Prospective study of insulin-like growth factor-I, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3, genetic variants in the IGF1 and IGFBP3 genes and risk of coronary artery disease.

Although experimental studies have suggested that insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and its binding protein IGFBP-3 might have a role in the aetiology of coronary artery disease (CAD), the relevance of circulating IGFs and their binding proteins in the development of CAD in human populations is unclear. We conducted a nested case-control study, with a mean follow-up of six years, within the EPIC-Norfolk cohort to assess the association between circulating levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 and risk of CAD in up to 1,013 cases and 2,055 controls matched for age, sex and study enrolment date. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, we found no association between circulating levels of IGF-I or IGFBP-3 and risk of CAD (odds ratio: 0.98 (95% Cl 0.90-1.06) per 1 SD increase in circulating IGF-I; odds ratio: 1.02 (95% Cl 0.94-1.12) for IGFBP-3). We examined associations between tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) at the IGF1 and IGFBP3 loci and circulating IGF-I and IGFBP-3 levels in up to 1,133 cases and 2,223 controls and identified three tSNPs (rs1520220, rs3730204, rs2132571) that showed independent association with either circulating IGF-I or IGFBP-3 levels. In an assessment of 31 SNPs spanning the IGF1 or IGFBP3 loci, none were associated with risk of CAD in a meta-analysis that included EPIC-Norfolk and eight additional studies comprising up to 9,319 cases and 19,964 controls. Our results indicate that IGF-I and IGFBP-3 are unlikely to be importantly involved in the aetiology of CAD in human populations.

Measuring the relative effect of factors affecting species distribution model predictions

1. Species distribution models are increasingly used to address conservation questions, so their predictive capacity requires careful evaluation. Previous studies have shown how individual factors used in model construction can affect prediction. Although some factors probably have negligible effects compared to others, their relative effects are largely unknown. 2. We introduce a general "virtual ecologist" framework to study the relative importance of factors involved in the construction of species distribution models. 3. We illustrate the framework by examining the relative importance of five key factors-a missing covariate, spatial autocorrelation due to a dispersal process in presences/absences, sample size, sampling design and modeling technique-in a real study framework based on plants in a mountain landscape at regional scale, and show that, for the parameter values considered here, most of the variation in prediction accuracy is due to sample size and modeling technique. Contrary to repeatedly reported concerns, spatial autocorrelation has only comparatively small effects. 4. This study shows the importance of using a nested statistical framework to evaluate the relative effects of factors that may affect species distribution models.

Problems of allometric scaling analysis: examples from mammalian reproductive biology.

Biological scaling analyses employing the widely used bivariate allometric model are beset by at least four interacting problems: (1) choice of an appropriate best-fit line with due attention to the influence of outliers; (2) objective recognition of divergent subsets in the data (allometric grades); (3) potential restrictions on statistical independence resulting from phylogenetic inertia; and (4) the need for extreme caution in inferring causation from correlation. A new non-parametric line-fitting technique has been developed that eliminates requirements for normality of distribution, greatly reduces the influence of outliers and permits objective recognition of grade shifts in substantial datasets. This technique is applied in scaling analyses of mammalian gestation periods and of neonatal body mass in primates. These analyses feed into a re-examination, conducted with partial correlation analysis, of the maternal energy hypothesis relating to mammalian brain evolution, which suggests links between body size and brain size in neonates and adults, gestation period and basal metabolic rate. Much has been made of the potential problem of phylogenetic inertia as a confounding factor in scaling analyses. However, this problem may be less severe than suspected earlier because nested analyses of variance conducted on residual variation (rather than on raw values) reveals that there is considerable variance at low taxonomic levels. In fact, limited divergence in body size between closely related species is one of the prime examples of phylogenetic inertia. One common approach to eliminating perceived problems of phylogenetic inertia in allometric analyses has been calculation of 'independent contrast values'. It is demonstrated that the reasoning behind this approach is flawed in several ways. Calculation of contrast values for closely related species of similar body size is, in fact, highly questionable, particularly when there are major deviations from the best-fit line for the scaling relationship under scrutiny.

