Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statin therapy using different scoring systems in Europe: a population-based study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10- year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Europe. METHODS: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10- year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD>20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD≥5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. RESULTS: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC. Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24′ 310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). CONCLUSIONS: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Europe.

Clinical follow-up of women infected with human papillomavirus-16, either alone or with other human papillomavirus types: identification of different risk groups.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the clinical impact of multiple infections of the cervix by human papillomavirus, including human papillomavirus-16, compared with single human papillomavirus-16 infection. STUDY DESIGN: One hundred sixty-nine women were classified in 3 categories depending on their human papillomavirus profile: human papillomavirus-16 only, human papillomavirus-16 and low-risk type(s), and human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk type(s). Cervical brush samples were analyzed for human papillomavirus DNA by polymerase chain reaction and reverse line blot hybridization. All women were evaluated with colposcopy during 24 months or more. Management was according to the Bethesda recommendations. RESULTS: Women infected with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) presented more progression or no change in the grade of dysplasia, compared with women of the other groups (relative risk [RR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.82; P = .02 at 6 months; RR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.46-3.02; P < .001 at 12 months; RR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.72; P = .004 at 24 months). CONCLUSION: Coinfection of women with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) increases the risk of unfavorable evolution.

Physicians' attitudes towards prevention: importance of intervention-specific barriers and physicians' health habits.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have explored physicians' attitudes towards prevention and barriers to the delivery of preventive health interventions. However, the relative importance of these previously identified barriers, both in general terms and in the context of a number of specific preventive interventions, has not been identified. Certain barriers may only pertain to a subset of preventive interventions. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the relative importance of identified barriers to preventive interventions and to explore the association between physicians' characteristics and their attitudes towards prevention. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 496 of the 686 (72.3% response rate) generalist physicians from three Swiss cantons through a questionnaire asking physicians to rate the general importance of eight preventive health strategies and the relative importance of seven commonly cited barriers in relation to each specific preventive health strategy. RESULTS: The proportion of physicians rating each preventive intervention as being important varied from 76% for colorectal cancer screening to 100% for blood pressure control. Lack of time and lack of patient interest were generally considered to be important barriers by 41% and 44% of physicians, respectively, but the importance of these two barriers tended to be specifically higher for counselling-based interventions. Lack of training was most notably a barrier to counselling about alcohol and nutrition. Four characteristics of physicians predicted negative attitudes toward alcohol and smoking counselling: consumption of more than three alcoholic drinks per day [odds ratio (OR) = 8.4], sedentary lifestyle (OR = 3.4), lack of national certification (OR = 2.2) and lack of awareness of their own blood pressure (OR = 2.0). CONCLUSIONS: The relative importance of specific barriers varies across preventive interventions. This points to a need for tailored practice interventions targeting the specific barriers that impede a given preventive service. The negative influence of physicians' own health behaviours indicates a need for associated population-based interventions that reduce the prevalence of high-risk behaviours in the population as a whole.

Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.

Prendre des risques, ça rapporte ? Conduites à risques et perception des risques chez des adolescents tout-venant

Risk taking and its association with substance use by adolescents are often studied among clinical populations. The behavior of non-clinical adolescent samples is less well-known. According to some scholars, the adoption of risk behaviors can be predicted by a function of perceptions of both benefits and risks of such behaviors. However, the literature is still controversial about their respective significance. In this study, a non-clinical sample of 221 adolescents, aged 14 to 20, completed two questionnaires: the RIPS-R to estimate risk taking behaviors as well as perception of the risks and benefits of such behaviors, and the DEP-ADO to measure substance use. Our results show a high annual prevalence of socially accepted risk behaviors (drinking alcohol, not studying for exams, smoking tobacco). However, socially repressed behaviors (brawling, vandalism) are very occasional and are associated with problematic substance use. Globally, engagement in risk behaviors is more closely linked with the perceptions of its benefits than the perception of its risks. Finally, limitations and implications of these results for research and prevention are provided. Les prises de risques et leur association avec la consommation de substances chez les adolescents ont souvent été étudiées auprès de populations cliniques. Le comportement des jeunes tout-venant est en revanche moins bien connu. Selon certains théoriciens, la participation à des conduites à risques peut être déterminée en fonction des perceptions de leurs bénéfices et dangers potentiels. Toutefois, la littérature ne s'accorde pas sur l'importance respective que ces perceptions revêtent. Dans cette étude, 221 adolescents tout-venant, âgés de 14 à 20 ans, ont complété deux questionnaires : le RIPS-R pour évaluer la prise de risques et leur perception en termes de risques et de bénéfices, et la DEP-ADO pour mesurer la consommation de substances. Les résultats mettent en évidence une prévalence annuelle élevée des comportements à risques socialement acceptables (boire de l'alcool, fumer du tabac). En revanche, les comportements réprimés socialement (bagarres, actes de vandalisme) s'avèrent très occasionnels et sont associés à la consommation problématique de substances. Globalement, c'est la perception des bénéfices qui est le plus fortement liée au fait d'adopter un comportement à risque. Finalement, les limites et les implications pratiques de ces résultats sont discutées. © 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. Tous droits réservés.

