91 resultados para door-to-needle time


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OBJECTIVES: To determine characteristics associated with single and multiple fallers during postacute rehabilitation and to investigate the relationship among falls, rehabilitation outcomes, and health services use. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Geriatric postacute rehabilitation hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 4026) consecutively admitted over a 5-year period (2003-2007). MEASUREMENTS: All falls during hospitalization were prospectively recorded. Collected patients' characteristics included health, functional, cognitive, and affective status data. Length of stay and discharge destination were retrieved from the administrative database. RESULTS: During rehabilitation stay, 11.4% (458/4026) of patients fell once and an additional 6.3% (253/4026) fell several times. Compared with nonfallers, fallers were older and more frequently men. They were globally frailer, with lower Barthel score and more comorbidities, cognitive impairment, and depressive symptoms. In multivariate analyses, compared with 1-time fallers, multiple fallers were more likely to have lower Barthel score (adjOR: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.48-4.07; P = .001), cognitive impairment (adjOR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.04-1.96; P = .026), and to have been admitted from a medicine ward (adjOR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.03-2.32; P = .035). Odds of poor functional recovery and institutionalization at discharge, as well as length of stay, increased incrementally from nonfallers to 1-time and to multiple fallers. CONCLUSION: In these patients admitted to postacute rehabilitation, the proportion of fallers and multiple fallers was high. Multiple fallers were particularly at risk of poor functional recovery and increased health services use. Specific fall prevention programs targeting high-risk patients with cognitive impairment and low functional status should be developed in further studies.

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The prescribing of antibiotics for uncomplicated skin abscesses and diverticulitis has no benefit. Some antibiotics are more at risk of causing a Clostridium difficile infection. The tests used to exclude a history of a penicillin allergy are safe. A threshold of D-dimer adjusted for the age significantly improves the specificity of the test without affecting the sensitivity. The prescription of paraclinics tests is not an effective "treatment" for the patient's anxiety. In the sleep apnea syndrome, treatment with CPAP (Continuous positive airway pressure) appears to have more benefits compared to the mandibular advancement prosthesis. The work of primary care physicians can be supported by the work of advanced practice nurses. The limitation placed on the working hours of doctors in hospitals seems to affect their ability to spend time with their patients.

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The skin is privileged because several skin-derived stem cells (epithelial stem cells from epidermis and its appendages, mesenchymal stem cells from dermis and subcutis, melanocyte stem cells) can be efficiently captured for therapeutic use. Main indications remain the permanent coverage of extensive third degree burns and healing of chronic cutaneous wounds, but recent advances in gene therapy technology open the door to the treatment of disabling inherited skin diseases with genetically corrected keratinocyte stem cells. Therapeutic skin stem cells that were initially cultured in research or hospital laboratories must be produced according strict regulatory guidelines, which ensure patients and medical teams that the medicinal cell products are safe, of constant quality and manufactured according to state-of-the art technology. Nonetheless, it does not warrant clinical efficacy and permanent engraftment of autologous stem cells remains variable. There are many challenges ahead to improve efficacy among which to keep telomere-dependent senescence and telomere-independent senescence (clonal conversion) to a minimum in cell culture and to understand the cellular and molecular mechanisms implicated in engraftment. Finally, medicinal stem cells are expansive to produce and reimbursement of costs by health insurances is a major concern in many countries.

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Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

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A human in vivo toxicokinetic model was built to allow a better understanding of the toxicokinetics of folpet fungicide and its key ring biomarkers of exposure: phthalimide (PI), phthalamic acid (PAA) and phthalic acid (PA). Both PI and the sum of ring metabolites, expressed as PA equivalents (PAeq), may be used as biomarkers of exposure. The conceptual representation of the model was based on the analysis of the time course of these biomarkers in volunteers orally and dermally exposed to folpet. In the model, compartments were also used to represent the body burden of folpet and experimentally relevant PI, PAA and PA ring metabolites in blood and in key tissues as well as in excreta, hence urinary and feces. The time evolution of these biomarkers in each compartment of the model was then mathematically described by a system of coupled differential equations. The mathematical parameters of the model were then determined from best fits to the time courses of PI and PAeq in blood and urine of five volunteers administered orally 1 mg kg(-1) and dermally 10 mg kg(-1) of folpet. In the case of oral administration, the mean elimination half-life of PI from blood (through feces, urine or metabolism) was found to be 39.9 h as compared with 28.0 h for PAeq. In the case of a dermal application, mean elimination half-life of PI and PAeq was estimated to be 34.3 and 29.3 h, respectively. The average final fractions of administered dose recovered in urine as PI over the 0-96 h period were 0.030 and 0.002%, for oral and dermal exposure, respectively. Corresponding values for PAeq were 24.5 and 1.83%, respectively. Finally, the average clearance rate of PI from blood calculated from the oral and dermal data was 0.09 ± 0.03 and 0.13 ± 0.05 ml h(-1) while the volume of distribution was 4.30 ± 1.12 and 6.05 ± 2.22 l, respectively. It was not possible to obtain the corresponding values from PAeq data owing to the lack of blood time course data.

