Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure Among Older Adults: The Health ABC Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of abnormal spirometric findings on risk for incident heart failure among older adults without clinically apparent lung disease is not well elucidated.METHODS: We evaluated the association of baseline lung function with incident heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for heart failure, in 2125 participants of the community-based Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study (age, 73.6 +/- 2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 37.7% black) without prevalent lung disease or heart failure. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) or forced expiratory volume in 1(st) second (FEV1) to FVC ratio below lower limit of normal. Percent predicted FVC and FEV1 also were assessed as continuous variables.RESULTS: During follow-up (median, 9.4 years), heart failure developed in 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal baseline lung function, as compared with 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR] 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-3.07; P <.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for previously identified heart failure risk factors in the Health ABC Study, body mass index, incident coronary heart disease, and inflammatory markers (HR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.33-2.50; P <.001). Percent predicted (%) FVC and FEV 1 had a linear association with heart failure risk (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32 and 1.18; 95% CI, 1.10-1.26, per 10% lower % FVC and % FEV1, respectively; both P <.001 in fully adjusted models). Findings were consistent in sex and race subgroups and for heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction.CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal spirometric findings in older adults without clinical lung disease are associated with increased heart failure risk. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. The American Journal of Medicine (2011) 124, 334-341

Ruin and related quantities in some advanced insurance risk models

Risk theory has been a very active research area over the last decades. The main objectives of the theory are to find adequate stochastic processes which can model the surplus of a (non-life) insurance company and to analyze the risk related quantities such as ruin time, ruin probability, expected discounted penalty function and expected discounted dividend/tax payments. The study of these ruin related quantities provides crucial information for actuaries and decision makers. This thesis consists of the study of four different insurance risk models which are essentially related. The ruin and related quantities are investigated by using different techniques, resulting in explicit or asymptotic expressions for the ruin time, the ruin probability, the expected discounted penalty function and the expected discounted tax payments. - La recherche en théorie du risque a été très dynamique au cours des dernières décennies. D'un point de vue théorique, les principaux objectifs sont de trouver des processus stochastiques adéquats permettant de modéliser le surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance non vie et d'analyser les mesures de risque, notamment le temps de ruine, la probabilité de ruine, l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes. L'étude de ces mesures associées à la ruine fournit des informations cruciales pour les actuaires et les décideurs. Cette thèse consiste en l'étude des quatre différents modèles de risque d'assurance qui sont essentiellement liés. La ruine et les mesures qui y sont associées sont examinées à l'aide de différentes techniques, ce qui permet d'induire des expressions explicites ou asymptotiques du temps de ruine, de la probabilité de ruine, de l'espérance de la valeur actuelle de la fonction de pénalité et l'espérance de la valeur actuelle des dividendes et taxes.

Social inequalities of functioning and perceived health in Switzerland: a representative cross-sectional analysis.

Many people worldwide live with a disability, i.e. limitations in functioning. The prevalence is expected to increase due to demographic change and the growing importance of non-communicable disease and injury. To date, many epidemiological studies have used simple dichotomous measures of disability, even though the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) provides a multi-dimensional framework of functioning. We aimed to examine associations of socio-economic status (SES) and social integration in 3 core domains of functioning (impairment, pain, limitations in activity and participation) and perceived health. We conducted a secondary analysis of representative cross-sectional data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 including 10,336 female and 8,424 male Swiss residents aged 15 or more. Guided by a theoretical ICF-based model, 4 mixed effects Poisson regressions were fitted in order to explain functioning and perceived health by indicators of SES and social integration. Analyses were stratified by age groups (15-30, 31-54, ≥55 years). In all age groups, SES and social integration were significantly associated with functional and perceived health. Among the functional domains, impairment and pain were closely related, and both were associated with limitations in activity and participation. SES, social integration and functioning were related to perceived health. We found pronounced social inequalities in functioning and perceived health, supporting our theoretical model. Social factors play a significant role in the experience of health, even in a wealthy country such as Switzerland. These findings await confirmation in other, particularly lower resourced settings.

Does the working environment influence health care professionals' values, meaning in life and religiousness? Palliative care units compared with maternity wards.