Evaluation cardiologique préopératoire avant chirurgie non cardiaque: stratification du risque cardiovasculaire [Preoperative cardiac assessment before non-cardiac surgery: cardiac risk stratification].

Perioperative cardiac events occurring in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery are a common cause of morbidity and mortality. Current guidelines recommend an individualized approach to preoperative cardiac risk stratification prior to non-cardiac surgery, integrating risk factors both for the patient (active cardiac conditions, clinical risk factors, functional capacity) and for the planned surgery. Preoperative cardiac investigations are currently limited to high-risk patients in whom they may contribute to modify the perioperative management. A multidisciplinary approach to such patients, integrating the general practitioner, is recommended in order to define an individualized peri-operative strategy.

Health-risk behaviors and quality of life among young men.

PURPOSE: To examine the associations between substance use and other health-risk behaviors and quality of life (QOL) among young men. METHODS: The analytical sample consisted of 5,306 young Swiss men who participated in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors. Associations between seven distinct self-reported health-risk behaviors (risky single-occasion drinking; volume drinking; cigarette smoking; cannabis use; use of any other illicit drugs; sexual intercourse without a condom; low physical activity) were assessed via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to study the associations between each particular health-risk behavior and either physical or mental QOL (assessed with the SF-12v2) while adjusting for socio-demographic variables and the presence of all other health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Most health-risk behaviors co-occurred. However, low physical activity was not or negatively related to other health-risk behaviors. Almost all health-risk behaviors were associated with a greater likelihood of compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom (not associated with both physical and mental QOL) and frequent risky single-occasion drinking (not related to mental QOL after adjusting for the presence of other health-risk behaviors; positively associated with physical QOL) differed from this pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Health-risk behaviors are mostly associated with compromised QOL. However, sexual intercourse without a condom and frequent risky single-occasion drinking differ from this pattern and are therefore possibly particularly difficult to change relative to other health-risk behaviors.

What was your fracture risk evaluated by FRAX(®) the day before your osteoporotic fracture?

Osteoporotic fracture (OF) is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Switzerland is among the countries with the greatest risk. Our aim was (1) to calculate the FRAX(®) in a selected Swiss population the day before the occurrence of an OF and (2) to compare the results with the proposed Swiss FRAX(®) thresholds. The Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis proposed guidelines for the treatment of osteoporosis based on age-dependent thresholds. To identify a population at a very high risk of osteoporotic fracture, we included all consecutive patients in the active OF pathway cohort from the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. FRAX(®) was calculated with the available data the day before the actual OF. People with a FRAX(®) body mass index (BMI) or a FRAX(®) (bone mineral density) BMD lower than the Swiss thresholds were not considered at high risk. Two-hundred thirty-seven patients were included with a mean age of 77.2 years, and 80 % were female. Major types of fracture included hip (58 %) and proximal humerus (25 %) fractures. Mean FRAX(®) BMI values were 28.0, 10.0, 13.0, 26.0, and 37.0 % for age groups 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89 years old, respectively. Fifty percent of the population was not considered at high risk by the FRAX(®) BMI. FRAX(®) BMD was available for 95 patients, and 45 % had a T score < -2.5 standard deviation. Only 30 % of patients with a normal or osteopenic BMD were classified at high risk by FRAX(®) BMD. The current proposed Swiss thresholds were not able to classify at high risk in 50 to 70 % of the studied population the day before a major OF.