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INTRODUCTION: One quarter of osteoporotic fractures occur in men. TBS, a gray-level measurement derived from lumbar spine DXA image texture, is related to microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Previous studies reported the ability of spine TBS to predict osteoporotic fractures in women. Our aim was to evaluate the ability of TBS to predict clinical osteoporotic fractures in men. METHODS: 3620 men aged ≥50 (mean 67.6years) at the time of baseline DXA (femoral neck, spine) were identified from a database (Province of Manitoba, Canada). Health service records were assessed for the presence of non-traumatic osteoporotic fracture after BMD testing. Lumbar spine TBS was derived from spine DXA blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to analyze time to first fracture adjusted for clinical risk factors (FRAX without BMD), osteoporosis treatment and BMD (hip or spine). RESULTS: Mean followup was 4.5years. 183 (5.1%) men sustain major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 91 (2.5%) clinical vertebral fractures (CVF), and 46 (1.3%) hip fractures (HF). Correlation between spine BMD and spine TBS was modest (r=0.31), less than correlation between spine and hip BMD (r=0.63). Significantly lower spine TBS were found in fracture versus non-fracture men for MOF (p<0.001), HF (p<0.001) and CVF (p=0.003). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for incident fracture discrimination with TBS was significantly better than chance (MOF AUC=0.59, p<0.001; HF AUC=0.67, p<0.001; CVF AUC=0.57, p=0.032). TBS predicted MOF and HF (but not CVF) in models adjusted for FRAX without BMD and osteoporosis treatment. TBS remained a predictor of HF (but not MOF) after further adjustment for hip BMD or spine BMD. CONCLUSION: We observed that spine TBS predicted MOF and HF independently of the clinical FRAX score, HF independently of FRAX and BMD in men. Studies with more incident fractures are needed to confirm these findings.

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Cocaine-induced neuroadaptation of stress-related circuitry and increased access to cocaine each putatively contribute to the transition from cocaine use to cocaine dependence. The present study tested the hypothesis that rats receiving extended versus brief daily access to cocaine would exhibit regional differences in levels of the stress-regulatory neuropeptide corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF). A secondary goal was to explore how CRF levels change in relation to the time since cocaine self-administration. Male Wistar rats acquired operant self-administration of cocaine and were assigned to receive daily long access (6 hours/day, LgA, n = 20) or short access (1 hour/day, ShA, n = 18) to intravenous cocaine self-administration (fixed ratio 1, ∼0.50 mg/kg/infusion). After at least 3 weeks, tissue CRF immunoreactivity was measured at one of three timepoints: pre-session, post-session or 3 hours post-session. LgA, but not ShA, rats showed increased total session and first-hour cocaine intake. CRF immunoreactivity increased within the dorsal raphe (DR) and basolateral, but not central, nucleus of the amygdala (BLA, CeA) of ShA rats from pre-session to 3 hours post-session. In LgA rats, CRF immunoreactivity increased from pre-session to 3 hours post-session within the CeA and DR but tended to decrease in the BLA. LgA rats showed higher CRF levels than ShA rats in the DR and, pre-session, in the BLA. Thus, voluntary cocaine intake engages stress-regulatory CRF systems of the DR and amygdala. Increased availability of cocaine promotes greater tissue CRF levels in these extrahypothalamic brain regions, changes associated here with a model of cocaine dependence.