CONTEXT: Increased altruism, self-transcendence, and quests for meaning in life (MiL) have been found in palliative care (PC) patients and their families who experience the finiteness of life. Similar changes were observed in healthy subjects who were experimentally confronted with their mortality. OBJECTIVES: The study investigated how daily experiences of the transitoriness of life influence PC health care professionals' (HCPs) values, MiL, and religiousness. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, the Schwartz Value Survey, the Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation, and the Idler Index of Religiosity were used to investigate personal values, MiL, and private religiousness. HCPs working in PC (confronted with death) were compared with a control group of HCPs working at maternity wards (MWs) using multivariate models. Differences were considered to be statistically significant at P < 0.05. RESULTS: Seventy PC- and 70 MW-HCPs took part in the study (response rate 74.0%). No differences between the groups were found in overall MiL satisfaction scores. PC-HCPs were significantly more religious than MW-HCPs; they listed spirituality and nature experience more often as areas in which they experience MiL. Furthermore, hedonism was more important for PC-HCPs, and they had higher scores in openness-to-change values (stimulation and self-direction). MW-HCPs were more likely to list family as a MiL area. They assigned more importance to health and scored higher in conservation values (conformity and security). Duration of professional experience did not influence these results. CONCLUSION: Basic differences in values, MiL, and religiousness between PC-HCPs and MW-HCPs might have influenced the choice of working environment because no effect of job duration was observed. Longitudinal research is needed to confirm this hypothesis.

Potential health-care service utilization substitution effects induced by case management for emergency department frequent users

BACKGROUND: In most of the emergency departments (ED) in developed countries, a subset of patients visits the ED frequently. Despite their small numbers, these patients are the source of a disproportionally high number of all ED visits, and use a significant proportion of healthcare resources. They place a heavy economic burden on hospital and healthcare systems budgets overall. Several interventions have been carried out to improve the management of these ED frequent users. Case management has been shown in some North American studies to reduce ED utilization and costs. In these studies, cost analyses have been carried out from the hospital perspective without examining the costs induced by healthcare consumed in the community. However, case management might reduce ED visits and costs from the hospital's perspective, but induce substitution effects, and increase health service utilization outside the hospital. This study examined if an interdisciplinary case-management intervention-compared to standard ED care -reduced costs generated by frequent ED users not only from the hospital perspective, but also from the healthcare system perspective-that is, from a broader perspective taking into account the costs of healthcare services used outside the hospital. METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial, 250 adult frequent emergency department users (5 or more visits during the previous 12 months) who visited the ED of the University Hospital of Lausanne, Switzerland, between May 2012 and July 2013 were allocated to one of two groups: case management intervention (CM) or standard ED care (SC), and followed up for 12 months. Depending on the perspective of the analysis, costs were evaluated differently. For the analysis from the hospital's perspective, the true value of resources used to provide services was used as a cost estimate. These data were obtained from the hospital's analytical accounting system. For the analysis from the health-care system perspective, all health-care services consumed by users and charged were used as an estimate of costs. These data were obtained from health insurance providers for a subsample of participants. To allow comparisons in a same time period, individual monthly average costs were calculated. Multivariate linear models including a fixed effect "group" were run using socio-demographic characteristics and health-related variables as controlling variables (age, gender, educational level, citizenship, marital status, somatic and mental health problems, and risk behaviors).

Commentary on "The Cognitive-Emotional Brain: From Interactions to Integration" by Luiz Pessoa - "On theory integration: Toward developing affective components within cognitive architectures"

In The Cognitive-Emotional Brain, Pessoa (2013) suggests that cognition and emotion should not be considered separately. We agree with this and argue that cognitive architectures can provide steady ground for this kind of theory integration and for investigating interactions among underlying cognitive processes. We briefly explore how affective components can be implemented and how neuroimaging measures can help validate models and influence theory development.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

Respiratory health effects of fifteen years of improved collective protection in a wheat-processing worker population.