The prediction of cardiovascular events is improved by combination of Framingham risk score and subclinical atherosclerosis imaging

Purpose: In primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), it is accepted that the intensity of risk factor treatment should be guided by the magnitude of absolute risk. Risk factors tools like Framingham risk score (FHS) or noninvasive atherosclerosis imaging tests are available to detect high risk subjects. However, these methods are imperfect and may misclassify a large number of individuals. The purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate whether the prediction of future cardiovascular events (CVE) can be improved when subclinical imaging atherosclerosis (SCATS) is combined with the FRS in asymptomatic subjects. Methods: Overall, 1038 asymptomatic subjects (413 women, 625 men, mean age 49.1±12.8 years) were assessed for their cardiovascular risk using the FRS. B-mode ultrasonography on carotid and femoral arteries was performed by two investigators to detect atherosclerotic plaques (focal thickening of intima-media > 1.2 mm) and to measure carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT). The severity of SCATS was expressed by an ATS-burden Score (ABS) reflecting the number of the arterial sites with >1 plaques (range 0-4). CVE were defined as fatal or non fatal acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or angioplasty for peripheral artery disease. Results: during a mean follow-up of 4.9±3.1 years, 61 CVE were recorded. Event rates the rate of CVE increased significantly from 2.7% to 39.1% according to the ABS (p<0.001) and from 4% to 24.6% according to the quartiles of C-IMT. Similarly, FRS predicted CVE (p<0.001). When computing the angiographic markers of SCATS in addition of FRS, we observed an improvement of net reclassification rate of 16.6% (p< 0.04) for ABS as compared to 5.5% (p = 0.26) for C-IMT. Conclusion: these results indicate that the detection of subjects requiring more attention to prevent CVE can be significantly improved when using both FRS and SCATS imaging.

A preliminary evaluation of the validity of at-risk criteria for bipolar disorders in help-seeking adolescents and young adults.

INTRODUCTION: We have developed ultra-high risk criteria for bipolar affective disorder (bipolar at-risk - BAR) which include general criteria such as being in the peak age range of the onset of the disorder and a combination of specific criteria including sub-threshold mania, depressive symptoms, cyclothymic features and genetic risk. In the current study, the predictive validity of these criteria were tested in help-seeking adolescents and young adults. METHOD: This medical file-audit study was conducted at ORYGEN Youth Health (OYH), a public mental health program for young people aged between 15 and 24years and living in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. BAR criteria were applied to the intake assessments of all non-psychotic patients who were being treated in OYH on 31 January, 2008. All entries were then checked for conversion criteria. Hypomania/mania related additions or alterations to existing treatments or initiation of new treatment by the treating psychiatrist served as conversion criteria to mania. RESULTS: The BAR criteria were applied to 173 intake assessments. Of these, 22 patients (12.7%) met BAR criteria. The follow-up period of the sample was 265.5days on average (SD 214.7). There were significantly more cases in the BAR group (22.7%, n=5) than in the non-BAR group (0.7%, n=1) who met conversion criteria (p<.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that people who develop a first episode of mania can be identified during the prodromal phase. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in prospective clinical trials.

