) and follow-up visit (V2). RESULTS: Asthma control between V1 and V2 improved in 85.7%. Add-on treatment with montelukast was reported in 82.9% of the patients. Patients with worse asthma control at V1 and patients with good self-reported adherence to therapy had significantly higher chances of improved asthma control (OR = 1.24 and 1.73, 95% CI 1.18-1.29 and 1.20-2.50, respectively). Compared to adding montelukast and continuing the same inhaled corticosteroid/fixed combination (ICS/FC) dose, the addition of montelukast to an increased ICS/FC dose yielded a 4 times higher chance of improved asthma control (OR = 3.84, 95% CI 1.58-9.29). Significantly, withholding montelukast halved the probability of achieving improved asthma control (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33-078). The probability of improved asthma control was almost 5 times lower among patients in whom FEV(1) was measured compared to those in whom it was not (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.09-0.55). Patients with severe persistent asthma also had a significantly lower probability of improved control (OR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.07-0.32), as did older patients (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99). Subgroup analyses which excluded patients whose asthma may have been misdiagnosed and might in reality have been chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed comparable results. CONCLUSIONS: Under conditions of everyday clinical practice, the addition of montelukast to ICS/FC and good adherence to therapy increased the likelihood of achieving better asthma control at the follow-up visit, while older age and more severe asthma significantly decreased it.

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Introduction: Pain and beliefs have an influence on the patient's course in rehabilitation, pain causes fears and fears influence pain perception. The aim of this study is to understand pain and beliefs evolutions during rehabilitation taking into account of bio-psycho-social complexity.Patients and methods: 631 consecutive patients admitted in rehabilitation after a musculoskeletal traumatism were included and assessed at admission and at discharge. Pain was measured by VAS (Visual Analogical Scale), bio-psycho-social complexity by Intermed scale, and beliefs by judgement on Lickert scales. Four kinds of beliefs were evaluated: fear of a severe origin of pain, fear of movement, fear of pain and feeling of distress (loss of control). The association between the changes in pain and beliefs during the hospitalization was assessed by linear regressions.Results: After adjustment for gender, age, education and native language, patients with a decrease in pain during rehabilitation have higher probability of decreasing their fears. For the distress feeling, this relationship is weaker among bio-psycho-socially complex patients (odds-ratio 1.22 for each decreasing of 10mm/100 VAS) than among non-complex patients (OR 1.47). Patients with a pain decrease of 30% or more during hospitalization have higher probability of seeing their fears decrease, this relationship being stronger in complex patient for fear of a severe origin of pain.Discussion: The relationships between evolution of pain and beliefs move in the same direction. The higher a patient feels pain, the less they could be able to modify their dysfunctional beliefs. When the pain diminishes of 30% or more, the probability to challenge the beliefs is increased. The prognostic with regard to feeling of distress and fear of a severe origin of pain, is worse among bio-psycho-socially complex patients.

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BACKGROUND: The timing of cardiac surgery after stroke in infective endocarditis (IE) remains controversial. We examined the relationship between the timing of surgery after stroke and the incidence of in-hospital and 1-year mortalities. METHODS: Data were obtained from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study of 4794 patients with definite IE who were admitted to 64 centers from June 2000 through December 2006. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate the impact of early surgery on hospital and 1-year mortality after adjustments for other significant covariates. RESULTS: Of the 857 patients with IE complicated by ischemic stroke syndromes, 198 who underwent valve replacement surgery poststroke were available for analysis. Overall, 58 (29.3%) patients underwent early surgical treatment vs 140 (70.7%) patients who underwent late surgical treatment. After adjustment for other risk factors, early surgery was not significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality rates (odds ratio, 2.308; 95% confidence interval [CI], .942-5.652). Overall, probability of death after 1-year follow-up did not differ between 2 treatment groups (27.1% in early surgery and 19.2% in late surgery group, P = .328; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.138; 95% CI, .802-1.650). CONCLUSIONS: There is no apparent survival benefit in delaying surgery when indicated in IE patients after ischemic stroke. Further observational analyses that include detailed pre- and postoperative clinical neurologic findings and advanced imaging data (eg, ischemic stroke size), may allow for more refined recommendations on the optimal timing of valvular surgery in patients with IE and recent stroke syndromes.