Statins are associated with decreased mortality risk after status epilepticus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statins display anti-inflammatory and anti-epileptogenic properties in animal models, and may reduce the epilepsy risk in elderly humans; however, a possible modulating role on outcome in patients with status epilepticus (SE) has not been assessed. METHODS: This cohort study was based on a prospective registry including all consecutive adults with incident SE treated in our center between April 2006 and September 2012. SE outcome was categorized at hospital discharge into 'return to baseline', 'new disability' and 'mortality'. The role of potential predictors, including statins treatment on admission, was evaluated using a multinomial logistic regression model. RESULTS: Amongst 427 patients identified, information on statins was available in 413 (97%). Mean age was 60.9 (±17.8) years; 201 (49%) were women; 211 (51%) had a potentially fatal SE etiology; and 191 (46%) experienced generalized-convulsive or non-convulsive SE in coma. Statins (simvastatin, atorvastatin or pravastatin) were prescribed prior to admission in 76 (18%) subjects, mostly elderly. Whilst 208 (50.4%) patients returned to baseline, 58 (14%) died. After adjustment for established SE outcome predictors (age, etiology, SE severity score), statins correlated significantly with lower mortality (relative risk ratio 0.38, P = 0.046). CONCLUSION: This study suggests for the first time that exposure to statins before an SE episode is related to its outcome, involving a possible anti-epileptogenic role. Other studies are needed to confirm this intriguing finding.

Status epilepticus: impact of therapeutic coma on outcome.

OBJECTIVES: Therapeutic coma is advocated in guidelines for management of refractory status epilepticus; this is, however, based on weak evidence. We here address the specific impact of therapeutic coma on status epilepticus outcome. DESIGN: Retrospective assessment of a prospectively collected cohort. SETTING: Academic hospital. PATIENTS: Consecutive adults with incident status epilepticus lasting greater than or equal to 30 minutes, admitted between 2006 and 2013. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We recorded prospectively demographics, clinical status epilepticus features, treatment, and outcome at discharge and retrospectively medical comorbidities, hospital stay, and infectious complications. Associations between potential predictors and clinical outcome were analyzed using multinomial logistic regressions. Of 467 patients with incident status epilepticus, 238 returned to baseline (51.1%), 162 had new disability (34.6%), and 67 died (14.3%); 50 subjects (10.7%) were managed with therapeutic coma. Therapeutic coma was associated with poorer outcome in the whole cohort (relative risk ratio for new disability, 6.86; 95% CI, 2.84-16.56; for mortality, 9.10; 95% CI, 3.17-26.16); the effect was more important in patients with complex partial compared with generalized convulsive or nonconvulsive status epilepticus in coma. Prevalence of infections was higher (odds ratio, 3.81; 95% CI, 1.66-8.75), and median hospital stay in patients discharged alive was longer (16 d [range, 2-240 d] vs 9 d [range, 1-57 d]; p < 0.001) in subjects managed with therapeutic coma. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides class III evidence that therapeutic coma is associated with poorer outcome after status epilepticus; furthermore, it portends higher infection rates and longer hospitalizations. These data suggest caution in the straightforward use of this approach, especially in patients with complex partial status epilepticus.