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BACKGROUND: Guidelines surrounding maternal contact with the stillborn infant have been contradictory over the past thirty years. Most studies have reported that seeing and holding the stillborn baby is associated with fewer anxiety and depressive symptoms among mothers of stillborn babies than not doing so. In contrast, others studies suggest that contact with the stillborn infant can lead to poorer maternal mental health outcomes. There is a lack of research focusing on the maternal experience of this contact. The present study aimed to investigate how mothers describe their experience of spending time with their stillborn baby and how they felt retrospectively about the decision they made to see and hold their baby or not. METHOD: In depth interviews were conducted with twenty-one mothers three months after stillbirth. All mothers had decided to see and the majority to hold their baby. Qualitative analysis of the interview data was performed using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis. RESULTS: Six superordinate themes were identified: Characteristics of Contact, Physicality; Emotional Experience; Surreal Experience; Finality; and Decision. Having contact with their stillborn infant provided mothers with time to process what had happened, to build memories, and to 'say goodbye', often sharing the experience with partners and other family members. The majority of mothers felt satisfied with their decision to spend time with their stillborn baby. Several mothers talked about their fear of seeing a damaged or dead body. Some mothers experienced strong disbelief and dissociation during the contact. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that preparation before contact with the baby, professional support during the contact, and professional follow-up are crucial in order to prevent the development of maternal mental health problems. Fears of seeing a damaged or dead body should be sensitively explored and ways of coping discussed. Even in cases where mothers experienced intense distress during the contact with their stillborn baby, they still described that having had this contact was important and that they had taken the right decision. This indicates a need for giving parents an informed choice by engaging in discussions about the possible benefits and risks of seeing their stillborn baby.

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Molecular docking softwares are one of the important tools of modern drug development pipelines. The promising achievements of the last 10 years emphasize the need for further improvement, as reflected by several recent publications (Leach et al., J Med Chem 2006, 49, 5851; Warren et al., J Med Chem 2006, 49, 5912). Our initial approach, EADock, showed a good performance in reproducing the experimental binding modes for a set of 37 different ligand-protein complexes (Grosdidier et al., Proteins 2007, 67, 1010). This article presents recent improvements regarding the scoring and sampling aspects over the initial implementation, as well as a new seeding procedure based on the detection of cavities, opening the door to blind docking with EADock. These enhancements were validated on 260 complexes taken from the high quality Ligand Protein Database [LPDB, (Roche et al., J Med Chem 2001, 44, 3592)]. Two issues were identified: first, the quality of the initial structures cannot be assumed and a manual inspection and/or a search in the literature are likely to be required to achieve the best performance. Second the description of interactions involving metal ions still has to be improved. Nonetheless, a remarkable success rate of 65% was achieved for a large scale blind docking assay, when considering only the top ranked binding mode and a success threshold of 2 A RMSD to the crystal structure. When looking at the five-top ranked binding modes, the success rate increases up to 76%. In a standard local docking assay, success rates of 75 and 83% were obtained, considering only the top ranked binding mode, or the five top binding modes, respectively.

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BACKGROUND: Analyses of brain responses to external stimuli are typically based on the means computed across conditions. However in many cognitive and clinical applications, taking into account their variability across trials has turned out to be statistically more sensitive than comparing their means. NEW METHOD: In this study we present a novel implementation of a single-trial topographic analysis (STTA) for discriminating auditory evoked potentials at predefined time-windows. This analysis has been previously introduced for extracting spatio-temporal features at the level of the whole neural response. Adapting the STTA on specific time windows is an essential step for comparing its performance to other time-window based algorithms. RESULTS: We analyzed responses to standard vs. deviant sounds and showed that the new implementation of the STTA gives above-chance decoding results in all subjects (in comparison to 7 out of 11 with the original method). In comatose patients, the improvement of the decoding performance was even more pronounced than in healthy controls and doubled the number of significant results. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHOD(S): We compared the results obtained with the new STTA to those based on a logistic regression in healthy controls and patients. We showed that the first of these two comparisons provided a better performance of the logistic regression; however only the new STTA provided significant results in comatose patients at group level. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide quantitative evidence that a systematic investigation of the accuracy of established methods in normal and clinical population is an essential step for optimizing decoding performance.

