Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

Combined laparoscopic-endoscopic method using an omental plug for therapy of gastroduodenal ulcer perforation.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic techniques have been proposed as an alternative to open surgery for therapy of peptic ulcer perforation. They provide better postoperative comfort and absence of parietal complications, but leakage occurs in 5% of cases. We describe a new method combining laparoscopy and endoluminal endoscopy, designed to ensure complete closure of the perforation. METHODS: Six patients with anterior ulcer perforations (4 duodenal, 2 gastric) underwent a concomitant laparoscopy and endoluminal endoscopy with closure of the orifice by an omental plug attracted into the digestive tract. RESULTS: All perforations were sealed. The mean operating time was 72 minutes. The mean hospital stay was 5.5 days. There was no morbidity and no mortality. At the 30-day evaluation all ulcers but one (due to Helicobacter pylori persistence) were healed. CONCLUSIONS: This method is safe and effective. Its advantages compared with open surgery or laparoscopic patching as well as its cost-effectiveness should be studied in prospective randomized trials.

Change in defense mechanisms and coping over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy for adjustment disorder.

Short-term dynamic psychotherapy (STDP) has rarely been investigated with regard to its underlying mechanisms of change, even if psychoanalytic theory informs us about several potential putative mechanisms of change in patients. Change in overall defensive functioning is one. In this study, we explored the role of overall defensive functioning, by comparing it on the process level with the neighbouring concept of overall coping functioning. A total of N=32 patients, mainly presenting adjustment disorder, were included in the study. The patients underwent STDP up to 40 sessions; three sessions per psychotherapy were transcribed and analyzed by using two observer-rating scales: Defense Mechanism Rating Scales (Perry, 1990) and Coping Action Patterns (Perry, Drapeau, Dunkley, & Blake, 2005). Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to model the change over the course of therapy and relate it to outcome. Results suggest that STDP has an effect on the target variable of overall defensive functioning, which was absent for overall coping functioning. Links with outcome confirm the importance of the effect. These results are discussed from methodological and clinical viewpoints.

Response-to-comments about: "Is it really the method for carbon dioxide determination in human postmortem cardiac gas samples using Headspace-Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry valid?" from T. Saffaj and B. Ihssane

Saffaj et al. recently criticized our method of monitoring carbon dioxide in human postmortem cardiac gas samples using Headspace-Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry. According to the authors, their demonstration, based on the latest SFSTP guidelines (established after 2007 [1,2]) fitted for the validation of drug monitoring bioanalytical methods, has put in evidence potential errors. However, our validation approach was built using SFSTP guidelines established before 2007 [3-6]. We justify the use of these guidelines because of the post-mortem context of the study (and not clinical) and the gaseous state of the sample (and not solid or liquid). Using these guidelines, our validation remains correct.

Hierarchical analyses of genetic differentiation in a hybrid zone of Sorex araneus (Insectivora : Soricidae)

Microsatellites are used to unravel the fine-scale genetic structure of a hybrid zone between chromosome races Valais and Cordon of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) located in the French Alps. A total of 269 individuals collected between 1992 and 1995 was typed for seven microsatellite loci. A modified version of the classical multiple correspondence analysis is carried out. This analysis clearly shows the dichotomy between the two races. Several approaches are used to study genetic structuring. Gene flow is clearly reduced between these chromosome races and is estimated at one migrant every two generations using X-statistics and one migrant per generation using F-statistics. Hierarchical F- and R-statistics are compared and their efficiency to detect inter- and intraracial patterns of divergence is discussed. Within-race genetic structuring is significant, but remains weak. F-ST displays similar values on both sides of the hybrid zone, although no environmental barriers are found on the Cordon side, whereas the Valais side is divided by several mountain rivers. We introduce the exact G-test to microsatellite data which proved to be a powerful test to detect genetic differentiation within as well as among races. The genetic background of karyotypic hybrids was compared with the genetic background of pure parental forms using a CRT-MCA. Our results indicate that, without knowledge of the karyotypes, we would not have been able to distinguish these hybrids from karyotypically pure samples.

A hierarchical approach to model parameter optimization for developmental systems.

In the context of Systems Biology, computer simulations of gene regulatory networks provide a powerful tool to validate hypotheses and to explore possible system behaviors. Nevertheless, modeling a system poses some challenges of its own: especially the step of model calibration is often difficult due to insufficient data. For example when considering developmental systems, mostly qualitative data describing the developmental trajectory is available while common calibration techniques rely on high-resolution quantitative data. Focusing on the calibration of differential equation models for developmental systems, this study investigates different approaches to utilize the available data to overcome these difficulties. More specifically, the fact that developmental processes are hierarchically organized is exploited to increase convergence rates of the calibration process as well as to save computation time. Using a gene regulatory network model for stem cell homeostasis in Arabidopsis thaliana the performance of the different investigated approaches is evaluated, documenting considerable gains provided by the proposed hierarchical approach.

Using a Bayesian method to assign individuals to karyotypic taxa in shrew hybrid zones.

