A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

How can we teach EBM in clinical practice? : an analysis of barriers to implementation of on-the-job EBM teaching and learning.

Introduction: Evidence-based medicine (EBM) improves the quality of health care. Courses on how to teach EBM in practice are available, but knowledge does not automatically imply its application in teaching. We aimed to identify and compare barriers and facilitators for teaching EBM in clinical practice in various European countries. Methods: A questionnaire was constructed listing potential barriers and facilitators for EBM teaching in clinical practice. Answers were reported on a 7-point Likert scale ranging from not at all being a barrier to being an insurmountable barrier. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 120 clinical EBM teachers from 11 countries. Lack of time was the strongest barrier for teaching EBM in practice (median 5). Moderate barriers were the lack of requirements for EBM skills and a pyramid hierarchy in health care management structure (median 4). In Germany, Hungary and Poland, reading and understanding articles in English was a higher barrier than in the other countries. Conclusion: Incorporation of teaching EBM in practice faces several barriers to implementation. Teaching EBM in clinical settings is most successful where EBM principles are culturally embedded and form part and parcel of everyday clinical decisions and medical practice.

Psychotropic drug-induced weight gain and other metabolic complications in a Swiss psychiatric population.

PURPOSE: To describe the weight gain-related side-effects of psychotropic drugs and their consequences on metabolic complications (hypercholesterolemia, obesity) in a Swiss cohort of psychiatric patients. METHOD: This cross-sectional observational study was performed in an out-patient psychiatric division with patients having received for more than 3 months the following drugs: clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, lithium, and/or valproate. Clinical measures and lifestyle information (smoking behaviour, physical activity) were recorded. RESULTS: 196 inclusions were completed. Weight gain (≥10% of initial weight) following drug treatment was reported in 47% of these patients. Prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30), hypercholesterolemia (≥6.2 mmol/L) and low HDL-cholesterol (<1.0 mmol/L in men, <1.3 mmol/L in women) were present in 38%, 21%, and 27% of patients, respectively. A higher standardised dose, an increase of appetite following medication introduction, the type of medication (clozapine or olanzapine > quetiapine or risperidone > lithium or valproate), and the gender were shown to be significantly associated with evolution of BMI. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of obesity and hypercholesterolemia was found in an out-patient psychiatric population and confirms drug-induced weight gain complications during long-term treatment. The results support the recently published recommendations of monitoring of metabolic side-effects during treatment with atypical antipsychotics. Moreover, the weight gain predictors found in the present study could help to highlight patients with special health care management requirement.