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While problematic Internet use is recognized to be predominant among male adolescents, a female trend is gradually becoming apparent. Our study aimed at investigating the characteristics of female Internet users and distinguishing between the online activities of problematic and regular Internet users' on school days. Data were retrieved from a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 3067 8th graders in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, that completed an online questionnaire in 2012. Only females were included. Based on the Internet addiction test, the sample was divided into regular (RUs) (IAT < 50, n = 1339) and problematic users (PIUs) (IAT ≥ 50, n = 201). Groups were compared regarding sociodemographic variables, online activities, devices used to access the Internet, substance use, and physical activity. Significant variables were included in a backward logistic regression. At the multivariate level, PIUs were more prone to spend time online for leisure activities (odds ratio [OR] 2.38) and to access the Internet through a smartphone (OR 1.79) or tablet (OR 1.84). PIUs were less likely to be physically active (OR 0.86) and more likely to present poor emotional well-being (OR 2.67) and to smoke (OR 1.88). CONCLUSION: A sizeable percentage of female adolescents are problematic Internet users. When performing a comprehensive biopsychosocial assessment, teenagers owning numerous devices to access the Internet, presenting other health-compromising behaviors or poor emotional well-being should be specifically targeted. WHAT IS KNOWN: ? Problematic Internet use has been found to be predominant among males. ? Specific online activities have been identified as being addictive for young men and women differently. ? Problematic Internet use is known to impact in several ways the general health and daily functioning of teenagers. What is New: ? A sizeable percentage of female adolescents are problematic Internet users. ? Tobacco use, poor well-being, as well as compact devices to access the Internet are positively related to problematic Internet use. ? In addition to their special interest in online social and communicational activities, female problematic Internet users also reported more online gambling.

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The mammalian circadian timing system consists of a central pacemaker in the brain's suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) and subsidiary oscillators in nearly all body cells. The SCN clock, which is adjusted to geophysical time by the photoperiod, synchronizes peripheral clocks through a wide variety of systemic cues. The latter include signals depending on feeding cycles, glucocorticoid hormones, rhythmic blood-borne signals eliciting daily changes in actin dynamics and serum response factor (SRF) activity, and sensors of body temperature rhythms, such as heat shock transcription factors and the cold-inducible RNA-binding protein CIRP. To study these systemic signalling pathways, we designed and engineered a novel, highly photosensitive apparatus, dubbed RT-Biolumicorder. This device enables us to record circadian luciferase reporter gene expression in the liver and other organs of freely moving mice over months in real time. Owing to the multitude of systemic signalling pathway involved in the phase resetting of peripheral clocks the disruption of any particular one has only minor effects on the steady state phase of circadian gene expression in organs such as the liver. Nonetheless, the implication of specific pathways in the synchronization of clock gene expression can readily be assessed by monitoring the phase-shifting kinetics using the RT-Biolumicorder.

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Tissue engineering is a popular topic in peripheral nerve repair. Combining a nerve conduit with supporting adipose-derived cells could offer an opportunity to prevent time-consuming Schwann cell culture or the use of an autograft with its donor site morbidity and eventually improve clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to provide a broad overview over promising transplantable cells under equal experimental conditions over a long-term period. A 10-mm gap in the sciatic nerve of female Sprague-Dawley rats (7 groups of 7 animals, 8 weeks old) was bridged through a biodegradable fibrin conduit filled with rat adipose-derived stem cells (rASCs), differentiated rASCs (drASCs), human (h)ASCs from the superficial and deep abdominal layer, human stromal vascular fraction (SVF), or rat Schwann cells, respectively. As a control, we resutured a nerve segment as an autograft. Long-term evaluation was carried out after 12 weeks comprising walking track, morphometric, and MRI analyses. The sciatic functional index was calculated. Cross sections of the nerve, proximal, distal, and in between the two sutures, were analyzed for re-/myelination and axon count. Gastrocnemius muscle weights were compared. MRI proved biodegradation of the conduit. Differentiated rat ASCs performed significantly better than undifferentiated rASCs with less muscle atrophy and superior functional results. Superficial hASCs supported regeneration better than deep hASCs, in line with published in vitro data. The best regeneration potential was achieved by the drASC group when compared with other adipose tissue-derived cells. Considering the ease of procedure from harvesting to transplanting, we conclude that comparison of promising cells for nerve regeneration revealed that particularly differentiated ASCs could be a clinically translatable route toward new methods to enhance peripheral nerve repair.

