183 resultados para interpolazione locale curve spline generalizzate blending transition
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The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.
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14C dating models are limited when considering recent groundwater for which the carbon isotopic signature of the total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) is mainly acquired in the unsaturated zone. Reducing the uncertainties of dating thus implies a better identification of the processes controlling the carbon isotopic composition of the TDIC during groundwater recharge. Geochemical interactions between gas, water and carbonates in the unsaturated zone were investigated for two aquifers (the carbonate-free Fontainebleau sands and carbonate-bearing Astian sands, France) in order to identify the respective roles of CO2 and carbonates on the carbon isotopic signatures of the TDIC; this analysis is usually approached using open or closed system terms. Under fully open system conditions, the seasonality of the 13C values in the soil CO2 can lead to important uncertainties regarding the so-called "initial 14C activity" used in 14C correction models. In a carbonate-bearing unsaturated zone such as in the Astian aquifer, we show that an approach based on fully open or closed system conditions is not appropriate. Although the chemical saturation between water and calcite occurs rapidly within the first metre of the unsaturated zone, the carbon isotopic contents (δ13C) of the CO2 and the TDIC evolve downward, impacted by the dissolution-precipitation of the carbonates. In this study, we propose a numerical approach to describe this evolution. The δ13C and the A 14C (radiocarbon activity) of the TDIC at the base of the carbonate-hearing unsaturated zone depends on (i) the δ13C and the A 14C of the TDIC in the soil determined by the soil CO2, (ii) the water's residence time in the unsaturated zone and (iii) the carbonate precipitation-dissolution fluxes. In this type of situation, the carbonate δ13C-A 14C evolutions indicate the presence of secondary calcite and permit the calculation of its accretion flux, equal to ~ 4.5 ± 0.5 x 10-9 mol grock-1 yr-1. More generally, for other sites under temperate climate and with similar properties to the Astian sands site, this approach allows for a reliable determination of the carbon isotopic composition at the base of the unsaturated zone as the indispensable "input function" data of the carbon cycle into the aquifer.
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The net mechanical efficiency of positive work (eta(pos)) has been shown to increase if it is immediately preceded by negative work. This phenomenon is explained by the storage of elastic energy during the negative phase and its release during the subsequent positive phase. If a transition time (T) takes place, the elastic energy is dissipated into heat. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between eta(pos) and T, and to determine the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value. Seven healthy male subjects were tested during four series of lowering-raising of the body mass. In the first series (S (0)), the negative and positive phases were executed without any transition time. In the three other series, T was varied by a timer (0.12, 0.24 and 0.56 s for series S (1), S (2) and S (3), respectively). These exercises were performed on a force platform sensitive to vertical forces to measure the mechanical work and a gas analyser was used to determine the energy expenditure. The results indicated that eta(pos) was the highest (31.1%) for the series without any transition time (S (0)). The efficiencies observed with transition times (S (1), S (2) and S (3)) were 27.7, 26.0 and 23.8%, respectively, demonstrating that T plays an important role for mechanical efficiency. The investigation of the relationship between eta(pos) and T revealed that the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value is 0.59 s.
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Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are carcinogenic. Estimating PCB half-life in the body based on levels in sera from exposed workers is complicated by the fact that occupational exposure to PCBs was to commercial PCB products (such as Aroclors 1242 and 1254) comprised of varying mixtures of PCB congeners. Half-lives were estimated using sera donated by 191 capacitor manufacturing plant workers in 1976 during PCB use (1946-1977), and post-exposure (1979, 1983, and 1988). Our aims were to: (1) determine the role of covariates such as gender on the half-life estimates, and (2) compare our results with other published half-life estimates based on exposed workers. All serum PCB levels were adjusted for PCB background levels. A linear spline model with a single knot was used to estimate two separate linear equations for the first two serum draws (Equation A) and the latter two (Equation B). Equation A gave half-life estimates of 1.74 years and 6.01 years for Aroclor 1242 and Aroclor 1254, respectively. Estimates were 21.83 years for Aroclor 1242 and 133.33 years for Aroclor 1254 using Equation B. High initial body burden was associated with rapid PCB elimination in workers at or shortly after the time they were occupationally exposed and slowed down considerably when the dose reached background PCB levels. These concentration-dependent half-life estimates had a transition point of 138.57 and 34.78 ppb for Aroclor 1242 and 1254, respectively. This result will help in understanding the toxicological and epidemiological impact of exposure to PCBs in humans.