Individuals sampled in hybrid zones are usually analysed according to their sampling locality, morphology, behaviour or karyotype. But the increasing availability of genetic information more and more favours its use for individual sorting purposes and numerous assignment methods based on the genetic composition of individuals have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer good opportunities to test the genetic assignment on individuals identified by their karyotype. Here we explored the potential and efficiency of a Bayesian assignment method combined or not with a reference dataset to study admixture and individual assignment in the difficult context of two hybrid zones between karyotypic species of the Sorex araneus group. As a whole, we assigned more than 80% of the individuals to their respective karyotypic categories (i.e. 'pure' species or hybrids). This assignment level is comparable to what was obtained for the same species away from hybrid zones. Additionally, we showed that the assignment result for several individuals was strongly affected by the inclusion or not of a reference dataset. This highlights the importance of such comparisons when analysing hybrid zones. Finally, differences between the admixture levels detected in both hybrid zones support the hypothesis of an impact of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow.

BRAF mutation in 'sarcomas': a possible method to detect de-differentiated melanomas

AIMS: BRAF is mutated in 50-60% of melanomas, but BRAF mutation in sarcomas has not been systematically evaluated. Some melanomas are spindled and may show no immunohistochemical evidence of melanocytic differentiation. Similarly, many sarcomas are undifferentiated, i.e. undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcomas (UPS). Diagnosing melanoma versus sarcoma in an undifferentiated spindle cell malignancy can be challenging. Our aim was to evaluate the prevalence of BRAF mutation in sarcomas and the use of BRAF mutational status in the diagnosis of spindle cell malignancies. METHODS AND RESULTS: BRAF mutational analysis was performed on tissue from 104 patients: 90 with sarcoma only (50 UPS) and 14 with sarcoma and melanoma (seven UPS). In the sarcoma-only group, BRAF mutation was absent. In the sarcoma-melanoma group, three sarcomas showed BRAF mutation; all were UPS, occurred after the melanomas and did not stain for melanocytic markers. One melanoma-sarcoma pair showed identical BRAF V600E mutations. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of BRAF mutation in these tumours raises the possibility that poorly differentiated spindle cell malignancies with BRAF mutation may represent melanomas, and BRAF mutational analysis should be considered in a patient with a spindle cell malignancy and a history of melanoma, as a positive result may indicate de-differentiated melanoma.

"INTERMED": a method to assess health service needs. I. Development and reliability.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the development and to test the reliability of a new method called INTERMED, for health service needs assessment. The INTERMED integrates the biopsychosocial aspects of disease and the relationship between patient and health care system in a comprehensive scheme and reflects an operationalized conceptual approach to case mix or case complexity. The method is developed to enhance interdisciplinary communication between (para-) medical specialists and to provide a method to describe case complexity for clinical, scientific, and educational purposes. First, a feasibility study (N = 21 patients) was conducted which included double scoring and discussion of the results. This led to a version of the instrument on which two interrater reliability studies were performed. In study 1, the INTERMED was double scored for 14 patients admitted to an internal ward by a psychiatrist and an internist on the basis of a joint interview conducted by both. In study 2, on the basis of medical charts, two clinicians separately double scored the INTERMED in 16 patients referred to the outpatient psychiatric consultation service. Averaged over both studies, in 94.2% of all ratings there was no important difference between the raters (more than 1 point difference). As a research interview, it takes about 20 minutes; as part of the whole process of history taking it takes about 15 minutes. In both studies, improvements were suggested by the results. Analyses of study 1 revealed that on most items there was considerable agreement; some items were improved. Also, the reference point for the prognoses was changed so that it reflected both short- and long-term prognoses. Analyses of study 2 showed that in this setting, less agreement between the raters was obtained due to the fact that the raters were less experienced and the scoring procedure was more susceptible to differences. Some improvements--mainly of the anchor points--were specified which may further enhance interrater reliability. The INTERMED proves to be a reliable method for classifying patients' care needs, especially when used by experienced raters scoring by patient interview. It can be a useful tool in assessing patients' care needs, as well as the level of needed adjustment between general and mental health service delivery. The INTERMED is easily applicable in the clinical setting at low time-costs.

The Fry method applied to an augen orthogneiss: Problems and results

The application of the Fry method to measure strain in deformed porphyritic granites is discussed. This method requires that the distribution of markers has to satisfy at least two conditions. It has to be homogeneous and isotropic. Statistics on point distribution with the help of a Morishita diagram can easily test homogeneity. Isotropy can be checked with a cumulative histogram of angles between points. Application of these tests to undeformed (Mte Capanne granite, Elba) and to deformed (Randa orthogneiss, Alps of Switzerland) porphyritic granite reveals that their K-feldspars phenocrysts both satisfy these conditions and can be used as strain markers with the Fry method. Other problems are also examined. One is the possible distribution of deformation on discrete shear-bands. Providing several tests are met, we conclude that the Fry method can be used to estimate strain in deformed porphyritic granites. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simplified method of stabilization and hemostasis for minimally invasive coronary artery bypass.

We describe a simple method to achieve both hemostasis and stabilization of the left anterior descending coronary artery during minimally invasive coronary artery bypass grafting. This technique allows the surgeon to perform a precise anastomosis of the left internal mammary artery to the target vessel on a beating heart.

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.