INTRODUCTION: Occupational exposure to grain dust causes respiratory symptoms and pathologies. To decrease these effects, major changes have occurred in the grain processing industry in the last twenty years. However, there are no data on the effects of these changes on workers' respiratory health. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the respiratory health of grain workers and farmers involved in different steps of the processing industry of wheat, the most frequently used cereal in Europe, fifteen years after major improvements in collective protective equipment due to mechanisation. MATERIALS AND METHOD: Information on estimated personal exposure to wheat dust was collected from 87 workers exposed to wheat dust and from 62 controls. Lung function (FEV1, FVC, and PEF), exhaled nitrogen monoxide (FENO) and respiratory symptoms were assessed after the period of highest exposure to wheat during the year. Linear regression models were used to explore the associations between exposure indices and respiratory effects. RESULTS: Acute symptoms - cough, sneezing, runny nose, scratchy throat - were significantly more frequent in exposed workers than in controls. Increased mean exposure level, increased cumulative exposure and chronic exposure to more than 6 mg.m (-3) of inhaled wheat dust were significantly associated with decreased spirometric parameters, including FEV1 and PEF (40 ml and 123 ml.s (-1) ), FEV1 and FVC (0.4 ml and 0.5 ml per 100 h.mg.m (-3) ), FEV1 and FVC (20 ml and 20 ml per 100 h at >6 mg.m (-3) ). However, no increase in FENO was associated with increased exposure indices. CONCLUSIONS: The lung functions of wheat-related workers are still affected by their cumulative exposure to wheat dust, despite improvements in the use of collective protective equipment.

What can ecosystems learn? Expanding evolutionary ecology with learning theory.

BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder.

Screening of mental health and substance users in frequent users of a general Swiss emergency department.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to determine the proportions of psychiatric and substance use disorders suffered by emergency departments' (EDs') frequent users compared to the mainstream ED population, to evaluate how effectively these disorders were diagnosed in both groups of patients by ED physicians, and to determine if these disorders were predictive of a frequent use of ED services. METHODS: This study is a cross-sectional study with concurrent and retrospective data collection. Between November 2009 and June 2010, patients' mental health and substance use disorders were identified prospectively in face-to-face research interviews using a screening questionnaire (i.e. researcher screening). These data were compared to the data obtained from a retrospective medical chart review performed in August 2011, searching for mental health and substance use disorders diagnosed by ED physicians and recorded in the patients' ED medical files (i.e. ED physician diagnosis). The sample consisted of 399 eligible adult patients (≥18 years old) admitted to the urban, general ED of a University Hospital. Among them, 389 patients completed the researcher screening. Two hundred and twenty frequent users defined by >4 ED visits in the previous twelve months were included and compared to 169 patients with ≤4 ED visits in the same period (control group). RESULTS: Researcher screening showed that ED frequent users were more likely than members of the control group to have an anxiety, depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), or suffer from alcohol, illicit drug abuse/addiction. Reviewing the ED physician diagnosis, we found that the proportions of mental health and substance use disorders diagnosed by ED physicians were low both among ED frequent users and in the control group. Using multiple logistic regression analyses to predict frequent ED use, we found that ED patients who screened positive for psychiatric disorders only and those who screened positive for both psychiatric and substance use disorders were more likely to be ED frequent users compared to ED patients with no disorder. CONCLUSIONS: This study found high proportions of screened mental health and/or substance use disorders in ED frequent users, but it showed low rates of detection of such disorders in day-to-day ED activities which can be a cause for concern. Active screening for these disorders in this population, followed by an intervention and/or a referral for treatment by a case-management team may constitute a relevant intervention for integration into a general ED setting.

Social Support, Social and Temporal Comparisons Protect Well-Being and Health between 45 and 70 Years Old in Four Urban Communities

This study examined the impact of social support and of temporal and social comparisons on well-being and selfreported health in four capital cities: Paris, Berlin, Moscow and Beijing. Based on the lifespan control theory, an integrative model investigating the influence of these coping strategies, especially on the psychological regulation of health losses, was tested on 1141 respondents aged 45 to 70 years by using structural equation modelling with multigroup comparisons. Results indicated a good fit of the model to participants' responses. In all contexts, physical weaknesses favoured the use of social and temporal comparison strategies rather than social support. Moreover, across the cities, coping strategies were oriented more toward protecting self-evaluation of health than toward enhancement of well-being. Social comparison decreased the impact of physical weaknesses on health evaluation and on well-being in the four cities, but to a lesser extent in China. Results are discussed regarding the normative cross-cultural aspects that intervene during ageing in the four urban contexts.