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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether adult specialists comply with the basic principles for a successful transition of adolescents with chronic disorders, and to determine whether the characteristics of the adult specialists have an influence on applying these principles. METHODS: Out of 299 adult specialists in four French-speaking Swiss cantons, 209 (70%) answered a paper-and-pencil mailed questionnaire between May and July 2007. Only those having received the transfer of at least one adolescent in the previous 2 years (N=102) were included in the analysis. We analyzed four dependent variables: discussing common concerns of adolescent patients, seeing the patient alone, having a transition protocol, and having a previous contact with the pediatric specialist. A logistic regression was performed for each dependent variable controlling for the physicians' characteristics (number of transfers, age, gender, workplace, and perceived experience). RESULTS: Fifty-four percent of the physicians did not spend time alone with their patients, and sensitive issues such as sexuality or substance use were not widely discussed with their young patients. Most respondents (59%) did not have an established protocol, and 54% did not have any contact with the pediatric specialist. In the multivariate analyses, the adult specialists' characteristics had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: For many adolescents with chronic disorders the transition from pediatric to adult healthcare seems to be limited to a simple transfer, often lacking adequate communication between physicians. Applying simple but basic principles such as a good coordination between providers would probably improve the quality of healthcare of adolescents with chronic illness.
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Deccan intertrappean sediments in central India are generally considered as terrestrial deposits of Maastrichtian age, but the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) position is still unknown. Here we report the discovery of the K-T transition, a marine incursion and environmental changes preserved within the intertrappean sediments at Jhilmili, Chhindwara District, Madhya Pradesh. Integrative biostratigraphic, sedimentologic, mineralogic and chemostratigraphic analyses reveal the basal Danian in the intertrappean sediments between lower and upper trap basalts that regionally correspond to C29r and the C29R/C29N transition, respectively. Intertrappean deposition occurred in predominantly terrestrial semi-humid to and environments. But a short aquatic interval of fresh water ponds and lakes followed by shallow coastal marine conditions with brackish marine ostracods and early Danian zone P1a planktic foraminifera mark this interval very close to the K-T boundary. This marine incursion marks the existence of a nearby seaway, probably extending inland from the west through the Narmada and Tapti rift valleys. The Jhilmili results thus identify the K-T boundary near the end of the main phase of Deccan eruptions and indicate that a major seaway extended at least 800 km across India. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Problématique : En Suisse, la situation des requérants d'asile est réglementée depuis 1999 par la Loi sur l'Asile (LAsi) qui leur donnait droit jusqu'en 2008 à une aide sociale, que leur demande soit acceptée, refusée ou que les autorités responsables n'entrent pas en matière. Depuis janvier 2008, tout requérant d'asile ne recevant pas de réponse positive perd cette aide sociale au profit d'une aide dite « d'urgence », impliquant un durcissement des conditions de vie. Depuis lors, un Groupe de Travail « Critères de vulnérabilité » (GT-Vulnérabilité) se charge, sur mandat de l'Etablissement Vaudois d'Accueil des Migrants (EVAM), d'évaluer la situation de certaines personnes percevant l'aide d'urgence sur la base de rapports médicaux et psychiatriques. Il détermine premièrement si la personne doit être considérée comme « vulnérable » pour raison de santé et pose ensuite un préavis médical