Reasons to use e-cigarettes and associations with other substances among adolescents in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this research were to describe the main reason(s) why adolescents use electronic cigarettes, to assess how e-cigarette experimenters and users differ based on personal characteristics, and to determine whether its use is associated with the use of other substances among a representative sample of youths in Switzerland. METHODS: A representative sample of 621 youths (308 females) was divided into never users (n=353), experimenters (Only once, n=120) and users (Several times, n=148) of e-cigarettes. Groups were compared on socio-demographic data and current smoking, alcohol misuse and cannabis use. Reasons for e-cigarette use were compared between experimenters and users. A multinomial regression was performed using never users as the reference category. RESULTS: Forty-three percent had ever tried e-cigarettes, and the main reason was curiosity. Compared to never users, experimenters were more likely to be out of school (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR]: 2.68) and to misuse alcohol (RRR: 2.08), while users were more likely to be male (RRR: 2.75), to be vocational students (RRR: 2.30) or out of school (RRR: 3.48) and to use any of the studied substances (tobacco, RRR: 5.26; alcohol misuse, RRR: 2.71; cannabis use, RRR: 30.2). CONCLUSIONS: Although often still part of adolescent experimentation, e-cigarettes are becoming increasingly popular among adolescents and they should become part of health providers' standard substance use screening. As health providers (and especially paediatricians) do not seem to have high levels of knowledge and, consequently, little comfort in discussing e-cigarettes, training in this domain should be available to them.

Quest for Orthologs Entails Quest for Tree of Life: In Search of the Gene Stream.

Quest for Orthologs (QfO) is a community effort with the goal to improve and benchmark orthology predictions. As quality assessment assumes prior knowledge on species phylogenies, we investigated the congruency between existing species trees by comparing the relationships of 147 QfO reference organisms from six Tree of Life (ToL)/species tree projects: The National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) taxonomy, Opentree of Life, the sequenced species/species ToL, the 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) database, and trees published by Ciccarelli et al. (Ciccarelli FD, et al. 2006. Toward automatic reconstruction of a highly resolved tree of life. Science 311:1283-1287) and by Huerta-Cepas et al. (Huerta-Cepas J, Marcet-Houben M, Gabaldon T. 2014. A nested phylogenetic reconstruction approach provides scalable resolution in the eukaryotic Tree Of Life. PeerJ PrePrints 2:223) Our study reveals that each species tree suggests a different phylogeny: 87 of the 146 (60%) possible splits of a dichotomous and rooted tree are congruent, while all other splits are incongruent in at least one of the species trees. Topological differences are observed not only at deep speciation events, but also within younger clades, such as Hominidae, Rodentia, Laurasiatheria, or rosids. The evolutionary relationships of 27 archaea and bacteria are highly inconsistent. By assessing 458,108 gene trees from 65 genomes, we show that consistent species topologies are more often supported by gene phylogenies than contradicting ones. The largest concordant species tree includes 77 of the QfO reference organisms at the most. Results are summarized in the form of a consensus ToL (http://swisstree.vital-it.ch/species_tree) that can serve different benchmarking purposes.

Circulating FABP4 Is a prognostic biomarker in patients with acute coronary syndrome but not in asymptomatic individuals.

OBJECTIVE: Blood-borne biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic plaque burden have great potential to improve clinical management of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome (ACS). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using data integration from gene expression profiling of coronary thrombi versus peripheral blood mononuclear cells and proteomic analysis of atherosclerotic plaque-derived secretomes versus healthy tissue secretomes, we identified fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4) as a biomarker candidate for coronary artery disease. Its diagnostic and prognostic performance was validated in 3 different clinical settings: (1) in a cross-sectional cohort of patients with stable coronary artery disease, ACS, and healthy individuals (n=820), (2) in a nested case-control cohort of patients with ACS with 30-day follow-up (n=200), and (3) in a population-based nested case-control cohort of asymptomatic individuals with 5-year follow-up (n=414). Circulating FABP4 was marginally higher in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (24.9 ng/mL) compared with controls (23.4 ng/mL; P=0.01). However, elevated FABP4 was associated with adverse secondary cerebrovascular or cardiovascular events during 30-day follow-up after index ACS, independent of age, sex, renal function, and body mass index (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.5; P=0.02). Circulating FABP4 predicted adverse events with similar prognostic performance as the GRACE in-hospital risk score or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Finally, no significant difference between baseline FABP4 was found in asymptomatic individuals with or without coronary events during 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating FABP4 may prove useful as a prognostic biomarker in risk stratification of patients with ACS.