Seismic characterization of heterogeneous sedimentary and fractured rocks based on Biot's theory of poroelasticity

Understanding and quantifying seismic energy dissipation, which manifests itself in terms of velocity dispersion and attenuation, in fluid-saturated porous rocks is of considerable interest, since it offers the perspective of extracting information with regard to the elastic and hydraulic rock properties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that wave-induced fluid flow, or simply WIFF, is the dominant underlying physical mechanism governing these phenomena throughout the seismic, sonic, and ultrasonic frequency ranges. This mechanism, which can prevail at the microscopic, mesoscopic, and macroscopic scale ranges, operates through viscous energy dissipation in response to fluid pressure gradients and inertial effects induced by the passing wavefield. In the first part of this thesis, we present an analysis of broad-band multi-frequency sonic log data from a borehole penetrating water-saturated unconsolidated glacio-fluvial sediments. An inherent complication arising in the interpretation of the observed P-wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is, however, that the relative importance of WIFF at the various scales is unknown and difficult to unravel. An important generic result of our work is that the levels of attenuation and velocity dispersion due to the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities in water-saturated unconsolidated clastic sediments are expected to be largely negligible. Conversely, WIFF at the macroscopic scale allows for explaining most of the considered data while refinements provided by including WIFF at the microscopic scale in the analysis are locally meaningful. Using a Monte-Carlo-type inversion approach, we compare the capability of the different models describing WIFF at the macroscopic and microscopic scales with regard to their ability to constrain the dry frame elastic moduli and the permeability as well as their local probability distribution. In the second part of this thesis, we explore the issue of determining the size of a representative elementary volume (REV) arising in the numerical upscaling procedures of effective seismic velocity dispersion and attenuation of heterogeneous media. To this end, we focus on a set of idealized synthetic rock samples characterized by the presence of layers, fractures or patchy saturation in the mesocopic scale range. These scenarios are highly pertinent because they tend to be associated with very high levels of velocity dispersion and attenuation caused by WIFF in the mesoscopic scale range. The problem of determining the REV size for generic heterogeneous rocks is extremely complex and entirely unexplored in the given context. In this pilot study, we have therefore focused on periodic media, which assures the inherent self- similarity of the considered samples regardless of their size and thus simplifies the problem to a systematic analysis of the dependence of the REV size on the applied boundary conditions in the numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that boundary condition effects are absent for layered media and negligible in the presence of patchy saturation, thus resulting in minimum REV sizes. Conversely, strong boundary condition effects arise in the presence of a periodic distribution of finite-length fractures, thus leading to large REV sizes. In the third part of the thesis, we propose a novel effective poroelastic model for periodic media characterized by mesoscopic layering, which accounts for WIFF at both the macroscopic and mesoscopic scales as well as for the anisotropy associated with the layering. Correspondingly, this model correctly predicts the existence of the fast and slow P-waves as well as quasi and pure S-waves for any direction of wave propagation as long as the corresponding wavelengths are much larger than the layer thicknesses. The primary motivation for this work is that, for formations of intermediate to high permeability, such as, for example, unconsolidated sediments, clean sandstones, or fractured rocks, these two WIFF mechanisms may prevail at similar frequencies. This scenario, which can be expected rather common, cannot be accounted for by existing models for layered porous media. Comparisons of analytical solutions of the P- and S-wave phase velocities and inverse quality factors for wave propagation perpendicular to the layering with those obtained from numerical simulations based on a ID finite-element solution of the poroelastic equations of motion show very good agreement as long as the assumption of long wavelengths remains valid. A limitation of the proposed model is its inability to account for inertial effects in mesoscopic WIFF when both WIFF mechanisms prevail at similar frequencies. Our results do, however, also indicate that the associated error is likely to be relatively small, as, even at frequencies at which both inertial and scattering effects are expected to be at play, the proposed model provides a solution that is remarkably close to its numerical benchmark. -- Comprendre et pouvoir quantifier la dissipation d'énergie sismique qui se traduit par la dispersion et l'atténuation des vitesses dans les roches poreuses et saturées en fluide est un intérêt primordial pour obtenir des informations à propos des propriétés élastique et hydraulique des roches en question. De plus en plus d'études montrent que le déplacement relatif du fluide par rapport au solide induit par le passage de l'onde (wave induced fluid flow en anglais, dont on gardera ici l'abréviation largement utilisée, WIFF), représente le principal mécanisme physique qui régit ces phénomènes, pour la gamme des fréquences sismiques, sonique et jusqu'à l'ultrasonique. Ce mécanisme, qui prédomine aux échelles microscopique, mésoscopique et macroscopique, est lié à la dissipation d'énergie visqueuse résultant des gradients de pression de fluide et des effets inertiels induits par le passage du champ d'onde. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous présentons une analyse de données de diagraphie acoustique à large bande et multifréquences, issues d'un forage réalisé dans des sédiments glaciaux-fluviaux, non-consolidés et saturés en eau. La difficulté inhérente à l'interprétation de l'atténuation et de la dispersion des vitesses des ondes P observées, est que l'importance des WIFF aux différentes échelles est inconnue et difficile à quantifier. Notre étude montre que l'on peut négliger le taux d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses dû à la présence d'hétérogénéités à l'échelle mésoscopique dans des sédiments clastiques, non- consolidés et saturés en eau. A l'inverse, les WIFF à l'échelle macroscopique expliquent la plupart des données, tandis que les précisions apportées par les WIFF à l'échelle microscopique sont localement significatives. En utilisant une méthode d'inversion du type Monte-Carlo, nous avons comparé, pour les deux modèles WIFF aux échelles macroscopique et microscopique, leur capacité à contraindre les modules élastiques de la matrice sèche et la perméabilité ainsi que leur distribution de probabilité locale. Dans une seconde partie de cette thèse, nous cherchons une solution pour déterminer la dimension d'un volume élémentaire représentatif (noté VER). Cette problématique se pose dans les procédures numériques de changement d'échelle pour déterminer l'atténuation effective et la dispersion effective de la vitesse sismique dans un milieu hétérogène. Pour ce faire, nous nous concentrons sur un ensemble d'échantillons de roches synthétiques idéalisés incluant des strates, des fissures, ou une saturation partielle à l'échelle mésoscopique. Ces scénarios sont hautement pertinents, car ils sont associés à un taux très élevé d'atténuation et de dispersion des vitesses causé par les WIFF à l'échelle mésoscopique. L'enjeu de déterminer la dimension d'un VER pour une roche hétérogène est très complexe et encore inexploré dans le contexte actuel. Dans cette étude-pilote, nous nous focalisons sur des milieux périodiques, qui assurent l'autosimilarité des échantillons considérés indépendamment de leur taille. Ainsi, nous simplifions le problème à une analyse systématique de la dépendance de la dimension des VER aux conditions aux limites appliquées. Nos résultats indiquent que les effets des conditions aux limites sont absents pour un milieu stratifié, et négligeables pour un milieu à saturation partielle : cela résultant à des dimensions petites des VER. Au contraire, de forts effets des conditions aux limites apparaissent dans les milieux présentant une distribution périodique de fissures de taille finie : cela conduisant à de grandes dimensions des VER. Dans la troisième partie de cette thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle poro- élastique effectif, pour les milieux périodiques caractérisés par une stratification mésoscopique, qui prendra en compte les WIFF à la fois aux échelles mésoscopique et macroscopique, ainsi que l'anisotropie associée à ces strates. Ce modèle prédit alors avec exactitude l'existence des ondes P rapides et lentes ainsi que les quasis et pures ondes S, pour toutes les directions de propagation de l'onde, tant que la longueur d'onde correspondante est bien plus grande que l'épaisseur de la strate. L'intérêt principal de ce travail est que, pour les formations à perméabilité moyenne à élevée, comme, par exemple, les sédiments non- consolidés, les grès ou encore les roches fissurées, ces deux mécanismes d'WIFF peuvent avoir lieu à des fréquences similaires. Or, ce scénario, qui est assez commun, n'est pas décrit par les modèles existants pour les milieux poreux stratifiés. Les comparaisons des solutions analytiques des vitesses des ondes P et S et de l'atténuation de la propagation des ondes perpendiculaires à la stratification, avec les solutions obtenues à partir de simulations numériques en éléments finis, fondées sur une solution obtenue en 1D des équations poro- élastiques, montrent un très bon accord, tant que l'hypothèse des grandes longueurs d'onde reste valable. Il y a cependant une limitation de ce modèle qui est liée à son incapacité à prendre en compte les effets inertiels dans les WIFF mésoscopiques quand les deux mécanismes d'WIFF prédominent à des fréquences similaires. Néanmoins, nos résultats montrent aussi que l'erreur associée est relativement faible, même à des fréquences à laquelle sont attendus les deux effets d'inertie et de diffusion, indiquant que le modèle proposé fournit une solution qui est remarquablement proche de sa référence numérique.