quant à la possibilité d'amélioration des conditions d'hébergement. Les personnes reconnues comme particulièrement vulnérables sont soumises à un régime différent, impliquant des avantages spécifiés dans l'aide d'urgence. Objectifs : Décrire l'état de santé physique mais surtout mental des personnes percevant l'Aide d'urgence, pour lesquelles une demande a été effectuée auprès de ce groupe et identifier des facteurs associés à cet état de santé. Présenter comment le système de soins organise sa prise en charge et explorer les implications sur la pratique médicale. Méthodologie : Revue exhaustive de la littérature afin de mieux comprendre le contexte social, le cadre légal et les questions éthiques qu'ils impliquent. A partir des dossiers traités par le GT- Vulnérabilité, établissement d'une base de données regroupant des informations d'ordre démographique, médical et anamnestique et analyse descriptive univariée. Résultats: De janvier 2008 à avril 2011, le GT-Vulnérabilité a traité 411 demandes. Parmi les personnes concernées, 52% viennent d'Afrique et sont principalement sans famille. Le GT- Vulnérabilité a pu rendre une décision dans 79% des cas, donnant un préavis en faveur du requérant d'asile pour 82% d'entre eux. On retrouve plus fréquemment une réponse positive lorsqu'il s'agit d'une femme, ou d'une personne avec sa famille. L'étude des dossiers contenant un rapport de généraliste, a montré la présence d'au moins deux diagnostics somatiques chez 42% des personnes, concernant notamment les maladies infectieuses et parasitaires et des atteintes du système nerveux. On retrouve au moins un trouble psychiatrique dans 74% des cas. Il s'agit en particulier de troubles de l'humeur unipolaires et de syndromes de stress post-traumatiques. Les rapports psychiatriques ont également permis d'identifier l'existence de traumatismes chez 81% des personnes, associés surtout à la guerre, à des maltraitance et violences, dans le pays d'origine, mais aussi en Suisse. Conclusion : La situation médicale des requérants d'asile soumis au régime de l'aide d'urgence est préoccupante. Elle met le système de santé et ses divers protagonistes face à des questionnements et des enjeux d'ordre éthique et demande une nécessaire réflexion en termes de santé publique et de politique sanitaire.
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La venue d'un premier enfant implique d'importants remaniements. Le couple conjugal est mis à rude épreuve et la littérature anglo-saxonne fait état d'une baisse de la satisfaction conjugale durant la période de transition à la parentalité. De plus, au couple conjugal s'ajoutent le couple co-parental (relations entre les parents à propos de leur enfant) et les dyades parentales (parent/enfant). L'articulation entre les sous-systèmes conjugal, co-parental et parental va varier d'une famille à l'autre : prépondérance du parental ou du conjugal, présence d'un co-parentage soutenant ou non, etc. La baisse de la satisfaction conjugale lors de la transition à la parentalité est confirmée dans une étude réalisée en Suisse et présentée dans cet article. Des vignettes cliniques de jeux familiaux illustrent ensuite les différentes articulations possibles du conjugal, du co-parental et du familial. The birth of a first child implies important reorganizations. The marital relationship is under stress and Anglo-Saxon literature shows that there is a decrease of the marital satisfaction during the transition to parenthood. Moreover, when partners become parents, coparenting (relationship between the parents regarding their child) and parental dyads (parent-infant) are added to the marital relationship. The articulation between the conjugal, coparental and parental sub-systems varies from one family to the other : preponderance of the parental or the conjugal subsystem, presence of a supportive co-parenting or not, etc. The decrease of the marital satisfaction during the transition to parenthood is confirmed in a Swiss study and described in this article. Descriptions of family games illustrate then the different possible articulations of the conjugal, coparental and parental subsystems.