Associations between fruit and vegetable consumption and psychological distress: results from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies observed associations of various aspects of diet with mental health, but little is known about the relationship between following the 5-a-day recommendation for fruit and vegetables consumption and mental health. Thus, we examined the associations of the Swiss daily recommended fruit and vegetable intake with psychological distress. METHODS: Data from 20,220 individuals aged 15+ years from the 2012 Swiss Health Survey were analyzed. The recommended portions of fruit and vegetables per day were defined as 5-a-day (at least 2 portions of fruit and 3 of vegetables). The outcome was perceived psychological distress over the previous 4 weeks (measured by the 5-item mental health index [MHI-5]). High distress (MHI-5 score ≤ 52), moderate distress (MHI-5 > 52 and ≤ 72) and low distress (MHI-5 > 72 and ≤ 100) were differentiated and multinomial logistic regression analyses adjusted for known confounding factors were performed. RESULTS: The 5-a-day recommendation was met by 11.6 % of the participants with low distress, 9.3 % of those with moderate distress, and 6.2 % of those with high distress. Consumers fulfilling the 5-a-day recommendation had lower odds of being highly or moderately distressed than individuals consuming less fruit and vegetables (moderate vs. low distress: OR = 0.82, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.97; high vs. low distress: OR = 0.55, 95 % CI 0.41-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: Daily intake of 5 servings of fruit and vegetable was associated with lower psychological distress. Longitudinal studies are needed to further determine the causal nature of this relationship.

Obese, smoker, and obese smoker : is there a general lifestyle gradient?

Aim: Obesity and smoking are major CVD risk factors and may be associated with other unfavourable lifestyle behaviours. Our aim was to investigate the significance of obesity, heavy smoking, and both combined in terms of prevalence trends and their relationship with other lifestyle factors. Methods: We used data from the population-based cross-sectional Swiss Health Survey (5 waves, 1992-2012) comprising 85,575 individuals aged 18 years. Height, weight, and smoking status were self-reported. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyse differences in lifestyle for the combinations of BMI category and smoking status, focusing on obese and heavy smokers. We defined normal-weight never smokers as reference.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Presence of Leishmania RNA Virus 1 in Leishmania guyanensis Increases the Risk of First-Line Treatment Failure and Symptomatic Relapse.

Treatment failure and symptomatic relapse are major concerns in American tegumentary leishmaniasis (TL). Such complications are seen frequently in Leishmania guyanensis infections, in which patients respond variously to first-line antileishmanials and are more prone to develop chronic cutaneous leishmaniasis. The factors underlying this pathology, however, are unknown. Recently, we reported that a double-stranded RNA virus, Leishmania RNA virus 1 (LRV1), nested within L. guyanensis parasites is able to exacerbate experimental murine leishmaniasis by inducing a hyperinflammatory response. This report investigates the prevalence of LRV1 in human L. guyanensis infection and its effect on treatment efficacy, as well as its correlation to symptomatic relapses after the completion of first-line treatment. In our cohort of 75 patients with a diagnosis of primary localized American TL, the prevalence of LRV1-positive L. guyanensis infection was elevated to 58%. All patients infected with LRV1-negative L. guyanensis were cured after 1 dose (22 of 31 [71%]) or 2 doses (31 of 31 [100%]) of pentamidine. In contrast, 12 of 44 LRV1-positive patients (27%) presented with persistent infection and symptomatic relapse that required extended therapy and the use of second-line drugs. Finally, LRV1 presence was associated with a significant increase in levels of intra-lesional inflammatory markers. In conclusion, LRV1 status in L. guyanensis infection is significantly predictive (P = .0009) of first-line treatment failure and symptomatic relapse and has the potential to guide therapeutic choices in American TL.