Association between resistin levels and cardiovascular disease events in older adults: The health, aging and body composition study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective data on the association between resistin levels and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are sparse with conflicting results. METHODS: We studied 3044 aged 70-79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. CVD events were defined as coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke events. «Hard » CHD events were defined as CHD death or myocardial infarction. We estimated hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) according to the quartiles of serum resistin concentrations and adjusted for clinical variables, and then further adjusted for metabolic disease (body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, abdominal visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue, leptin, adiponectin, insulin) and inflammation (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factors-α). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 559 patients had « hard » CHD events, 884 CHD events and 1106 CVD Events. Unadjusted incidence rate for CVD events was 36.6 (95% CI 32.1-41.1) per 1000 persons-year in the lowest quartile and 54.0 per 1000 persons-year in the highest quartile (95% CI 48.2-59.8, P for trend < 0.001). In the multivariate models adjusted for clinical variables, HRs for the highest vs. lowest quartile of resistin was 1.52 (95% CI 1.20-1.93, P < 0.001) for « Hard » CHD events, 1.41 (95% CI 1.16-1.70, P = 0.001) for CHD events and 1.35 (95% CI 1.14-1.59, P = 0.002) for CVD events. Further adjustment for metabolic disease slightly reduced the associations while adjustment for inflammation markedly reduced the associations. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, higher resistin levels are associated with CVD events independently of clinical risk factors and metabolic disease markers, but markedly attenuated by inflammation.

A web-based tool to aid the identification of chemicals potentially posing a health risk through percutaneous exposure

Occupational hygiene practitioners typically assess the risk posed by occupational exposure by comparing exposure measurements to regulatory occupational exposure limits (OELs). In most jurisdictions, OELs are only available for exposure by the inhalation pathway. Skin notations are used to indicate substances for which dermal exposure may lead to health effects. However, these notations are either present or absent and provide no indication of acceptable levels of exposure. Furthermore, the methodology and framework for assigning skin notation differ widely across jurisdictions resulting in inconsistencies in the substances that carry notations. The UPERCUT tool was developed in response to these limitations. It helps occupational health stakeholders to assess the hazard associated with dermal exposure to chemicals. UPERCUT integrates dermal quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) and toxicological data to provide users with a skin hazard index called the dermal hazard ratio (DHR) for the substance and scenario of interest. The DHR is the ratio between the estimated 'received' dose and the 'acceptable' dose. The 'received' dose is estimated using physico-chemical data and information on the exposure scenario provided by the user (body parts exposure and exposure duration), and the 'acceptable' dose is estimated using inhalation OELs and toxicological data. The uncertainty surrounding the DHR is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation. Additional information on the selected substances includes intrinsic skin permeation potential of the substance and the existence of skin notations. UPERCUT is the only available tool that estimates the absorbed dose and compares this to an acceptable dose. In the absence of dermal OELs it provides a systematic and simple approach for screening dermal exposure scenarios for 1686 substances.