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Notre consommation en eau souterraine, en particulier comme eau potable ou pour l'irrigation, a considérablement augmenté au cours des années. De nombreux problèmes font alors leur apparition, allant de la prospection de nouvelles ressources à la remédiation des aquifères pollués. Indépendamment du problème hydrogéologique considéré, le principal défi reste la caractérisation des propriétés du sous-sol. Une approche stochastique est alors nécessaire afin de représenter cette incertitude en considérant de multiples scénarios géologiques et en générant un grand nombre de réalisations géostatistiques. Nous rencontrons alors la principale limitation de ces approches qui est le coût de calcul dû à la simulation des processus d'écoulements complexes pour chacune de ces réalisations. Dans la première partie de la thèse, ce problème est investigué dans le contexte de propagation de l'incertitude, oú un ensemble de réalisations est identifié comme représentant les propriétés du sous-sol. Afin de propager cette incertitude à la quantité d'intérêt tout en limitant le coût de calcul, les méthodes actuelles font appel à des modèles d'écoulement approximés. Cela permet l'identification d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations représentant la variabilité de l'ensemble initial. Le modèle complexe d'écoulement est alors évalué uniquement pour ce sousensemble, et, sur la base de ces réponses complexes, l'inférence est faite. Notre objectif est d'améliorer la performance de cette approche en utilisant toute l'information à disposition. Pour cela, le sous-ensemble de réponses approximées et exactes est utilisé afin de construire un modèle d'erreur, qui sert ensuite à corriger le reste des réponses approximées et prédire la réponse du modèle complexe. Cette méthode permet de maximiser l'utilisation de l'information à disposition sans augmentation perceptible du temps de calcul. La propagation de l'incertitude est alors plus précise et plus robuste. La stratégie explorée dans le premier chapitre consiste à apprendre d'un sous-ensemble de réalisations la relation entre les modèles d'écoulement approximé et complexe. Dans la seconde partie de la thèse, cette méthodologie est formalisée mathématiquement en introduisant un modèle de régression entre les réponses fonctionnelles. Comme ce problème est mal posé, il est nécessaire d'en réduire la dimensionnalité. Dans cette optique, l'innovation du travail présenté provient de l'utilisation de l'analyse en composantes principales fonctionnelles (ACPF), qui non seulement effectue la réduction de dimensionnalités tout en maximisant l'information retenue, mais permet aussi de diagnostiquer la qualité du modèle d'erreur dans cet espace fonctionnel. La méthodologie proposée est appliquée à un problème de pollution par une phase liquide nonaqueuse et les résultats obtenus montrent que le modèle d'erreur permet une forte réduction du temps de calcul tout en estimant correctement l'incertitude. De plus, pour chaque réponse approximée, une prédiction de la réponse complexe est fournie par le modèle d'erreur. Le concept de modèle d'erreur fonctionnel est donc pertinent pour la propagation de l'incertitude, mais aussi pour les problèmes d'inférence bayésienne. Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC) sont les algorithmes les plus communément utilisés afin de générer des réalisations géostatistiques en accord avec les observations. Cependant, ces méthodes souffrent d'un taux d'acceptation très bas pour les problèmes de grande dimensionnalité, résultant en un grand nombre de simulations d'écoulement gaspillées. Une approche en deux temps, le "MCMC en deux étapes", a été introduite afin d'éviter les simulations du modèle complexe inutiles par une évaluation préliminaire de la réalisation. Dans la troisième partie de la thèse, le modèle d'écoulement approximé couplé à un modèle d'erreur sert d'évaluation préliminaire pour le "MCMC en deux étapes". Nous démontrons une augmentation du taux d'acceptation par un facteur de 1.5 à 3 en comparaison avec une implémentation classique de MCMC. Une question reste sans réponse : comment choisir la taille de l'ensemble d'entrainement et comment identifier les réalisations permettant d'optimiser la construction du modèle d'erreur. Cela requiert une stratégie itérative afin que, à chaque nouvelle simulation d'écoulement, le modèle d'erreur soit amélioré en incorporant les nouvelles informations. Ceci est développé dans la quatrième partie de la thèse, oú cette méthodologie est appliquée à un problème d'intrusion saline dans un aquifère côtier. -- Our consumption of groundwater, in particular as drinking water and for irrigation, has considerably increased over the years and groundwater is becoming an increasingly scarce and endangered resource. Nofadays, we are facing many problems ranging from water prospection to sustainable management and remediation of polluted aquifers. Independently of the hydrogeological problem, the main challenge remains dealing with the incomplete knofledge of the underground properties. Stochastic approaches have been developed to represent this uncertainty by considering multiple geological scenarios and generating a large number of realizations. The main limitation of this approach is the computational cost associated with performing complex of simulations in each realization. In the first part of the thesis, we explore this issue in the context of uncertainty propagation, where