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Aims: A rapid and simple HPLC-MS method was developed for the simultaneousdetermination of antidementia drugs, including donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmineand its major metabolite NAP 226 - 90, and memantine, for TherapeuticDrug Monitoring (TDM). In the elderly population treated with antidementiadrugs, the presence of several comorbidities, drug interactions resulting frompolypharmacy, and variations in drug metabolism and elimination, are possiblefactors leading to the observed high interindividual variability in plasma levels.Although evidence for the benefit of TDM for antidementia drugs still remains tobe demonstrated, an individually adapted dosage through TDM might contributeto minimize the risk of adverse reactions and to increase the probability of efficienttherapeutic response. Methods: A solid-phase extraction procedure with amixed-mode cation exchange sorbent was used to isolate the drugs from 0.5 mL ofplasma. The compounds were analyzed on a reverse-phase column with a gradientelution consisting of an ammonium acetate buffer at pH 9.3 and acetonitrile anddetected by mass spectrometry in the single ion monitoring mode. Isotope-labeledinternal standards were used for quantification where possible. The validatedmethod was used to measure the plasma levels of antidementia drugs in 300patients treated with these drugs. Results: The method was validated accordingto international standards of validation, including the assessment of the trueness(-8 - 11 %), the imprecision (repeatability: 1-5%, intermediate imprecision:2 - 9 %), selectivity and matrix effects variability (less than 6 %). Furthermore,short and long-term stability of the analytes in plasma was ascertained. Themethod proved to be robust in the calibrated ranges of 1 - 300 ng/mL for rivastigmineand memantine and 2 - 300 mg/mL for donepezil, galantamine and NAP226 - 90. We recently published a full description of the method (1). We found ahigh interindividual variability in plasma levels of these drugs in a study populationof 300 patients. The plasma level measurements, with some preliminaryclinical and pharmacogenetic results, will be presented. Conclusion: A simpleLC-MS method was developed for plasma level determination of antidementiadrugs which was successfully used in a clinical study with 300 patients.

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A total of 357 house mice (Mus domesticus) from 83 localities uniformly distributed throughout Switzerland were screened for the presence of a homogenously staining region (HSR) on chromosome 1. Altogether 47 mice from 11 localities were HSR/+ or HSR/HSR. One sample of 11 individuals all had an HSR/HSR karyotype. Almost all mice with the variant were collected from the Rhone valley (HSR frequency: 61%) and Val Bregaglia (HSR frequency: 81%). For samples from most of the area of Switzerland, the HSR was absent. There was no strong association between the geographic distribution of the HSR and the areas of occurrence of metacentrics. However, at Chiggiogna the HSR was found on Rb (1.3). Possible explanations for the HSR polymorphism are discussed.

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BACKGROUND: Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) related to multiple sclerosis (MS) is more difficult to manage pharmacologically and surgically. OBJECTIVE: This article aims to evaluate the safety and efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) in this special group of patients. METHODS: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 43 cases with more than 1 year of follow-up were operated with GKS for TN related to MS and prospectively evaluated in the Timone University Hospital, Marseille, France. Radiosurgery using the Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed. A single 4-mm isocenter was positioned at a median distance of 8 mm (range 5.7-14.7) anterior to the emergence of the nerve. A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 75-90) was delivered. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 53.8 months (12-157.1). Thirty-nine patients (90.7%) were initially pain free. Their actuarial probability of remaining pain free without medication at 6 months, 1, 3, 5 and 10 years was 87.2, 71.8, 43.1, 38.3 and 20.5%, respectively, and remained stable till 12 years. The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 6 months, 1 and 2 years was 11.5, 11.5 and 16%, and remained stable till 12 years. CONCLUSIONS: GKS proved safe and effective in this special group of patients.

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Object: The authors sought to establish whether the safety-efficacy of Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS) as a second treatment for intractable trigeminal neuralgia (ITN) are influenced by prior microvascular decompression (MVD) which remains, for some of the authors, the reference technique. Methods: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients have been operated with GKRS for ITN and prospectively evaluated in Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. Among these, 54 patients had a previous MVD history. Radiosurgery using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed relying on both MR and CT targeting. A single 4 mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range 3.9- 11.9) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve (retrogasserian target). A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. Are further analyzed only 45 patients with previous MVD and a follow-up longer than one year (the patients with megadolichobasilar artery compression and multiple sclerosis were excluded). Results: The median age in this series was 56.75 years (range 28.09-82.39). The median follow-up period was 39.48 months (range 14.10-144.65). All the patients had a past history of surgery, with at least one previous failed MVD, but also a radiofrequency lesion (RFL) in 16 (35.6%) patients, balloon microcompression in 7 (15.6%) patients and glycerol rhizotomy in 1 case (2.2%). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free in a median time of 14 days (range 0, 180). Patients from this group had less probability of being pain free compared to our global population of essential trigeminal neuralgia without previous MVD history (p=0.010, hazard ratio of 0.64). Their probability of remaining pain free at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1% and 44.3%, respectively. Twelve patients (34.3%) initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 31.21 months (range 3.40-89.93). The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 8 months (range 8-8). Conclusions: Retrogasserian GKRS proofed to be safe and effective on the long-term basis even after failed previous MVD. Even if the initial result of pain free was of only 77.8%, the toxicity was low with only 9.1% hypoesthesia. No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. The probability of maintaining pain relief in long-term was of 44.3% at 10 years.

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Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.