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION: In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Clinicopathologic analysis of acute myeloid leukemia arising from chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia arising from chronic myelomonocytic leukemia is currently classified as acute myeloid leukemia with myelodysplasia-related changes, a high-risk subtype. However, the specific features of these cases have not been well described. We studied 38 patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia who progressed to acute myeloid leukemia. We compared the clinicopathologic and genetic features of these cases with 180 patients with de novo acute myeloid leukemia and 34 patients with acute myeloid leukemia following myelodysplastic syndromes. We also examined features associated with progression from chronic myelomonocytic leukemia to acute myeloid leukemia by comparing the progressed chronic myelomonocytic leukemia cases with a cohort of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia cases that did not transform to acute myeloid leukemia. Higher white blood cell count, marrow cellularity, karyotype risk score, and Revised International Prognostic Scoring System score were associated with more rapid progression from chronic myelomonocytic leukemia to acute myeloid leukemia. Patients with acute myeloid leukemia ex chronic myelomonocytic leukemia were older (P<0.01) and less likely to receive aggressive treatment (P=0.02) than de novo acute myeloid leukemia patients. Most cases showed monocytic differentiation and fell into the intermediate acute myeloid leukemia karyotype risk group; 55% had normal karyotype and 17% had NPM1 mutation. Median overall survival was 6 months, which was inferior to de novo acute myeloid leukemia (17 months, P=0.002) but similar to post myelodysplastic syndrome acute myeloid leukemia. On multivariate analysis of all acute myeloid leukemia patients, only age and karyotype were independent prognostic variables for overall survival. Our findings indicate that acute myeloid leukemia following chronic myelomonocytic leukemia displays aggressive behavior and support placement of these cases within the category of acute myeloid leukemia with myelodysplasia-related changes. The poor prognosis of these patients may be related to an older population and lack of favorable-prognosis karyotypes that characterize many de novo acute myeloid leukemia cases.

A clinical prognostic model for the identification of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism and active cancer.

BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.

Disaster Risk, Livelihoods and Natural Barriers, Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study from northern Pakistan

The goal of this interdisciplinary study is to better understand the land use factors that increase vulnerability of mountain areas in northern Pakistan. The study will identify and analyse the damages and losses caused by the October 2005 earthquake in two areas of the same valley: one "low-risk" watershed with sound natural resources management, the other, "high-risk" in an ecologically degraded watershed. Secondly, the study will examine natural and man-made causes of secondary hazards in the study area, especially landslides; and third it will evaluate the cost of the earthquake damage in the study areas on the livelihoods of local communities and the sub-regional economy. There are few interdisciplinary studies to have correlated community land use practices, resources management, and disaster risk reduction in high-risk mountain areas. By better understanding these linkages, development- humanitarian- and donor agencies focused on disaster reduction can improve their risk reduction programs for mountainous regions.

Do pornographic websites influence boys' sexual behavior?

Purpose: To compare the sexual behavior of adolescent males who do and do not watch pornographic websites. Methods: This study was presented as a school survey. Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) database, a survey including 7,548 adolescents age 16-20. The setting was post-mandatory schools in Switzerland. A total of 2,891 male students who connected to the internet in the last 30 days were enrolled and distributed into two groups: boys who deliberately watched pornographic websites in the last 30 days (n ¼ 942; 33%) and boys who did not (n ¼ 1,949; 67%). Socio-demographic characteristics; frequency of connection to the internet; sexual behavior parameters (having a girlfriend and if yes, for more or less than 6 months; having had sexual intercourse; age at first sexual intercourse; use of a condom at last sexual intercourse; number of sexual partners; having made a partner pregnant). Results: A logistic regression was performed using STATA 9.2. The only significant socio-demographic variable was having a low socioeconomic status (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.66); no difference was found for age and academic track between the two groups. Boys who watch pornographic websites were also significantly more likely to connect frequently to the internet (one day a week: AOR 1.75; several days a week: AOR 2.36; every day: AOR 3.11), to have had sexual intercourse (AOR 2.06), and to have had their first sexual intercourse before age 15 (AOR 1.48). The stability of the relationship with their girlfriend did not appear to have any influence on the search for pornography on the internet. Conclusions: About one third of boys in our sample report having accessed pornographic websites in the last 30 days, a proportion similar to other studies. Watching such websites increases with the frequency of connection to the internet and seems to be correlated with an earlier sexual activity debut among adolescent males. However, having had first sexual intercourse before age 15 is the only sexual risk behavior that seems to be increased when watching pornographic websites among boys. Further studies should address the causality of this correlation and the factors influencing the search for pornography on the web among boys, in order to explore some new ways of prevention about sexual risk behaviors. Sources of Support: The SMASH02 survey was carried out with the financial support of the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health and the participating cantons.