an ensemble of geostatistical realizations is identified as representative of the subsurface uncertainty. To propagate this lack of knofledge to the quantity of interest (e.g., the concentration of pollutant in extracted water), it is necessary to evaluate the of response of each realization. Due to computational constraints, state-of-the-art methods make use of approximate of simulation, to identify a subset of realizations that represents the variability of the ensemble. The complex and computationally heavy of model is then run for this subset based on which inference is made. Our objective is to increase the performance of this approach by using all of the available information and not solely the subset of exact responses. Two error models are proposed to correct the approximate responses follofing a machine learning approach. For the subset identified by a classical approach (here the distance kernel method) both the approximate and the exact responses are knofn. This information is used to construct an error model and correct the ensemble of approximate responses to predict the "expected" responses of the exact model. The proposed methodology makes use of all the available information without perceptible additional computational costs and leads to an increase in accuracy and robustness of the uncertainty propagation. The strategy explored in the first chapter consists in learning from a subset of realizations the relationship between proxy and exact curves. In the second part of this thesis, the strategy is formalized in a rigorous mathematical framework by defining a regression model between functions. As this problem is ill-posed, it is necessary to reduce its dimensionality. The novelty of the work comes from the use of functional principal component analysis (FPCA), which not only performs the dimensionality reduction while maximizing the retained information, but also allofs a diagnostic of the quality of the error model in the functional space. The proposed methodology is applied to a pollution problem by a non-aqueous phase-liquid. The error model allofs a strong reduction of the computational cost while providing a good estimate of the uncertainty. The individual correction of the proxy response by the error model leads to an excellent prediction of the exact response, opening the door to many applications. The concept of functional error model is useful not only in the context of uncertainty propagation, but also, and maybe even more so, to perform Bayesian inference. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms are the most common choice to ensure that the generated realizations are sampled in accordance with the observations. Hofever, this approach suffers from lof acceptance rate in high dimensional problems, resulting in a large number of wasted of simulations. This led to the introduction of two-stage MCMC, where the computational cost is decreased by avoiding unnecessary simulation of the exact of thanks to a preliminary evaluation of the proposal. In the third part of the thesis, a proxy is coupled to an error model to provide an approximate response for the two-stage MCMC set-up. We demonstrate an increase in acceptance rate by a factor three with respect to one-stage MCMC results. An open question remains: hof do we choose the size of the learning set and identify the realizations to optimize the construction of the error model. This requires devising an iterative strategy to construct the error model, such that, as new of simulations are performed, the error model is iteratively improved by incorporating the new information. This is discussed in the fourth part of the thesis, in which we apply this methodology to a problem of saline intrusion in a coastal aquifer.

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BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies for mental disorders may vary according to illness stage. However no data currently exist to guide treatment in first episode psychotic mania. The aim of this study was to compare the safety and efficacy profile of chlorpromazine and olanzapine, as add-on to lithium, in patients with a first episode of psychotic mania, expecting better safety profile and adherence to olanzapine but similar efficacy for both treatments. METHODS: Data from 83 patients were collected in an 8-week randomised controlled trial on clinical variables, side effects, vital signs, and weight. Analyses of treatment differences over time were based on intent-to-treat principles. Kaplan-Meier estimated survival curves were used to analyse time-to-event data and mixed effects models repeated measures analysis of variance were used to determine treatment group differences over time on safety and efficacy measures. RESULTS: Ethics committee approval to delay informed consent procedure until recovery from the acute episode allowed the inclusion of 83 patients highly representative of those treated in the public sector. Contrary to our hypotheses, safety profile of both medications was similar. A signal for higher rate (P=.032) and earlier occurrence (P=.043) of mania remission was observed in the olanzapine group which did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: Olanzapine and chlorpromazine have a similar safety profile in a uniquely representative cohort of patients with first episode psychotic mania. The possibility for a greater impact of olanzapine on manic symptoms leading to earlier remission of the episode needs exploration in a large sample.