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Cet article présente les risques liés aux transitians de soins et en particulier hospitalo-ambulatoires, qui, sans mesure d'accompagnement proactive, menacent le processus de rétablissement des personnes souffrant de troubles psychiatriques. En effet, les risques de rupture des soins et de réadmission sont davantage liés aux caractéristiques du système sociosanitaire qu'à celles du patient ou de la maladie. Des mesures d'accompagnement simples ne sont pas systématiques dans le domaine de la psychiatrie, alors même que ces patients sont particulièrement vulnérables dans les périodes de post-hospitalisation souvent synonymes de barrières au traitement. Le modèle de case management de transition développé à Lausanne est brièvement présenté et illustré au moyen d'une vignette clinique. Ses particularités sont notamment le recours systématique à certains outils soutenant le rétablissement et l'implication active du patient et de son entourage depuis l'hospitalisation jusqu'au retour dans la communauté.
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Compilation of the recent literature from the Southern Alps and adjacent area confirms the geochemical variations of unusual amplitudes during the Permian-Triassic boundary interval (PTBI). A great attention has been given to the negative δ13C anomaly within the Tesero Member close to the Permian-Triassic boundary. Very detailed geochemical works have been done on the scientific Gartnerkofel core (Gk-1) and on the Slovenian sections. Major minor and rare earth elements (REE) data are reported and show a marked enrichment in alkaline metals and REE of some levels of the boundary interval. But recent studies show that the low Iridium anomalies and the Osmium and Helium isotopes anomalies lack the characteristics of a large extraterrestrial impact.
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This contribution builds upon a former paper by the authors (Lipps and Betz 2004), in which a stochastic population projection for East- and West Germany is performed. Aim was to forecast relevant population parameters and their distribution in a consistent way. We now present some modifications, which have been modelled since. First, population parameters for the entire German population are modelled. In order to overcome the modelling problem of the structural break in the East during reunification, we show that the adaptation process of the relevant figures by the East can be considered to be completed by now. As a consequence, German parameters can be modelled just by using the West German historic patterns, with the start-off population of entire Germany. Second, a new model to simulate age specific fertility rates is presented, based on a quadratic spline approach. This offers a higher flexibility to model various age specific fertility curves. The simulation results are compared with the scenario based official forecasts for Germany in 2050. Exemplary for some population parameters (e.g. dependency ratio), it can be shown that the range spanned by the medium and extreme variants correspond to the s-intervals in the stochastic framework. It seems therefore more appropriate to treat this range as a s-interval covering about two thirds of the true distribution.
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Age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture are evaluated, as assessed by trabecular bone score (TBS), in a cohort of 5,942 French women. The magnitude of TBS decline between 45 and 85 years of age is piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %. TBS decline rate increases after 65 years by 50 %. INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate age-related changes in lumbar vertebral microarchitecture, as assessed by TBS, in a cohort of French women aged 45-85 years. METHODS: An all-comers cohort of French Caucasian women was selected from two clinical centers. Data obtained from these centers were cross-calibrated for TBS and bone mineral density (BMD). BMD and TBS were evaluated at L1-L4 and for all lumbar vertebrae combined using GE-Lunar Prodigy densitometer images. Weight, height, and body mass index (BMI) also were determined. To validate our all-comers cohort, the BMD normative data of our cohort and French Prodigy data were compared. RESULTS: A cohort of 5,942 French women aged 45 to 85 years was created. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry normative data obtained for BMD from this cohort were not significantly different from French prodigy normative data (p = 0.15). TBS values at L1-L4 were poorly correlated with BMI (r = -0.17) and weight (r = -0.14) and not correlated with height. TBS values obtained for all lumbar vertebra combined (L1, L2, L3, L4) decreased with age. The magnitude of TBS decline at L1-L4 between 45 and 85 years of age was piecewise linear in the spine and averaged 14.5 %, but this rate increased after 65 years by 50 %. Similar results were obtained for other region of interest in the lumbar spine. As opposed to BMD, TBS was not affected by spinal osteoarthrosis. CONCLUSION: The age-specific reference curve for TBS generated here could therefore be used to help clinicians to improve osteoporosis patient management and to monitor microarchitectural changes related to treatment or other diseases in routine clinical practice.
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Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.